Bottom Line

Lockett finished 16th among WRs in PPR points per game last year; 13th if you omit the Week 17 game he left early.

That was his fifth straight top-25 finish.

Lockett turns 31 in September but has shown no signs of decline. In fact, he beat teammate D.K. Metcalf in yards per target, yards per route run, and Pro Football Focus receiving grade last year.

First-round rookie WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba adds target competition this season. But we’re expecting him to steal most of his action from Seattle’s ancillary pieces. It simply wouldn’t make sense for the Seahawks to reduce Lockett’s role.

Lockett looks like a rock-solid WR2 that’ll likely come at a value in your fantasy drafts.

What We Learned Last Year

• Lockett caught 84 balls for 1,033 yards and 9 TDs in 16 games last year.
• He missed Week 16 with a broken hand and was limited to a 32% snap rate in Week 17 due to a shin injury.
• His scoring average in 15 healthy games ranked 13th among WRs in PPR points and 11th in non-PPR.
• Lockett was a steady producer. He scored as a top-36 PPR WR in 13 of those 15 games and top-24 in 10 of 15. He finished as a top-12 WR three times.
• Lockett averaged 7.7 targets on a 22.8% target share in his 15 healthy games. Teammate D.K. Metcalf averaged 8.5 targets on a 25.2% share in those same 15 games.
• Lockett, though, beat Metcalf in yards per target, yards per route run, and Pro Football Focus receiving grade.
• Lockett’s ranks in those metrics among 80 WRs with 50+ targets:
  • yards per target: 20th
  • yards per route run: 20th
  • PFF grade: 20th
• Lockett also beat Metcalf in PPR and non-PPR points per game last year.

What to Expect in 2023

• Lockett has now finished as a top-25 WR in PPR points per game in five straight seasons.
  • 2018: 25th
  • 2019: 23rd
  • 2020: 12th
  • 2021: 20th
  • 2022: 16th
• He returns to the same offense (OC Shane Waldron) with the same QB (Geno Smith) in 2023. Any reason to expect him to finish outside the top 25 this season?
• The haters will point to two things: His age and the addition of WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
• Lockett turns 31 in September. Our aging-curve research shows that WRs of Lockett’s quality produce, on average, 82% of their peak numbers at age-31.
  • 82% of Lockett’s peak would be 13.6 PPR points per game – good for 22nd among WRs last year.
  • And Lockett has shown no signs of decline. His yards per route run and PFF receiving grade last year were right in line with the previous four seasons.
• Smith-Njigba is an exciting talent and should immediately play a significant role in Seattle’s passing game. But that doesn’t mean he’ll steal much volume from Lockett. Behind Lockett and Metcalf, Seattle’s other WRs combined for 75 targets last year. And the team’s top three TEs totaled 135 targets. Smith-Njigba could especially cut into that number if the Seahawks deploy more three-WR sets.