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Collins continued to perform despite the lackluster Texans’ passing game and balanced offense. He finished as WR9 in PPR points per game over his 14 full outings. His sturdy floor and high ceiling make Collins a target at a WR10 ADP.
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Collins caught 71 passes for 1,117 yards and 6 TDs across 15 games, finishing eighth in receiving yards and eighth in total PPR points (224.2). His 14.95 PPR points per game ranked 11th at the position. He posted five top-12 finishes and eight top-24 finishes, landing outside the top 36 in just four of 15 outings.
Across 14 full games (omitting a partial Week 7 appearance), Collins averaged 7.9 targets (23.8% share), 4.8 catches, 77.9 yards, and 0.43 TDs per game, a WR9 pace in PPR points per game and WR14 in expected.
Collins operated almost exclusively as an outside receiver with 79.4% of his snaps coming from wide alignment. Just 20.6% came from the slot. He ranked 14th in targets (121) and 13th in air yards share (31.0%), confirming his status as the clear alpha in Houston's passing game.
His 13.3-yard average depth of target ranked 17th among WRs with 40+ targets. That was a career high, reflecting C.J. Stroud's tendency to push the ball downfield to Collins rather than using him underneath.
Collins' efficiency declined over the past two years, yet his marks remain elite vs. the rest of the league. It shows Collins’ talent continuing to shine despite declining QB play from C.J. Stroud over the past two seasons.
His 2.35 yards per route run ranked ninth among 76 WRs with 40+ targets, and his 87.4 PFF receiving grade ranked 14th. Both are three-year lows, but both still sit comfortably in the top 15 at the position.
Collins ranked seventh in yards after catch over expected (+1.1 YACOE) and won 56.7% of his contested catches (eighth), showing he can still create after the catch and win in traffic even with a deeper aDOT.
Houston ranked eighth in pass attempts and 16th in pass rate (57.4%), operating as a relatively balanced offense. The Texans ran 64.0 plays per game (sixth-most in the league), giving Stroud a reasonable number of opportunities.
Houston ranked 19th in neutral pass rate (54.5%), and 20th in pass rate over expected (-4.29%) in 2025.
Under coordinator Bobby Slowik in 2023-24, the offense posted a higher pass rate and neutral pass rate. Under new OC Nick Caley in 2025, the offense seemed to get a bit more conservative.
Plays | Pass Rate | Neutral Pass Rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
2023 (Slowik) | 63.7 | 59.9% | 56.6% |
2024 (Slowik) | 62.2 | 60.5% | 57.4% |
2025 (Caley) | 64.0 | 57.4% | 54.5% |
WRs did command 62.3% of targets (eighth), giving Collins a favorable share of targets. The offense ranked just 22nd in EPA per play (-0.017), meaning production came despite inefficiency rather than because of it.
The O-line was a liability as well. Houston ranked 22nd in PFF pass-block grade and 30th in ESPN pass-block win rate.
Collins has been one of the more productive WRs in the league across the last three seasons when healthy. Here are his annual PPR points per game finishes:
Collins has been strong across most metrics in each of those seasons.
His yards per route run has decreased slightly over each season (NFL rank among WRs with 50+ Targets):
But, Collins remains atop the league each year in YPRR. That makes the decrease likely due to the decline in Stroud’s QB play over the past two seasons.
Collins had a career best aDOT this past season:
His yards per reception were also atop the league:
Collins’ aDOT continued to rise over the last two seasons while his yards per reception dipped from 2023. Collins did more after the catch in 2023 at 6.9 yards after catch per reception vs. 4.6 in 2025.
Collins consistently performs as a top-ten NFL WR.
Collins has dealt with relatively minor injuries in each of his NFL seasons.
He missed one regular season game in 2025 due to a Week 7 concussion.
He missed five games in 2024 due to a hamstring injury and two games in 2023 due to a calf injury.
There are no major concerns for Collins heading into 2026, but he has lost at least one game to injury in each of his five NFL seasons.
Collins returns as Houston's clear No. 1 WR, with no worrisome challenge to his target share.
He’ll still have to deal with Stroud, whose performance decline the past two years has damaged the offense on whole more than Collins’ fantasy output.
