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Derek Carr - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsDerek Carr’s Basic Stats

Derek Carr
ADP: N/A
Bye: 12
Experience: 10
Age: 33.7
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 215
40 Time: 4.69

SPARQx (Rank): 102.80 (85%)
Burst Score (Rank): 115.40 (70%)

Derek Carr's Weekly Outlook

Week 13 Projections
Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
225 1.45 0.5 5.2 14.6
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
224.8 1.6 0.6 5.9 15

Derek Carr's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#24 Quarterback

208.7 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
Not Available 286.9/426.8 3204.4 21.24 8.8 27.4 77.6 3.7

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsDerek Carr's Preseason Player Analysis

View QB Fantasy Rankings »

Bottom Line

At 33 years old, Carr is on the backend of his career. Last year, he relied on checkdowns to Alvin Kamara despite having a weapon like Chris Olave on the team.

If the Saints struggle to be in playoff contention, Carr may even be benched as they begin moving toward the future of the position.

Carr remains a low-ceiling option as a QB3 who could have a spike week or two against poor defenses.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Carr finished as the QB16 in total fantasy points and QB27 in points per game.
  • His 3,614 passing yards ranked 15th among QBs. His 21 TDs ranked 13th.
  • He played in all 17 games for the Saints in 2023, but he did suffer various injuries, including a concussion and a sprained A/C joint in his throwing shoulder.
  • He had six top-12 finishes. He also had four QB25 or worse finishes.
  • Carr’s per-game averages were in line with his career averages:
    • 68.4% completion rate (64.9% for his career)
    • 228.1 yards (245.9)
    • 1.47 TDs (1.52)
    • 0.47 INTs (0.67)
    • 7.3 adjusted yards per pass attempt (7.1)
  • In the four games without Kamara, Carr’s per-game averages were generally unaffected:
    • 68.7% completion rate
    • 225 yards
    • 1.5 TDs
    • 0.5 INTs
    • 8.17 adjusted yards per pass attempt
  • Among 45 QBs with 135+ dropbacks last year, Carr ranked:
    • 16th in Pro Football passing grade (77.0)
    • 29th in Big Time Throw percentage (3.2%)
    • 8th lowest Turnover Worthy Play percentage (2.3%)
    • 38th in Time to Throw (2.69 seconds)
    • 5th in Completion Percentage Above Expectation (4.0%)
  • Carr played behind a poor O-line that ranked 25th in Pro Football Focus' pass-blocking grades.

What to Expect in 2024

  • Carr enters his second season with the Saints under HC Dennis Allen.
  • New OC Klint Kubiak spent last year as the 49ers' passing-game coordinator
    • Last season the 49ers threw the fewest passes in the NFL at 491.
    • In Kubiak’s last OC stint for the Vikings in 2021, the team ranked 12th in pass attempts (604).
  • The Saints invested a few picks into the offense around Carr in the NFL Draft:
    • LT Taliese Fuaga (first round)
    • WR Bub Means (fifth round)
  • They also drafted QB Spencer Rattler in the fifth round to develop behind Carr.
  • The Saints are expected to take a slight step backward. They are tied for second in the NFC South with a 7.5 win total at most sportsbooks.
  • The Saints have the 25th-highest odds to win the Super Bowl at +8000 on most sportsbooks, third-highest in the division.
  • Carr enters his 11th season at 33 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average QB with Carr’s career produces at 88% of his peak value at age-33.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Derek Carr, QB NO

8:06pm EST 11/10/24

Derek Carr Makes Day on 3 MVS Connections

Saints QB Derek Carr threw for a nice 269 yards and 2 TDs in Sunday's win over the Falcons. Most of his production came on three completions to WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling. The pair connected on a 40-yard TD, a 67-yarder to set up another score, and then the 2-yard TD to finish that position. Carr tallied 160 yards on his remaining 13 completions (among 22 other attempts). Carr added 17 yards on 4 carries.

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Saints QB Derek Carr went just 18-of-31 passing for 236 yards Sunday against the Panthers, after missing the previous three games with an oblique injury. He threw for 1 TD -- to TE Foster Moreau -- but didn't turn the ball over.

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Saints QB Derek Carr (oblique) was limited in practice all week but is not listed on the final injury report. He’ll be back for Sunday’s game vs. the Panthers. Despite that plus matchup, Carr is really only in play in 2-QB and superflex leagues. But his return is excellent news for RB Alvin Kamara and especially WR Chris Olave.

View all Derek Carr Shark Bites »

Saints QB Derek Carr (oblique) got in a limited practice on Wednesday. HC Dennis Allen has been optimistic about Carr's chances of returning for this weekend's game against the Panthers but has stopped short of guaranteeing it. We'll keep you updated on his status over the next few days.

View all Derek Carr Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View QB Dynasty Rankings »

Derek Carr, QB NO
Dynasty MVP -0.9
Position Rank #25 QB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
595
970
1,662
Dynasty Write-up
The Raiders granted Carr's request for release in February of '23. Weeks later, the career-long Raider landed in New Orleans. Injuries and inconsistent play limited Carr to his worst fantasy season since 2014. New OC Klint Kubiak has helped revive Carr's value in 2024, but he's still far from a QB1 option.
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