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Collins continued to perform despite the lackluster Texans’ passing game and balanced offense. He finished as WR9 in PPR points per game over his 14 full outings. His sturdy floor and high ceiling make Collins a target at his late WR1 ADP.
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Collins caught 71 passes for 1,117 yards and 6 TDs across 15 games, finishing eighth in receiving yards and eighth in total PPR points (224.2). His 14.95 PPR points per game ranked 11th at the position. He posted five top-12 finishes and eight top-24 finishes, landing outside the top 36 in just four of 15 outings.
Across 14 full games (omitting a partial Week 7 appearance), Collins averaged 7.9 targets (23.8% share), 4.8 catches, 77.9 yards, and 0.43 TDs per game, a WR9 pace in PPR points per game and WR14 in expected.
Collins operated almost exclusively as an outside receiver with 79.4% of his snaps coming from wide alignment. Just 20.6% came from the slot. He ranked 14th in targets (121) and 13th in air yards share (31.0%), confirming his status as the clear alpha in Houston's passing game.
His 13.3-yard average depth of target ranked 17th among WRs with 40+ targets. That was a career high, reflecting C.J. Stroud's tendency to push the ball downfield to Collins rather than using him underneath.
Collins' efficiency declined over the past two years, yet his marks remain elite vs. the rest of the league. It shows Collins’ talent continuing to shine despite declining QB play from C.J. Stroud over the past two seasons.
His 2.35 yards per route run ranked ninth among 76 WRs with 40+ targets, and his 87.4 PFF receiving grade ranked 14th. Both are three-year lows, but both still sit comfortably in the top 15 at the position.
Collins ranked seventh in yards after catch over expected (+1.1 YACOE) and won 56.7% of his contested catches (eighth), showing he can still create after the catch and win in traffic even with a deeper aDOT.
Houston ranked eighth in pass attempts and 16th in pass rate (57.4%), operating as a relatively balanced offense. The Texans ran 64.0 plays per game (sixth-most in the league), giving Stroud a reasonable number of opportunities.
Houston ranked 19th in neutral pass rate (54.5%), and 20th in pass rate over expected (-4.29%) in 2025.
Under coordinator Bobby Slowik in 2023-24, the offense posted a higher pass rate and neutral pass rate. Under new OC Nick Caley in 2025, the offense seemed to get a bit more conservative.
Plays | Pass Rate | Neutral Pass Rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
2023 (Slowik) | 63.7 | 59.9% | 56.6% |
2024 (Slowik) | 62.2 | 60.5% | 57.4% |
2025 (Caley) | 64.0 | 57.4% | 54.5% |
WRs did command 62.3% of targets (eighth), giving Collins a favorable share of targets. The offense ranked just 22nd in EPA per play (-0.017), meaning production came despite inefficiency rather than because of it.
The O-line was a liability as well. Houston ranked 22nd in PFF pass-block grade and 30th in ESPN pass-block win rate.
Collins has been one of the more productive WRs in the league across the last three seasons when healthy. Here are his annual PPR points per game finishes:
Collins has been strong across most metrics in each of those seasons.
His yards per route run has decreased slightly over each season (NFL rank among WRs with 50+ Targets):
But, Collins remains atop the league each year in YPRR. That makes the decrease likely due to the decline in Stroud’s QB play over the past two seasons.
Collins had a career best aDOT this past season:
His yards per reception were also atop the league:
Collins’ aDOT continued to rise over the last two seasons while his yards per reception dipped from 2023. Collins did more after the catch in 2023 at 6.9 yards after catch per reception vs. 4.6 in 2025.
Collins consistently performs as a top-ten NFL WR.
Collins has dealt with relatively minor injuries in each of his NFL seasons.
He missed one regular season game in 2025 due to a Week 7 concussion.
He missed five games in 2024 due to a hamstring injury and two games in 2023 due to a calf injury.
There are no major concerns for Collins heading into 2026, but he has lost at least one game to injury in each of his five NFL seasons.
Collins returns as Houston's clear No. 1 WR, with no worrisome challenge to his target share.
He’ll still have to deal with Stroud, whose performance decline the past two years has damaged the offense on whole more than Collins’ fantasy output.
Nick Caley's first season as OC in 2025 produced a balanced offense by most measures. The pass rate (57.4%) and neutral pass rate (54.5%) both dropped from Slowik’s previous years. The team’s pass attempts actually increased in 2025 despite the lowering rates which fueled the highest target total of Collins’ career at 120.
