What You Need to Know:

• Hockenson’s total PPR points over his first 2 seasons ranks just 27th all time among TEs, behind active contemporaries:
  • Rob Gronkowski (1st)
  • Jimmy Graham (4th)
  • George Kittle (5th)
  • Mark Andrews (13th)
  • Evan Engram (14th)
  • Noah Fant (25th)
  • Hunter Henry (26th)
• Hockenson endured a tough rookie campaign. He exploded for a 6-131-1 receiving line in the opener but then saw his targets and playing time waver before a season-ending ankle injury.
• Hockenson’s playing time steadied in Year 2, and his Pro Football Focus grades improved across the board.
• Most importantly -- for fantasy -- he climbed from 33rd in receiving grade among 56 TEs with 20+ targets in 2019 to a tie for 12th among 55 TEs last season.
• Changes at QB -- from Matthew Stafford to Jared Goff -- and the coaching staff increase the uncertainty heading into 2021.
• The QB change might be good for Hockenson’s outlook. Stafford threw 12.7% of his passes deep last season (20+ yards downfield), whereas Jared Goff threw a career-low 7.5% in that range. Among their 5 shared seasons, just 1 has found Goff throw deep at a higher rate than Stafford. So Goff prefers to work shorter.
• Goff has graded out much better in the “medium” (10-19 yards downfield) and “short” (0-9) ranges. He has graded better than Stafford on “short” passes 3 of the past 4 years and beaten Stafford in the “medium” range 2 of the past 3 -- including 2020 in both cases.
• With a 7.9 average depth of target through 2 seasons, according to PFF, Hockenson obviously does a lot more work in those ranges than the “deep” area.
• Lions TEs coach Ben Johnson said in May of Hockenson: “There’s plenty of meat still on the bone. We’re looking forward to getting even more from him. The sky’s the limit for this kid. I really look forward to seeing him take that next step.”
• The Lions jettisoned Marvin Jones, Kenny Golladay and Danny Amendola this offseason, among others. Overall, returning players accounted for just 35% of last year’s targets -- with Hockenson making up more than half of that.
• The new WR corps features Tyrell Williams, Breshad Perriman and Amon-Ra St. Brown fighting 2nd-year incumbent Quintez Cephus for roles.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Hockenson sure looks like the lead receiver for a Lions team that traded a big-armed, long-throwing QB for a guy who prefers to work the shorter ranges. The TE’s progression has been decent through 2 seasons, but the volume opportunity is what really boosts his fantasy outlook here. Just 5 TEs garnered 100+ targets last season, including Hockenson. It’ll likely take an injury to keep him from getting back to that range in 2021. With Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones and others gone, he sports target upside into 120+ territory. Hockenson’s #5 position in TE ADP looks fine. The fact that he’s going 2+ rounds behind the top 3, though, adds value to the Lion.