Nick Caley's first season as OC in 2025 produced a balanced offense by most measures. The pass rate (57.4%) and neutral pass rate (54.5%) both dropped from Slowik’s previous years. The team’s pass attempts actually increased in 2025 despite the lowering rates which fueled the highest target total of Collins’ career at 120.
Part of the reason for that was that the team did target WRs and TEs primarily when throwing the ball. WRs earned 62.3% (eighth) and TEs earned 23.8% (ninth). RBs got the short end of the share at 13.9% (29th). WR target rates have been fairly consistent since Collins’ emergence at 60.7% in 2023, and 61.0% in 2024. He clearly fuels the targets to WRs as the No. 1 WR on the team.
The Texans offense in Caley’s second year will likely look similar to 2025. A balanced scheme to take pressure off of Stroud and the O-line with downfield passing to Collins as the primary motor. When the O-line breaks down, short-to-intermediate dump-offs to Dalton Schultz make sense.
One potential change is that the team could lean on the run more after trading OL Juice Scruggs plus a fourth- and seventh-round pick for David Montgomery. Montgomery gives a lead back who can handle more carries. The backfield certainly grew stronger this year with Montgomery and second-year Woody Marks compared to Nick Chubb and rookie Marks last season.
Collins has scored as a top-10 fantasy WR when healthy for three straight seasons now. We know he has the talent and the role. What does he need to reach his ceiling? Two simple things:
We can insure our fantasy rosters against the injury risk. Stroud’s struggles, though, have pushed Collins’ catchable target rates down from 87.1% in 2023, to 77.8%, and then 71.2%.
That 2025 number ranked 61st among 76 WRs who drew 50+ targets. Tough to maximize your output with that meager input from your QB.
Stroud’s poor performance the past two years challenge Collins’ weekly volatility but haven’t kept him from scoring overall.
Otherwise, Collins presents fairly low risk outside of injury. That he has missed 2+ games in each of his five seasons certainly means you should consider roster insurance after you draft Collins. But that’s not hard to secure.
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Tank Dell Faces a Limited Start to Training Camp
Tank Dell Faces a Limited Start to Training Camp
The Texans will take a “measured approach” with WR Tank Dell at the start of training camp, per team insider Aaron Wilson. That includes limited practices as he’s gradually introduced to drills with contact. He's working back from ACL, MCL, and LCL tears, along with meniscus damage, suffered in December 2024.
Nico Collins Out For Divisional Round
Nico Collins Out For Divisional Round
Texans WR Nico Collins (concussion) has been ruled out for Sunday's Divisional Round game vs. the Patriots. He didn't practice all week. Collins would be likely -- but not a lock -- to play next weekend if Houston wins in New England. Jayden Higgins, Christian Kirk, and Xavier Hutchinson project as the Texans' top three WRs on Sunday.
Nico Collins Out Wednesday
Nico Collins Out Wednesday
Texans WR Nico Collins (concussion) did not practice on Wednesday. He's unlikely to clear protocol in time for Sunday's Divisional Round game vs. the Patriots, but we'll keep tabs on his progress. Collins' absence would leave Jayden Higgins, Christian Kirk, and Xavier Hutchinson as Houston's top three WRs. Patriots No. 1 CB Christian Gonzalez is also in concussion protocol but got in a limited practice on Wednesday.
Nico Collins Concussed
Nico Collins Concussed
Texans WR Nico Collins sustained a concussion in Monday night's Wild Card win over the Steelers. He had trouble getting off the field and was carted back to the locker room. It's Collins' first documented concussion, but it'll be a challenge for him to clear protocol before Sunday's game vs. the Patriots. We'll keep you updated on his progress. Houston got an out-of-nowhere 144-yard game from WR Christian Kirk in Pittsburgh. He'll be joined by Jayden Higgins and Xavier Hutchinson as the Texans' top three WRs if Collins is out this weekend. TE Dalton Schultz would also be a candidate for more work.
Texans Resting Nico Collins
Texans Resting Nico Collins
NFL Network's Jane Slater reports that the Texans don't plan to play WR Nico Collins in today's finale against the Colts.
See whether Nico Collins is available in your leagues.
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