T.J. Hockenson - Fantasy Points Outlook

What You Need to Know:

• Hockenson started hot last year, tallying 16 catches, 163 yards and 2 scores over the first 2 weeks.
• He didn’t come close to performing as a TE1 over his final 10 games, though. From Week 3 to Week 13, Hockenson ranked as the TE15 in PPG. He scored only twice over that stretch and averaged just 42 YPG.
• He played through an early-season knee injury, but it never cost him games.
• The former 1st rounder did sit out the final 4 games with a thumb injury that required surgery.
• Overall, Hockenson posted career highs in catch rate (75.3%), contested catch rate (78.6%) and drop rate (1.6%). His 73.6 PFF receiving grade was in line with 2020 as well.
• Hockenson posted just 9.6 YPC — a career-low. But his 1.48 yards per route run ranked a respectable 11th among 25 TEs with 50+ targets.
• Over 53% of his pass snaps came out of the slot. Hockenson’s expected to be used in more non-traditional ways under new OC Ben Johnson, formerly his TE coach.
• Said Hock: "Ben has seen me do routes that most guys or coordinators wouldn't think that a tight end could do," Hockenson said at minicamp. "Splitting me out, running a comeback, splitting me out and running things that really only wide receivers do. "He's seen me run it and he's seen me run it well. Just being able to have that in his head – we're already seeing it now (with me) being split out and doing some things and showing what we got."
• Jared Goff returns for year 2 in Detroit. He’s hardly an asset for Hockenson, but Goff’s penchant for hitting short routes bodes well for the TE’s involvement.
• Don’t consider Hockenson a lock to repeat his 7 targets per game, though.
• Detroit added 2 speed WRs in veteran DJ Chark and rookie Jameson Williams, although Williams is iffy for Week 1 following a December ACL tear.
• We’ll also see more consistent usage from Amon-Ra St. Brown, who broke out down the stretch in ’21.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

We’ve now seen Hockenson for 3 pro seasons.

After a quiet rookie year, he’s finished as the TE7 twice in PPR points per game.

That’s a fine range for his fantasy floor. But the upside case for him has weakened, especially with his target competition looking significantly stronger.