Nico Collins Fantasy Overview

2025 Role & Results

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Collins caught 71 passes for 1,117 yards and 6 TDs across 15 games, finishing eighth in receiving yards and eighth in total PPR points (224.2). His 14.95 PPR points per game ranked 11th at the position. He posted five top-12 finishes and eight top-24 finishes, landing outside the top 36 in just four of 15 outings.

Across 14 full games (omitting a partial Week 7 appearance), Collins averaged 7.9 targets (23.8% share), 4.8 catches, 77.9 yards, and 0.43 TDs per game, a WR9 pace in PPR points per game and WR14 in expected.

Usage & Role

Collins operated almost exclusively as an outside receiver with 79.4% of his snaps coming from wide alignment. Just 20.6% came from the slot. He ranked 14th in targets (121) and 13th in air yards share (31.0%), confirming his status as the clear alpha in Houston's passing game.

His 13.3-yard average depth of target ranked 17th among WRs with 40+ targets. That was a career high, reflecting C.J. Stroud's tendency to push the ball downfield to Collins rather than using him underneath.

Efficiency & Regression

Collins' efficiency declined over the past two years, yet his marks remain elite vs. the rest of the league. It shows Collins’ talent continuing to shine despite declining QB play from C.J. Stroud over the past two seasons.

His 2.35 yards per route run ranked ninth among 76 WRs with 40+ targets, and his 87.4 PFF receiving grade ranked 14th. Both are three-year lows, but both still sit comfortably in the top 15 at the position.

Collins ranked seventh in yards after catch over expected (+1.1 YACOE) and won 56.7% of his contested catches (eighth), showing he can still create after the catch and win in traffic even with a deeper aDOT.

Offensive Context

Houston ranked eighth in pass attempts and 16th in pass rate (57.4%), operating as a relatively balanced offense. The Texans ran 64.0 plays per game (sixth-most in the league), giving Stroud a reasonable number of opportunities.

Houston ranked 19th in neutral pass rate (54.5%), and 20th in pass rate over expected (-4.29%) in 2025.

Under coordinator Bobby Slowik in 2023-24, the offense posted a higher pass rate and neutral pass rate. Under new OC Nick Caley in 2025, the offense seemed to get a bit more conservative.

WRs did command 62.3% of targets (eighth), giving Collins a favorable share of targets. The offense ranked just 22nd in EPA per play (-0.017), meaning production came despite inefficiency rather than because of it.

The O-line was a liability as well. Houston ranked 22nd in PFF pass-block grade and 30th in ESPN pass-block win rate.

Historical Production & Trends

Collins has been one of the more productive WRs in the league across the last three seasons when healthy. Here are his annual PPR points per game finishes:

• 2025: WR10
• 2024: WR9
• 2023: WR7

Collins has been strong across most metrics in each of those seasons.

His yards per route run has decreased slightly over each season (NFL rank among WRs with 50+ Targets):

• 2025: 2.35 (Ninth)
• 2024: 2.87 (Third)
• 2023: 3.10 (Second)

But, Collins remains atop the league each year in YPRR. That makes the decrease likely due to the decline in Stroud’s QB play over the past two seasons.

Collins had a career best aDOT this past season:

• 2025: 13.3 (15th)
• 2024: 11.7 (38th)
• 2023: 11.3 (39th)

His yards per reception were also atop the league:

• 2025: 15.7 (Fourth)
• 2024: 14.8 (17th)
• 2023: 16.2 (Eighth)

Collins’ aDOT continued to rise over the last two seasons while his yards per reception dipped from 2023. Collins did more after the catch in 2023 at 6.9 yards after catch per reception vs. 4.6 in 2025.

Collins consistently performs as a top-ten NFL WR.

Injury History & Durability

Collins has dealt with relatively minor injuries in each of his NFL seasons.

He missed one regular season game in 2025 due to a Week 7 concussion.

He missed five games in 2024 due to a hamstring injury and two games in 2023 due to a calf injury.

There are no major concerns for Collins heading into 2026, but he has lost at least one game to injury in each of his five NFL seasons.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Projected Role & Competition

Collins returns as Houston's clear No. 1 WR, with no worrisome challenge to his target share.

He’ll still have to deal with Stroud, whose performance decline the past two years has damaged the offense on whole more than Collins’ fantasy output.

Supporting Cast

Nick Caley's first season as OC in 2025 produced a balanced offense by most measures. The pass rate (57.4%) and neutral pass rate (54.5%) both dropped from Slowik’s previous years. The team’s pass attempts actually increased in 2025 despite the lowering rates which fueled the highest target total of Collins’ career at 120.

Part of the reason for that was that the team did target WRs and TEs primarily when throwing the ball. WRs earned 62.3% (eighth) and TEs earned 23.8% (ninth). RBs got the short end of the share at 13.9% (29th). WR target rates have been fairly consistent since Collins’ emergence at 60.7% in 2023, and 61.0% in 2024. He clearly fuels the targets to WRs as the No. 1 WR on the team.

The Texans offense in Caley’s second year will likely look similar to 2025. A balanced scheme to take pressure off of Stroud and the O-line with downfield passing to Collins as the primary motor. When the O-line breaks down, short-to-intermediate dump-offs to Dalton Schultz make sense.

One potential change is that the team could lean on the run more after trading OL Juice Scruggs plus a fourth- and seventh-round pick for David Montgomery. Montgomery gives a lead back who can handle more carries. The backfield certainly grew stronger this year with Montgomery and second-year Woody Marks compared to Nick Chubb and rookie Marks last season.

Paths To Ceiling

Collins has scored as a top-10 fantasy WR when healthy for three straight seasons now. We know he has the talent and the role. What does he need to reach his ceiling? Two simple things:

1. Health
2. Improvement from Stroud

We can insure our fantasy rosters against the injury risk. Stroud’s struggles, though, have pushed Collins’ catchable target rates down from 87.1% in 2023, to 77.8%, and then 71.2%.

That 2025 number ranked 61st among 76 WRs who drew 50+ targets. Tough to maximize your output with that meager input from your QB.

Risk Factors

Stroud’s poor performance the past two years challenge Collins’ weekly volatility but haven’t kept him from scoring overall.

Otherwise, Collins presents fairly low risk outside of injury. That he has missed 2+ games in each of his five seasons certainly means you should consider roster insurance after you draft Collins. But that’s not hard to secure.