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Aaron Jones - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsAaron Jones's Basic Stats

Aaron Jones
ADP: 5.5
Bye: 6
Experience: 7
Age: 29.6
Height: 5'9"
Weight: 208
40 Time: 4.56

SPARQx (Rank): 112.00 (56%)
Burst Score (Rank): 127.30 (87%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.02 (90%)
Three Cone Drill (Rank): 6.82

Aaron Jones's Weekly Outlook

Week 1 Projections
Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
54.5 0.37 2.8 20.7 0.11 10.3
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
59.2 0.3 3.3 24.9 0.1 10.8

Aaron Jones's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#24 Running Back

183.6 Projected Points

ADP Rush Atts Rush Yds Rush TDs 100 Fum Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs
5.5 175.9 773 5.25 0.2 1.7 39.6 292.8 1.56

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsAaron Jones's Preseason Player Analysis

View RB Fantasy Rankings »

Bottom Line

Jones dealt with multiple injuries last year but remained highly effective when healthy. He enters a situation that hasn’t been as RB-friendly, but he also might be the best RB they’ve had in at least a few years – especially in the passing game. Jones carries upside from a mid-RB2 ADP. Any higher, and the risk level climbs.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Jones could still do it in his age-29 season. (To be fair, he didn’t turn 29 until Dec. 2.)
  • He posted a career-high rushing success rate, according to Pro Football Reference. Jones’ 62% ranked second among all qualifying rushers, trailing only Bills QB Josh Allen.
    • His situation likely played a significant role, given that teammate AJ Dillon ranked 16th (out of 49 qualifiers).
    • But Jones has traditionally been good in that category. His rank by year …
      • 2017: not enough carries to qualify
      • 2018: fifth
      • 2019: seventh
      • 2020: 30th
      • 2021: 13th
  • Jones added his most yards per catch (7.8) since 2019 but averaged his fewest receptions per game since 2018 (2.7).
  • Injury disruptions didn’t help.
    • Jones injured a hamstring in Week 1 and missed the next two games.
    • He returned for Week 4 but left that game early and missed the next one.
    • He continued to see limited playing time in his Week 7 return and played to limited effectiveness over the next four games.
    • Then came three more missed contests … but a HUGE finish.
  • Jones rushed at least 18 times and topped 100 rushing yards in each of Green Bay’s final five games, including the two playoff contests.
    • Over that span, he averaged 20.4 carries and 116.8 yards per game, as well as 5.7 yards per carry.
  • He and the Packers reportedly tried to work out a contract adjustment to keep him around, but the two sides couldn’t agree. So Green Bay released him.

What to Expect in 2024

  • A day after his release came news that Jones agreed to a one-year contract with the Packers, for $7 million guaranteed.
  • Here’s what HC Kevin O’Connell said about Jones in mid-April: “[We’re] pretty darn excited to have Aaron [as] part of our team. We’ve felt, from the opposite sideline, his impact on games. I just know what he’s been a part of as an offensive weapon in the run game and also the pass game is something that has always drawn me to him.”
  • We’ll see whether these Vikings throw to the RBs more, with Jones in town and TE T.J. Hockenson iffy for the start of the season (ACL + MCL tear).
    • Vikings RBs have collectively ranked 24th and 23rd in receptions in O’Connell’s two seasons.
  • Jones comes from a more favorable RB receiving environment. Here’s how the Packers ranked in RB receptions by year since HC Matt LaFleur arrived:
    • 2019: sixth
    • 2020: ninth
    • 2021: 15th
    • 2022: 11th
    • 2023: 25th
  • The worst year, of course, came when Jones missed the most time.
  • Same deal for Green Bay’s RB PPR scoring:
    • 2019: sixth
    • 2020: seventh
    • 2021: 10th
    • 2022: eighth
    • 2023: 27th
  • The rankings in both categories sat much lower for the Packers in the two years before LaFleur arrived, indicating that both he and Jones impacted the production.
  • Minnesota might be ready to better support its RBs this year. The O-line ranked fourth in PFF run-blocking grade two years ago. Last season saw myriad injuries produce eight different starting O-line combinations.
  • The money and O’Connell’s words say Jones will lead the 2024 backfield. But the coach has continued to speak positively about RB Ty Chandler. Expect him to remain plenty involved, which isn’t a bad thing for Jones.
    • He has averaged 12.1 carries per game for his career, reaching 13.0 for a season twice in seven years.
    • And the pass game is where Jones stands most ahead of Chandler. He should easily lead work there.
  • The Vikings have been pass-friendly under O’Connell. The team has ranked seventh in the league in neutral-situation pass rate over his two seasons. Even after QB Kirk Cousins went down last year, they still ranked 11th.

