Aaron Jones - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Jones dealt with multiple injuries last year but remained highly effective when healthy. He enters a situation that hasn’t been as RB-friendly, but he also might be the best RB they’ve had in at least a few years – especially in the passing game. Jones carries upside from a mid-RB2 ADP. Any higher, and the risk level climbs.

What We Learned Last Year

• Jones could still do it in his age-29 season. (To be fair, he didn’t turn 29 until Dec. 2.)
• He posted a career-high rushing success rate, according to Pro Football Reference. Jones’ 62% ranked second among all qualifying rushers, trailing only Bills QB Josh Allen.
  • His situation likely played a significant role, given that teammate AJ Dillon ranked 16th (out of 49 qualifiers).
  • But Jones has traditionally been good in that category. His rank by year …
    • 2017: not enough carries to qualify
    • 2018: fifth
    • 2019: seventh
    • 2020: 30th
    • 2021: 13th
• Jones added his most yards per catch (7.8) since 2019 but averaged his fewest receptions per game since 2018 (2.7).
• Injury disruptions didn’t help.
  • Jones injured a hamstring in Week 1 and missed the next two games.
  • He returned for Week 4 but left that game early and missed the next one.
  • He continued to see limited playing time in his Week 7 return and played to limited effectiveness over the next four games.
  • Then came three more missed contests … but a HUGE finish.
• Jones rushed at least 18 times and topped 100 rushing yards in each of Green Bay’s final five games, including the two playoff contests.
  • Over that span, he averaged 20.4 carries and 116.8 yards per game, as well as 5.7 yards per carry.
• He and the Packers reportedly tried to work out a contract adjustment to keep him around, but the two sides couldn’t agree. So Green Bay released him.

What to Expect in 2024

• A day after his release came news that Jones agreed to a one-year contract with the Packers, for $7 million guaranteed.
• Here’s what HC Kevin O’Connell said about Jones in mid-April: “[We’re] pretty darn excited to have Aaron [as] part of our team. We’ve felt, from the opposite sideline, his impact on games. I just know what he’s been a part of as an offensive weapon in the run game and also the pass game is something that has always drawn me to him.”
• We’ll see whether these Vikings throw to the RBs more, with Jones in town and TE T.J. Hockenson iffy for the start of the season (ACL + MCL tear).
  • Vikings RBs have collectively ranked 24th and 23rd in receptions in O’Connell’s two seasons.
• Jones comes from a more favorable RB receiving environment. Here’s how the Packers ranked in RB receptions by year since HC Matt LaFleur arrived:
  • 2019: sixth
  • 2020: ninth
  • 2021: 15th
  • 2022: 11th
  • 2023: 25th
• The worst year, of course, came when Jones missed the most time.
• Same deal for Green Bay’s RB PPR scoring:
  • 2019: sixth
  • 2020: seventh
  • 2021: 10th
  • 2022: eighth
  • 2023: 27th
• The rankings in both categories sat much lower for the Packers in the two years before LaFleur arrived, indicating that both he and Jones impacted the production.
• Minnesota might be ready to better support its RBs this year. The O-line ranked fourth in PFF run-blocking grade two years ago. Last season saw myriad injuries produce eight different starting O-line combinations.
• The money and O’Connell’s words say Jones will lead the 2024 backfield. But the coach has continued to speak positively about RB Ty Chandler. Expect him to remain plenty involved, which isn’t a bad thing for Jones.
  • He has averaged 12.1 carries per game for his career, reaching 13.0 for a season twice in seven years.
  • And the pass game is where Jones stands most ahead of Chandler. He should easily lead work there.
• The Vikings have been pass-friendly under O’Connell. The team has ranked seventh in the league in neutral-situation pass rate over his two seasons. Even after QB Kirk Cousins went down last year, they still ranked 11th.