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Derek Carr - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Derek Carr
LVR

QB LVR

#25 Quarterback

317 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 8
Experience: 7 Yr(s)
Age: 30
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 214
40 Time: 4.67

Weekly Outlook

3d Projection

Med Floor

14.4

DS Projection

18.7

Consensus

38 other sites
20

Low Ceiling

22.3

Rest of
Season

21.1

Week 6 Projections
Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
262 1.5 1 6 18.7
Weekly Writeup
With Jon Gruden out, this offense carries an extra element of unknown into a tough date with Denver. Carr already figures to have his hands full with the Broncos pass rush.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
270 1.7 0.6 8 21.1
Week 5
Carr played his worst game of the season against the Bears. He completed 22 of 35 passes for 205 yards and an INT. While he threw for 10 fewer yards last week, his 2 TDs helped salvage his day.

It's been a major letdown for Carr after he threw for 385 yards or more and 2 TDs in each of the first 3 games. The upcoming schedule for the Raiders isn’t exactly conducive to monster passing performances with both the Broncos and Eagles being in the bottom 5 for passing yards allowed.

Avoiding Carr in the short term seems like the move assuming you can pivot to a more reliable option. If he flashes the production we saw through the first 3 games, feel free to go back. But don’t expect to see that production anytime soon.
Week 4
Carr completed 21 of 34 passes for 196 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT in the Raiders' Week 4 loss to the Chargers on Monday night.
Carr and the Raiders were absolutely horrible in the 1st half as they had just 1 first down and fell behind 21-0 going in to the break.
The offense was able to pick it up in the 3rd quarter with 2 quick TDs, but ultimately their horrible first half cost them the game.
Carr threw TD passes to Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller and is a borderline QB1 play in Week 5 against the Bears.
Week 3
Carr went off for the 3rd straight game, this time firing off 386 yards and 2 scores against Miami. He set himself up for fantasy success by throwing an ugly pick-6 in the 1st quarter. The Fins jumped out to a 14-0 lead before a safety clearly changed momentum. Sunday’s game also went until the end of OT. So, sure, 81 plays and 43 attempts helped Carr produce, but he’s doing well to showcase a variety of pass catchers behind Darren Waller — especially Henry Ruggs and Hunter Renfrow. He’s back in the QB1 mix for a Week 4 date against the Chargers.
Week 2
Despite playing on a short week and a cross-country, early time zone game, Carr dominated the tough Steelers defense. Of course, it helped that T.J. Watt left the game in the 1st quarter and top CB Joe Haden was out, but the Raiders were without both starting guards, making Carr’s performance even more impressive. The coaching staff had Carr throw out of multiple-TE sets, often allowing him to beat base defenses with just 4 players in the secondary. Unlike in Week 1 when he threw mostly to Darren Waller, Carr made use of all his receivers.

Going into the season the turnover on the OL seemed like it would cause concern for Carr, who in the past was very sensitive to pressure. However, coach Jon Gruden continues to use personnel groupings and schemed plays to get the best out of Carr. With two of the Raiders’ tougher matchups of the season out of the way, there’s no reason to think that Carr can’t compete to finish as a top-12 QB.
Week 1
Despite a slow start, Carr was able to put together a very strong performance. He completed 34/56 passes for 435 yards and 2 TDs and 1 INT. Adding two additional drives in overtime didn't hurt. Going forward, there is some reason to have optimism with Carr and the pass attack. Not only can he lean on TE Darren Waller, but the emergence of Bryan Edwards to go with Henry Ruggs provides some extra intrigue out wide. Will Carr be a plug and play option from here on out? Of course not. But, can he be a great streaming option in plus matchups? We think so. For a Week 2 date at Pittsburgh, though, he should be on fantasy benches.

