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Zay Jones - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsZay Jones's Basic Stats

Zay Jones
ADP: 13.10
Bye: 9
Experience: 6 Yr(s)
Age: 28.4
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 200
40 Time: 4.45
Speed Score: 103.90
SPARQx (Rank): 119.70 (89%)
Burst Score (Rank): 128.60 (84%)
Agility Score (Rank): 10.80 (92%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.33 (93%)

Zay Jones's Weekly Outlook

Week 3 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
0 0 0 0
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.4 49.5 0.3 6.8

Zay Jones's 2023 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#55 Wide Receiver

107.2 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
13.10 67.3 728.4 5.5 1.8 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsZay Jones's Preseason Player Analysis

View WR Fantasy Rankings »
Bottom Line

Jones lived up to his contract last year, scoring as a WR3 and delivering some spike weeks. This season adds a big challenge, however, with Calvin Ridley entering the mix.

Bet on Jones operating as the third WR, which will only add to his weekly fluctuations. He’ll be tough to like as more than a reserve in lineup-setting formats but is a solid best ball option to mix in at a WR5 or WR6-level price.

What We Learned Last Year
  • Jones’ 2022 role matched his eye-opening free agent deal. After getting $8 million a year on a three-year contract, Jones ranked second among Jaguars in targets, receptions, yards, and TDs.
    • He beat Christian Kirk in catch rate and receptions per game, while playing a nearly identical snap share: 86.4% over his 16 games, compared with Kirk’s 88.2% over 17 games.
    • Jones trailed Kirk in average target depth, yards before catch per reception, and yards after catch per reception.
  • Jones set a career high in target share, ranking 33rd among WRs and 10 spots behind Kirk. It was Jones’ first time north of 20% target share since 2018, his second season (with the Bills).
  • Jones’ aDOT decreased significantly vs. 2021 with the Raiders, shortening by nearly 5 yards. That came despite him working outside on more than 65% of pass snaps for the fourth straight year (and fifth time in six seasons).
  • His yards per route marked a career high, tying for 46th among 97 WRs with 40+ targets.
  • Jones’ 92.1 passer rating on balls thrown his way tied for 52nd among the same group, trailing Kirk (39th at 99.8).
What to Expect in 2023
  • Salary and 2023 numbers point to Kirk sitting ahead of Jones among Jaguars WRs. That will matter even more this season, as Calvin Ridley enters the mix.
  • Jacksonville traded two draft picks for Ridley, despite him being in the middle of a one-year suspension. That move indicates they believe in him quite a bit. And his performance to date points to a higher ceiling than either Jones or Kirk possesses.
  • If Ridley grabs a top-2 WR spot this year and Kirk remains ahead of Jones, then Jones could see a significant decline in playing time.
    • Marvin Jones ranked third among Jaguars WRs last season, playing 66% of snaps over his 16 games. His 14.7% target share ranked fourth on the team and just 74th among all WRs.
    • We currently have Zay Jones projected for a larger share than that. But his range of outcomes certainly includes falling to that level of opportunity.
  • There’s room for Jacksonville to simply pass more overall. The team ranked 13th in neutral-situation pass rate for the season; 10th from Week 9 on.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Zay Jones, WR JAC

9 hours ago

Zay Jones ruled out for Week 3

Jaguars WR Zay Jones (knee) has been ruled out for Week 3 vs. the Texans. His absence should lead to greater opportunity for teammate Christian Kirk to build upon his resurgent 14-catch, 110-receiving-yard performance from last Sunday. See where Kirk lands in our current WR rankings.

View all Zay Jones Shark Bites »

Jaguars WR Zay Jones (knee) missed his second straight practice on Thursday. He's seemingly in danger of missing this weekend's game vs. the Titans. Jones' absence would boost the target projections for Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, and Evan Engram.

View all Zay Jones Shark Bites »

Jaguars WR Zay Jones (knee) won't practice on Wednesday, HC Doug Pederson said. Pederson labeled Jones "day-to-day." He was able to return to last weekend's loss to the Chiefs, so Jones seemingly has a shot to play vs. the Texans this weekend. But he wouldn't be a strong fantasy play at less than 100%.

View all Zay Jones Shark Bites »

Jaguars HC Doug Pederson labeled WR Zay Jones day-to-day with the knee injury he suffered in Sunday's loss to the Chiefs. Jones is still set for additional testing on the knee. He was able to return to the Week 2 game, so we're tentatively expecting him to be available for this weekend's game vs. the Texans. But we'll update his status when we know more.

View all Zay Jones Shark Bites »

The Jags mustered only 9 points in Sunday's loss to Kansas City. That meant a big-time dud from QB Trevor Lawrence, who tallied just 216 passing yards on a 53.6% completion rate. He managed only 5.3 yards per attempt. “We’re better than that. We’re a better team than that … it’s kind of embarrassing,” Lawrence said afterward. Calvin Ridley (2 catches) and Zay Jones (0 catches) played through minor knee injuries in this one, but we’re not expecting any missed time. Expect a Lawrence bounce back in Week 3 vs. Houston.

View all Trevor Lawrence Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Zay Jones, WR JAC
Dynasty MVP 65.0
Position Rank #67 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
221
330
551
Dynasty Write-up
Jones enjoyed a career-year in 2022 alongside Trevor Lawrence (82-823-5). But regression is on the way after the Jags traded for WR Calvin Ridley and brought back TE Evan Engram.
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