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Aaron Jones - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsAaron Jones's Basic Stats

Aaron Jones
ADP: N/A
Bye: 14
Experience: 5 Yr(s)
Age: 28.2
Height: 5'9"
Weight: 208
40 Time: 4.56
SPARQx (Rank): 112.00 (54%)
Burst Score (Rank): 127.30 (88%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.02 (89%)
Three Cone Drill (Rank): 6.82

Aaron Jones's Weekly Outlook

This is a regular season feature

We’ll have detailed analysis of this player’s performance added here after each week’s game. Weekly outlooks are posted Tuesday at 1pm EST each week.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Aaron Jones's 2022 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#16 Running Back

177.8 Projected Points

ADP Rush Atts Rush Yds Rush TDs 100 Fum Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs
Not Available 188.6 818.3 6.1 1.8 1.8 58.4 449.3 3

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsAaron Jones's Preseason Player Analysis

View RB Fantasy Rankings »

What You Need to Know:

  • After flirting with other teams in free agency, Jones returned to GB last March on a 4-year, $48 million deal.
  • He missed 1 game with a Week 10 right MCL sprain (and 1 for rest in Week 18). He sprained his left MCL in 2017; his right MCL in 2017 and 2018.
  • When active, Jones saw AJ Dillon take a bite out of his rushing role. In 15 games together, Jones barely out-carried Dillon, 171-162. Jones predictably topped him in targets (65-30).
  • Jones’ 4 rushing scores dipped from 9 the year prior. He handled 37.2% of Green Bay's red zone rushes — 2nd behind Dillon’s 45.3%.
  • Jones’ PFF Elusive Rating (63.2), YAC per attempt (3.15) and YPC (4.6) all marked clear declines from 2020. Health likely played a role.
  • All told, Jones finished as an RB1 only 4 times, although he added an RB13 finish.
  • He ran behind a Packers O-line that ranked 23rd in PFF run blocking grade. Injuries and depth concerns have this unit profiling similarly in 2022.
  • Dillon returns to steal a sizable chuck of the backfield touches. Only in year 3, Dillion’s likely nearing peak form.
  • The loss of Devante Adams, though, allows for greater TD potential. Last year, Adams garnered 14 targets inside the 10 yard-line, converting 7 into scores.
  • Green Bay added bodies at WR. But between rookies Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs and veteran Sammy Watkins, there’s no lock to produce right away. So Jones should remain a major pass-catching threat.
  • Aaron Rodgers certainly remains one of the game’s top QBs. Last year, he ranked 3rd in PFF passing grade; 1st in QBR.
  • Wes Hodkiewicz of Packers.com expects RBs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon to have a “big role” in the passing game.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Jones, 28 in December, probably won’t carry an RB1 ceiling for much longer.

He’s played a full season only once in his 5-year career. And AJ Dillon has clearly emerged as a worthy backfield partner.

The path to Jones delivering as a fringe RB1 is via the receiving game. With Green Bay missing ~240 targets from 2021, Jones is a prime candidate to see a boosted role. He’s ultimately fairly priced at a current RB12 ADP.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Aaron Jones, RB GB

10:40am EST 1/16/23

Jones expected back in '23

Packers RB Aaron Jones is set to count $20 million against the salary cap in 2023. But Packers GM Brian Gutekunst said he expects the veteran to return on a restructured deal. “Yeah, certainly, we expect to have him back,” Gutekunst recently told the media. “Obviously, he’s a dynamic player. It’s amazing. For a guy his size, to bring it every day, he rarely misses a practice, rarely misses a rep. The way he leads that football team, his consistency is amazing.” Indeed, Jones played all 17 games in 2023, setting career highs in rushing yards (1,121) and receptions (59). The 28-year-old’s fantasy ceiling will largely depend on whether Aaron Rodgers returns for another season.

View all Aaron Jones Shark Bites »

Packers RB Aaron Jones (ankle, knee) doesn't carry an injury designation ahead of Week 18 vs. the Lions. Jones looked healthier last week than he has in a while, ripping off 111 yards on 14 carries. There's no holding back in Sunday night's must-win game vs. the Lions, who rank 19th in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA over the last 5 weeks.

View all Aaron Jones Shark Bites »

Packers RB Aaron Jones (ankle, knee) practiced in a limited capacity for the 2nd straight day. We'll see if this persistent injury prevents Jones from suiting up in Week 18 vs. the Lions. Be sure to check back again tomorrow once we have additional information.

View all Aaron Jones Shark Bites »

Packers RB Aaron Jones (knee, ankle) logged limited participation on Wednesday. Jones has been dealing with injury for weeks but has yet to miss a game this season. We'll watch out for any updates regarding his status for Week 18 vs. the Lions as the week unfolds.

View all Aaron Jones Shark Bites »

Packers RB Aaron Jones racked up 111 yards on 14 carries in Sunday's win over the Vikings, averaging 7.9 per rush. That marked a steep turn from most of his production since a Week 10 shin injury. Jones had been averaging just 4.0 per rush since then, compared with 5.6 per carry through Week 10. Jones added meager receiving production -- 2 catches, 2 yards on 3 targets -- and ceded rushing scores to RB AJ Dillon and QB Aaron Rodgers. Dillon checked in just 2 carries short of Jones (going 12-41-1 rushing). Week 18 will pit Jones and the offense against a Lions defense that has been up-and-down as a scoring matchup. He managed just 45 total yards on 9 carries and 2 catches in the 1st meeting.

View all Aaron Jones Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View RB Dynasty Rankings »

Aaron Jones, RB GB
Dynasty MVP 124.5
Position Rank #32 RB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
515
672
672
Dynasty Write-up
Jones remained a highly efficient runner in 2022, ranking near the top of the league in DVOA and Success Rate. He played through several injuries, though. And the career-long Packer does turn 29 next December. Jones is under contract through the 2024 season.

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