Bottom Line

Smith Jr. entered the league as a high-second-round NFL draft pick and has unfortunately stalled due to various injuries.

He now finds himself on a Bengals roster that boasts one of the league’s most prolific passing offenses.

Maybe Smith Jr. will rebound his career and be a viable fantasy option in 2023, but the jury is still out on how much we should be excited about him.

What We Learned Last Year

• Smith Jr. spent the 2022 season primarily serving as a backup TE in the Vikings’ offense. He concluded the season as the TE43 overall in PPR with 6.9 points per game.
• He only appeared in eight games last season due to a high ankle sprain sustained in Week 8.
• The former second-rounder logged a top-five fantasy performance in Week 2 of 2022 but only had three other top-24 weekly finishes to speak of. He was otherwise an afterthought.
• Thus far in his career, Smith Jr. has been a bust. The Vikings spent the 50th overall pick of the 2019 NFL Draft on him, yielding little to no return on that investment.
• In his four years of NFL experience (three healthy seasons, missed 2021 with a torn meniscus), Smith Jr. has logged just eight games with 10+ PPR points. He’s also never tallied more than 40+ receptions or 400+ receiving yards in a single season to date.
• Prior to the NFL trade deadline, the Vikings acquired TE T.J. Hockenson from the Lions in exchange for draft pick compensation, effectively ending Smith Jr.’s tenure as a loosely relevant player on the roster. The team subsequently didn’t re-sign him, making Smith Jr. a free agent.

What to Expect in 2023

• Smith Jr. inked a one-year “prove it” deal with the Bengals this offseason worth up to $2 million ($1.75 million base salary).
• As frustrating as his career has been, Smith Jr.’s athletic talent and pedigree are all there:
  • His father, Irv Sr., was a first-round NFL draft pick who played seven seasons as a TE in the NFL between 1993-99 with three different teams.
  • His uncle, Ed, played seven seasons of minor league baseball before bouncing around NFL Europe, the XFL, and playing 30 career games as a TE in the NFL with three different teams.
• Landing with the Bengals’ offense definitely helps Smith’s speculative case for professional redemption.
• Ultimately, Smith Jr. is a post-hype sleeper who should start the 2023 season on the waiver wire.