Bottom Line

Collins presents upside in both target opportunity and production efficiency. No returning Texans player drew more targets last year, and he led that team in average target depth. The arrival of rookie QB C.J. Stroud improves Houston’s downfield passing ability.

Collins and his situation would still make for a risky bet in fantasy starting lineups, but he hasn’t been going anywhere near that range. His ADP has sat outside the top 60 at WR throughout best ball drafting, a format that should be even friendlier to Collins than lineup-setting leagues will be.

At that price and our significantly higher projection, Collins has qualified as one of our top sleepers ever since our rankings came out.

What We Learned Last Year

• Collins increased his role in Year 2. He went from a 13.4% target share over 13 healthy games as a 2021 rookie to 20.1% over nine healthy games last season.
• His 19.1% target share overall ranked 46th among WRs (adjusted for games missed).
• Collins’ yards per catch decreased, from 13.5 to 13.0. But there was no decline in catch rate. And his average depth of target actually increased. Collins tied for 27th in that category among 97 WRs with 40+ targets, according to Pro Football Focus.
• He also improved his yards per route (from 1.24 to 1.68), tying for 36th among that group. His PFF receiving grade also improved vs. 2021, tying for 40th.
• That all came despite Houston’s QBs performing even worse than in 2021 and the pass offense ranking among the worst in the league across categories.
• Collins lost time to groin and foot injuries in 2022. The foot issue landed him on IR but doesn’t look like a problem for 2023. He took the field for May OTAs.

What to Expect in 2023

• Despite catching just 37 passes in his second season, Collins leads all returning Texans in that category. Houston traded WR Brandin Cooks and let WR Chris Moore leave. They were the only two 2022 Texans with more receptions.
• Houston signed WR Robert Woods for two years, with $10 million guaranteed. The team drafted WR Tank Dell (Round 3) and WR Xavier Hutchinson (Round 6). TE Dalton Schultz also arrived in free agency, on a one-year deal.
• Collins easily led last year’s squad in aDOT and stands as the clear leader for downfield duties heading into this season.
• C.J. Stroud’s arrival can only help the wideout’s production. Among 148 FBS QBs with 20+ deep attempts (throws 20+ yards downfield), Stroud ranked 14th in passer rating and 10th in adjusted completion rate, according to PFF.
• We’ll watch training camp and preseason to confirm, but Collins should be a lock for one of the top two WR spots in Houston.