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Michael Pittman Jr. - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsMichael Pittman Jr.'s Basic Stats

Michael Pittman Jr.
ADP: 4.3
Bye: 14
Experience: 4
Age: 26.8
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 223
40 Time: 4.52
Speed Score: 111.20

SPARQx (Rank): 112.10 (75%)
Burst Score (Rank): 122.60 (56%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.10 (68%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.25 (89%)

Michael Pittman Jr.'s Weekly Outlook

Week 1 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
5.8 67.6 0.36 9.2
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.6 55.9 0.3 7.6

Michael Pittman Jr.'s 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#26 Wide Receiver

220.8 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
4.3 87 1014 5.4 0 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsMichael Pittman Jr.'s Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

Pittman is coming off his best season ever as the primary target for Gardner Minshew last season. He was more productive with Minshew than Anthony Richardson, so there are some red flags for Pittman.

The Colts also added an additional weapon in Adonai Mitchell, so Pittman’s target share is unlikely to continue as one of the highest in the NFL.

He clearly is talented and fairly consistent, but he is being overdrafted as a potential low-end WR1. A consistent low-end WR2 season is more realistic.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Pittman’s per-game averages were the best of his four-year career:
    • 7.85 targets
    • 6.81 receptions
    • 72.0 yards
    • 10.6 yards per catch
    • 0.25 TDs
  • His per-game production improved when Gardner Minshew took over for the injured Anthony Richardson
    • 10.00 targets
    • 7.09 receptions
    • 77.73 yards
    • 10.96 yards per catch
    • 0.27 TDs
  • Pittman ranked as the PPR WR14 in total fantasy points (248.2) and WR18 in points per game (15.5).
  • He missed one game last year (Week 15) with a concussion. It is the first game Pittman has missed since his rookie year (2020).
  • He had three top-12 finishes. He also had six WR37 or worse finishes.
  • Pittman’s 30.3% target share was the fourth highest in the NFL.
  • Among 92 WRs with 40+ targets, he ranked:
    • 22nd in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
    • 23rd in yards per route run (2.04)
    • 80th in average target depth (8.1)
  • Among those same 92 WRs, Pittman was 31st in average separation yards (2.9), per NFL Next Gen Stats.

What to Expect in 2024

  • Pittman enters his second season with the Colts under HC and play-caller Shane Steichen and OC Jim Bob Cooter.
  • The Colts are expected to perform similarly to last season. They are tied for the second-highest win total in the AFC South at 8.5 wins on most sportsbooks.
  • They also are 20th in terms of highest Super Bowl odds at +6000 on most sportsbooks, third highest in the division.
  • Pittman enters his fifth season at 26 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average WR with Pittman’s career and profile will produce at 96% of his peak value at age-26.
  • The Colts spent a Round 2 pick this spring on WR Adonai Mitchell and will hopefully get a healthier 2024 season from second-year WR Josh Downs. We’re projecting Pittman’s target share to decline this season, although we still project him to finish as a top-15 WR in targets.

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Anthony Richardson, QB IND

12:33pm EDT 7/24/24

Anthony Richardson a "Full Go" For Training Camp

Colts QB Anthony Richardson (shoulder) will not have any restrictions to start training camp, according to Colts GM Chris Ballard.

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The Colts signed QB Joe Flacco to a one-year deal worth "up to" $8.7 million, ESPN's Adam Schefter reports. Flacco gets $4.5 million guaranteed. The 2023 Comeback Player of the Year played well down the stretch for the Browns last season, averaging 321 passing yards on a 63% completion rate and 7.7 yards per attempt across six outings. He tossed 14 TDs but also 10 INTs. Flacco is quality insurance for the Colts behind QB Anthony Richardson, who made it through just two full games as a rookie last year. The signing makes guys like WR Michael Pittman and WR Josh Downs slightly safer fantasy bets.

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The Colts have agreed to a three-year deal with WR Michael Pittman Jr. NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports it'll pay $70 million ($71.5 million max), with $46 million of that guaranteed. The contract gets rid of the franchise tag, which Indy had applied to ensure the wideout didn't reach free agency. Pittman looks like a top-20 dynasty WR for the next few years. We'll see what a full season of QB Anthony Richardson means for his production. Richardson got just two full games in his rookie campaign. Check our dynasty WR rankings to see where Pittman fits in your format.

View all Michael Pittman Jr. Shark Bites »

The Colts are using their franchise tag on WR Michael Pittman. The two sides have been working on a long-term deal and have until July 15 to get something done. If they don't, Pittman will play the 2024 season on a one-year, $21.8 million deal. The 26-year-old has scored as a top-20 PPR WR in each of the last three seasons, including a career-best WR14 finish last year. He's holding steady at 16th in our dynasty WR rankings.

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Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr. returned from missing Week 16 with a shoulder injury to regain control of the team's receiving in Sunday's win over the Raiders. Pittman posted an unimpressive 5-46 receiving line on 7 targets. But he drew a target on 30.4% of the team's pass attempts and claimed 33.3% of Colts completions. WR Alec Pierce took his lone catch for a 58-yard TD to lead the team in receiving yards. Rookie WR Josh Downs followed with 53 yards on just 2 receptions. QB Gardner Minshew attempted just 23 passes, completing 15 for 224 yards on a day that found Indy running on more than half of its offensive plays. Pittman looks like the only startable Colts pass-catcher for most fantasy formats in Week 18. Indy faces Houston, which allowed Pittman 8 receptions back in Week 2. Pittman also caught 8+ passes in six straight full outings before the Week 15 game he left early.

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Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Michael Pittman Jr., WR IND
Dynasty MVP 106.1
Position Rank #53 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
346
555
922
Dynasty Write-up
Pittman registered 109-1,152-4 in the final year of his rookie deal. Come March, he signed a three-year deal with $46 million in guarantees. He's in a strong spot for WR2 production moving forward.
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