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Derek Carr - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsDerek Carr's Basic Stats

Derek Carr
ADP: 9.12
Bye: 6
Experience: 8 Yr(s)
Age: 31.2
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 210
40 Time: 4.69
SPARQx (Rank): 102.80 (87%)
Burst Score (Rank): 115.40 (72%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.20 (79%)

Derek Carr's 2022 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#22 Quarterback

312.7 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
9.12 418.8/607 4734.6 31 11.5 36 104.4 2.8

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsDerek Carr's Preseason Player Analysis

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What You Need to Know:
  • Carr chucked for 4,804 yards and 23 TDs on a 68.4% completion rate and 7.7 yards per attempt last year.
  • The 4,804 yards were a career high and ranked 5th league-wide, just behind Patrick Mahomes and right ahead of Joe Burrow.
  • Carr’s 23 passing scores ranked just 13th.
  • His 3.7% passing TD rate was the 3rd-lowest mark of his 8-year career and ranked 23rd among 33 qualifying QBs.
  • Carr finished 13th among QBs in fantasy points, depending on the scoring system.
  • He finished 13th, 16th and 18th at the position in fantasy points over the previous 3 seasons.
  • The Raiders swung a trade in March for WR Davante Adams.
    • The 29-year-old leads the NFL in catches, receiving yards and receiving TDs over the past 4 seasons.
    • His ranks in Pro Football Focus’ receiving grades those 4 years: 8th, 4th, 1st and 2nd.
    • Carr and Adams played together for 2 seasons at Fresno State, connecting for 3,031 yards and 38 TDs.
  • Vegas also returns WR Hunter Renfrow, TE Darren Waller and RBs Josh Jacobs and Kenyan Drake.
  • The 2021 Raiders ranked 22nd in Pro Football Focus’ pass-blocking grades and 18th in adjusted sack rate. They’ll get G Denzelle Good back after he tore an ACL in last year’s opener but otherwise return a similar O-line.
  • Carr will play under a new coaching staff led by HC Josh McDaniels.
    • McDaniels has 14 seasons of OC experience, 13 of which came under HC Bill Belichick in New England. He also had a 1-year stint with the Rams.
    • McDaniels spent close to 2 seasons as Broncos HC, getting fired 12 games into his 2nd campaign.
      • Those Denver teams ranked 15th and 9th in situation-neutral pass rate and 9th and 7th in pass attempts, despite being quarterbacked by Kyle Orton and Tim Tebow.
Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Carr is coming off a career high in passing yards and QB13 fantasy finish, despite a below-average TD rate.

That TD rate should rebound in 2022, especially with the arrival of WR Davante Adams. WR Hunter Renfrow and TE Darren Waller are also back, giving Carr the best group of weapons of his career. We’ll see what the offense looks like under new HC Josh McDaniels, but we’re expecting it to be pass leaning.

Carr’s lack of rushing ability caps the fantasy ceiling, but he has a good chance to provide at least low-end QB1 production this year.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Derek Carr, QB LVR

11:00am EDT 5/20/22

Major change for Vegas O-line?

According to Raiders beat writer Tashan Reed, the Raiders will hold “active competitions” for 4 starting O-line spots. That includes LG, C, RG and RT, with only Kolton Miller locked in at LT. This unit will be under the tutelage of OL coach Carmen Bricillo, formerly with HC Josh McDaniels in New England. The potentially high turnover here is worth monitoring for Derek Carr and the Vegas offense.

View all Derek Carr Shark Bites »

The Raiders and QB Derek Carr agreed to a 3-year, $121.5 million contract extension, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. That makes Carr the league's 5th-highest-paid QB and keeps him in Vegas through the 2025 season. WR Davante Adams is signed through 2026. Carr has finished between QB13 and QB16 in each of the last 3 seasons and has upside beyond that in 2022.

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Raiders HC Josh McDaniels said “there’s no doubt about it” when asked if QB Derek Carr will remain with Las Vegas for next season. "I really am excited about this opportunity to work together," McDaniels said. "I know what he's done. And I know what we might be able to do going forward together." McDaniels, speaking at the Combine, said that the team hasn’t yet opened extension talks with the veteran passer. Carr, 31, has often been floated as a potential trade chip in an offseason that's lacking even decent available starting QBs. He enters a contract year alongside the new HC and new GM Dave Ziegler.

View all Derek Carr Shark Bites »

The Raiders are prepared to give QB Derek Carr a contract extension that would keep him with the team beyond 2022, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Carr has 1 year left on his current deal, but new HC Josh McDaniels and GM Dave Ziegler reportedly want to commit to him long term. And McDaniels was Carr's top choice for HC, according to Rapoport.

View all Derek Carr Shark Bites »

The Raiders are set to hire Josh McDaniels as their new HC, ESPN Adam Schefter reports. McDaniels has spent 13 of the past 16 seasons as New England's OC under Bill Belichick. In between his 2 stints with the Pats, McDaniels spent a little less than 2 years as Denver's HC. He went 8-8 in the 1st season and then 3-9 in the 2nd before getting fired after Week 13. We'll see if McDaniels fares better in his 2nd chance at a HC job.

View all Derek Carr Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View QB Dynasty Rankings »

Derek Carr, QB LVR
Dynasty MVP 271.4
Position Rank #22 QB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
892
1,456
2,257
Dynasty Write-up
Carr wasn't anything special as a fantasy passer in 2021, despite finishing 5th in attempts. 2022 is slated to be a contract year under new HC Josh McDaniels. We're thinking Carr will want to stick around after Vegas made a blockbuster trade for Davante Adams.

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