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Aaron Jones - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsAaron Jones's Basic Stats

Aaron Jones
ADP: N/A
Bye: 6
Experience: 6 Yr(s)
Age: 29.0
Height: 5'9"
Weight: 208
40 Time: 4.56
SPARQx (Rank): 112.00 (54%)
Burst Score (Rank): 127.30 (88%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.02 (89%)
Three Cone Drill (Rank): 6.82

Aaron Jones's Weekly Outlook

Week 13 Projections
Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
0 0 0 0 0 -0.2
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
35.8 0.4 2.4 20.2 0.2 8.6

Aaron Jones's 2023 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#34 Running Back

137.1 Projected Points

ADP Rush Atts Rush Yds Rush TDs 100 Fum Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs
Not Available 138.9 572.9 5.6 1.3 0.3 38.8 323.8 2.4

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsAaron Jones's Preseason Player Analysis

View RB Fantasy Rankings »
Bottom Line

Jones has been a consistent fantasy contributor for several years now. We don’t expect that to change all that much, even with the Packers handing the reigns over to QB Jordan Love this season.

Early ADP has found Jones in the top half off RB2 range, making him a solid shot to take as either a late RB1 or RB2.


What We Learned Last Year
  • Jones has spent the last four seasons as the Packers’ primary RB. He concluded 2022 as the RB9 in PPR.
  • He posted six top-12 weekly finishes, with two more inside the top24. In total, Jones finished 15 of his 17 games as an RB3.
  • The former fifth-round pick led the Packers in carries (213) and rushing yards (1,121), adding 7 total TDs.
    • Jones also finished second on the team in targets (73) and receptions (59), with 395 receiving yards.
  • Among all NFL RBs since 2019, Jones ranks fifth in PPR points, sixth in rushing yards (4,108), fifth in receptions (207) and receiving yards (1,615), and third in total TDs (47).
  • Jones hasn’t finished outside the top 12 in PPR since 2018.
    • Seeing at least 63 targets in every season during that span has been key.
  • Among 41 RBs who received 100+ carries in 2022, Jones ranked second in PFF rushing grade, ninth in elusive rating, and 11th in yards after contact per attempt (3.20).
  • However, Jones was not as effective as a receiver in 2022. Of the 17 RBs who saw 50+ targets last year, Jones finished 13th in PFF receiving grade, 10th in yards per route run (1.25), and 14th in drop rate (9.2%). All three marks declined vs. 2021.

What to Expect in 2023
  • Jones restructured his contract with the team early this offseason, a move that’ll improve his chances of staying with the team through the end of his deal in 2025.
  • It’s reasonable to expect the team will help new QB Jordan Love by running the ball plenty.
    • Last year, the Packers were fairly neutral in run-pass rate, though they did finish 18th in Pass Rate Over Expectation in 2022.
  • Adding rookies TE Luke Musgrave, TE Tucker Kraft, and WR Jayden Reed will give Love more mouths to feed, but we’re not expecting them to damage Jones’ target share.

Adjust Aaron Jones's Projections

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Aaron Jones, RB GB

2:41pm EST 12/1/23

Aaron Jones out for Week 13

Packers RB Aaron Jones (knee) is out for Sunday night's game vs. the Chiefs. He remained sidelined in practice all week. RB A.J. Dillon will again operate as Green Bay's primary ball carrier this weekend, but he'll also likely cede most passing-down work to RB Patrick Taylor. That's a concern with the Packers 6-point underdogs.

View all Aaron Jones Shark Bites »

Packers RB Aaron Jones (knee) did not practice on Wednesday. That's not a good start for his chances of returning for Sunday night's game vs. the Chiefs. Jones should stay parked on fantasy benches for now.

View all Aaron Jones Shark Bites »

Packers RB Aaron Jones (knee) is out for Thursday's game vs. the Lions. RB A.J. Dillon (groin) is listed as questionable after a limited week of practice. Dillon should be ready to serve as Green Bay's lead ball carrier on Thanksgiving, but you'll need to check back around 11 am ET tomorrow to make sure he's active.

View all Aaron Jones Shark Bites »

Packers RB Aaron Jones is considered "week-to-week" with an MCL sprain, ESPN's Adam Schefter reports. Schefters adds that Jones is "unlikely" to play vs. the Lions on Thanksgiving. We'd consider him no better than 50/50 to be ready for Week 13. RB A.J. Dillon will take over as Green Bay's lead ball-carrier in Jones' absence. But Dillon lost passing-down work to RB Patrick Taylor when Jones was sidelined earlier this season.

View all Aaron Jones Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View RB Dynasty Rankings »

Aaron Jones, RB GB
Dynasty MVP 48.7
Position Rank #100 RB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
186
262
315
Dynasty Write-up
Jones remained a highly efficient runner in 2022, ranking near the top of the league in DVOA and Success Rate. He played through several injuries, though. And the career-long Packer turns 29 in December. Jones is under contract through the 2024 season.
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