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Derek Carr - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsDerek Carr's Basic Stats

Derek Carr
ADP: 13.3
Bye: 11
Experience: 9 Yr(s)
Age: 32.5
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 210
40 Time: 4.69
SPARQx (Rank): 102.80 (87%)
Burst Score (Rank): 115.40 (72%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.20 (79%)

Derek Carr's Weekly Outlook

Week 4 Projections
Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
0 0 0 0 0
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
241.9 1.3 1 9.9 14.8

Derek Carr's 2023 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#24 Quarterback

236.2 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
13.3 341.3/521 3869.6 20 15.5 33 158.9 4

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsDerek Carr's Preseason Player Analysis

View QB Fantasy Rankings »
Bottom Line

Carr has been a solid – and unspectacular – fantasy QB for a long time. Odds are he’ll be fine in his new digs, with a solid set of skill-position players around him and an experienced coaching staff. Ultimately, though, he’s unlikely to be a fantasy difference maker.

Feel free to draft Carr late as a backup in 1-QB formats and QB2 in best ball. He could be an upside option (at cost) for 2-QB and superflex formats.

What We Learned Last Year
  • We learned that the Raiders suddenly discovered they were paying Carr too much money.
  • His 2022 numbers did drop in a number of categories vs. previous:
    • 60.8% completion rate was Carr’s lowest since his 2014 rookie campaign.
    • 7.0 yards per pass attempt was his lowest since 2017, despite the deepest average target depth of his career (by more than a yard).
    • 2.8% INT rate was the worst of his career.
    • 86.3 passer rating was his worst since 2014.
    • 65.4 Pro Football Focus passing grade was his worst since 2014.
    • 70.8% adjusted completion rate was worst since 2014.
  • Carr finished a decent 16th among fantasy QBs; 20th in points per game among multi-game starters.
  • A 4.8% TD rate helped. That tied for 12th in the league and was the fourth-best rate of Carr’s career.
  • Carr finished his last pre-Josh McDaniels season 12th among fantasy QBs; 14th in points per game.
  • Vegas benched Carr for the final two games last season and then released him on Valentine’s Day. (Feel that love.)
What to Expect in 2023
  • The Saints clearly disagreed with the Raiders’ assessment of Carr. They signed the vet less than a month after his release to a four-year, $150 million contract that includes $100 million in guarantees.
  • HC Dennis Allen said they targeted Carr as soon as it became clear he was done in Vegas. Allen says he values intelligence highly at QB and called Carr “one of the more intelligent people I’ve ever been around in terms of football knowledge.”
  • Carr won’t have Davante Adams in New Orleans. But he’ll have a much younger deep threat. Chris Olave’s average depth of target beat Adams’ by more than 3.5 yards. Sure, they played in different systems, but Olave’s 4.39-second 40 time clearly gives him a higher ceiling in that area.
  • That said, Carr probably won’t throw deep as often as he did last season. Check the annual percentages of his passes that traveled 20+ yards downfield (according to PFF), starting with Jon Gruden’s first year as HC:
    • 2018: 9.2%
    • 2019: 9.4%
    • 2020: 11.6%
    • 2021: 11.9%
    • 2022: 14.1%
  • The Saints actually had Gruden in to consult this spring, seeking to glean from the former Raiders coach what Carr does best. Allen said afterward that he’s not planning to redesign the offense but wanted to capture some of what Carr did during what he termed the most productive stretch of the QB’s career.
  • Besides Olave, Carr will get WR Michael Thomas back from yet another injury. WR Rashid Shaheed brings enviable speed, which can make him both a deep threat and dangerous after the catch. The team also extended TE Juwan Johnson and added TE Foster Moreau.
  • The Saints also retain the same OC, Pete Carmichael, they’ve had since 2009. Once a pass-heavy offense (with Drew Brees), that unit has passed on less than 56% of offensive plays in five of the past six seasons.
  • This year’s backfield has also been restocked, adding RB Jamaal Williams in free agency and then RB Kendre Miller in Round 3 of the draft.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Derek Carr, QB NO

16 hours ago

Derek Carr questionable for Week 4

Saints QB Derek Carr (shoulder) returned to a limited practice on Friday and is listed as questionable for this weekend's game vs. the Bucs. After watching the beginning of Friday's workout, insider Nick Underhill believes Carr has a legitimate chance to start on Sunday. "Looked sharp throwing passes today," Underhill tweeted. "Led the first-team offense. Had good velocity. Accurate. Threw downfield during routes on air. Sharp in red zone. Saw nothing that appeared limiting." HC Dennis Allen, meanwhile, said that the team will see how Carr's shoulder responds to the Friday work before deciding whether he'll play against Tampa Bay. We'll keep you updated on the situation and get New Orleans' inactives around 11:30 am ET on Sunday. QB Jameis Winston will start for the Saints if Carr can't.

View all Derek Carr Shark Bites »

ESPN's Adam Schefter tweets that the Saints will be "cautious" with QB Derek Carr's shoulder injury. "It would be a surprise if Carr played Sunday vs. the Bucs," Schefter adds. It's looking like QB Jameis Winston will get the start against the team that took him No. 1 overall in the 2015 NFL Draft.

View all Derek Carr Shark Bites »

Saints HC Dennis Allen labeled QB Derek Carr "week-to-week" with the AC sprain in his throwing shoulder. "I think we dodged a bullet there in terms of anything of real significance," Allen said. "I think we’re kind of saying week to week, but again, he felt better today than he did yesterday, so we’re not making any decisions today." We're tentatively expecting QB Jameis Winston to start Sunday's game vs. the Bucs but will keep tabs on Carr's progress throughout the week.

View all Derek Carr Shark Bites »

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports that Saints QB Derek Carr is believed to have suffered an AC joint sprain in his right shoulder. Carr reportedly avoided "major" injury to the joint, but Rapoport says he'd be "a little surprised" if Carr were able to play in Week 4. Assuming he doesn't, Jameis Winston would get the start against Tampa Bay. Winston threw for 101 yards on 10-of-16 passing in relief against the Packers on Sunday. He's worth a pickup in superflex leagues for Week 4.

View all Derek Carr Shark Bites »

Saints QB Derek Carr is believed to have suffered an AC sprain in his throwing shoulder in Sunday's loss to the Packers, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. "When he plays will be determined by the swelling and how he gains mobility," Rapoport adds. It's relatively good news after what looked like a more serious injury. We'll look for a timeline for Carr's return.

View all Derek Carr Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View QB Dynasty Rankings »

Derek Carr, QB NO
Dynasty MVP 178.1
Position Rank #35 QB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
572
941
1,556
Dynasty Write-up
The Raiders granted Carr's request for release on February 15th. Weeks later, the career-long Raider landed in New Orleans. We'll see what Michael Thomas has left in the tank, but there's at least a young WR1 in place with Chris Olave. Carr is still fairly young at 32.
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