Bottom Line

The injury bug bit Watson out of the gate in 2022, though he managed to string together a four-game stretch of fantasy dominance late. The Packers changing QBs from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love will affect his 2023 outlook, though.

We anticipate Watson will be a big-play, low-end WR2 option with a volatile floor.

What We Learned Last Year

• Watson started slowly, thanks in part to multiple injuries.
  • He sustained a knee injury that required surgery in OTAs last summer.
  • Watson left Week 3 early with a hamstring issue that limited his usage over the next two games and eventually caused him to miss weeks 6 and 7.
  • A concussion took the rookie out of Week 8 in the first quarter.
• Watson enjoyed a robust midseason stretch, however, en route to finishing as the WR40 in PPR.
• He tallied four top-12 finishes, with one more inside the top 24. Watson finished outside the top 40 in the other nine games he played.
• Watson actually trailed fellow rookie Romeo Doubs in target share, after adjustment for games missed by each player. Watson totaled 66 targets (one fewer than Doubs), a 25.3% air yards share, 611 receiving yards, and 7 receiving TDs
• Watson took off in Week 9. He recorded all seven of his TD catches and each of his top-12 weekly finishes during a four-game stretch week 9-13. Here’s how he ranked on the Packers’ roster in receiving from Week 9 through the end of the year:
  • second in target share (19.9%)
  • first in air yards share (33.8%)
  • tied for first in weighted opportunity rating (0.51)
  • first in PPR points per game (15.8)
    • In that same stretch, Watson ranked ninth in PFF receiving grade, fifth in yards per route run (2.54), and fourth in contested catch rate (75.0%) among all 52 NFL WRs who saw 40+ targets over that span.

What to Expect in 2023

• The Packers traded QB Aaron Rodgers to the Jets and will enter the year with QB Jordan Love as the new guy. Love has only one start through three years, with just two games in which he attempted double-digit passes.
• HC Matt LaFleur seems unlikely to pass more this upcoming season under the circumstances, and this is a team that finished 18th in pass rate in 2022.
• WR Allen Lazard left via free agency to join the Jets after leading the team in targets last season. The Packers also let TE Robert Tonyan (tied for third in targets), WR Randall Cobb (sixth), and WR Sammy Watkins (eighth) leave. That quartet combined to see targets on 42.5% of Green Bay’s pass attempts last season.