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Mike Davis - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Mike Davis
ATL

RB ATL

#22 Running Back

158 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 6
Experience: 6 Yr(s)
Age: 28
Height: 5'9"
Weight: 217
40 Time: 4.50

Weekly Outlook

3d Projection

Low Floor

2

DS Projection

3.7

Consensus

38 other sites
5

High Ceiling

5.7

Rest of
Season

4.8

Week 14 Projections
Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
14.4 0.1 2.7 17 0 3.7
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
23 0.1 2 13 0.1 4.8
Week 11
Well, at least you don’t have to keep Davis stashed on your fantasy roster any longer.

Even with Cordarrelle Patterson out of Thursday night’s game vs. the Patriots, Davis did nothing. He mustered just a single yard on 3 carries, watching Qadree Ollison lead the way with 9 totes for 34 yards. Davis did lead the backfield in targets, but turned those 4 into just 3 catches for 20 yards.

Cut him.
Week 9
Davis has taken a clear backseat to Cordarrelle Patterson over the past few weeks and Week 9 was no different. Patterson ran more routes (20 to 11) and saw more targets (6 to 1) on the week. The pass game role is key for these RBs as the Falcons have struggled on the ground over the past few games. In Week 9, Patterson and Davis combined for 18 carries for 23 yards. Davis himself hasn’t looked terrible, but his inconsistent usage in the pass game makes his floor very low for fantasy.
In Week 10 the matchup vs. Dallas should be better for Davis, but his limited pass game role while splitting ground game work with Patterson makes him a risky play.
Week 8
After Davis logged just 4 touches in the Week 7 win over Miami, HC Arthur Smith said the RB would get the ball more going forward. He proved it by getting Davis back to 9 carries and 6 targets in Sunday’s loss to the Panthers. That tied Cordarrelle Patterson for the team lead in rushing attempts and edged Patterson by 1 target.

Davis didn’t do anything special with those opportunities. He gained 44 yards on the ground at a season-high 4.9-yard average. He added 5 catches for 22 yards. And he stayed in the same playing-time range for the 6th consecutive game. Davis played 75% of offensive snaps in the opener. He has finished each of the succeeding 6 contests between 60% and 64%.

Expect similar usage and similarly unexciting -- but often-usable -- PPR production.
Week 5
Davis rushed 13 times for 53 yards and a score in the win over the Jets in London on Sunday. He also chipped in 2 receptions for 20 yards. His TD came late in the game to ice it after the Jets crept to within 3 points.

Davis trailed Cordarrelle Patterson in both carries and targets but still played more snaps. It’s also worth noting that Patterson spent more time at WR vs. the Jets than in any previous contest this season -- 39% of his snaps.

Both remain viable fantasy options in RB2-3 range -- especially as bye weeks hit.
Week 3
Davis rushed 12 times for 50 yards, and added 20 yards on 4 receptions. He split backfield duties with WR/RB Cordarrelle Patterson who touched the ball 13 times. Davis looked pretty good between the tackles but Atlanta didn’t rely too heavily on the run in this one. Heading into the year there wasn’t much in the way for Davis to have a major role in offense, but through 3 weeks he hasn’t impressed much. His 50 yards vs. the Giants is the most he’s gained in a game thus far, and it helps that he can contribute in the passing game. Davis has yet to score on the season, and it has to be starting to wear thin for fantasy owners. Stay the course for now with games against Washington and New York Jets coming up before their Week 6 bye.
Week 2
Davis rushed 9 times for 38 yards in the Falcons' Week 2 loss to the Bucs, adding 7 receptions for 25 additional yards.
Davis rushed 9 times compared to 7 for Cordarrelle Patterson but was able to salvage his fantasy day with 7 receptions from Matt Ryan, who was consistently dumping the ball off short to avoid the ferocious Tampa pass rush.
Davis has seen nice volume so far. But Patterson is a looming threat, and Atlanta’s offense has been shaky.
Week 1
Davis had a better Week 1 than the numbers might indicate. It started with his best carry of the game on his 1st try -- for 12 yards. His 2nd run went for a decent 4-yard gain as well.

He got the team’s only official carry of the game inside the 10-yard line and 3 of the 4 rushing attempts in the red zone. But Davis also had a late 1st-quarter rushing attempt from the Philly 4-yard line negated by a penalty. And he drew 2 targets inside the 10-yard line.

Davis also lost his longest reception of the game -- a 21-yard catch-and-run in the 3rd quarter -- to an unnecessary offensive PI by Calvin Ridley. A dropped 4th quarter swing pass could have added at least a bit more yardage.

But Davis still claimed 6 of 8 official Atlanta RB targets on the day and carried 15 times to Cordarrelle Patterson’s 7.

He’ll be an easy sit for a Week 2 meeting with Tampa Bay’s brick-wall run D. But it’s not time to quit on Davis.

