Bottom Line

After a breakout 2022, Pollard’s positioned for similar success this fall.

Zeke Elliott’s absence – at least for now – adds an extra layer of safety to Pollard’s workload. He’s also avoided a setback in his recovery from a high-ankle sprain/fibula fracture.

The franchise RB is deservedly going in Round 2 of fantasy drafts.

What We Learned Last Year

• Pollard missed only one game. He sat out Week 17 with a thigh injury, but that game was played on a Thursday night. A Sunday kickoff likely would have found Pollard in the lineup.
• Across 15 games together, RB Zeke Elliott out-carried Pollard 231-157.
• Pollard clearly proved to be the better back.
  • Among 24 RBs with 190+ carries, Polllard ranked:
    • fourth in Pro Football Focus rushing grade
    • second in yards per carry
    • first in yards after contact per attempt
    • second in breakaway percentage.
  • Elliott ranked 20th, 22nd, T-20th, and T-18th in the same categories.
  • Pollard out-targeted Elliott 48-23 in 15 games together.
  • Elliott was a nuisance near the goal line. He out-carried Pollard inside the 10-yard line, 26-12. The margin was 16-6 inside the 5.
• Pollard finished RB4 and RB8 in two games without Elliott.
• He ranked as the PPR RB3, RB29, RB67, RB21, and RB30 in five games without QB Dak Prescott (thumb fracture).
  • Overall, Pollard finished as the RB9, boosted by six top-8 finishes.
• Among 90 qualifiers, Pollard ranked third behind RBs Khalil Herbert and Nick Chubb in rushing yards over expected per attempt (1.26).
• In the NFC Divisional Round, Pollard sustained a fractured fibula and a high-ankle sprain.

What to Expect in 2023

• Dallas assigned the franchise tag to Pollard (~$10 million).
• Pollard was limited in OTAs but said in June that he’s “a little bit ahead of schedule” and back to running full speed.
• Dallas released RB Zeke Elliott over the offseason. We’ll see whether the team re-signs him.
• OC Kellen Moore left to take the same job with the Chargers. Brian Schottenheimer slides in as OC, but HC Mike McCarthy will call plays.
  • Schottenheimer has talked up a “fast” approach to the offense.
  • He added that about 70% of the offense will be similar to what they ran in 2022.
• Pollard’s backfield competition, for now, looks weak. Ronald Jones and Malik Davis project as the complements.
• We’re not concerned about the O-line. Tyron Smith would provide a huge lift if he can stay healthy. But he has missed 33 games over the past three seasons.