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Watson remains one of the highest-upside bets in Green Bay's passing game. He's improved in each of the last three years in targets per route and yards per route, and the Packers clearly want to get him the ball. The departures of Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks help Watson’s chances of boosting his target volume and significantly outperforming his mid-WR3 ADP.
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Watson’s 2025 season was short but productive.
He finished with 35 catches on 55 targets for 611 yards, and 6 TDs across 10 games. That put him 46th among WRs in total PPR points, but 19th in PPR points per game.
Watson's weekly finishes were volatile. He had four top-12 weeks, but also four outside the top 36.
Green Bay clearly used him as the field-stretcher. Watson’s 18.0-yard average depth of target (third among WRs) pointing to a true vertical role. He also led the team by garnering 24.1% of air yards, despite missing seven games.
That role fits QB Jordan Love, who ranked eighth in intended air yard. Love is willing and able to attack downfield, and Watson is the Packers' WR best suited to cash in.
Watson’s efficiency was excellent. Among WRs with 50+ targets, he posted:
Those are strong indicators that Watson received efficient targets and created big plays when healthy last season. He also earned an 86.7 total-offense grade from Pro Football Focus, ranking 15th among that WR group.
Green Bay’s offense has leaned run since signing Jacobs in 2024. HC Matt LaFleur went from a 58.1% pass rate in 2023 to 48.8% in 2024 and 51.3% in 2025.
Last year’s Packers ranked …
The passing game does work downfield to Watson’s strength. Love’s 8.8 intended air yards in 2025 ranked eighth among QBs. He ranked sixth in 2024 with 8.9 intended air yards.
Watson has improved each of his last three seasons. His targets per route run saw a drastic increase in 2025:
That 2025 mark led the team ranking above Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed (0.20) along with Dontayvion Wicks (0.19).
His yards per route run also increased each season:
Watson has always been a deep threat, however. His aDOT was near the top of the league every season:
And here’s how he ranked in PPR points per game each season:
Watson’s improvement over the past three years plus his deep role give him enormous upside for 2026.
A right ACL tear in the final regular-season game of 2024 kept Watson out until Week 8 last season. But he appeared in every game after that return, including Week 16 and 17 contests that found him questionable with chest and shoulder issues.
Watson has a long history of soft-tissue injuries, missing multiple games with hamstring issues in 2022 and 2023 (11 games total). Before the 2024 season, he changed his recovery plan to try to address those chronic hamstring problems. We haven’t seen hamstring issues since.
Watson enters 2026 as Green Bay’s primary downfield WR and likely No. 1 WR on the depth chart.
The team still has other viable weapons, including slot-heavy Jayden Reed and second-year WR Matthew Golden. TE Tucker Kraft was also a strong target before his ACL injury, and Jacobs earned 43 targets himself.
Watson does not need to lead this team in catches to pay off with his downfield ability, but we’re projecting him to do so.
Love is a strong fit for Watson.
He ranked eighth in intended air yards. That gives Watson a QB willing to throw the downfield passes that drive his fantasy upside.
The team is built for “11” personnel (three WRs) with Reed primarily in the slot, and Watson and Golden manning the outside. Kraft also appears to be on track for the season as he works back from the ACL tear.
That supporting cast should help Green Bay sustain drives and force teams to leave Watson in single coverage at times.
Since signing Jacobs in 2024, the Packers’ offense has leaned run.
Plays Per Game | Pass Rate | Neutral Pass Rate | Pass Rate Over Expected | |
2023 | 61.9 | 58.1% | 56.2% | +1.9% |
2024 | 60.4 | 48.8% | 47.8% | -4.5% |
2025 | 59.4 | 56.9% | 52.5% | -2.1% |
With Jacobs under contract through 2027, the Packers will likely continue hovering around a 50-50 run-pass split.
The scheme does attempt to push the ball downfield in the passing game. Love’s 8.8 intended air yards in 2025 ranked eighth among QBs. He ranked sixth in 2024 with 8.9 intended air yards.
