Aaron Jones - Fantasy Points Outlook

What You Need to Know:

• After flirting with other teams in free agency, Jones returned to GB last March on a 4-year, $48 million deal.
• He missed 1 game with a Week 10 right MCL sprain (and 1 for rest in Week 18). He sprained his left MCL in 2017; his right MCL in 2017 and 2018.
• When active, Jones saw AJ Dillon take a bite out of his rushing role. In 15 games together, Jones barely out-carried Dillon, 171-162. Jones predictably topped him in targets (65-30).
• Jones’ 4 rushing scores dipped from 9 the year prior. He handled 37.2% of Green Bay's red zone rushes — 2nd behind Dillon’s 45.3%.
• Jones’ PFF Elusive Rating (63.2), YAC per attempt (3.15) and YPC (4.6) all marked clear declines from 2020. Health likely played a role.
• All told, Jones finished as an RB1 only 4 times, although he added an RB13 finish.
• He ran behind a Packers O-line that ranked 23rd in PFF run blocking grade. Injuries and depth concerns have this unit profiling similarly in 2022.
• Dillon returns to steal a sizable chuck of the backfield touches. Only in year 3, Dillion’s likely nearing peak form.
• The loss of Devante Adams, though, allows for greater TD potential. Last year, Adams garnered 14 targets inside the 10 yard-line, converting 7 into scores.
• Green Bay added bodies at WR. But between rookies Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs and veteran Sammy Watkins, there’s no lock to produce right away. So Jones should remain a major pass-catching threat.
• Aaron Rodgers certainly remains one of the game’s top QBs. Last year, he ranked 3rd in PFF passing grade; 1st in QBR.
• Wes Hodkiewicz of Packers.com expects RBs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon to have a “big role” in the passing game.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Jones, 28 in December, probably won’t carry an RB1 ceiling for much longer.

He’s played a full season only once in his 5-year career. And AJ Dillon has clearly emerged as a worthy backfield partner.

The path to Jones delivering as a fringe RB1 is via the receiving game. With Green Bay missing ~240 targets from 2021, Jones is a prime candidate to see a boosted role. He’s ultimately fairly priced at a current RB12 ADP.