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Derek Carr - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Derek Carr
LVR

QB LVR

#25 Quarterback

317 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 8
Experience: 7 Yr(s)
Age: 30
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 214
40 Time: 4.67

Weekly Outlook

Week 21 Projections

This player does not have a weekly prediction

Rest Of Way Outlook

Week 14
Carr’s recent struggles continued in a tough spot against a surging K.C. defense. Facing pressure on 45% of his drop backs — 6th most among Week 14 passers — Carr posted just 263 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. His lone score went to (who else?) Hunter Renfrow on a perfectly run route at the goal line. Sunday found Vegas without Darren Waller, but his presence likely wouldn’t have changed much in this one. A sinking team overall, Vegas heads back on the road for a Week 15 Saturday matchup at Cleveland. Carr’s not someone to rely on.
Week 13
Carr’s lackluster recent fantasy production continued in Sunday’s loss to Washington. He completed 28 of 38 passes -- a strong 73.7%. But he tallied just 249 yards (6.6 YPA) with 0 TDs. 18 of his 28 completions went to slot receiver Hunter Renfrow and RB Josh Jacobs. Carr had just 2 completions of 20+ yards.

Missing TE Darren Waller obviously hurt. But Carr has been a middling fantasy producer since losing WR Henry Ruggs. He’s ranked 8th among QBs in fantasy points in 2 of the last 5 weeks but has finished outside the top 16 in the other 3.

We’ll see if Carr gets Waller back for Sunday’s showdown with the Chiefs. If he does, Carr will be worth considering as a low-end QB1. He posted a 261-2-1 passing line vs. Kansas City back in Week 10 -- with Waller but without Ruggs.

Carr finishes the fantasy season with neutral matchups vs. the Browns and Colts, sandwiching a negative draw against the Broncos.
Week 12
Carr finished Thursday’s game at Dallas 24 for 39 for 373 yards and 1 TD. He could have had close to 500 yards if Cowboys CB Anthony Brown hadn’t been called for 4 pass-interference penalties for 91 yards, which could have been more if he hadn’t stopped receivers with his penalties. Carr was sacked 3 times for 7 yards but usually was able to go bombs away before the pass rush caught him. More mobile QB Marcus Mariota entered the game on goal-line plays and scored a 4-yard TD. Carr also had 2 carries for 21 yards, thanks to a 22-yard scramble when the Cowboys left their left flank unguarded. He joked about being “Carriota.”
The Raiders are 6-0 when Carr passes for 300 or more yards. He could do that again in the next 2 weeks against Washington, 27th in passing yards allowed, and Kansas City, 23rd. The Browns’ pass D, ranked 9th, will bring a bigger challenge on Saturday, Dec. 18.
Week 11
Playing at home in a game with big playoff implications, Carr had one of his worst games of the season. Part of the problem was that once the game was getting out of hand, the Bengals were running long drives and shortening the contest. Also, the Raiders O-line was overmatched once it was obvious that they would need to go pass heavy. Carr was unable to get any semblance of a downfield game going, and the primary focus was force-feeding Darren Waller. When that wasn’t available, most of the other passes were quick outlets to Hunter Renfrow and dump offs to Josh Jacobs. As a result, he completed 19 passes for only 215 yards along with a TD on a perfect pass to Foster Moreau, who was covered by a LB.

