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Tyler Lockett - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsTyler Lockett's Basic Stats

Tyler Lockett
ADP: 6.10
Bye: 5
Experience: 8 Yr(s)
Age: 30.9
Height: 5'10"
Weight: 182
40 Time: 4.40
Speed Score: 93.10
Burst Score (Rank): 120.90 (48%)
Agility Score (Rank): 10.96 (81%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.04 (51%)

Tyler Lockett's Weekly Outlook

Week 3 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
5.1 59.6 0.5 9
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.8 65 0.5 9.5

Tyler Lockett's 2023 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#25 Wide Receiver

142.5 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
6.10 78.3 1002.7 7.1 2.5 0.2

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsTyler Lockett's Preseason Player Analysis

View WR Fantasy Rankings »
Bottom Line

Lockett finished 16th among WRs in PPR points per game last year; 13th if you omit the Week 17 game he left early.

That was his fifth straight top-25 finish.

Lockett turns 31 in September but has shown no signs of decline. In fact, he beat teammate D.K. Metcalf in yards per target, yards per route run, and Pro Football Focus receiving grade last year.

First-round rookie WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba adds target competition this season. But we’re expecting him to steal most of his action from Seattle’s ancillary pieces. It simply wouldn’t make sense for the Seahawks to reduce Lockett’s role.

Lockett looks like a rock-solid WR2 that’ll likely come at a value in your fantasy drafts.


What We Learned Last Year
  • Lockett caught 84 balls for 1,033 yards and 9 TDs in 16 games last year.
  • He missed Week 16 with a broken hand and was limited to a 32% snap rate in Week 17 due to a shin injury.
  • His scoring average in 15 healthy games ranked 13th among WRs in PPR points and 11th in non-PPR.
  • Lockett was a steady producer. He scored as a top-36 PPR WR in 13 of those 15 games and top-24 in 10 of 15. He finished as a top-12 WR three times.
  • Lockett averaged 7.7 targets on a 22.8% target share in his 15 healthy games. Teammate D.K. Metcalf averaged 8.5 targets on a 25.2% share in those same 15 games.
  • Lockett, though, beat Metcalf in yards per target, yards per route run, and Pro Football Focus receiving grade.
  • Lockett’s ranks in those metrics among 80 WRs with 50+ targets:
    • yards per target: 20th
    • yards per route run: 20th
    • PFF grade: 20th
  • Lockett also beat Metcalf in PPR and non-PPR points per game last year.

What to Expect in 2023
  • Lockett has now finished as a top-25 WR in PPR points per game in five straight seasons.
    • 2018: 25th
    • 2019: 23rd
    • 2020: 12th
    • 2021: 20th
    • 2022: 16th
  • He returns to the same offense (OC Shane Waldron) with the same QB (Geno Smith) in 2023. Any reason to expect him to finish outside the top 25 this season?
  • The haters will point to two things: His age and the addition of WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
  • Lockett turns 31 in September. Our aging-curve research shows that WRs of Lockett’s quality produce, on average, 82% of their peak numbers at age-31.
    • 82% of Lockett’s peak would be 13.6 PPR points per game – good for 22nd among WRs last year.
    • And Lockett has shown no signs of decline. His yards per route run and PFF receiving grade last year were right in line with the previous four seasons.
  • Smith-Njigba is an exciting talent and should immediately play a significant role in Seattle’s passing game. But that doesn’t mean he’ll steal much volume from Lockett. Behind Lockett and Metcalf, Seattle’s other WRs combined for 75 targets last year. And the team’s top three TEs totaled 135 targets. Smith-Njigba could especially cut into that number if the Seahawks deploy more three-WR sets.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Tyler Lockett, WR SEA

5:38pm EDT 9/17/23

Tyler Lockett has huge Week 2

After a quiet opener, Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett exploded for eight catches, 59 yards, and two TDs in the Week 2 overtime win over the Lions. He scored on a crosser from three yards out in the fourth quarter and then from 6 yards out on a catch and run to win it in overtime. Lockett worked near the line of scrimmage and averaged just 7.4 yards per catch -- likely part of Seattle's game plan without both starting offensive tackles. His 10 targets led the team and were 24.4% of the team total. This was an important bounce back from the Seahawks offense after the Week 1 dud. With upcoming matchups vs. the Panthers and Giants, Lockett is back to solid WR2 status.

View all Tyler Lockett Shark Bites »

Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba is having surgery on his left wrist in Philadelphia on Tuesday after breaking a bone Saturday night against Dallas. ESPN's Adam Schefter reports that the rookie "still could have a chance to be ready for the start of the regular season." The team should know more about his return timeline after the surgery. We'll await that news before judging whether to move JSN in our 2023 PPR rankings.

View all Jaxon Smith-Njigba Shark Bites »

Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett finished 16th among WRs in PPR points per game last season -- his fifth straight top-25 finish. Lockett will turn 31 in September but has shown no signs of decline. He ranked 20th among 80 qualifying WRs in yards per target, yards per route, and Pro Football Focus receiving grade last year. And he beat 25-year-old teammate D.K. Metcalf in all three metrics. Even with the arrival of rookie WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, we're not betting against another top-25 season from Lockett. See exactly where he sits in the 2023 WR Rankings.

View all Tyler Lockett Shark Bites »

The Seahawks selected Ohio State WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba with the 20th pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. JSN turned in one of the most impressive sophomore seasons we’ve ever seen back in 2021. He racked up 95 catches for 1,606 yards and nine TDs, out-producing both Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave while also beating those eventual first-round picks in yards per route run and Pro Football Focus receiving grade. A lingering hamstring injury limited Smith-Njigba to 60 total snaps this past year. But he was healthy enough to work out in the pre-draft process, where he posted elite marks in the 3-cone and short shuttle. That agility shows up on tape: JSN is impossible to stick with one-on-one and regularly adds yardage after the catch. Smith-Njibga has just-ok size (6’1, 196 lbs.) and speed (4.52-second 40 time), which puts a cap on his big-play upside. But he looks capable of quickly emerging as a high-volume target. Think Amon-Ra St. Brown. With the Seahawks, JSN will fit in as a day-one slot. Note that D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are signed through the 2025 season.

View all Jaxon Smith-Njigba Shark Bites »

The Seahawks and QB Geno Smith have reportedly reached an agreement on a three-year, $105 million contract extension. The 32-year-old finished the 2022 NFL season with Pro Bowl honors and the Comeback Player of the Year Award after he spent several seasons serving as a backup. It'll be tough for Smith to maintain his fantasy production from last year (QB9 in points per game with 17.9), but this deal locks him in with the likes of WRs D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett for the foreseeable future. We've bumped up Smith to QB18 in our dynasty rankings as a result of this news. He'll be a quality QB2 in superflex leagues. As for Metcalf and Lockett, their dynasty values are relatively the same. Continuity at QB does eliminate some of the risk associated with Metcalf in dynasty formats if anything. We don't yet know the details of Smith's contract and if the Seahawks would be able to maneuver out of the deal should the franchise choose to explore younger options at the position. But for now, it's great news for a player with a great story.

View all Geno Smith Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Tyler Lockett, WR SEA
Dynasty MVP 73.2
Position Rank #61 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
268
387
530
Dynasty Write-up
Flawlessly adjusting to QB Geno Smith, Lockett stuck around as a WR1/2. The holdup is clear, though, as Lockett turns 31 in September. Round 1 WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba also arrived to stiffen target competition. Seattle at least retained Smith on a multi-year deal in March.
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