Bottom Line

Jones lived up to his contract last year, scoring as a WR3 and delivering some spike weeks. This season adds a big challenge, however, with Calvin Ridley entering the mix.

Bet on Jones operating as the third WR, which will only add to his weekly fluctuations. He’ll be tough to like as more than a reserve in lineup-setting formats but is a solid best ball option to mix in at a WR5 or WR6-level price.

What We Learned Last Year

• Jones’ 2022 role matched his eye-opening free agent deal. After getting $8 million a year on a three-year contract, Jones ranked second among Jaguars in targets, receptions, yards, and TDs.
  • He beat Christian Kirk in catch rate and receptions per game, while playing a nearly identical snap share: 86.4% over his 16 games, compared with Kirk’s 88.2% over 17 games.
  • Jones trailed Kirk in average target depth, yards before catch per reception, and yards after catch per reception.
• Jones set a career high in target share, ranking 33rd among WRs and 10 spots behind Kirk. It was Jones’ first time north of 20% target share since 2018, his second season (with the Bills).
• Jones’ aDOT decreased significantly vs. 2021 with the Raiders, shortening by nearly 5 yards. That came despite him working outside on more than 65% of pass snaps for the fourth straight year (and fifth time in six seasons).
• His yards per route marked a career high, tying for 46th among 97 WRs with 40+ targets.
• Jones’ 92.1 passer rating on balls thrown his way tied for 52nd among the same group, trailing Kirk (39th at 99.8).

What to Expect in 2023

• Salary and 2023 numbers point to Kirk sitting ahead of Jones among Jaguars WRs. That will matter even more this season, as Calvin Ridley enters the mix.
• Jacksonville traded two draft picks for Ridley, despite him being in the middle of a one-year suspension. That move indicates they believe in him quite a bit. And his performance to date points to a higher ceiling than either Jones or Kirk possesses.
• If Ridley grabs a top-2 WR spot this year and Kirk remains ahead of Jones, then Jones could see a significant decline in playing time.
  • Marvin Jones ranked third among Jaguars WRs last season, playing 66% of snaps over his 16 games. His 14.7% target share ranked fourth on the team and just 74th among all WRs.
  • We currently have Zay Jones projected for a larger share than that. But his range of outcomes certainly includes falling to that level of opportunity.
• There’s room for Jacksonville to simply pass more overall. The team ranked 13th in neutral-situation pass rate for the season; 10th from Week 9 on.