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Derek Carr - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsDerek Carr's Basic Stats

Derek Carr
ADP: N/A
Bye: 6
Experience: 8 Yr(s)
Age: 31.8
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 210
40 Time: 4.69
SPARQx (Rank): 102.80 (87%)
Burst Score (Rank): 115.40 (72%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.20 (79%)

Derek Carr's Weekly Outlook

This is a regular season feature

We’ll have detailed analysis of this player’s performance added here after each week’s game. Weekly outlooks are posted Tuesday at 1pm EST each week.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Derek Carr's 2022 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#16 Quarterback

288.9 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
Not Available 418.8/607 4434.6 28.3 12.3 36 104.4 2.9

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsDerek Carr's Preseason Player Analysis

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What You Need to Know:
  • Carr chucked for 4,804 yards and 23 TDs on a 68.4% completion rate and 7.7 yards per attempt last year.
  • The 4,804 yards were a career high and ranked 5th league-wide, just behind Patrick Mahomes and right ahead of Joe Burrow.
  • Carr’s 23 passing scores ranked just 13th.
  • His 3.7% passing TD rate was the 3rd-lowest mark of his 8-year career and ranked 23rd among 33 qualifying QBs.
  • Carr finished 13th among QBs in fantasy points, depending on the scoring system.
  • He finished 13th, 16th and 18th at the position in fantasy points over the previous 3 seasons.
  • The Raiders swung a trade in March for WR Davante Adams.
    • The 29-year-old leads the NFL in catches, receiving yards and receiving TDs over the past 4 seasons.
    • His ranks in Pro Football Focus’ receiving grades those 4 years: 8th, 4th, 1st and 2nd.
    • Carr and Adams played together for 2 seasons at Fresno State, connecting for 3,031 yards and 38 TDs.
  • Vegas also returns WR Hunter Renfrow, TE Darren Waller and RBs Josh Jacobs and Kenyan Drake.
  • The 2021 Raiders ranked 22nd in Pro Football Focus’ pass-blocking grades and 18th in adjusted sack rate. They’ll get G Denzelle Good back after he tore an ACL in last year’s opener but otherwise return a similar O-line.
  • Carr will play under a new coaching staff led by HC Josh McDaniels.
    • McDaniels has 14 seasons of OC experience, 13 of which came under HC Bill Belichick in New England. He also had a 1-year stint with the Rams.
    • McDaniels spent close to 2 seasons as Broncos HC, getting fired 12 games into his 2nd campaign.
      • Those Denver teams ranked 15th and 9th in situation-neutral pass rate and 9th and 7th in pass attempts, despite being quarterbacked by Kyle Orton and Tim Tebow.
Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Carr is coming off a career high in passing yards and QB13 fantasy finish, despite a below-average TD rate.

That TD rate should rebound in 2022, especially with the arrival of WR Davante Adams. WR Hunter Renfrow and TE Darren Waller are also back, giving Carr the best group of weapons of his career. We’ll see what the offense looks like under new HC Josh McDaniels, but we’re expecting it to be pass leaning.

Carr’s lack of rushing ability caps the fantasy ceiling, but he has a good chance to provide at least low-end QB1 production this year.

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Derek Carr, QB LVR

10:51am EST 1/12/23

Raiders evaluating trade options

The Raiders are officially looking into trading QB Derek Carr, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Making the process even more official is a public goodbye letter the QB wrote to Raiders fans. This has been the obvious path since the team benched Carr in favor of QB Jarrett Stidham for the final 2 games. Rapoport says there's a "firm deadline of Feb. 15" to work something out. That's when Carr's $40.4 million salary for each of the next 2 seasons would become fully guaranteed. In a QB-hungry league, this motivated seller should be able to work something out. Carr does possess a no-trade clause, giving him power to choose the destination. We'll see how the whole situation plays out and who starts at QB for the 2023 Raiders (Tom Brady?).

View all Derek Carr Shark Bites »

The Raiders are expected to explore trade options for QB Derek Carr this offseason, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Rapoport adds that there are "scenarios" in which Carr remains with Vegas but believes he'll "almost certainly" be playing elsewhere in 2023. Carr's $32.9 million base salary for 2023 becomes fully guaranteed 3 days after the Super Bowl, so a move figures to happen by then. Carr never looked comfortable in HC Josh McDaniels' offense this season. His 60.8% completion rate is his worst since his 2014 rookie campaign; his 7.0 yards per attempt his worst since 2017. Carr turns 32 in March.

View all Derek Carr Shark Bites »

Raiders HC Josh McDaniels announced on Wednesday that the team will move forward with QB Jarrett Stidham as the starter. This news effectively ends QB Derek Carr's 2022 season. The short-term fantasy outlook of this move certainly lowers expectations for all Raiders players in Week 17 vs. the 49ers. From a broader perspective, Ari Meirov of PFF reports that Carr's contract has $40.4 million which becomes guaranteed if he's unable to pass a physical. The Raiders would save $29.25 million in cap space if they decided to trade or cut Carr from the roster within 3 days of the conclusion of Super Bowl LVII on February 12, 2023. Plainly speaking, we could see the veteran signal-caller suit up for a new team in 2023 and beyond. This will certainly be a massive storyline in the offseason. Stay tuned as the situation evolves in the coming months.

View all Jarrett Stidham Shark Bites »

Raiders QB Derek Carr went just 16 of 30 passing for 174 yards in Saturday night's loss to the Steelers. He threw just 1 TD pass -- to WR Hunter Renfrow -- and 3 INTs while taking 3 sacks. WR Davante Adams managed only 2 receptions for 15 yards on a team-high 9 targets. TE Darren Waller led Vegas with 58 receiving yards on 4 catches. Renfrow matched him with 4 receptions for 42 yards. The Raiders head back home to face a difficult 49ers defense in Week 17.

View all Derek Carr Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View QB Dynasty Rankings »

Derek Carr, QB LVR
Dynasty MVP 225.9
Position Rank #24 QB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
824
1,345
1,345
Dynasty Write-up
Carr’s fantasy prospects looked promising following the arrivals of HC Josh McDaniels and WR Davante Adams. While Adams was a hit, injuries to other key members of the offense limited Carr’s QB1 value in 2022. Carr’s signed through 2025, but he looks to be on the outs in 2023 following a late-season benching. The career-long Raider turns 32 in March.
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