Part of the reason for that was that the team did target WRs and TEs primarily when throwing the ball. WRs earned 62.3% (eighth) and TEs earned 23.8% (ninth). RBs got the short end of the share at 13.9% (29th). WR target rates have been fairly consistent since Collins’ emergence at 60.7% in 2023, and 61.0% in 2024. He clearly fuels the targets to WRs as the No. 1 WR on the team.
The Texans offense in Caley’s second year will likely look similar to 2025. A balanced scheme to take pressure off of Stroud and the O-line with downfield passing to Collins as the primary motor. When the O-line breaks down, short-to-intermediate dump-offs to Dalton Schultz make sense.
One potential change is that the team could lean on the run more after trading OL Juice Scruggs plus a fourth- and seventh-round pick for David Montgomery. Montgomery gives a lead back who can handle more carries. The backfield certainly grew stronger this year with Montgomery and second-year Woody Marks compared to Nick Chubb and rookie Marks last season.
Collins has scored as a top-10 fantasy WR when healthy for three straight seasons now. We know he has the talent and the role. What does he need to reach his ceiling? Two simple things:
We can insure our fantasy rosters against the injury risk. Stroud’s struggles, though, have pushed Collins’ catchable target rates down from 87.1% in 2023, to 77.8%, and then 71.2%.
That 2025 number ranked 61st among 76 WRs who drew 50+ targets. Tough to maximize your output with that meager input from your QB.
Stroud’s poor performance the past two years challenge Collins’ weekly volatility but haven’t kept him from scoring overall.
Otherwise, Collins presents fairly low risk outside of injury. That he has missed 2+ games in each of his five seasons certainly means you should consider roster insurance after you draft Collins. But that’s not hard to secure.
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Nico Collins Expected To Miss 2 Games
Nico Collins Expected To Miss 2 Games
Insider Aaron Wilson hears that the "current expectation" is for WR Nico Collins to miss 2 games with his hamstring injury. Collins was diagnosed with the lowest grade of hamstring strain, Wilson reported earlier this week, but it sounds like he'll miss Sunday's game vs. the Bengals and Week 3 vs. the Colts. His absence leaves Houston with WRs Kayshon Boutte, Jaylin Noel, Xavier Hutchinson, Jared Wayne, and Lewis Bond. It's a situation to avoid in Week 2 fantasy lineups. We'll see how the group is used against Cincinnati before determining whether there's fantasy value in Week 3.
Nico Collins Out For Week 2
Nico Collins Out For Week 2
Texans WR Nico Collins (hamstring) is out for Sunday’s game vs. the Bengals. He suffered what’s been reported as a Grade 1 hamstring strain in Wednesday’s practice that will cost him at least 1 game. We’ll see if he can make it back for Week 3. Collins’ absence figures to leave Kayshon Boutte and Xavier Hutchinson as Houston’s primary outside WR, with Jaylin Noel in the slot. We wouldn’t trust any of them in fantasy lineups. TE Dalton Schultz could get a target boost with Collins out.
Nico Collins Sidelined Thursday
Nico Collins Sidelined Thursday
Texans WR Nico Collins did not practice on Thursday, a day after reportedly suffering a Grade 1 hamstring strain. Collins looks like a long shot to play vs. the Bengals this weekend, but we'll update his status again tomorrow.
Nico Collins Has Grade 1 Hamstring Strain
Nico Collins Has Grade 1 Hamstring Strain
Texans WR Nico Collins has been diagnosed with a Grade 1 hamstring strain, insider Aaron Wilson reports. That's the lowest-grade strain. Wilson confirms, though, that Collins is "very much in doubt" for Sunday's game vs. the Bengals. Collins should be on fantasy benches for now. Consider it good news if he only misses 1 game.
Nico Collins' Hamstring Injury Not Serious, Week 2 "In Jeopardy"
Nico Collins' Hamstring Injury Not Serious, Week 2 "In Jeopardy"
The Texans don't believe WR Nico Collins' hamstring injury is serious after running tests on Wednesday, ESPN's Adam Schefter reports. But Collins' availability for this weekend's game vs. the Bengals "is in jeopardy," Schefter adds. We'd be surprised if Collins played just 4 days after suffering a hamstring injury, even if it's minor. Fantasy managers should plan on being without him for Week 2, although it sounds like Collins dodged an extended absence.
See whether Nico Collins is available in your leagues.
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