Jalen McMillan Fantasy Overview

An Abbreviated 2025

An August neck injury cost McMillan the first 13 games of last season. He caught 12 balls for 178 yards over the final four. That included a 7-114-0 line in a Week 17 loss to the Dolphins.

McMillan Flashed As A Rookie

McMillan won Tampa Bay’s No. 3 WR job behind stalwarts Mike Evans and Chris Godwin as a rookie in 2024

He caught 37 balls for 461 yards and 8 TDs that year, finishing 49th among WRs in PPR points per game. McMillan ranked just sixth on that Bucs team in catches and fourth in receiving yards, but only Evans caught more TDs.

McMillan’s seven end-zone targets also ranked second on the Bucs and tied for 42nd among all WRs. He converted four of those into scores.

He Was Especially Good Late

McMillan closed his rookie year strong, taking on an increased role with Godwin out. Over his final six games, McMillan totaled:

• 35 targets (19.3% share)
• 26 catches
• 357 receiving yards
• 7 TDs

He ranked 18th among WRs in PPR points per game over that stretch. That was largely fueled by the big TD total, but he also ranked inside the top 31 WRs in catches and yards during that span.

McMillan ranked 26th among 104 qualifying WRs in yards per route (1.90) over those final six games.

McMillan Was A Promising Prospect

McMillan entered the NFL with a nice resume.

The Buccaneers selected him in the third round in 2024 after a productive career at Washington.

An MCL sprain hampered his senior season. But McMillan had already broken out as a junior, racking up 79 catches for 1,098 yards and 9 TDs.

That production came on a Washington team that also featured Rome Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk. McMillan actually led that trio in receptions and TDs in 2022.

The 6’1, 197-pounder tested as a high-level athlete at the Combine. His 4.47-second 40-yard dash and 37-inch vertical helped him earn an 86th-percentile Relative Athletic Score.

Can He Stay Healthy?

Injuries have been an issue for McMillan throughout his career. He missed three games at the end of his 2020 freshman season with an ankle injury and one game in 2021 with a hand injury. Then came the 2023 MCL sprain that cost McMillan four games and limited him in a few more.

Hamstring trouble cost McMillan four games of his rookie season. He originally went down in practice in September and missed two games. He aggravated the issue in November and missed two more contests.

And McMillan’s most serious injury came last August when he fractured three vertebrae in his neck in a preseason game. He was sidelined until December.

Projected Role & Competition

WR Mike Evans’ departure leaves behind a big opportunity.

Injuries limited him to a 30-368-3 receiving line across eight games last year, but Evans averaged 76.0 catches, 1,153 yards, and 9.5 TDs across his first 11 seasons in Tampa Bay. Evans’ role near the end zone is particularly interesting considering the TD upside McMillan flashed as a rookie.

He’ll be competing for snaps and targets with WRs Emeka Egbuka, Chris Godwin, and Ted Hurst.

Egbuka is coming off an up-then-down rookie season. He averaged 89.0 yards and 1.0 TDs over his first five games but just 41.1 yards and 0.1 TDs over his final 12. A Week 6 hamstring injury was at least partly to blame. The 19th overall pick of 2024 is the favorite to lead Tampa Bay in targets this season.

Godwin struggled returning from 2024’s dislocated ankle last year, mustering just 33 catches across nine games. But he averaged 82.3 yards per game in 2024 and topped 1,000 yards in the three seasons before that. The 30-year-old is capable of bouncing back this year. He’s expected to be Tampa’s primary slot receiver.

That likely leaves third-round rookie Hurst as McMillan’s main competition for outside snaps. Hurst is an intriguing prospect, a 6'4, 206-pounder with 99th-percentile athleticism and strong production over the last two seasons. But he's making an even bigger jump in competition than your average rookie after playing at Valdosta State and Georgia State.

We’re expecting McMillan to fend off Hurst this summer, but it’ll be a situation to watch in training camp and preseason.

Supporting Cast

QB Baker Mayfield returns for his fourth season as Bucs starter. He has sandwiched a huge 4,500-yard, 41-TD 2024 season between two mediocre seasons.

Among 42 QBs with 150+ pass attempts last year, Mayfield ranked:

• 27th in completion rate
• 32nd in adjusted completion rate
• 26th in completion rate over expected
• 25th in yards per pass attempt
• 33rd in Pro Football Focus pass grade

A bounce-back season from Mayfield would certainly help McMillan’s breakout chances.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

The Buccaneers canned OC Josh Grizzard after the season, replacing him with Zac Robinson.

Robinson spent five seasons working under Sean McVay in Los Angeles before serving as Falcons OC for the last two. Atlanta ranked sixth in yards and 13th in points in a Kirk Cousins-led offense in Robinson's debut. The Falcons fell to 14th in yards and 24th in points this past year, with worse QB play from Michael Penix and then Cousins.

Both of Robinson’s Atlanta offenses leaned run:

There’s no Bijan Robinson in Tampa Bay, though, so we expect Robinson to shift at least a bit toward the pass. We project this as a balanced offense in 2026.

Paths To Ceiling

Evans is gone, Egbuka struggled over the final two-thirds of his rookie season, and Godwin is 30 and coming off an ugly 2025.

If even one of Egbuka or Godwin falters this year, McMillan could find himself playing a big role in a capable offense. That’d give him WR3 upside.

Risk Factors

McMillan remains largely unproven, with just 17 games on his NFL resume. Egbuka and Godwin are capable of controlling Bucs targets this season. And McMillan isn’t even a lock to beat out rookie WR Ted Hurst.

It’s possible that he ends up as an afterthought for the Bucs and fantasy teams.