Bottom Line

Carr has been a solid – and unspectacular – fantasy QB for a long time. Odds are he’ll be fine in his new digs, with a solid set of skill-position players around him and an experienced coaching staff. Ultimately, though, he’s unlikely to be a fantasy difference maker.

Feel free to draft Carr late as a backup in 1-QB formats and QB2 in best ball. He could be an upside option (at cost) for 2-QB and superflex formats.

What We Learned Last Year

• We learned that the Raiders suddenly discovered they were paying Carr too much money.
• His 2022 numbers did drop in a number of categories vs. previous:
  • 60.8% completion rate was Carr’s lowest since his 2014 rookie campaign.
  • 7.0 yards per pass attempt was his lowest since 2017, despite the deepest average target depth of his career (by more than a yard).
  • 2.8% INT rate was the worst of his career.
  • 86.3 passer rating was his worst since 2014.
  • 65.4 Pro Football Focus passing grade was his worst since 2014.
  • 70.8% adjusted completion rate was worst since 2014.
• Carr finished a decent 16th among fantasy QBs; 20th in points per game among multi-game starters.
• A 4.8% TD rate helped. That tied for 12th in the league and was the fourth-best rate of Carr’s career.
• Carr finished his last pre-Josh McDaniels season 12th among fantasy QBs; 14th in points per game.
• Vegas benched Carr for the final two games last season and then released him on Valentine’s Day. (Feel that love.)

What to Expect in 2023

• The Saints clearly disagreed with the Raiders’ assessment of Carr. They signed the vet less than a month after his release to a four-year, $150 million contract that includes $100 million in guarantees.
• HC Dennis Allen said they targeted Carr as soon as it became clear he was done in Vegas. Allen says he values intelligence highly at QB and called Carr “one of the more intelligent people I’ve ever been around in terms of football knowledge.”
• Carr won’t have Davante Adams in New Orleans. But he’ll have a much younger deep threat. Chris Olave’s average depth of target beat Adams’ by more than 3.5 yards. Sure, they played in different systems, but Olave’s 4.39-second 40 time clearly gives him a higher ceiling in that area.
• That said, Carr probably won’t throw deep as often as he did last season. Check the annual percentages of his passes that traveled 20+ yards downfield (according to PFF), starting with Jon Gruden’s first year as HC:
  • 2018: 9.2%
  • 2019: 9.4%
  • 2020: 11.6%
  • 2021: 11.9%
  • 2022: 14.1%
• The Saints actually had Gruden in to consult this spring, seeking to glean from the former Raiders coach what Carr does best. Allen said afterward that he’s not planning to redesign the offense but wanted to capture some of what Carr did during what he termed the most productive stretch of the QB’s career.
• Besides Olave, Carr will get WR Michael Thomas back from yet another injury. WR Rashid Shaheed brings enviable speed, which can make him both a deep threat and dangerous after the catch. The team also extended TE Juwan Johnson and added TE Foster Moreau.
• The Saints also retain the same OC, Pete Carmichael, they’ve had since 2009. Once a pass-heavy offense (with Drew Brees), that unit has passed on less than 56% of offensive plays in five of the past six seasons.
• This year’s backfield has also been restocked, adding RB Jamaal Williams in free agency and then RB Kendre Miller in Round 3 of the draft.