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Carr threw for 4,103 yards, 27 TDs and 9 INTs last year, finishing 13th among QBs in total fantasy points. He ranked 17th in fantasy points per game.
  • Carr was a solid floor play, scoring at a top-12 level in 7 of 16 games. Only 9 QBs tallied more top-12 weeks.
  • He didn’t bring much upside, though, with only 1 top-5 week.
  • Among 35 qualifying QBs last year, Carr ranked 10th in completion rate and 6th in yards per attempt. He finished 8th in Pro Football Focus’ passing grades.
  • Carr’s fantasy upside was capped by a run-leaning Raiders offense. Vegas finished 23rd in pass rate and 21st in pass attempts.
  • Carr has now finished 18th, 16th and 13th among QBs in fantasy points in 3 seasons under HC Jon Gruden, who returns for 2021.
  • The Raiders return 4 of last year’s top 5 target getters: Darren Waller, Hunter Renfrow, Josh Jacobs and Henry Ruggs. WR Nelson Agholor, who finished 2nd on last year’s squad with 896 yards and 8 TDs, departed in free agency.
  • Vegas added WR John Brown and RB Kenyan Drake in free agency.
    • Brown went for 1,060 yards for the Bills back in 2019. But he’s coming off an injury-riddled 2020, turned 31 in April and was dumped by Buffalo in March.
    • Drake has caught 160 balls over the past 4 years. He’s ranked 44th, 25th, 24th and 33rd in Pro Football Focus’ receiving grade among RBs with 30+ targets in those seasons.
  • The Raiders will hope for 2nd-year leaps from Ruggs and WR Bryan Edwards. Both guys were disappointing as rookies.
  • Vegas will have 3 new starters on the offensive line this year.
    • C Rodney Hudson and G Gabe Jackson, who both fared well in Pro Football Focus’ pass-blocking grades last year, departed in free agency. Expected replacements C Andre James and G Richie Incognito figure to be downgrades.
    • 1st-round rookie Alex Leatherwood is penciled in as the starting RT. He’s a plus athlete and started for 3 seasons at Alabama -- although he mostly played LT and RG for the Tide.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Carr has been a good-not-great fantasy option in 3 seasons under HC Jon Gruden, finishing 18th, 16th and 13th among QBs in fantasy points.

This figures to remain a run-leaning offense in 2021, while questions abound at WR and along the offensive line.

We’re not expecting a big leap from Carr this season. He’s a low-upside QB2.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Raiders HC Jon Gruden is resigning, according to NFL Network's Tom Pelissero. The move comes 3 days after the Wall Street Journal reported 10-year-old emails in which Gruden used racially offensive language in talking about DeMaurice Smith. Earlier today, the New York Times reported on other emails in which Gruden used racist and homophobic language. We'll see about the succession plan for the Raiders and how the players handle the transition, though we're not altering our fantasy outlook for any of the players.

Update: The Raiders have made assistant HC and special-teams coordinator Rich Bisaccia to interim HC. Bisaccia coached in Tampa for Gruden's entire stint there (plus another 2 years after Gruden left), then with the Chargers and Cowboys before re-joining Gruden with the 2018 Raiders.

View all Derek Carr Shark Bites »

Raiders QB Derek Carr took a shot to the helmet on a QB sneak on the 1st play of the 4th quarter in Sunday's game against the Bears. Carr was able to get off the field under his own power but headed straight to the medical tent. Stay tuned for updates.

Update: Carr re-entered after missing a few plays.

View all Derek Carr Shark Bites »

Raiders QB Derek Carr (ankle) put in a full week of practice and isn’t listed on the final injury report. Carr has turned in QB9 and QB8 weekly finishes so far this season and is a viable fantasy start vs. the Dolphins on Sunday.

View all Derek Carr Shark Bites »

Raiders QB Derek Carr (ankle) put in a full practice on Wednesday. HC Jon Gruden confirmed afterward that Carr is "ready to go" for this weekend's game vs. the Dolphins. Carr, who sits 5th among QBs in fantasy points so far, is a viable QB1 play in Week 3.

View all Derek Carr Shark Bites »

Raiders HC Jon Gruden on Monday deemed QB Derek Carr questionable for Sunday's game against the Dolphins because of an ankle sprain, according to NFL Network's Tom Pelissero. Carr played every offensive snap in the Week 2 win at Pittsburgh, so it's not clear just when the injury occurred. With backup Marcus Mariota already on IR for a quad injury, the Raiders would need to turn to Nathan Peterman if Carr can't go. If that happens, try to use the Miami defense.

Update: Ian Rapoport reports that Gruden said he thinks Carr will be able to play this week, after they saw results of the MRI on Carr's ankle.

View all Derek Carr Shark Bites »

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