Even though he hasn’t thrown more than 2 TD passes in a game this year, he’s mostly been a very strong floor option. He’s only had 2 games in which he’s thrown 0 or 1 TD pass despite facing 4 teams in the top 10 against QBs. He’s also thrown for at least 260 yards in the majority of his games. And aside from a Week 16 game against the Broncos, he has 5 matchups against defenses outside the top-20 in terms of fantasy production allowed to opposing QBs. Expect him to be a borderline top-12 option the rest of the way.
Week 10
It was a tough night for Carr and the Raiders offense. The Raiders trailed the Chiefs throughout the game and were unable to sustain long drives. The Chiefs’ defense was able to disregard the rushing attack and focus on the passing game, causing Carr issues. He was able to make some very nice throws, including a 37-yard TD down the seam to Bryan Edwards. Carr finished the night 25 of 35 for 261 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT. He added 3 carries for 18 yards.
Carr now has 5 turnovers over the last 3 games and will need to fix that quickly to stop the Raiders’ 2-game losing streak. However, Carr has multiple passing TDs in 7 of 9 games this season and will have the opportunity to bounce back this week against Cincinnati. Carr is our QB12 this week against the Bengals. The Bengals defense has surrendered 6 passing TDs over their last 3 games and were destroyed by a Jets passing attack for over 420 passing yards in Week 8. The next 3 games on the schedule for the Raiders are CIN, @DAL and WSH. Carr is our QB13 the rest of the way.
Week 9
Carr threw for 296 yards and a TD and 2 INTs in the loss to the Giants, but it was the fumble late in the game that sealed the Raiders’ fate. He connected on 30 completions in 46 attempts, the 2nd straight week in which he had at least 30 completions. Carr hooked up with 7 different receivers—including 6+ receptions by 3 pass catchers. The lone passing score went to WR Hunter Renfrow in the 1st quarter. The 2 INTs in a game were a first for Carr this season.This has been a tumultuous month for the Raiders and it looks like it is starting to take its toll somewhat. The Giants defense forced a pick-6 from S Xavier McKinney (who also had the other INT) early in the 2nd half and it turned the momentum of the game. From that point forward, the Raiders aimed to throw the ball more which plays to the strengths of the Giants D. Carr almost managed the full comeback before fumbling the ball away on the Giants 13-yard line with under a minute to play. The Raiders have scored 16 or fewer points in each of the 3 losses on the year while scoring at least 30 in 4 of their 5 wins. Carr lost his deep threat but gained another as WR DeSean Jackson now dons the silver and black. A huge divisional game this week against the Chiefs could make for a shootout scenario.
Week 7
Any guess as to who leads the league in 300-yard passing games this season? Hint: If the answer were anyone other than Carr, then it probably wouldn’t be appearing in his write-up.

Carr delivered his 5th game of 300+ yards through 7 weeks with his 323-yard, 2-TD outing in the win over Philly. Matthew Stafford checks in next with 4, while 8 others sit tied with 3.

Even without top target Darren Waller (ankle), Carr completed an absurd 31 of his 34 passes (91.1%) against the Eagles. He found Waller replacement Foster Moreau and WR Bryan Edwards for scores from 18 yards and 1 yard out, respectively, allowing Josh Jacobs and Kenyan Drake to run in the team’s 2 other TDs.

Carr now sits 9th among fantasy QBs in total points and has finished 5 of 7 weeks as a top-12 QB. And it doesn’t look like we should expect him to fall off. The Raiders get the league’s best QB-scoring schedule the rest of the way, according to our Strength-of-Schedule calculations. The worst remaining matchup by current numbers is a Week 16 home date with the Broncos, who just allowed Carr 341 yards, 2 TDs and 25 fantasy points in Denver in Week 6.
Week 6
Carr completed 18 of 27 passes for 341 yards and 2 TDs in Las Vegas' 34-24 Week 6 blowout over the Broncos.
Carr connected on several big plays with 5 passes of 30+ yards, including a 48-yarder to Henry Ruggs and a 51-yarder to Bryan Edwards. It was a combination of luck and skill as Carr literally just chucks the ball down field when he is under pressure and his WRs were able to make some plays as they dominated the Broncos secondary.
Carr did have an excellent touch pass to Kenyan Drake for a 31-yard TD on a wheel route at the end of the 1st half.
Carr and the Raiders have been pretty hit or miss this season and have a good matchup in Week 7 against the Eagles, where Carr should be viewed as a borderline QB1.
Week 5
Carr played his worst game of the season against the Bears. He completed 22 of 35 passes for 205 yards and an INT. While he threw for 10 fewer yards last week, his 2 TDs helped salvage his day.

