Alexander Mattison - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Mattison has been one of the least efficient runners in the NFL over the last three seasons. He was cut by the Vikings in February and then signed a cheap one-year deal with the Raiders.

The upside is that he landed in a backfield with only Zamir White as legitimate competition for carries. White had a strong four-game stretch to close last season but had totaled just 37 carries over his first season-and-three-quarters in the NFL.

White is certainly the favorite to lead Vegas in carries this year. But there’s a relatively easy path to significant work for Mattison, making him worth a bench stash at the end of fantasy drafts.

What We Learned Last Year

• Mattison set career highs last year with 180 carries and 44 targets.
• He ranked 31st among RBs in expected PPR points per game.
• But Mattison finished just 43rd in actual PPR points per game.
• Only RBs Josh Jacobs and Dameon Pierce were worse in terms of actual vs. expected PPR points per game.
• Among 49 RBs with 90+ carries last year, Mattison ranked:
  • 34th in yards per carry
  • 33rd in yards after contact per attempt
  • 46th in broken tackles per attempt
  • 35th in NFL Next Gen Stats’ Rush Yards Over Expected Per Attempt
  • 39th in Pro Football Focus rushing grade
• Mattison was just as inefficient in the passing game. Among 46 RBs with 30+ targets, he ranked:
  • 40th in yards per target
  • 40th in yards per route
  • 42nd in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
• Mattison has fallen short of 4.0 yards per carry in each of the last three years. His 3.8 yards per carry over that span ranks 79th among 91 qualifying RBs.

What to Expect in 2024

• The Vikings released Mattison in late February, saving $3.35 million against the 2024 salary cap.
• Mattison signed a one-year, $2 million deal with the Raiders about three weeks later. He got $1.65 million guaranteed.
• RB Zamir White will be Mattison’s primary competition for carries. The 2022 fourth-rounder carried just 37 times over his first season-and-three-quarters. Then he was a workhorse over the final four games of last year, averaging 21.0 carries and 3.3 targets and ranking 11th among RBs in PPR points per game.
• White beat Mattison in both yards after contact per attempt and PFF rushing grade last year.
• Antonio Pierce returns as HC after taking over for the final nine games of last year. The Raiders ran it a bit more under Pierce than they did under previous HC Josh McDaniels.
  • Vegas went from a 61.2% pass rate in eight games under McDaniels to 57.3% pass under Pierce.
  • The Raiders registered a -1% Pass Rate Over Expected under McDaniels vs. -3% under Pierce.
• After a deal with Kliff Kingsbury fell through, the Raiders hired Luke Getsy as their new OC in February.
  • Getsy spent the last two years as Bears OC, where Chicago ranked 28th and 20th in total yards and 23rd and 18th in points.
  • The Bears ranked 32nd in pass rate and Pass Rate Over Expected in 2022; 31st in pass rate and 27th in PROE last year.
  • Those offenses were predominantly quarterbacked by Justin Fields, which undoubtedly skewed the offense toward the run. We’re projecting a more balanced attack from Getsy in Vegas. It’s worth noting that he was the Packers’ QB coach and passing-game coordinator before his stint with the Bears.
• Vegas figures to get subpar QB play this season, with Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell set to battle for the starting job this summer.
• The 2023 Raiders ranked:
  • 14th in Pro Football Focus run-blocking grades
  • 17th in adjusted line yards
• Three of last year’s starters – LT Kolton Miller, RG Dylan Parham, and C Andre James – return for the 2024 campaign.
• Second-round rookie Jackson Powers-Johnson is expected to start at LG, while 2022 seventh-rounder Thayer Munford is the favorite for the RT job.
• This projects to be a middling offensive line again in 2024.