Romeo Doubs - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Advanced metrics say that Doubs should be in for a playing-time decrease vs. other Packers WRs. We’ll see whether that’s on tap based on summer reports and clues from LaFleur. The crowded corps in Green Bay limits everyone’s upside, though. And you probably won’t miss much if you just pass on this wideout whatever the draft cost.

What We Learned Last Year

• Doubs’ 2023 fantasy production was a lesson in TD regression.
• He ranked 33rd among PPR WRs through Week 11, thanks to 7 TDs among just 38 receptions.
  • Doubs ranked 33rd over that span in total targets.
  • He tied for 44th among WRs in target share.
  • He checked in 39th in receptions and 50th in receiving yards.
  • Only Tyreek Hill and Courtland Sutton beat him in TDs.
• Doubs scored just one more TD from Week 12 on. During that span, he also:
  • Tied for 53rd in targets (with Greg Dortch and Tyler Boyd, behind D.J. Chark and Alec Pierce)
  • Dropped to 79th in target share
  • Ranked 45th in receptions
  • And checked in 41st in receiving yards.
• Doubs did lead Packers WRs in playing time for the season and the team in total targets. He trailed Jayden Reed (5.875 to 5.65) in targets per game, tied Reed in TD catches, and ranked just sixth on the team in yards per reception
• Doubs ranked fourth among Packers in average target depth and fourth in yards per route. His 1.64 trailed …
  • Bo Melton (2.68)
  • Jayden Reed (1.95)
  • And Dontayvion Wicks (1.94).

What to Expect in 2024

• According to Packers Wire, HC Matt LaFleur says Doubs responded “in a big way” to challenges from his coaches.
  • LaFleur: “I think Rome had an outstanding spring. It’s evident in the work he puts in on a daily basis. He’s in there in the morning, catching off the JUGS. He’s one of the last guys to leave the building. He’s very deliberate about the work he puts in. And it shows. We challenged him on a couple things that we thought he could do a better job with, really stressing the importance of opening up his stride, he’s embraced that. You’ve seen that. He’s had a lot of great moments.”
• Doubs ranked second among Packers WRs in playing time as a 2022 rookie and then led the group in his second season. Although he trailed teammates in efficiency metrics last year, it seems pretty clear that Doubs stands in good position for playing time.
• He’ll face challenges from Reed, a potentially healthier Christian Watson, Wicks, and perhaps even Melton. We’ll see in training camp and preseason who might have a shot at actually passing Doubs in playing time and/or targets.
• Bet on full-season TD regression, like we saw in the second half of last year.
  • Doubs scored on 13.6% of his receptions in 2023; 7.1% the year before.
  • Doubs did, however, tie for 10th in the league in end zone targets, according to PFF – while ranking just 37th among WRs in total targets.
  • That proved significantly different from his rookie year, when Doubs tied for 62nd in total targets but just 88th in end-zone looks.
• Perhaps he became a prized end-zone target in Year 2. But Watson beat him 15-14 on significantly less playing time.
• Doubs also ranked just sixth among Packers WRs in targets per route:
  • Melton (targeted on 28.6% of routes)
  • Reed (22.9%)
  • Samori Toure (21.7%)
  • Malik Heath (20.5%)
  • Wicks (19.6%)
  • Doubs (18.9%)
• There’s room for the offense to pass a bit more. Last year produced the lowest rank in neutral pass rate for the Packers since LaFleur arrived. By season, they’ve ranked:
  • 2019: 5th
  • 2020: 10th
  • 2021: 11th
  • 2022: 18th
  • 2023: 20th
• The past two years have featured WR Davante Adams leaving (2022) and then Aaron Rodgers leaving. So it made sense for LaFleur to lean away from the pass a bit.
• Does he lean back in the other direction after a good starting debut from QB Jordan Love and now that his very young pass-catching corps has a year of experience? If so, how much?
  • We’ll see about that. Paying up for RB Josh Jacobs in free agency and then drafting RB MarShawn Lloyd complicates that equation a bit.