Derek Carr - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

At 33 years old, Carr is on the backend of his career. Last year, he relied on checkdowns to Alvin Kamara despite having a weapon like Chris Olave on the team.

If the Saints struggle to be in playoff contention, Carr may even be benched as they begin moving toward the future of the position.

Carr remains a low-ceiling option as a QB3 who could have a spike week or two against poor defenses.

What We Learned Last Year

• Carr finished as the QB16 in total fantasy points and QB27 in points per game.
• His 3,614 passing yards ranked 15th among QBs. His 21 TDs ranked 13th.
• He played in all 17 games for the Saints in 2023, but he did suffer various injuries, including a concussion and a sprained A/C joint in his throwing shoulder.
• He had six top-12 finishes. He also had four QB25 or worse finishes.
• Carr’s per-game averages were in line with his career averages:
  • 68.4% completion rate (64.9% for his career)
  • 228.1 yards (245.9)
  • 1.47 TDs (1.52)
  • 0.47 INTs (0.67)
  • 7.3 adjusted yards per pass attempt (7.1)
• In the four games without Kamara, Carr’s per-game averages were generally unaffected:
  • 68.7% completion rate
  • 225 yards
  • 1.5 TDs
  • 0.5 INTs
  • 8.17 adjusted yards per pass attempt
• Among 45 QBs with 135+ dropbacks last year, Carr ranked:
  • 16th in Pro Football passing grade (77.0)
  • 29th in Big Time Throw percentage (3.2%)
  • 8th lowest Turnover Worthy Play percentage (2.3%)
  • 38th in Time to Throw (2.69 seconds)
  • 5th in Completion Percentage Above Expectation (4.0%)
• Carr played behind a poor O-line that ranked 25th in Pro Football Focus' pass-blocking grades.

What to Expect in 2024

• Carr enters his second season with the Saints under HC Dennis Allen.
• New OC Klint Kubiak spent last year as the 49ers' passing-game coordinator
  • Last season the 49ers threw the fewest passes in the NFL at 491.
  • In Kubiak’s last OC stint for the Vikings in 2021, the team ranked 12th in pass attempts (604).
• The Saints invested a few picks into the offense around Carr in the NFL Draft:
  • LT Taliese Fuaga (first round)
  • WR Bub Means (fifth round)
• They also drafted QB Spencer Rattler in the fifth round to develop behind Carr.
• The Saints are expected to take a slight step backward. They are tied for second in the NFC South with a 7.5 win total at most sportsbooks.
• The Saints have the 25th-highest odds to win the Super Bowl at +8000 on most sportsbooks, third-highest in the division.
• Carr enters his 11th season at 33 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average QB with Carr’s career produces at 88% of his peak value at age-33.