T.J. Hockenson - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Uncertainty. That’s the story of Hockenson’s 2024 outlook. We’ll have to watch through the summer to see when the TE will actually be able to play. And we’ll have to see how his team’s new QB situation is developing. Don’t look at Hockenson as a fantasy starter at draft time. You can stash him later where it makes sense in PPR leagues, in case he retains high target volume upon his return.

What We Learned Last Year

• Hockenson saw good usage throughout the season, but his target share climbed after Justin Jefferson went down.
  • The TE drew 19.9% of targets in the five full games he shared with Jefferson, averaging 7.6 targets per game.
  • That jumped to 9.6 targets per game and a 27.4% share in eight games without Jefferson.
  • Hockenson’s overall 8.5 targets per game led the position. But even the lower of those above averages would have ranked fifth.
• That followed the enhanced usage he saw after the 2022 trade to Minnesota. Then, Hockenson went from averaging 6.1 targets over the first seven weeks in Detroit to 8.6 per game across 10 regular-season contests with the Vikings.
• His yards per catch have dipped so far following the move, from 11.1 with the Lions to 9.5 with the Vikings. But his average target depths have remained in line with earlier in his career. And Hockenson matched the second-best receiving success rate of his career last season.
• He also posted a career-high catch rate, despite losing Kirk Cousins in Week 8 and closing out the year with Joshua Dobbs, Jaren Hall, Nick Mullens.
• Of course, what Hockenson did on the field matters a lot less than what took him off it. The TE tore the ACL and MCL in his right knee in Week 16.
  • In April, he said: This put me out nine months. I can’t even train.”

What to Expect in 2024

• That nine-month timeline would mean a late-September return. The Vikings are leaving Hockenson on the PUP list to open the year, which means he'll miss at least four games.
  • Week 5 finds Minnesota playing the Jets in London, with a bye to follow.
  • The Vikings could either view that as a good season-debut date for the TE, with a break after -- or reason to hold Hockenson out until Week 7.
  • We probably won't know which they prefer until much closer to that time.
• Either way, the recovery figures to leave Hockenson short of 100% effectiveness when he does return to the field. The limited training ability through the offseason will affect that as well.
• It’s at least mildly encouraging that the Vikings made no big move for an insurance TE. Johnny Mundt and Josh Oliver (a blocking specialist) lead the position for now.
• Minnesota, of course, also moved on from Cousins. They signed Sam Darnold in the wake of that departure and then drafted J.J. McCarthy 11th overall.
• McCarthy will miss the season after meniscus surgery, leaving the iffy Darnold to pilot the offense. We didn't downgrade Hockenson's outlook for that change, but the QB situation certainly doesn't boost him.