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Aaron Jones - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Aaron Jones
GB

RB GB

#7 Running Back

233 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 13
Experience: 4 Yr(s)
Age: 26
Height: 5'9"
Weight: 208
40 Time: 4.56

Weekly Outlook

3d Projection

High Floor

9.5

DS Projection

12.7

Consensus

38 other sites
16

Low Ceiling

16.9

Rest of
Season

14

Week 7 Projections
Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
60.7 0.5 3.5 24.5 0.2 12.7
Weekly Writeup
Washington hasn't been overly generous as a run defense but has allowed 2 TDs apiece to the top RBs for its past 2 opponents.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
65 0.6 3.4 27 0.2 14
Week 6
Jones was able to cobble together a strong fantasy day despite the limited carries. He saw 13 this week, producing 76 yards. He took advantage of his 4 targets, catching all of them for 34 yards and a TD.

Green Bay is making a point of getting A.J. Dillon involved thus far. He saw 11 carries to the 13 for Jones. The positive for Jones was the disparity in opportunities, with Jones seeing 17 to Dillon’s 11.

This was the 2nd time in 3 weeks that Dillon saw double-digit carries; the third straight week seeing double-digit opportunities. Going forward, this should be a bit concerning for anyone using Jones. We saw this tendency at times a season ago with Jamaal Williams and it appears Dillon is getting the vacated opportunities. Jones will be fine and still has a plenty high ceiling, but know there will be weeks where Dillon gets more opportunities than you may want.
Week 5
Although Jones out-touched his backup A.J. Dillon, 18-12, Jones played his typical snap share, which is roughly 69%, so his role was never in question. However, Dillon was much more productive as a receiver, as Jones only posted 1.5 yards per catch while Dillon tallied 49 yards and a TD. Fortunately, Jones was able to break through initial contact in the 4th quarter, leading to a 57-yard run that salvaged his fantasy day and helped him reach 100 yards on the ground.

After seeing between 18 and 23 touches in each of the last 4 games, Jones has shown to have an excellent workload, and one that should allow him to earn the draft-day value that had many fantasy managers selecting him in the 2nd round. However, he’s been more steady than spectacular, as he’s posted between 96 and 115 combined yards in each of his last 4 games after putting up a Week 1 clunker. And although he’s scored 5 TDs, 4 of those came in 1 game, so he’ll continue to have the chance of spike weeks while his floor games are generally quite good.
Week 4
A down week for Jones. He carried the ball 15 times for 48 yards. Jones also caught 3 of his 4 targets for 51 yards.

With A.J. Dillion also seeing 15 carries this week, the ceiling for Jones was capped. Going forward, Jones should be fine and clearly has the upside we saw two weeks ago. But his week to week ceiling is a bit capped on the weeks where Dillion gets 10+ touches.
Week 3
Jones was coming off a 4-TD performance in week 2 and didn’t disappoint on Sunday Night Football against the 49ers. He continues to see the lion’s share of the backfield touches, including 19 of the 25 carries at San Francisco.

The Packers led most of the game, which can only help Jones’ touch count. He finished with 19 carries for 82 yards, including a 2nd-quarter TD run. Jones added 2 catches (on 2 targets) for 14 yards.

Jones has a tough matchup on deck against a Steelers defense that has yet to surrender a score to an opposing RB. Fortunately, usage won’t be an issue for Jones in an offense that loves to have him involved on the ground and through the air. We still have him ranked at RB6 this week.

Week 5 brings a more favorable matchup at Cincinnati for Jones, who sits at RB4 in our rest-of-way rankings.
Week 2
Just when it seemed like Derrick Henry would be the RB to dominate Week 2, Aaron Jones said, “hold my beer!” The Packers RB carried the ball 17 times for 67 yards and a TD. He added 6 catches for 48 yards and 3 more TDs!

Green Bay clearly found a way to attack the Lions as Jones was 2nd on the team in targets in this game.

Going forward there is little reason to doubt the Packers RB. His ability to produce both on the ground and in the air with an offense that should be productive all season long means lots of fantasy upside.

AJ Dillon, who was expected to cut into Jones’ workload this season, has yet to be much of a factor. He has seen 11 total opportunities thus far through 2 games. Jones saw 23 in this game alone.
Week 1
Jones is a buy low. Due to the blowout loss, Jones split work with A.J. Dillion and Kylin Hill. Each RB got 4 or 5 carries on the week. Good news for Jones is he operated as the clear passing down back, getting 23 routes to only 10 for Dillion. In 2020 that number was closer to 50/50 when he played with Jamaal Williams. Brighter days are ahead for Jones as he squares off against a Lions D that just allowed 100 yards to rookie Elijah Mitchell.