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Cam Akers, RB HOU

11:35am EDT 7/3/24

Vikings Set to Bring Back Cam Akers?

The Vikings are expected to re-sign RB Cam Akers, according to Charley Walters of the Pioneer Press. That depends, of course, on Akers passing a physical. He joined Minnesota last September but went down for the season in Week 9 with a torn left Achilles' tendon. Over his six games with the team, Akers reached 29% snap shares four times, with a high of 39% in Week 7. He worked ahead of Ty Chandler over that span but behind then-starter Alexander Mattison.

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The Athletic's Alec Lewis says fans should "be keeping their eyes on" Vikings RB Ty Chandler, coming out of the team's recent minicamp. RT Brian O'Neill called Chandler one of the most explosive players on the team. "I see us having a one-two punch at running back, almost like they have in Detroit," O'Neill said, pairing Chandler with import Aaron Jones. "I don't know if that's what's happening on the offensive side, but I know that we have two true No. 1 running backs. I'd buy stock in Ty Chandler if I could." If the starting RT doesn't know how the RBs will be deployed this season, then odds are that remains a developing situation. It's worth noting that Jones -- signed immediately after the Packers released him -- turns 30 in December, has averaged 12.1 carries per game for his career, and has only reached 13.0 in a season twice across seven years.

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The Vikings have agreed to a deal with former Packers RB Aaron Jones, according to The Athletic's Dianna Russini. This comes just a day after Jones' release and Green Bay's announced deal with RB Josh Jacobs. Minnesota finished last season with Ty Chandler leading the backfield, and he should still factor in a decent amount. Jones has averaged 12.1 carries per game for his career and reached 13.0 in just two of his seven seasons. But we're betting Jones will lead the Vikings in both carries and RB targets. He should be a top-24 RB across draft formats and carries upside into the top 12. Jones turned 29 in December but also closed out the season with five straight games of 108+ rushing yards (and 18+ carries in each of those). Chandler looks like an RB4 -- with handcuff upside behind a starter who has missed games in five of seven seasons. Check our updated RB rankings to see where the new teammates land.

View all Aaron Jones Shark Bites »

The Packers now plan to release RB Aaron Jones, according to multiple reports. This comes on the heels of the Josh Jacobs news, which makes the move unsurprising. Jones spent all seven of his pro seasons to date with Green Bay and remained effective when healthy in 2023. That included racking up 108+ rushing yards in each of the final five games, including both playoff outings. Expect the 29-year-old to land another gig with at least solid opportunity. And keep an eye on Jones to potentially slide in best ball ADP while he doesn't have a team.

View all Aaron Jones Shark Bites »

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports that the Packers are expected to sign RB Josh Jacobs. It's a surprising development. Green Bay has been set to let RB AJ Dillon walk in free agency but had been talking with RB Aaron Jones to adjust his contract. This move could signal those talks have broken down and Jones will move on. That said, the Packers might also envision a potential Jacobs-Jones backfield. Either way, a healthy Jacobs should rebound vs. last year's struggles -- especially in a better offense. He sports upside into the top 12 at the position. Whether Jacobs' Underdog Fantasy ADP rises higher than its current RB14 level will likely depend on Jones' situation. Jacobs is worth a look in best ball drafts right now while the market tries to sort all that out. The Raiders, meanwhile, appear to have Zamir White in line to take over the lead job. He filled in admirably over the final four games last season and would be a fine fantasy option if he reaches the regular season in that role. There's still, of course, room for the Raiders to address their backfield in free agency and/or the draft. And it's worth remembering that White was a fourth-round pick who barely saw the field until Week 15 of his second season. Gauge your dynasty league to see if there's excitement over his opportunity and consider trading White if you can get a good return.

View all Josh Jacobs Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View RB Dynasty Rankings »

Aaron Jones, RB MIN
Dynasty MVP 52.6
Position Rank #95 RB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
192
276
384
Dynasty Write-up
Knee and hamstring injuries forced multiple missed games from Jones in 2023. While effective when healthy, Jones' $16 million cap hit proved too much for Green Bay to stomach. We'll see about the Vikings' QB play in 2024, but Jones won't hurt for touches.
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