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Nico Collins - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsNico Collins's Basic Stats

Nico Collins
ADP: 2.11
Bye: 14
Experience: 3
Age: 25.3
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 215
40 Time: 4.50
Speed Score: 109.20

SPARQx (Rank): 108.40 (64%)
Burst Score (Rank): 126.30 (75%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.11 (67%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.33 (94%)

Nico Collins's Weekly Outlook

Week 1 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
5.2 72.1 0.45 10.2
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.2 56.5 0.3 7.5

Nico Collins's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#17 Wide Receiver

226.7 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
2.11 78 1081.5 6.75 0 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsNico Collins's Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

Collins earned a big contract extension this offseason and likely stays as C.J. Stroud’s top WR even after the team traded for Stefon Diggs.

His ideal fit for OC Bobby Slowik’s offense allowed Collins to routinely get open and put up numerous WR1 games last year.

Though his target share may decrease, the passing game efficiency should keep Collins as a borderline WR1 again this season.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Collins’ per-game averages were all the best of his career:
    • 7.27 targets
    • 5.33 receptions
    • 86.5 yards
    • 16.2 yards per catch
    • 0.53 TDs
  • He ranked as the PPR WR18 in total fantasy points (225.9) and WR18 in points per game (9.7).
  • He missed two games last year (Week 10 & Week 15) due to a calf injury.
  • He had five top-12 finishes. He also had four WR37 or worse finishes.
  • Collins’ target share improved from 19.1% in 2022 (45th best among WRs) to 21.9% (34th best among WRs).
  • Among 92 WRs with 40+ targets, Collins ranked
    • 7th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
    • 2nd in yards per route run (3.10)
    • 46th in average target depth (11.5)
  • Among those same 92 WRs, Collins was 27th in average separation yards (3.0), per NFL Next Gen Stats.

What to Expect in 2024

  • Collins signed a three-year, $72.75 million contract to stay with the Texans with $52 million guaranteed. His $24.25 million per year ranks eighth among WRs.
  • QB C.J. Stroud enters his second season under HC DeMeco Ryans and OC Bobby Slowik.
  • The Texans are expected to perform similarly to last season. They have the highest win total in the AFC South at 9.5 wins on most sportsbooks.
  • They also have the eighth-highest odds to win the Super Bowl at +1600 on most sportsbooks, best in the division.
  • Collins enters his eighth season at 25 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average WR with Collins’ career will produce at peak value at age 25.
  • He’ll face tougher target competition this year with Stefon Diggs joining Tank Dell in the WR corps. But Collins notably beat Diggs and Dell last year in yards per route run and PFF receiving grade.

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Nico Collins, WR HOU

10:02pm EDT 5/28/24

Nico Collins gets three-year extension

The Texans and WR Nico Collins agreed to a three-year, $72.5 million extension with $52 million guaranteed, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport and Tom Pelissero. The deal keeps Collins in Houston through the 2027 season. His $24.2 million average annual salary ranks seventh among WRs, in between DeVonta Smith and D.K. Metcalf.

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According to multiple reports, the Bills are sending WR Stefon Diggs to the Texans. Buffalo is also sending a 2024 sixth-round pick and 2025 fifth-rounder to Houston, while getting back only a second-round pick in 2025. Diggs' production fell off late last season after the Bills switched offensive coordinators. Now 30 and in a new offense, Diggs will have to show he's not in decline. He'll add the challenge of splitting targets with Houston's emergent young wideouts. Nico Collins (seventh) and Tank Dell (12th) both ranked among the top 12 WRs in PPR points per game last season, with rookie QB C.J. Stroud. The Diggs addition obviously lowers the target-share ceiling for all three wideouts. We'll also have to see exactly how Houston plans to deploy them. Diggs spent 35.7% of his pass snaps in the slot last year; 34.2% the year before. He topped 30% in that category for three of his four Buffalo seasons, surpassed only by his 2016 sophomore season (62.9%). Collins spent 20.1% of his time in the slot last year; Dell 28.7%. We'd bet on all three moving around the formation some. But Diggs could wind up primarily replacing Robert Woods (55.5% slot) and Noah Brown (39.3%). The trio gives Stroud one of the league's best WR groups and boosts his fantasy upside. The QB already sat sixth at the position in Underdog Fantasy ADP, though. That adds risk to Stroud as a draft target and gives him little room to move up. QB Josh Allen, meanwhile, has lost his top two wideouts (Gabe Davis the other) while adding only WR Curtis Samuel this offseason. The dearth of remaining talent adds risk to his fantasy outlook, though you shouldn't expect the high-level rusher to move significantly down our rankings. As for other affected players: Diggs' departure leaves target share available for TE Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir. His arrival in Houston makes life tougher for TE Dalton Schultz. He already sat just 13th among TEs in best ball ADP, though, and will likely fall further following this trade. Be sure to check our rankings for your format to see all the effects of this high-impact deal.

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Bobby Slowik is getting a "significant raise" to remain the Texans' OC, according to insider Albert Breer. Slowik drew significant HC interest after leading Houston to top-13 finishes in both total yards and points this past year. His return is good news for QB C.J. Stroud and the Texans offense, although we'd like to see Slowik lean further toward the pass in 2024. Last year's Texans ranked 16th in neutral pass rate and 19th in Pass Rate Over Expected.

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Texans WRs Robert Woods (hip) and Noah Brown (back) did not practice on Tuesday. Both guys missed the Week 18 win over the Colts and are iffy for Saturday's Wild Card game vs. the Browns. Their absences last week left John Metchie and Xavier Hutchinson as Houston's No. 2 and 3 WRs -- although neither made an impact. WR Nico Collins hogged 35% of the targets and posted a big 9-195-1 line.

View all Robert Woods Shark Bites »

Texans WR Robert Woods (hip) is inactive for tonight’s game vs. the Colts. He joins WR Noah Brown (back) on the inactive list. That leaves WRs Xavier Hutchinson and John Metchie behind No. 1 WR Nico Collins. TE Dalton Schultz could play an expanded role in the passing game tonight.

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Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Nico Collins, WR HOU
Dynasty MVP 133.7
Position Rank #21 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
414
678
1,274
Dynasty Write-up
Collins really took off in 2023 alongside C.J. Stroud (80-1,297-8). 2024 was going to turn up a contract year, but Collins inked a three-year extension in May. Now we'll see how targets are divided up following the arrival of Stefon Diggs.
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