Van Jefferson - Fantasy Points Outlook

What You Need to Know:

• Jefferson posted a 50-802-6 line in 2021, his 2nd NFL season.
• He finished 36th among WRs in PPR points and 31st in non-PPR.
• He ranked 41st among WRs with 89 targets.
• Despite playing alongside Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods and then Odell Beckham, Jefferson played 80.3% of the snaps in Rams offense that goes heavy on 3-WR sets.
• Jefferson got a lot of work deep downfield.
  • He averaged 16.0 yards per catch, 7th among 89 WRs with 50+ targets.
  • He ranked 11th with a 14.0-yard average depth of target.
  • His 16 targets of 20+ yards ranked 36th among WRs.
• Jefferson ranked 81st among those 89 WRs with 50+ targets in Pro Football Focus receiving grade.
• His 1.45 yards per route run ranked 59th of 89.
• Jefferson scored .2 fewer PPR points per game than expected based on his usage.
• He’ll be back in HC Sean McVay’s offense in 2022.
• QB Matt Stafford returns for his 2nd season with the Rams.
  • Stafford got an injection in his right elbow after the Super Bowl to address an issue that bothered him during last season. He didn’t throw during the offseason program but is expected to be throwing by training camp.
• WR Robert Woods was traded to the Titans in March. WR Odell Beckham remains unsigned as of mid-June after tearing his ACL in the Super Bowl.
  • Those 2 combined for 19.3% of the Rams’ targets, 17.7% of the catches, 17.6% of the receiving yards and 22.0% of the receiving TDs last year.
• The Rams signed WR Allen Robinson to a 3-year, $46.5 million deal in free agency.
  • Robinson is coming off an ugly 2021, missing 5 games and finishing with a 38-410-1 line. He dealt with shaky QB play but also posted a career-worst Pro Football Focus receiving grade, ranking 65th among 89 qualifying WRs.
  • Robinson ranked 5th and 12th in PFF receiving grade the previous 2 years.
  • He turns 29 in August and is entering his 9th NFL season.
• WR Cooper Kupp returns after a huge 2021 season. It should be Kupp, Robinson and Jefferson as the Rams’ top 3 WRs.
• Despite ranking 11th in offensive pace and 4th in situation-neutral pace, the Rams finished just 18th with 62.2 offensive snaps per game last year.
  • That was down from 68.0, 65.9 and 66.3 plays per game the previous 3 seasons.
  • The Rams are a good bet to run more plays – and, therefore, throw more passes – this year.
• The Athletic's Jourdan Rodrigue hears that Rams WR Van Jefferson's knee surgery "went great" and that "it’s realistic to believe he can return by the Sept. 8 opener."

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Jefferson wasn’t great last season. But playing a near full-time role in a strong Rams offense propelled him to PPR WR36 and non-PPR WR31 finishes.

He should be in a similar role in 2022. HC Sean McVay, QB Matt Stafford and WR Cooper Kupp are all back. The Rams lost WRs Robert Woods and Odell Beckam and replace that combination with Allen Robinson.

Don’t expect Jefferson to be a league-winner this year. But he’s a useful depth piece for your fantasy roster.