Amari Cooper - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Cooper has rarely challenged for the top 12 among fantasy WRs. But he has consistently delivered solid-to-good WR2 numbers. He still looks like the best bet for receiving production among Browns in 2024. We’ll see if the QB play can step up to help him. As long as Cooper’s ADP stays in WR3 range, he’ll be a solid target across fantasy formats.

What We Learned Last Year

• Cooper fared better when QB Deshaun Watson was on the field.
  • In Watson’s five full games, Cooper averaged 2.73 yards per route. That would have been the best mark if his career by a wide margin for the full season.
  • The other 11 contests (including the playoff loss) found Cooper averaging just 1.99 yards per route.
• Interestingly, that ran counter to 2022, Cooper’s first year in Cleveland.
  • Then, his production dipped when Watson returned from suspension to take over for QB Jacoby Brissett – including a drop from WR14 in total PPR points weeks 1-12 to WR38 over the final six weeks.
• Really, the culprits were backup QBs not named Joe Flacco. The veteran swooped in into Week 13 with cape on and helped Cooper to an even better 2.78 yards per route.
  • In games piloted by someone other than Flacco or Watson, Cooper managed a measly 1.30 yards per route.
• The biggest key was deep passing. Cooper drew the deepest average depth of target in his career in 2023 (14.1), a season after setting his previous high (13.3).
  • Watson improved on his poor deep passing of 2022. According to Pro Football Focus, on throws 20+ yards downfield:
    • He went from 23.1% completions in 2022 to 34.8% last season.
    • He jumped from 6.9 yards per attempt to 12.2.
    • And Watson increased his deep attempts from 7.6% of total attempts to 13.5%.
  • His performance in that area still fell well short of where it was during his Houston years. That leaves room for further improvement, though we obviously can’t count on it.
• Cooper’s target share declined in 2023 to 23.6% (25th among WRs) after ranking 17th at the position the year before. Both rates beat his target shares for the previous four seasons, though.

What to Expect in 2024

• Watson is coming off surgery for the right shoulder injury that ended his 2023 season. He wasn’t fully back by June minicamp but threw some in the spring workouts and appears on track for training camp.
• Watson’s progress and status will bear watching throughout the summer. It will be a key factor in projecting Cooper’s season.
• Cleveland let Joe Flacco walk but imported QB Jameis Winston as the new backup. Like Watson and Flacco, Winston hasn’t been the most efficient passer but is willing to challenge defenses downfield.
• Cooper heads into his age-30 season, but our aging-curve research says that hasn’t been a worrisome age for high-level WRs. And the Cooper of 2023 looked just like the Cooper of other recent seasons.
• He’s not a target hog and really hasn’t been throughout his career. That lowers Cooper’s annual fantasy ceiling, but it also makes WR Jerry Jeudy’s arrival less worrisome. We have a lot more data backing Cooper as the likely corps leader than we do suggesting Jeudy’s a threat to overtake him.
  • Does Jeudy siphon some of his target share away? That’s always possible. But Cooper’s record of target shares and production makes him look like a pretty solid bet to stay in the range where he has operated for years.
• It’s also possible these Browns plan to pass more. They replaced OC Alex Van Pelt with Ken Dorsey, who got fired just past the midway point of his second season as Buffalo’s OC.
  • Dorsey’s Bills ranked among the league’s most pass-heavy offenses. Cleveland ranked 19th in neutral-situation pass rate over the past two years.
  • Throw in the uncertainty surrounding RB Nick Chubb’s return from a serious knee injury, and it would make sense for the passing volume to get at least a slight boost.