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Aaron Jones - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Aaron Jones
GB

RB GB

#9 Running Back

233 Projected Points

ADP: 1.11
Bye: 13
Experience: 4 Yr(s)
Age: 26
Height: 5'9"
Weight: 208
40 Time: 4.56

2021 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#9 Running Back

233 Projected Points

ADP Rush Atts Rush Yds Rush TDs 100 Fum Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs
1.11 242 1163 10 4 2 56 456 2

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

3d Projection

Med Floor

200.4

DS Projection

233

Consensus

38 other sites
201.6

Med Ceiling

288.9

Ceiling Likelihood

Medium
How likely they will reach their ceiling projection

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • The Packers re-signed Jones for $48 million over 4 years on the brink of free agency. That $12 million annual average ties Joe Mixon for 6th-highest among RBs.
  • Green Bay also let Jamaal Williams walk in free agency. Williams drew 27% of carries and 6.7% of targets last season.
  • AJ Dillon steps up in his place. We’ll see what the team’s usage for him looks like. He caught 21 total passes over 3 years as a workhorse at Boston College, though. So it’s fair to expect him to fall short of Williams’ receiving involvement.
  • Dillon’s size would suggest he’s a shoo-in for short-yardage/goal-line work. But Jones has been busy near the end zone. He ranked 8th in the league in carry share inside the 5-yard line in 2019, according to Pro Football Reference (72.2%) and tied for 10th last season, despite missing 2 games.
    • Jones saw 60% of Green Bay’s carries in that range, despite seeing a smaller share of total carries inside the 10 (51.3%) and in the red zone overall (50.7%).
  • Overall, Jones ranked 5th in Football Outsiders’ success rate, a measure of how often a RB gains what’s needed in a given situation.
  • TDs boosted Jones to his top-3 fantasy finish across formats in 2019, when he scored on 6.8% of carries and 6.7% of total touches. But Jones still finished 5th among RBs across formats last season despite sliding to 4.5% rushing TD rate and scoring on 4.4% of his total touches.
  • Both of those rates landed above average for the position, but neither was outlandish. Jones tied for 30th in rushing TD rate among 91 RBs who scored at least once on the ground. He tied for 39th in TDs per touch.
  • Football Outsiders rushing metrics had him performing near-identically between the past 2 seasons. Jones ranked 4th in rushing DYAR each season; 7th and 5th in DVOA.
  • On the receiving side, however, Jones went from 23rd in DYAR and 28th in DVOA among 49 qualifying backs in 2019 to 30th and 33rd out of 50 last season.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Jones has been an efficient, productive runner over his 2 seasons as the clear backfield leader in Green Bay. The Packers’ financial commitment to him this spring shows they believe he’s a key to the offense, which should keep his volume up. Shedding Jamaal Williams in favor of AJ Dillon ascending to the #2 role brings uncertainty, but Dillon comes with less proof as a receiving option than Williams.

Of course, the greatest unknown remains the Aaron Rodgers situation. Rodgers’ return would obviously be good news for the entire offense. His departure? Well, since the start of 2008, we’ve only seen 18 of 190 regular-season Packers games without Rodgers involved. And his replacement would be a 2nd-year QB who got no work after arriving in Round 1 of last year’s draft. So we really don’t know what the impact would be.

If Rodgers remains, Jones looks good in the 2nd half of Round 1. If Rodgers goes (or just sits), then the risk obviously increases.

 

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

The Packers have agreed to a new 4-year deal with RB Aaron Jones. His agent, Drew Rosenhaus, says it's a $48 million pact, including a $13 million signing bonus. (We'll see about further details.) Reports had continued that Green Bay wanted to keep Jones around, and this likely indicates he wouldn't have found bigger money on the open market. Jones figures to remain the lead back. AJ Dillon will continue to find limited work available in his 2nd season. Dillon could see his role grow, though, with Jamaal Williams heading to free agency. We'll see how the whole backfield settles out.

View all Aaron Jones Shark Bites »

Packers RB Aaron Jones (calf) is active for tonight's game against the 49ers. Everything we've heard over the last few hours suggests he'll be limited in this one. That, of course, could change based on how he's playing and feeling. It's also worth noting that this is a tough matchup vs. a 49ers defense that sits 7th in Football Outsiders' run defense rankings and 3rd in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs. The strength of your other options should determine whether you want to roll the dice on Jones tonight. We'd avoid RBs Tyler Ervin and Dexter Williams with Jones active.

View all Aaron Jones Shark Bites »

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport hears that the Packers are "hopeful" RB Aaron Jones (calf) will be active for tonight's game against the 49ers. A final decision won't be made until warmups, though. And Rapoport adds that Jones "may end up being a limited role." It sounds like the absences of RBs Jamaal Williams and A.J. Dillon might be pushing Green Bay to get Jones back out there. We'll see if he's up when inactives come out around 7 pm ET and if we hear anything about his expected role. As of now, we'd consider Jones a risky Week 9 fantasy play.

View all Aaron Jones Shark Bites »

Packers RB Aaron Jones (calf) was listed as a limited practice participant all week and is officially questionable for Thursday night's game vs. the 49ers. It's possible Green Bay pushes him back out there with RBs Jamaal Williams and A.J. Dillon out for this one. If Jones sits out, it'll be Tyler Ervin and Dexter Williams in the Packers' backfield. We'll get the inactives around 6 pm ET tomorrow.

View all Aaron Jones Shark Bites »

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport hears that there's "pessimism" about Packers RB Aaron Jones' availability for Thursday night's game against the 49ers. The team continues to be cautious bringing him back from that calf injury. With RBs Jamaal Williams and A.J. Dillon both out, it looks like Green Bay will be rolling with RBs Dexter Williams and Tyler Ervin, who have combined for 15 NFL carries. ESPN's Rob Demovsky tweeted today that Williams "has given them no reason to trust him" and that the Packers could "use a short pass game w/ Ervin to act as runs."

View all Aaron Jones Shark Bites »

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