Bottom Line

Samuel was a major fantasy disappointment last year.

He missed four games, saw his efficiency tank, and lost a little work after RB Christian McCaffrey arrived.

Durability and McCaffrey remain problems heading into 2023. But Samuel is a good bet to rebound in efficiency metrics such as yards per target and TD rate.

And he’ll come much cheaper in fantasy drafts this summer.

What We Learned Last Year

• Samuel tallied 56 catches for 632 yards and two TDs in 13 games last year. He added another 232 yards and three TDs on 42 carries.
• Samuel missed Week 8 with a hamstring injury and Weeks 15 through 17 with MCL and ankle sprains. He was also limited in the regular-season finale, with the 49ers having little to play for.
• His scoring average in the other 12 games would have ranked 21st among WRs in PPR points per game and 18th in non-PPR.
• It was a huge drop in production from 2021, when Samuel finished third at his position in PPR points per game and second in non-PPR.
• Samuel set career highs in 2021 with 11.6 yards per target and 2.93 yards per route run … then set career lows last year with 6.7 yards per target and 1.85 yards per route.
• His receiving TD rate also dropped from 7.8% to 3.6%. (League-wide WR average is around 7.5%.)
• And after scoring eight times on 59 carries in 2021 (13.6% TD rate), he scored on three of 42 carries last year (7.1%).
• Samuel played six full games without RB Christian McCaffrey last season and nine with McCaffrey (including playoffs). Here are his per-game splits: 7 10-14 playoffs

• Samuel’s scoring average in nine games with McCaffrey would have ranked 29th among WRs in PPR points per game and 25th in non-PPR.

What to Expect in 2023

• Samuel admitted in June that last year’s contract negotiations contributed to his disappointing season. (He wound up signing a three-year, $71.6 million extension last July.)
• After being an obvious negative regression candidate heading into last season, Samuel should be in for some positive regression in 2023. Here’s how his 2022 efficiency stats compared to his averages over his first three NFL seasons:

• McCaffrey is back and might play an even bigger role with a full offseason to settle into HC Kyle Shanahan’s offense. Expect Samuel’s usage this year to be much closer to those “With McCaffrey” numbers above.
• Samuel’s expected points per game with McCaffrey last year would have ranked 21st among WRs in PPR and 31st in non-PPR.
• There are questions at QB in San Francisco. Brock Purdy is working back from March surgery on his throwing elbow. If he’s not ready for Week 1, it’s not even clear if Trey Lance would start over Sam Darnold, who signed a one-year deal with the ‘Niners in free agency.
• The fewer games Lance starts, the better for Samuel’s fantasy value. San Francisco would likely run significantly more with Lance under center.
• Durability remains a concern for Samuel. He’s missed 15 games through four NFL seasons with groin, foot, hamstring, ankle, and knee injuries.