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • The Packers re-signed Jones for $48 million over 4 years on the brink of free agency. That $12 million annual average ties Joe Mixon for 6th-highest among RBs.
  • Green Bay also let Jamaal Williams walk in free agency. Williams drew 27% of carries and 6.7% of targets last season.
  • AJ Dillon steps up in his place. We’ll see what the team’s usage for him looks like. He caught 21 total passes over 3 years as a workhorse at Boston College, though. So it’s fair to expect him to fall short of Williams’ receiving involvement.
  • Dillon’s size would suggest he’s a shoo-in for short-yardage/goal-line work. But Jones has been busy near the end zone. He ranked 8th in the league in carry share inside the 5-yard line in 2019, according to Pro Football Reference (72.2%) and tied for 10th last season, despite missing 2 games.
    • Jones saw 60% of Green Bay’s carries in that range, despite seeing a smaller share of total carries inside the 10 (51.3%) and in the red zone overall (50.7%).
  • Overall, Jones ranked 5th in Football Outsiders’ success rate, a measure of how often a RB gains what’s needed in a given situation.
  • TDs boosted Jones to his top-3 fantasy finish across formats in 2019, when he scored on 6.8% of carries and 6.7% of total touches. But Jones still finished 5th among RBs across formats last season despite sliding to 4.5% rushing TD rate and scoring on 4.4% of his total touches.
  • Both of those rates landed above average for the position, but neither was outlandish. Jones tied for 30th in rushing TD rate among 91 RBs who scored at least once on the ground. He tied for 39th in TDs per touch.
  • Football Outsiders rushing metrics had him performing near-identically between the past 2 seasons. Jones ranked 4th in rushing DYAR each season; 7th and 5th in DVOA.
  • On the receiving side, however, Jones went from 23rd in DYAR and 28th in DVOA among 49 qualifying backs in 2019 to 30th and 33rd out of 50 last season.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Jones has been an efficient, productive runner over his 2 seasons as the clear backfield leader in Green Bay. The Packers’ financial commitment to him this spring shows they believe he’s a key to the offense, which should keep his volume up. Shedding Jamaal Williams in favor of AJ Dillon ascending to the #2 role brings uncertainty, but Dillon comes with less proof as a receiving option than Williams.

Of course, the greatest unknown remains the Aaron Rodgers situation. Rodgers’ return would obviously be good news for the entire offense. His departure? Well, since the start of 2008, we’ve only seen 18 of 190 regular-season Packers games without Rodgers involved. And his replacement would be a 2nd-year QB who got no work after arriving in Round 1 of last year’s draft. So we really don’t know what the impact would be.

If Rodgers remains, Jones looks good in the 2nd half of Round 1. If Rodgers goes (or just sits), then the risk obviously increases.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Packers RB Aaron Jones (ankle) was limited in practice all week but isn’t listed on the final injury report. He should be ready for his usual role against the Steelers this weekend.

View all Aaron Jones Shark Bites »

Packers RB Aaron Jones has been limited in the first 2 practices of the week and is on the injury report with an ankle. We've heard nothing to suggest that this is a real concern for his Week 4 status, but check back tomorrow for another update.

View all Aaron Jones Shark Bites »

The Packers have agreed to a new 4-year deal with RB Aaron Jones. His agent, Drew Rosenhaus, says it's a $48 million pact, including a $13 million signing bonus. (We'll see about further details.) Reports had continued that Green Bay wanted to keep Jones around, and this likely indicates he wouldn't have found bigger money on the open market. Jones figures to remain the lead back. AJ Dillon will continue to find limited work available in his 2nd season. Dillon could see his role grow, though, with Jamaal Williams heading to free agency. We'll see how the whole backfield settles out.

View all Aaron Jones Shark Bites »

Packers RB Aaron Jones (calf) is active for tonight's game against the 49ers. Everything we've heard over the last few hours suggests he'll be limited in this one. That, of course, could change based on how he's playing and feeling. It's also worth noting that this is a tough matchup vs. a 49ers defense that sits 7th in Football Outsiders' run defense rankings and 3rd in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs. The strength of your other options should determine whether you want to roll the dice on Jones tonight. We'd avoid RBs Tyler Ervin and Dexter Williams with Jones active.

View all Aaron Jones Shark Bites »

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport hears that the Packers are "hopeful" RB Aaron Jones (calf) will be active for tonight's game against the 49ers. A final decision won't be made until warmups, though. And Rapoport adds that Jones "may end up being a limited role." It sounds like the absences of RBs Jamaal Williams and A.J. Dillon might be pushing Green Bay to get Jones back out there. We'll see if he's up when inactives come out around 7 pm ET and if we hear anything about his expected role. As of now, we'd consider Jones a risky Week 9 fantasy play.

View all Aaron Jones Shark Bites »

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