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Davis earned the Panthers' #2 job behind Christian McCaffrey last summer. With CMC playing only 3 games, Davis rolled up career highs in carries (165), yards (642) and TDs (6). The same held true in the receiving game with a 59-373-2 line.
  • He wasn’t efficient, though, averaging just 3.9 yards per carry.
  • Davis declined down the stretch. After posting 4.2 yards per carry over the first 8 games, he tallied just 3.6 over his final 7. He saw his targets drop by 1.5 per game.
  • Davis missed Week 17 with a minor ankle injury.
  • Overall, Davis showed spurts of excelling as a lead back. He averaged nearly 3 yards after contract per attempt — a solid mark. Davis also ranked 3rd among 47 RBs with 100+ attempts in Pro Football Focus’ Elusive Rating.
  • He wasn’t dynamic on a per-catch basis, averaging just 6.3 yards per reception. He sat 14th among 28 RBs with 40+ targets in yards per route run; 19th in yards after catch per reception. Nothing special.
  • Atlanta signed Davis to a 2-year deal worth $5.5 million in March.
  • The Falcons ranked 22nd in PFF’s run-blocking grades last year — 3 spots behind the Panthers. Expect some improvement from this young line.
  • Atlanta’s top-3 ball-carriers from 2020 all departed this offseason. Todd Gurley, Brian Hill and Ito Smith leave behind 358 carries (plus 91 targets).
  • Atlanta didn't draft a back, instead opting for UDFAs Javian Hawkins and Caleb Huntley. Cordarrelle Patterson arrived as a versatile RB/WR chess piece. But none of the 3 project as major factors.
  • Here are the offseason words of new HC Arthur Smith, former OC for the Titans: “The reality is that we’ll get multiple backs in here, and we’ll have the way we trust our schemes and the way we teach the details of it, and we’ll commit to it.”
  • In May, RB coach Desmond Kitchings said “the door is wide open” for any RB to take over the backfield. But with unproven guys like Qadree Ollison and Tony Brooks-James (plus the rookies) pushing for snaps, Davis will at least head to camp as the clear favorite for touches.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Davis is a 28-year-old back set to play for his 5th team in 7 seasons. Before tallying 165 carries last year, he compiled 247 totes over his first 5 seasons.

So he doesn’t fit the typical profile of a sure-fire lead back. Yet that’s the role he’s the favorite to land with help from a thin depth chart.

Perhaps stiffer backfield competition arrives in the coming months. But for now, Davis profiles as a volume-based RB2 for a solid Atlanta offense — even without Julio Jones. He does come with elevated risk considering his spotty history. We're generally not looking at him until the 5th round of fantasy drafts.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Scott Bair of the Falcons official site believes Mike Davis will see “200 plus carries.” “They'll use several [RBs] in the rushing attack,” Blair says, “though I think Davis ends up the workhorse.” Our current RB projections have Davis down for 205 rush attempts, so it's a reasonable take. We’ll keep an eye on Atlanta adding another RB as teams make cuts to get rosters down to 53 by 4pm Monday. For now, Qadree Ollison looks like the team’s #2 rusher.

View all Mike Davis Shark Bites »

Back before his team elected not to draft any RBs, new Falcons HC Arthur Smith said he plans a committee approach in the backfield. “We’re not going to have Derrick Henry here,” Smith told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution in April. “So, it’s not like I think we’re going to have Derrick Henry. The reality is that we’ll get multiple backs in here, and we’ll have the way we trust our schemes and the way we teach the details of it, and we’ll commit to it." Mike Davis stands as the clear leader in a group who's next most accomplished rusher is Cordarrelle Patterson. But Patterson will factor in. Atlanta signed Javian Hawkins after the draft. We'll see about Qadree Ollison. And the Falcons could still add pieces. Davis makes for a solid target in current best-ball drafting. Just beware of projecting him too many touches simply because we can't see exactly where else they would go yet.

View all Mike Davis Shark Bites »

Has any RB's fantasy outlook improved more than that of Mike Davis through draft weekend? As of this writing (late in Round 6), the Falcons have spent all of their NFL Draft picks and drafted 0 RBs. "It just didn't fall our way," GM Terry Fontenot said of their RB considerations throughout the draft, according to ESPN's Michael Rothstein. That leaves 30-year-old Cordarrelle Patterson as the next most accomplished NFL rusher (167 career carries) behind Davis on the roster, and Atlanta does list Patterson at RB. Qadree Ollison and Tony Brooks-James join them. Fontenot and HC Arthur Smith added that they'll look at undrafted free agents and consider trades, free agents and post-June 1 cuts. So we'll see if the Falcons can add someone better than Davis. He has cleared a big hurdle through draft weekend, though.

View all Mike Davis Shark Bites »

The Falcons have agreed to a 2-year, $5.5 million deal with RB Mike Davis, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. It's a sensible signing for an offense with a weak group of RBs. Davis performed solidly in place of Christian McCaffrey with the Panthers last year, including ranking 4th on the team -- and 4th among all NFL RBs -- with 59 receptions. Davis' arrival certainly doesn't preclude Atlanta from making further backfield moves. We'll see whether that includes a pick in the NFL Draft's first 2 days.

View all Mike Davis Shark Bites »

Panthers RB Mike Davis (ankle) isn't expected to play vs. the Saints this weekend, ESPN's David Newton reports. So with Davis and Christian McCaffrey out, Carolina will be down to RBs Rodney Smith and Trenton Cannon. Look for Smith to handle the bulk of the work, but the matchup vs. New Orleans' top-ranked RB defense leaves him as an uninspiring fantasy play. WR Curtis Samuel should also continue to play a significant role in the ground game after carrying 7 times for 52 yards last week.

View all Mike Davis Shark Bites »

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