We got top-20 per-game production from Watson last year, even though he was coming off an ACL tear. What we haven’t gotten yet is a full healthy season.
The absence of hamstring issues that past two years looks promising on that front, though. And Green Bay letting Doubs leave while trading Wicks away only helps the target outlook for Watson, who already looked like their best wideout.
His improvement over the past three years in targets per route run and yards per route run shows a WR who continues to grow and produce. Watson possesses WR1 potential if these trends continue.
The biggest question with Watson obviously remains the durability. Although he avoided hamstring trouble and missed no time after his return from the ACL rehab last year, he did pop up as questionable in weeks 16 and 17.
As mentioned above, those were upper body (chest and shoulder) issues, and thus far less worrisome than the hamstring history. But we still need to get at least one full, healthy season before we can dismiss the durability concern.
It’s also worth noting that Watson played just 67.5% of the snaps over his 10 regular-season games last year. That marked the second-highest snap share among his four NFL campaigns, and it made sense for Green Bay to avoid overworking him coming off the knee repair. But we don’t yet know how high that playing time can climb when Watson’s at full health.
He can deliver useful fantasy production even if he stays short of 85% playing time, but fewer snaps obviously lowers the ceiling to some degree.
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Packers Pay Christian Watson Like Their No. 1 WR
Packers Pay Christian Watson Like Their No. 1 WR
The Packers have signed WR Christian Watson to a four-year $110.5 million extension with a $31 million signing bonus, locking him onto the Packers for the future. The $27.6 million a year will rank 15th among NFL WRs. Watson had a stellar year last season, despite only playing in 10 games. His 18.0 aDOT and 14.1 yards before catch per reception both ranked third in the NFL with a 2.51 yards per route run that ranked 19th in the league.
Jayden Reed Signs Three-Year Extension with the Packers
Jayden Reed Signs Three-Year Extension with the Packers
Packers WR Jayden Reed signed a three-year $50.25 million extension, including $20 million guaranteed according to his agents Drew Rosenhaus and Ian Grutman. The Packers traded WR Dontayvion Wicks to the Eagles earlier this month and also didn’t re-sign Romeo Doubs who left via free agency. Reed will remain the slot WR for the Packers behind Christian Watson and Matthew Golden.
Dontayvion Wicks Traded To Eagles ... Will It Matter?
Dontayvion Wicks Traded To Eagles ... Will It Matter?
The Packers are trading WR Dontayvion Wicks to the Eagles in exchange for 2026 fifth- and 2027 sixth-round picks, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Philadelphia is also giving Wicks a one-year, $12.5 million extension that keeps him signed through the 2027 season. Wicks has teased fantasy owners with a handful of strong outings over the last four seasons and registered strong marks in advanced metrics like targets per route and yards per route. But he never carved out a consistent role in Green Bay. There's opportunity for him to do so in Philadelphia ... if WR A.J. Brown is traded.
Christian Watson Active
Christian Watson Active
Packers WR Christian Watson (shoulder, illness) is active for tonight's game vs. the Ravens. We're expecting him to play his usual allotment of snaps, but Watson makes for a shaky fantasy start in what figures to be a run-heavy game from the Malik Willis-led Packers.
Jordan Love Won't Play Week 17, Malik Willis Expected To Start
Jordan Love Won't Play Week 17, Malik Willis Expected To Start
Packers QB Jordan Love (concussion) won't play vs. the Ravens on Saturday night, ESPN's Adam Schefter reports. Love was limited in practice all week and should be cleared in time for Week 18. QB Malik Willis, who's also listed as questionable with a right shoulder injury, is expected to start against Baltimore, per Schefter. We've had it projected that way all week, so there are no changes to the Week 17 rankings. Expect an extremely run-heavy game from Green Bay.
See whether Christian Watson is available in your leagues.
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