Tony Pollard - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Pollard didn’t live up to expectations in Dallas last year.

Being paid as a top-ten NFL RB should force the Titans' hand to give him every chance to succeed.

Joe Mixon showed how a RB in the Brian Callahan offense can be utilized in a variety of ways, so Pollard has that same potential.

With Tyjae Spears as a superior receiving option at RB, Pollard will be a TD-dependent RB2 whose volume will be his best asset.

What We Learned Last Year

• Pollards’ 1,005 rushing yards ranked 12th among RBs. His 55 catches ranked eighth.
• He did not miss any games due to injury.
• Pollard ranked as the PPR RB14 in total fantasy points and the RB23 in points per game.
  • He finished RB12 or better four times. He recorded four games between RB13 and RB24.
• He ranked 15th among all ball carriers in rushing success rate at 50.0%.
• He played 71% of the Cowboys offensive snaps last season.
• His per-game averages for the season were above his career averages:
  • 14.8 carries (9.65)
  • 59.1 rushing yards (45.8)
  • 0.35 rushing TDs (0.29)
  • 3.94 targets (2.89)
  • 3.24 catches (2.23)
  • 18.3 receiving yards (16.7)
  • 0.00 receiving TDs (0.06)
• Among 51 RBs with 90+ carries last year, Pollard ranked:
  • Ninth in Pro Football Focus rushing grade
  • 36th in PFF’s Elusive Rating
  • 34th in NFL Next Gen Stats’ Rush Yards Over Expected Per Attempt
• His receiving metrics raise some red flags. Among 43 RBs with 30+ targets, Pollard ranked:
  • 40th in PFF receiving grade
  • 36th in yards per route run

What to Expect in 2024

• Pollard signed with the Titans on a three-year deal worth $24 million with $10.49 million guaranteed. His $7.25 million per year ranks ninth among RBs.
• Pollard enters his first season on the Titans under HC and play caller Brian Callahan and OC Nick Holz
• The Titans are expected to perform similarly to last season. They are fourth in highest win total in the AFC South at 6.5 wins on most sportsbooks.
• They also are tied for 27th in terms of highest Super Bowl odds at +15000 on most sportsbooks.
• Pollard enters his sixth season at 27 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average RB with Pollard’s career and profile will produce 85-95% of peak value at age-27.
• New teammate Tyjae Spears beat Pollard last year in:
  • Rush yards after contact per attempt
  • PFF Elusive Rating
  • Rush yards over expected per attempt
  • PFF receiving grade
  • Yards per route run