Emeka Egbuka Fantasy Overview

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Over his first five games, Egbuka averaged 5.0 catches, 89.0 yards, and 1.0 TDs per game. Only two WRs averaged more PPR points per game during that stretch.

But over his final 12 games, Egbuka sank to 3.2 catches, 41.1 yards, and 0.1 TDs per game, ranking 57th among WRs.

It got even worse for him over the final five games: 2.2 catches, 29.4 yards, and no scores. Egbuka finished outside the top 60 WRs in PPR points in four of those five weeks.

Usage & Role

Egbuka drew 127 targets on a 22.8% share across his 17 games. Those marks ranked ninth and 18th, respectively, among WRs.

Unlike his fantasy scoring, his volume stayed relatively flat from those first five games to the final 12:

Egbuka ranked 15th at the position in expected PPR points per game.

Efficiency & Regression

Egbuka was the fourth biggest underachiever at his position, scoring 11.4 PPR points per game on 14.0 expected points per game. His 49.6% catch rate ranked 72nd among 76 WRs with 50+ targets.

Egbuka wasn’t solely to blame. His 13.2 average target depth ranked 18th-highest among those 76 WRs, and deeper targets naturally come with lower catch rates. His 63.8% catchable-target rate ranked third-lowest among that group.

That poor catchable-target rate was a major driver of his production drop over the final two-thirds of the season. A whopping 86.8% of Egbuka’s targets were deemed catchable over his first five games, compared with just 53.9% over the final 12.

Egbuka’s 1.75 yards per route on the season ranked 29th among 76 qualifying WRs. He was worse in film-based metrics:

• 46th in Fantasy Points’ separation score
• 48th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
• 74th in ESPN receiver score

Offensive Context

The 2025 Buccaneers finished:

• 13th in plays
• 21st in total yards
• 25th in yards per play
• 18th in points

It was a balanced offense in terms of play calling, ranking 17th in pass rate and 18th in pass rate over expected.

WR injuries were a major factor. Egbuka played all 17 games, but:

• Mike Evans missed Weeks 4, 5, and 6 with a hamstring injury and weeks 8-14 with a concussion and broken collarbone.
• Godwin missed the first three games recovering from his 2024 ankle injury and then missed weeks 6-11 with a fibula injury.

The trio only played together for the final four games. Over that span, Egbuka averaged just:

• 4.3 targets
• 2.3 catches
• 14.7 yards
• 0 TDs

Historical Production & Trends

Egbuka was the 19th overall pick of the 2024 draft after setting an Ohio State record with 205 career catches. He broke out with a 74-1,151-10 line as a sophomore, finishing just behind fellow sophomore Marvin Harrison Jr. in all three categories.

An October high-ankle sprain led to a down 2023. But Egbuka bounced back for an 81-1,011-10 line in 2024. He led the Buckeyes in receptions and finished second to super freshman Jeremiah Smith in yards and TDs.

Injury History & Durability

Egbuka played all 17 games last year but suffered a hamstring injury in Week 6. That, probably not coincidentally, was when his production went south.

Egbuka suffered that aforementioned high-ankle sprain in October 2023. He had tightrope surgery and returned about a month later.

Egbuka was otherwise healthy at Ohio State.

Projected Role & Competition

Evans’ departure to San Francisco leaves behind a big opportunity.

Injuries limited him to a 30-368-3 receiving line across eight games last year. But Evans averaged 76.0 catches, 1,153 yards, and 9.5 TDs across his first 11 seasons in Tampa Bay.

The Bucs return Godwin, who struggled off 2024’s dislocated ankle, mustering just 33 catches across nine games. But he averaged 82.3 yards per game in 2024 and topped 1,000 yards in three straight seasons before that. The 30-year-old is capable of bouncing back this year.

Tampa Bay also returns WR Jalen McMillan, who’s flashed across two NFL seasons, and added WR Ted Hurst in Round 3 of this spring’s draft.

There’s depth here but also an opportunity for Egbuka to emerge as the Bucs’ clear No. 1 WR.

He’d also benefit from more short and intermediate routes. Egbuka was his most productive and efficient in those ranges in college. Here’s how his yardage and Pro Football Focus receiving grades broke down from 2022-2024:

Compare that to last year, when 40.7% of his yardage came on deep targets (vs. 26.7% on short and 32.6% on intermediate).

Supporting Cast

QB Baker Mayfield returns for his fourth season as Bucs starter. He has sandwiched a huge 4,500-yard, 41-TD 2024 season between two mediocre seasons.

Among 42 QBs with 150+ pass attempts last year, Mayfield ranked:

• 27th in completion rate
• 32nd in adjusted completion rate
• 26th in completion rate over expected
• 25th in yards per pass attempt
• 33rd in Pro Football Focus pass grade

He was notably more efficient over the first six weeks, when Egbuka was also most productive:

A bounce back from Mayfield this year would help Egbuka.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

The Buccaneers canned OC Josh Grizzard after the season, replacing him with Zac Robinson.

Robinson spent five seasons working under Sean McVay in Los Angeles before serving as Falcons OC for the last two. Atlanta ranked sixth in yards and 13th in points in a Kirk Cousins-led offense in Robinson's debut. The Falcons fell to 14th in yards and 24th in points this past year, with worse QB play from Michael Penix and then Cousins.

Both of Robinson’s Atlanta offenses leaned run:

There’s no Bijan Robinson in Tampa Bay, though, so we expect Robinson to shift at least a bit toward the pass. We project this as a balanced offense in 2026.

Paths To Ceiling

Evans’ departure gives Egbuka a path to emerge as Tampa Bay’s No. 1 WR. If he can rediscover the efficiency he flashed early last season, he could flirt with WR1 production.

Risk Factors

We saw Egbuka’s floor over the final two-thirds of last year, when he and Mayfield struggled to connect. If that continues, and the Bucs get more than they did last year from Godwin and McMillan, Egbuka could be just a volatile WR3 for fantasy squads.