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T.J. Hockenson - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

T.J. Hockenson
DET

TE DET

#6 Tight End

128 Projected Points

ADP: 6.2
Bye: 9
Experience: 2 Yr(s)
Age: 24
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 251
40 Time: 4.70

2021 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#6 Tight End

128 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
6.2 81 929 6 1

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

3d Projection

Med Floor

107.5

DS Projection

128

Consensus

38 other sites
77.3

Low Ceiling

149.8

Ceiling Likelihood

Medium
How likely they will reach their ceiling projection

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Hockenson’s total PPR points over his first 2 seasons ranks just 27th all time among TEs, behind active contemporaries:
    • Rob Gronkowski (1st)
    • Jimmy Graham (4th)
    • George Kittle (5th)
    • Mark Andrews (13th)
    • Evan Engram (14th)
    • Noah Fant (25th)
    • Hunter Henry (26th)
  • Hockenson endured a tough rookie campaign. He exploded for a 6-131-1 receiving line in the opener but then saw his targets and playing time waver before a season-ending ankle injury.
  • Hockenson’s playing time steadied in Year 2, and his Pro Football Focus grades improved across the board.
  • Most importantly -- for fantasy -- he climbed from 33rd in receiving grade among 56 TEs with 20+ targets in 2019 to a tie for 12th among 55 TEs last season.
  • Changes at QB -- from Matthew Stafford to Jared Goff -- and the coaching staff increase the uncertainty heading into 2021.
  • The QB change might be good for Hockenson’s outlook. Stafford threw 12.7% of his passes deep last season (20+ yards downfield), whereas Jared Goff threw a career-low 7.5% in that range. Among their 5 shared seasons, just 1 has found Goff throw deep at a higher rate than Stafford. So Goff prefers to work shorter.
  • Goff has graded out much better in the “medium” (10-19 yards downfield) and “short” (0-9) ranges. He has graded better than Stafford on “short” passes 3 of the past 4 years and beaten Stafford in the “medium” range 2 of the past 3 -- including 2020 in both cases.
  • With a 7.9 average depth of target through 2 seasons, according to PFF, Hockenson obviously does a lot more work in those ranges than the “deep” area.
  • Lions TEs coach Ben Johnson said in May of Hockenson: “There’s plenty of meat still on the bone. We’re looking forward to getting even more from him. The sky’s the limit for this kid. I really look forward to seeing him take that next step.”
  • The Lions jettisoned Marvin Jones, Kenny Golladay and Danny Amendola this offseason, among others. Overall, returning players accounted for just 35% of last year’s targets -- with Hockenson making up more than half of that.
  • The new WR corps features Tyrell Williams, Breshad Perriman and Amon-Ra St. Brown fighting 2nd-year incumbent Quintez Cephus for roles.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Hockenson sure looks like the lead receiver for a Lions team that traded a big-armed, long-throwing QB for a guy who prefers to work the shorter ranges. The TE’s progression has been decent through 2 seasons, but the volume opportunity is what really boosts his fantasy outlook here. Just 5 TEs garnered 100+ targets last season, including Hockenson. It’ll likely take an injury to keep him from getting back to that range in 2021. With Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones and others gone, he sports target upside into 120+ territory. Hockenson’s #5 position in TE ADP looks fine. The fact that he’s going 2+ rounds behind the top 3, though, adds value to the Lion.

 

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

The Lions believe T.J. Hockenson is capable of making another leap forward in his 3rd NFL season. “I think it’s been a fairly consistent message all offseason, from Coach [Dan] Campbell to [OC Anthony] Lynn, that there’s plenty of meat still on that bone for him,” TEs coach Ben Johnson said. “And I think he’s embraced that. He agrees with that. We’re really looking forward to getting more out of him now.” Hockenson turned 101 targets into a 67-723-6 line last year and should be in for a boost in targets in 2021 considering Detroit's crappy WR corps. The stars are aligning for a big fantasy season here.

View all T.J. Hockenson Shark Bites »

Lions TE T.J. Hockenson (toe) is active for today’s game vs. Washington. He was added to the injury report and sidelined on Thursday but returned to a limited practice on Friday. Hockenson carries a bit more risk with the toe issue but remains a strong fantasy play vs. Washington’s 26th-ranked TE defense.

View all T.J. Hockenson Shark Bites »

Lions TE T.J. Hockenson (toe) is expected to play against Washington today, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Hockenson missed practice on Thursday and was limited on Friday, so there's elevated risk here. But he remains a top-3 TE play on the slate.

View all T.J. Hockenson Shark Bites »

Lions TE T.J. Hockenson (toe) is listed as questionable for this weekend’s game vs. Washington. He was added to the injury report and sidelined on Thursday but returned to a limited practice on Friday. His game kicks off at 1 pm ET on Sunday, so we’ll find out if Hockenson is active by noon. The toe obviously adds some risk to his Week 10 profile.

View all T.J. Hockenson Shark Bites »

Lions TE T.J. Hockenson was added to Thursday's injury report with a toe and didn't practice. His status for this weekend's game against Washington is now in question. Check back tomorrow for another update.

View all T.J. Hockenson Shark Bites »

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