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Derek Carr - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Derek Carr
LVR

QB LVR

#24 Quarterback

317 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 8
Experience: 7 Yr(s)
Age: 30
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 214
40 Time: 4.67

2021 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#24 Quarterback

317 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
Not Available 364/535 4227 25 9 96

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

3d Projection

Med Floor

294.8

DS Projection

317

Consensus

38 other sites
279.85

High Ceiling

370.9

Ceiling Likelihood

Low
How likely they will reach their ceiling projection

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Carr threw for 4,103 yards, 27 TDs and 9 INTs last year, finishing 13th among QBs in total fantasy points. He ranked 17th in fantasy points per game.
  • Carr was a solid floor play, scoring at a top-12 level in 7 of 16 games. Only 9 QBs tallied more top-12 weeks.
  • He didn’t bring much upside, though, with only 1 top-5 week.
  • Among 35 qualifying QBs last year, Carr ranked 10th in completion rate and 6th in yards per attempt. He finished 8th in Pro Football Focus’ passing grades.
  • Carr’s fantasy upside was capped by a run-leaning Raiders offense. Vegas finished 23rd in pass rate and 21st in pass attempts.
  • Carr has now finished 18th, 16th and 13th among QBs in fantasy points in 3 seasons under HC Jon Gruden, who returns for 2021.
  • The Raiders return 4 of last year’s top 5 target getters: Darren Waller, Hunter Renfrow, Josh Jacobs and Henry Ruggs. WR Nelson Agholor, who finished 2nd on last year’s squad with 896 yards and 8 TDs, departed in free agency.
  • Vegas added WR John Brown and RB Kenyan Drake in free agency.
    • Brown went for 1,060 yards for the Bills back in 2019. But he’s coming off an injury-riddled 2020, turned 31 in April and was dumped by Buffalo in March.
    • Drake has caught 160 balls over the past 4 years. He’s ranked 44th, 25th, 24th and 33rd in Pro Football Focus’ receiving grade among RBs with 30+ targets in those seasons.
  • The Raiders will hope for 2nd-year leaps from Ruggs and WR Bryan Edwards. Both guys were disappointing as rookies.
  • Vegas will have 3 new starters on the offensive line this year.
    • C Rodney Hudson and G Gabe Jackson, who both fared well in Pro Football Focus’ pass-blocking grades last year, departed in free agency. Expected replacements C Andre James and G Richie Incognito figure to be downgrades.
    • 1st-round rookie Alex Leatherwood is penciled in as the starting RT. He’s a plus athlete and started for 3 seasons at Alabama -- although he mostly played LT and RG for the Tide.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Carr has been a good-not-great fantasy option in 3 seasons under HC Jon Gruden, finishing 18th, 16th and 13th among QBs in fantasy points.

This figures to remain a run-leaning offense in 2021, while questions abound at WR and along the offensive line.

We’re not expecting a big leap from Carr this season. He’s a low-upside QB2.

 

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Raiders QB Derek Carr (groin) isn't listed on the final Week 16 injury report after putting in full practices on Wednesday and Thursday. He's set to start Saturday night's game vs. the Dolphins. Between the injury and the matchup, he's just a low-end QB2.

View all Derek Carr Shark Bites »

Raiders QB Derek Carr (groin) put in a limited practice on Tuesday and split 1st-team reps with QB Marcus Mariota, HC Jon Gruden said. "We'll see how it goes this week," Gruden added. Carr was expected to be sidelined about 2 weeks with his groin injury, but it looks like Vegas is holding out hope that he'll be able to play vs. Miami on Saturday night. Stay tuned.

View all Derek Carr Shark Bites »

Raiders QB Derek Carr is expected to be out 10-14 days with the groin injury he suffered early in Thursday night's loss to the Chargers, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. So Carr figures to miss Week 16 and should be considered iffy for Week 17. QB Marcus Mariota was impressive in relief on Thursday, throwing for 226 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT -- and running for 88 yards and another score. Vegas gets a tough Dolphins defense next week, though, which figures to keep Mariota out of QB1 territory in our rankings.

View all Derek Carr Shark Bites »

Raiders QB Derek Carr suffered a groin injury in the 1st quarter of Thursday night's game vs. the Chargers and is officially questionable to return. Stay tuned for an update. QB Marcus Mariota has replaced Carr.

Update: Carr won't return to this game.

View all Derek Carr Shark Bites »

The forecast for today's Raiders-Browns game calls for sustained winds of 25-30 mph with gusts around 45 mph. If that holds, it'll be 1 of the windier games in recent memory. It'll definitely impact the deep passing and kicking games. We've scaled back our passing projections for both teams and would avoid both kickers in this game. We could see heavy doses of RBs Josh Jacobs and Kareem Hunt today.

View all Derek Carr Shark Bites »

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