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Michael Pittman Jr. - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsMichael Pittman Jr.'s Basic Stats

Michael Pittman Jr.
ADP: 7.6
Bye: 11
Experience: 3 Yr(s)
Age: 25.9
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 223
40 Time: 4.52
Speed Score: 111.20
SPARQx (Rank): 112.10 (74%)
Burst Score (Rank): 122.60 (58%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.10 (67%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.29 (89%)

Michael Pittman Jr.'s Weekly Outlook

Week 3 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
5.8 59.2 0.4 8.3
Weekly Writeup
This Colts' passing offense funnels through Pittman Jr., with or without QB Anthony Richardson (concussion) in the lineup. The veteran wideout ranks t-third in target share (32.9%) among all NFL WRs through two weeks. Even in the second half of Week 2 vs. the Texans, Pittman Jr. saw 6 of his 12 targets with QB Gardner Minshew under center. Fantasy managers can be trustworthy of Pittman Jr. as a quality WR2 in lineups this week against the Ravens.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.7 64.9 0.4 8.9

Michael Pittman Jr.'s 2023 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#40 Wide Receiver

124.3 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
7.6 76 895.1 5.8 2.2 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsMichael Pittman Jr.'s Preseason Player Analysis

View WR Fantasy Rankings »
Bottom Line

Pittman has been a good player through three seasons. He’s not a target hog but draws enough target share to sit in the high-WR3 to low-WR2 range. It’s tough to get excited about his upside relative to others around him this year, though.

Indy figures to throw less this year than last. That means Pittman will need improved QB play and a deeper aDOT to help boost his efficiency.

We’re not betting on high-level passing efficiency from Anthony Richardson (right away) or Gardner Minshew. So that knocks Pittman down our WR rankings vs. others near him in ADP. You’ll be able to find better options for both floor and ceiling.

What We Learned Last Year
  • Pittman didn’t suffer for volume in last year’s struggling offense. He ranked 16th among WRs in target share, with a number slightly higher than the one that landed him 14th in 2021.
  • He also increased his catch rate for the second straight season, snagging 70.2% of those opportunities to finish 10th in the league in receptions.
  • Poor QB play hurt Pittman’s efficiency, though. He lost 3.0 off his yards per catch (from 12.3 to 9.3) primarily thanks to his average depth of target falling by more than 2 yards.
  • Matt Ryan ranked 28th among QBs in Pro Football Focus passing grade last season. Sam Ehlinger and Nick Foles graded out even worse.
  • Despite the career-low aDOT, Pittman also posted a career-low yards after catch per reception, which was also likely affected by the poor QB play.
  • Among 97 WRs who drew 40+ targets, Pittman ranked just 44th in PFF receiving grade and tied for 53rd in yards per route. Those were down from 18th and 19th in 2021.
  • He ranked 26th at the position in targets per route. That matched Pittman’s ranking for 2021.
What to Expect in 2023
  • Indy’s QB play probably won’t get worse in 2023. How much better can it get? We’ll see.
    • The Colts clearly view Anthony Richardson as their future at the position. Opinions vary widely on how soon he should begin that starting run. He split first-team reps with Gardner Minshew right away.
    • Minshew has had promising turns in Jacksonville and Philadelphia. But he couldn’t keep the Jaguars job after starting for most of his rookie season (2019). And he managed only a one-year, $3.5 million deal this offseason in a QB market that found much more money for Taylor Heinicke and Jacoby Brissett.
  • Pittman doesn’t appear to face more competition for targets than last year.
    • Alec Pierce figures to develop further in Year 2 and should do better than tying for 80th among WRs in target share.
    • Indy let Parris Campbell walk for a one-year deal in free agency. The team signed WR Isaiah McKenzie to a small, one-year pact and drafted WR Josh Downs in Round 3. Neither player looks like a threat to Pittman’s numbers for the short or long term.
  • Bet on the Colts passing less than they did in 2022, when they threw at the league’s 10th-highest rate. Winning more than four games this time would shift more plays to runs. Richardson and a healthier Jonathan Taylor will also mean more rushes.
    • Expect that to shave some of Pittman’s target volume.
  • Pittman could make up some of that by working deeper downfield. His aDOTs went longer in each of his first two seasons than last year. And according to PFF, he worked even deeper in college.
    • Pittman’s 8.8-yard aDOT through three NFL seasons sits 4.0 short of his 12.8 career college aDOT.
    • Richardson’s best passing last season came in the deep range. Don’t be surprised if Pittman sees a decline in catch rate but a significant increase in yards per catch.
    • Even Minshew has a career aDOT (8.2) longer than what Matt Ryan posted the past two seasons (7.8 and 6.5).

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Anthony Richardson, QB IND

14 hours ago

Anthony Richardson ruled out for Week 3

Colts QB Anthony Richardson (concussion) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game vs. the Ravens. We’ll see if the rookie can get cleared for Week 4. Richardson will be replaced by QB Gardner Minshew, who played well in relief last week and has experience in HC Shane Steichen’s offense from their time together in Philadelphia. Minshew is only a viable play in 2-QB and Superflex leagues, but he should keep this Colts offense afloat.

View all Anthony Richardson Shark Bites »

Colts QB Anthony Richardson (concussion) remained sidelined on Thursday. He's now looking unlikely to play vs. the Ravens this weekend. That'd leave QB Gardner Minshew under center. Minshew is a capable passer, sporting a career 63% completion rate and 7.1 yards per attempt. And the Colts probably attempt at least a few more passes with Minshew than Richardson. WR Michael Pittman is a nice fantasy WR2 regardless of who's at QB for Indianapolis.

View all Anthony Richardson Shark Bites »

Colts WR Michael Pittman led the team in receiving again in Week 2, hauling in 8 of his 12 targets for 56 receiving yards vs. the Texans. Even without QB Anthony Richardson (concussion) in the lineup for most of the game, Pittman continued to be the focal point of the aerial attack in Indianapolis. These totals are encouraging and will undoubtedly make fantasy managers feel better if Richardson cannot suit up in Week 3 vs. the Ravens. A small note to remember from this game is that rookie WR Josh Downs has now seen 12 targets (second-most on the Colts) through the first two games of 2023. His involvement has yet to translate into useable fantasy points, though he's a name to consider speculatively adding in deeper leagues.

View all Michael Pittman Jr. Shark Bites »

Colts WR Michael Pittman led the Colts with 11 targets, eight catches, 97 yards, and a score in Sunday's loss to the Colts. Those 11 targets were a big 29.7% of the team total. Pittman's TD came on a 39-yard screen, flashing some impressive speed to beat the angles of a few Jaguars defenders. He's a big fantasy winner of Week 1. Pittman looks like the Colts' clear No. 1 WR -- AND it looks like this passing game will be more aggressive and productive than we initially thought.

View all Michael Pittman Jr. Shark Bites »

The Colts plan to ease WR Michael Pittman into training camp after his offseason hip injury, according to the Indianapolis Star's Nate Atkins. "Pittman said he's completely over it, but they just want to be cautious bringing him back into the fold," Atkins writes. This doesn't sound like a concern, although missed reps aren't ideal as Pittman settles into a new offense with a new QB.

View all Michael Pittman Jr. Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Michael Pittman Jr., WR IND
Dynasty MVP 104.5
Position Rank #31 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
333
541
945
Dynasty Write-up
Pittman’s 2022 fantasy value dipped alongside a washed-up Matt Ryan. While the USC product might not turn out to be an alpha-type WR1, he can move closer to fantasy WR1 range if Anthony Richardson approaches his ceiling. Just note: Pittman is entering the final year of his rookie deal.
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