It's been a major letdown for Carr after he threw for 385 yards or more and 2 TDs in each of the first 3 games. The upcoming schedule for the Raiders isn’t exactly conducive to monster passing performances with both the Broncos and Eagles being in the bottom 5 for passing yards allowed.

Avoiding Carr in the short term seems like the move assuming you can pivot to a more reliable option. If he flashes the production we saw through the first 3 games, feel free to go back. But don’t expect to see that production anytime soon.
Week 4
Carr completed 21 of 34 passes for 196 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT in the Raiders' Week 4 loss to the Chargers on Monday night.
Carr and the Raiders were absolutely horrible in the 1st half as they had just 1 first down and fell behind 21-0 going in to the break.
The offense was able to pick it up in the 3rd quarter with 2 quick TDs, but ultimately their horrible first half cost them the game.
Carr threw TD passes to Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller and is a borderline QB1 play in Week 5 against the Bears.
Week 3
Carr went off for the 3rd straight game, this time firing off 386 yards and 2 scores against Miami. He set himself up for fantasy success by throwing an ugly pick-6 in the 1st quarter. The Fins jumped out to a 14-0 lead before a safety clearly changed momentum. Sunday’s game also went until the end of OT. So, sure, 81 plays and 43 attempts helped Carr produce, but he’s doing well to showcase a variety of pass catchers behind Darren Waller — especially Henry Ruggs and Hunter Renfrow. He’s back in the QB1 mix for a Week 4 date against the Chargers.
Week 2
Despite playing on a short week and a cross-country, early time zone game, Carr dominated the tough Steelers defense. Of course, it helped that T.J. Watt left the game in the 1st quarter and top CB Joe Haden was out, but the Raiders were without both starting guards, making Carr’s performance even more impressive. The coaching staff had Carr throw out of multiple-TE sets, often allowing him to beat base defenses with just 4 players in the secondary. Unlike in Week 1 when he threw mostly to Darren Waller, Carr made use of all his receivers.

Going into the season the turnover on the OL seemed like it would cause concern for Carr, who in the past was very sensitive to pressure. However, coach Jon Gruden continues to use personnel groupings and schemed plays to get the best out of Carr. With two of the Raiders’ tougher matchups of the season out of the way, there’s no reason to think that Carr can’t compete to finish as a top-12 QB.
Week 1
Despite a slow start, Carr was able to put together a very strong performance. He completed 34/56 passes for 435 yards and 2 TDs and 1 INT. Adding two additional drives in overtime didn't hurt. Going forward, there is some reason to have optimism with Carr and the pass attack. Not only can he lean on TE Darren Waller, but the emergence of Bryan Edwards to go with Henry Ruggs provides some extra intrigue out wide. Will Carr be a plug and play option from here on out? Of course not. But, can he be a great streaming option in plus matchups? We think so. For a Week 2 date at Pittsburgh, though, he should be on fantasy benches.

