Christian Watson - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

If Watson can merely stay healthy, there’s plenty of upside from his now WR4-level price tag. We’ll see whether that ADP rises if he moves through training camp with no hamstring issues. If it doesn’t, he’ll be a fairly easy buy – with far less risk at his lowered draft cost.

What We Learned Last Year

• Watson’s hamstrings aren’t made of the most durable material.
  • A Week 3 hamstring injury in 2022 lingered through at least Week 8 of that season.
  • The same issue struck before the 2023 season, costing Watson the first three games (and limiting his role in the fourth).
  • The hamstrings struck again late in the year, taking Watson out of the team’s final five regular-season contests.
  • He returned for the playoffs but saw just three total targets across two games.
• When healthy during the regular season, Watson remained a key part of the offensive plan. Here’s how Green Bay distributed targets from Week 5 through Week 13:
  • Watson 49
  • Romeo Doubs 41
  • Jayden Reed 39
  • Luke Musgrave 29
  • Aaron Jones 24
  • Dontayvion Wicks 23
  • AJ Dillon 20
  • Tucker Kraft 13
• Watson’s target share still ranked just 46th among WRs over that span. And he topped 3 receptions in a game only twice.
• Whether it was the injuries, the QB change, or both, Watson saw a dip in efficiency in his second season.
  • His Pro Football Focus receiving grade fell.
  • His yards per route went from 13th among WRs (min. 30 targets) to a tie for 57th.
    • That rate tumbled from 2.26 to 1.48, fifth among Packers WRs.
• Watson still led the team with 15 end-zone targets, according to PFF, beating Doubs by 1 even while trailing him by 40 total targets.
  • That marked a boost vs. 2022, when Watson trailed Allen Lazard 11-7 in end-zone targets despite a smaller gap in total targets (33).

What to Expect in 2024

• Watson says offseason testing revealed that asymmetry in his leg muscles led to the recurrent issues with his right hamstring.
  • He told ESPN’s Rob Demovsky in May: "It comes from a lot of things. Obviously, the issues I've had in the past with hamstrings, not fully recovering from those strength-wise. I've been attacking the strength side of it, trying to get that symmetry back and it's been huge for me. I feel really, really good. I gotta continue grinding at it."
  • We’ll obviously have to watch Watson through the summer. But the specifics of his solution are encouraging. It’s more than just a player or a team promising they’re working on it.
• The next issue challenging Watson’s outlook is the crowd around him in Green Bay. As mentioned above, he did lead the WRs in playing time and targets when healthy. But the rest of the group remains close by. That crowd muddies the target outlook for everyone and could limit both the weekly consistency and ultimate upside.
• Watson wins on talent, though. He and Reed were drafted earlier than the rest of the WRs (second round). And Watson brings a combo of size (6’4) and speed (4.36-second 40 time) unique to the group
• You can also tell the differing roles among last year’s WRs by their alignment splits …

• Finally, there’s room for the Packers to potentially throw the ball more in 2024.
  • Green Bay has gradually leaned further toward the run across LaFleur’s time as HC. Here are the annual rankings in neutral situation pass rate:
    • 2019: 5th
    • 2020: 10th
    • 2021: 11th
    • 2022: 18th
    • 2023: 20th
  • It made sense for that to fall the past two years. Green Bay traded Davante Adams ahead of 2022 and then Aaron Rodgers before last season. In 2023, the Packers featured a first-time starter at QB and a pass-catching corps almost entirely made up of first- and second-year players.
• Now that the whole group has a year of experience – and good performance by QB Jordan Love – it would seem to make sense to shift back the other way at least some.
• Green Bay did, however, pay up for RB Josh Jacobs in free agency and draft RB MarShawn Lloyd in Round 3. So they might just continue the identity of the past two seasons.