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Michael Pittman Jr. - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsMichael Pittman Jr.’s Basic Stats

Michael Pittman Jr.
ADP: N/A
Bye: 14
Experience: 4
Age: 27.1
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 223
40 Time: 4.52
Speed Score: 111.20

SPARQx (Rank): 112.10 (75%)
Burst Score (Rank): 122.60 (56%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.10 (68%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.25 (89%)

Michael Pittman Jr.'s Weekly Outlook

Week 13 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.4 56.6 0.28 7.5
Weekly Writeup
Looking healthier over the past two weeks, Pittman has totaled 11 catches for 142 yards on 15 targets (26% share). He could get a boost in targets this weekend with WR Josh Downs out. And the matchup is favorable against the Patriots, who rank 31st in pass defense DVOA and 20th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.5 53.1 0.3 7.2

Michael Pittman Jr.'s 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#39 Wide Receiver

187.5 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
Not Available 74.7 843.5 4.74 0 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsMichael Pittman Jr.'s Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

Pittman is coming off his best season ever as the primary target for Gardner Minshew last season. He was more productive with Minshew than Anthony Richardson, so there are some red flags for Pittman.

The Colts also added an additional weapon in Adonai Mitchell, so Pittman’s target share is unlikely to continue as one of the highest in the NFL.

He clearly is talented and fairly consistent, but he is being overdrafted as a potential low-end WR1. A consistent low-end WR2 season is more realistic.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Pittman’s per-game averages were the best of his four-year career:
    • 7.85 targets
    • 6.81 receptions
    • 72.0 yards
    • 10.6 yards per catch
    • 0.25 TDs
  • His per-game production improved when Gardner Minshew took over for the injured Anthony Richardson
    • 10.00 targets
    • 7.09 receptions
    • 77.73 yards
    • 10.96 yards per catch
    • 0.27 TDs
  • Pittman ranked as the PPR WR14 in total fantasy points (248.2) and WR18 in points per game (15.5).
  • He missed one game last year (Week 15) with a concussion. It is the first game Pittman has missed since his rookie year (2020).
  • He had three top-12 finishes. He also had six WR37 or worse finishes.
  • Pittman’s 30.3% target share was the fourth highest in the NFL.
  • Among 92 WRs with 40+ targets, he ranked:
    • 22nd in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
    • 23rd in yards per route run (2.04)
    • 80th in average target depth (8.1)
  • Among those same 92 WRs, Pittman was 31st in average separation yards (2.9), per NFL Next Gen Stats.

What to Expect in 2024

  • Pittman enters his second season with the Colts under HC and play-caller Shane Steichen and OC Jim Bob Cooter.
  • The Colts are expected to perform similarly to last season. They are tied for the second-highest win total in the AFC South at 8.5 wins on most sportsbooks.
  • They also are 20th in terms of highest Super Bowl odds at +6000 on most sportsbooks, third highest in the division.
  • Pittman enters his fifth season at 26 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average WR with Pittman’s career and profile will produce at 96% of his peak value at age-26.
  • The Colts spent a Round 2 pick this spring on WR Adonai Mitchell and will hopefully get a healthier 2024 season from second-year WR Josh Downs. We’re projecting Pittman’s target share to decline this season, although we still project him to finish as a top-15 WR in targets.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Alec Pierce, WR IND

8:25pm EST 11/27/24

Alec Pierce Out Wednesday

Colts WR Alec Pierce (foot) did not practice on Wednesday. We don't have any details on his foot injury. WR Josh Downs (shoulder) is not expected to play vs. the Patriots this weekend, while WR Ashton Dulin (ankle) also missed Wednesday's practice. That leaves Michael Pittman, Adonai Mitchell, and Anthony Gould as the three healthy WRs on Indianapolis' active roster.

View all Alec Pierce Shark Bites »

Colts WR Josh Downs is considered "week to week" with the shoulder injury he suffered in Sunday's loss to the Lions and is a "long shot" to play against the Patriots this weekend, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. "But the belief is he did not suffer a major injury," Rapoport adds.

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Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr. led the team with 6 receptions and 96 yards in Sunday's loss to the Lions. That accounted for 54.5% of QB Anthony Richardson's completions and 55.8% of his passing yardage for the game. It also marked just the second time all season that Pittman has exceeded 63 yards in a game this season.

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Colts WR Michael Pittman is questionable to return to Sunday's game vs. the Lions with a shoulder injury. It's a new injury for Pittman, who's been playing through a bad back and also suffered a finger injury earlier this season. We'll update his status when we know more. His absence should mean more snaps for WR A.D. Mitchell.

Update: Pittman returned to the game.

View all Michael Pittman Jr. Shark Bites »

Colts WR Michael Pittman (back) put in a full week of practice and isn’t listed on the final injury report for Sunday’s game vs. the Jets. With QB Anthony Richardson back under center, though, Pittman is no better than a WR4. He’s finished outside the top 50 WRs in PPR points in four of five games with Richardson this season.

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Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Michael Pittman Jr., WR IND
Dynasty MVP 33.3
Position Rank #43 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
309
496
825
Dynasty Write-up
Pittman registered 109-1,152-4 in the final year of his rookie deal. Come March, he signed a three-year deal with $46 million in guarantees. He needs improved play from Anthony Richardson for sustainable fantasy production.
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