Bottom Line

Jones has been a consistent fantasy contributor for several years now. We don’t expect that to change all that much, even with the Packers handing the reigns over to QB Jordan Love this season.

Early ADP has found Jones in the top half off RB2 range, making him a solid shot to take as either a late RB1 or RB2.

What We Learned Last Year

• Jones has spent the last four seasons as the Packers’ primary RB. He concluded 2022 as the RB9 in PPR.
• He posted six top-12 weekly finishes, with two more inside the top24. In total, Jones finished 15 of his 17 games as an RB3.
• The former fifth-round pick led the Packers in carries (213) and rushing yards (1,121), adding 7 total TDs.
  • Jones also finished second on the team in targets (73) and receptions (59), with 395 receiving yards.
• Among all NFL RBs since 2019, Jones ranks fifth in PPR points, sixth in rushing yards (4,108), fifth in receptions (207) and receiving yards (1,615), and third in total TDs (47).
• Jones hasn’t finished outside the top 12 in PPR since 2018.
  • Seeing at least 63 targets in every season during that span has been key.
• Among 41 RBs who received 100+ carries in 2022, Jones ranked second in PFF rushing grade, ninth in elusive rating, and 11th in yards after contact per attempt (3.20).
• However, Jones was not as effective as a receiver in 2022. Of the 17 RBs who saw 50+ targets last year, Jones finished 13th in PFF receiving grade, 10th in yards per route run (1.25), and 14th in drop rate (9.2%). All three marks declined vs. 2021.

What to Expect in 2023

• Jones restructured his contract with the team early this offseason, a move that’ll improve his chances of staying with the team through the end of his deal in 2025.
• It’s reasonable to expect the team will help new QB Jordan Love by running the ball plenty.
  • Last year, the Packers were fairly neutral in run-pass rate, though they did finish 18th in Pass Rate Over Expectation in 2022.
• Adding rookies TE Luke Musgrave, TE Tucker Kraft, and WR Jayden Reed will give Love more mouths to feed, but we’re not expecting them to damage Jones’ target share.