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Derek Carr - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsDerek Carr's Basic Stats

Derek Carr
ADP: 17.5
Bye: 12
Experience: 10
Age: 33.3
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 215
40 Time: 4.69

SPARQx (Rank): 102.80 (85%)
Burst Score (Rank): 115.40 (70%)

Derek Carr's Weekly Outlook

Week 1 Projections
Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
243.1 1.49 0.6 4.9 15
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
232.9 1.5 0.7 6.4 14.8

Derek Carr's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#26 Quarterback

243.4 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
17.5 360/540.8 3889.6 23.84 9.6 30.4 78.4 4.8

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsDerek Carr's Preseason Player Analysis

View QB Fantasy Rankings »

Bottom Line

At 33 years old, Carr is on the backend of his career. Last year, he relied on checkdowns to Alvin Kamara despite having a weapon like Chris Olave on the team.

If the Saints struggle to be in playoff contention, Carr may even be benched as they begin moving toward the future of the position.

Carr remains a low-ceiling option as a QB3 who could have a spike week or two against poor defenses.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Carr finished as the QB16 in total fantasy points and QB27 in points per game.
  • His 3,614 passing yards ranked 15th among QBs. His 21 TDs ranked 13th.
  • He played in all 17 games for the Saints in 2023, but he did suffer various injuries, including a concussion and a sprained A/C joint in his throwing shoulder.
  • He had six top-12 finishes. He also had four QB25 or worse finishes.
  • Carr’s per-game averages were in line with his career averages:
    • 68.4% completion rate (64.9% for his career)
    • 228.1 yards (245.9)
    • 1.47 TDs (1.52)
    • 0.47 INTs (0.67)
    • 7.3 adjusted yards per pass attempt (7.1)
  • In the four games without Kamara, Carr’s per-game averages were generally unaffected:
    • 68.7% completion rate
    • 225 yards
    • 1.5 TDs
    • 0.5 INTs
    • 8.17 adjusted yards per pass attempt
  • Among 45 QBs with 135+ dropbacks last year, Carr ranked:
    • 16th in Pro Football passing grade (77.0)
    • 29th in Big Time Throw percentage (3.2%)
    • 8th lowest Turnover Worthy Play percentage (2.3%)
    • 38th in Time to Throw (2.69 seconds)
    • 5th in Completion Percentage Above Expectation (4.0%)
  • Carr played behind a poor O-line that ranked 25th in Pro Football Focus' pass-blocking grades.

What to Expect in 2024

  • Carr enters his second season with the Saints under HC Dennis Allen.
  • New OC Klint Kubiak spent last year as the 49ers' passing-game coordinator
    • Last season the 49ers threw the fewest passes in the NFL at 491.
    • In Kubiak’s last OC stint for the Vikings in 2021, the team ranked 12th in pass attempts (604).
  • The Saints invested a few picks into the offense around Carr in the NFL Draft:
    • LT Taliese Fuaga (first round)
    • WR Bub Means (fifth round)
  • They also drafted QB Spencer Rattler in the fifth round to develop behind Carr.
  • The Saints are expected to take a slight step backward. They are tied for second in the NFC South with a 7.5 win total at most sportsbooks.
  • The Saints have the 25th-highest odds to win the Super Bowl at +8000 on most sportsbooks, third-highest in the division.
  • Carr enters his 11th season at 33 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average QB with Carr’s career produces at 88% of his peak value at age-33.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Juwan Johnson, TE NO

9:12pm EDT 6/12/24

Juwan Johnson Injury Expected to Cost 'Good Amount of Time'

Nick Underhill of Saints.football reports that Saints TE Juwan Johnson "suffered a lower leg injury and is expected to miss a good amount of time." We'll watch for more specifics on the injury, but that sounds pretty ominous. Underhill did add that he hasn't heard that Johnson will be sidelined into the regular season.

Update: ESPN's Adam Schefter reports that Johnson will undergo foot surgery. He's expected to be sidelined “a while," Schefter adds, but "the hope and belief for now is that he will be back for the start of the season."

View Full Story »

The Saints added South Carolina QB Spencer Rattler in the fifth round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Rattler was a five-star recruit and the No. 1 pro-style QB in the 2019 class. But he failed to live up to those expectations across five college seasons. Rattler redshirted behind Jalen Hurts at Oklahoma in 2019 before taking over as the Sooners’ starter in 2020. He finished that season with 3,031 passing yards and 28 TDs vs. seven INTs on a 67.5% completion rate and 9.6 yards per attempt. His production was down the following year before getting benched for Caleb Williams. Rattler then transferred to South Carolina, where he totaled 6,212 passing yards on a 67.5% completion rate and 7.8 yards per attempt over the past two seasons. He ranked 78th among 93 qualifiers in Pro Football Focus’ 2022 passing grades and 50th out of 95 last year. An aggressive passer with good anticipation and plenty of arm strength, Rattler can make every throw. His decision-making and timing need improvement, though. And Rattler has little experience working under center, with 85% of his college snaps coming from shotgun. He’ll open his career behind QB Derek Carr in New Orleans. Carr is signed through 2026 but carries huge cap hits the next two years. We’ll see if Rattler can develop into his successor. He’ll be worth considering in Round 3 or 4 of superflex rookie drafts.

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Klint Kubiak is expected to be named the Saints' new OC, according to multiple reports. Kubiak is currently the 49ers' passing-game coordinator, so the move can't become official until after the Super Bowl. The 36-year-old son of Gary Kubiak has 10 seasons of NFL coaching experience. That includes serving as Vikings OC back in 2021. That team ranked 12th in total yards and 14th in points, ranking near the middle of the pack in run/pass split.

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Dynasty Overview View QB Dynasty Rankings »

Derek Carr, QB NO
Dynasty MVP 132.4
Position Rank #62 QB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
514
669
918
Dynasty Write-up
The Raiders granted Carr's request for release in February of '23. Weeks later, the career-long Raider landed in New Orleans. Injuries and inconsistent play limited Carr to his worst fantasy season since 2014. We're not banking on a late-career turnaround under new OC Klint Kubiak.
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