Bottom Line

Pittman has been a good player through three seasons. He’s not a target hog but draws enough target share to sit in the high-WR3 to low-WR2 range. It’s tough to get excited about his upside relative to others around him this year, though.

Indy figures to throw less this year than last. That means Pittman will need improved QB play and a deeper aDOT to help boost his efficiency.

We’re not betting on high-level passing efficiency from Anthony Richardson (right away) or Gardner Minshew. So that knocks Pittman down our WR rankings vs. others near him in ADP. You’ll be able to find better options for both floor and ceiling.

What We Learned Last Year

• Pittman didn’t suffer for volume in last year’s struggling offense. He ranked 16th among WRs in target share, with a number slightly higher than the one that landed him 14th in 2021.
• He also increased his catch rate for the second straight season, snagging 70.2% of those opportunities to finish 10th in the league in receptions.
• Poor QB play hurt Pittman’s efficiency, though. He lost 3.0 off his yards per catch (from 12.3 to 9.3) primarily thanks to his average depth of target falling by more than 2 yards.
• Matt Ryan ranked 28th among QBs in Pro Football Focus passing grade last season. Sam Ehlinger and Nick Foles graded out even worse.
• Despite the career-low aDOT, Pittman also posted a career-low yards after catch per reception, which was also likely affected by the poor QB play.
• Among 97 WRs who drew 40+ targets, Pittman ranked just 44th in PFF receiving grade and tied for 53rd in yards per route. Those were down from 18th and 19th in 2021.
• He ranked 26th at the position in targets per route. That matched Pittman’s ranking for 2021.

What to Expect in 2023

• Indy’s QB play probably won’t get worse in 2023. How much better can it get? We’ll see.
  • The Colts clearly view Anthony Richardson as their future at the position. Opinions vary widely on how soon he should begin that starting run. He split first-team reps with Gardner Minshew right away.
  • Minshew has had promising turns in Jacksonville and Philadelphia. But he couldn’t keep the Jaguars job after starting for most of his rookie season (2019). And he managed only a one-year, $3.5 million deal this offseason in a QB market that found much more money for Taylor Heinicke and Jacoby Brissett.
• Pittman doesn’t appear to face more competition for targets than last year.
  • Alec Pierce figures to develop further in Year 2 and should do better than tying for 80th among WRs in target share.
  • Indy let Parris Campbell walk for a one-year deal in free agency. The team signed WR Isaiah McKenzie to a small, one-year pact and drafted WR Josh Downs in Round 3. Neither player looks like a threat to Pittman’s numbers for the short or long term.
• Bet on the Colts passing less than they did in 2022, when they threw at the league’s 10th-highest rate. Winning more than four games this time would shift more plays to runs. Richardson and a healthier Jonathan Taylor will also mean more rushes.
  • Expect that to shave some of Pittman’s target volume.
• Pittman could make up some of that by working deeper downfield. His aDOTs went longer in each of his first two seasons than last year. And according to PFF, he worked even deeper in college.
  • Pittman’s 8.8-yard aDOT through three NFL seasons sits 4.0 short of his 12.8 career college aDOT.
  • Richardson’s best passing last season came in the deep range. Don’t be surprised if Pittman sees a decline in catch rate but a significant increase in yards per catch.
  • Even Minshew has a career aDOT (8.2) longer than what Matt Ryan posted the past two seasons (7.8 and 6.5).