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Carr threw for 4,103 yards, 27 TDs and 9 INTs last year, finishing 13th among QBs in total fantasy points. He ranked 17th in fantasy points per game.
  • Carr was a solid floor play, scoring at a top-12 level in 7 of 16 games. Only 9 QBs tallied more top-12 weeks.
  • He didn’t bring much upside, though, with only 1 top-5 week.
  • Among 35 qualifying QBs last year, Carr ranked 10th in completion rate and 6th in yards per attempt. He finished 8th in Pro Football Focus’ passing grades.
  • Carr’s fantasy upside was capped by a run-leaning Raiders offense. Vegas finished 23rd in pass rate and 21st in pass attempts.
  • Carr has now finished 18th, 16th and 13th among QBs in fantasy points in 3 seasons under HC Jon Gruden, who returns for 2021.
  • The Raiders return 4 of last year’s top 5 target getters: Darren Waller, Hunter Renfrow, Josh Jacobs and Henry Ruggs. WR Nelson Agholor, who finished 2nd on last year’s squad with 896 yards and 8 TDs, departed in free agency.
  • Vegas added WR John Brown and RB Kenyan Drake in free agency.
    • Brown went for 1,060 yards for the Bills back in 2019. But he’s coming off an injury-riddled 2020, turned 31 in April and was dumped by Buffalo in March.
    • Drake has caught 160 balls over the past 4 years. He’s ranked 44th, 25th, 24th and 33rd in Pro Football Focus’ receiving grade among RBs with 30+ targets in those seasons.
  • The Raiders will hope for 2nd-year leaps from Ruggs and WR Bryan Edwards. Both guys were disappointing as rookies.
  • Vegas will have 3 new starters on the offensive line this year.
    • C Rodney Hudson and G Gabe Jackson, who both fared well in Pro Football Focus’ pass-blocking grades last year, departed in free agency. Expected replacements C Andre James and G Richie Incognito figure to be downgrades.
    • 1st-round rookie Alex Leatherwood is penciled in as the starting RT. He’s a plus athlete and started for 3 seasons at Alabama -- although he mostly played LT and RG for the Tide.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Carr has been a good-not-great fantasy option in 3 seasons under HC Jon Gruden, finishing 18th, 16th and 13th among QBs in fantasy points.

This figures to remain a run-leaning offense in 2021, while questions abound at WR and along the offensive line.

We’re not expecting a big leap from Carr this season. He’s a low-upside QB2.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Raiders HC Jon Gruden is resigning, according to NFL Network's Tom Pelissero. The move comes 3 days after the Wall Street Journal reported 10-year-old emails in which Gruden used racially offensive language in talking about DeMaurice Smith. Earlier today, the New York Times reported on other emails in which Gruden used racist and homophobic language. We'll see about the succession plan for the Raiders and how the players handle the transition, though we're not altering our fantasy outlook for any of the players.

Update: The Raiders have made assistant HC and special-teams coordinator Rich Bisaccia to interim HC. Bisaccia coached in Tampa for Gruden's entire stint there (plus another 2 years after Gruden left), then with the Chargers and Cowboys before re-joining Gruden with the 2018 Raiders.

View all Derek Carr Shark Bites »

Raiders QB Derek Carr took a shot to the helmet on a QB sneak on the 1st play of the 4th quarter in Sunday's game against the Bears. Carr was able to get off the field under his own power but headed straight to the medical tent. Stay tuned for updates.

Update: Carr re-entered after missing a few plays.

View all Derek Carr Shark Bites »

Raiders QB Derek Carr (ankle) put in a full week of practice and isn’t listed on the final injury report. Carr has turned in QB9 and QB8 weekly finishes so far this season and is a viable fantasy start vs. the Dolphins on Sunday.

View all Derek Carr Shark Bites »

Raiders QB Derek Carr (ankle) put in a full practice on Wednesday. HC Jon Gruden confirmed afterward that Carr is "ready to go" for this weekend's game vs. the Dolphins. Carr, who sits 5th among QBs in fantasy points so far, is a viable QB1 play in Week 3.

View all Derek Carr Shark Bites »

Raiders HC Jon Gruden on Monday deemed QB Derek Carr questionable for Sunday's game against the Dolphins because of an ankle sprain, according to NFL Network's Tom Pelissero. Carr played every offensive snap in the Week 2 win at Pittsburgh, so it's not clear just when the injury occurred. With backup Marcus Mariota already on IR for a quad injury, the Raiders would need to turn to Nathan Peterman if Carr can't go. If that happens, try to use the Miami defense.

Update: Ian Rapoport reports that Gruden said he thinks Carr will be able to play this week, after they saw results of the MRI on Carr's ankle.

View all Derek Carr Shark Bites »

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