What You Need to Know:

• Samuel turned in a massive 2021 season, finishing 3rd among WRs in PPR points and 2nd in non-PPR points.
• It was a tale of 2 seasons for Samuel.
  • He played a traditional WR role over San Francisco’s first 8 games, racking up 49 catches for 882 yards and 4 TDs. Those marks ranked 11th, 2nd and 12th among WRs. Samuel’s 81 targets over that stretch ranked 7th and were a huge 31.0% of the 49ers’ total. He carried 6 times for 22 yards and 1 TD over those first 8 games.
  • Samuel’s production in the passing game declined significantly over his final 8 games: 28 catches, 523 yards and 2 TDs. He saw 40 targets – a 17.9% share. But he took on a big ball-carrying role, totaling 53 carries for 343 yards and 7 TDs. Samuel played 18.3% of his snaps in the backfield over that stretch.
  • That hybrid usage continued in the playoffs, with Samuel posting a 10-154-1 receiving line and a 27-137-1 rushing line in 3 games.
• Among 89 WRs with 50+ targets last season, Samuel ranked 7th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade and 2nd in yards per route run.
• His 82.0 PFF rushing grade led the 7 WRs who carried 10+ times last season and would have ranked 11th among the 50 RBs with 100+ carries.
• Samuel reportedly requested a trade early this offseason. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported that Samuel was not happy with his RB usage last year. Samuel eventually reported to minicamp in June and looks set to play for the 49ers this season. But the situation suggests that his rushing volume will likely decline from what we saw over the 2nd half of 2021.
• Samuel ranked 14th among WRs in expected PPR points per game and 12th in expected non-PPR points per game last year.
  • He ranked 8th in a traditional WR role from Weeks 1 through 9.
  • He ranked 24th through Weeks 10 through 18 in that hybrid WR/RB role.
• Samuel’s fantasy production was ignited by huge efficiency marks:
  • His 18.2 yards per catch was a career high and led all 89 WRs with 50+ targets.
  • Samuel’s 11.6 yards per target was also a career high and tops among those 89 WRs.
  • He scored 8 times on 59 carries – a 13.6% TD rate. League-wide rushing TD rate for RBs over the past 3 seasons is 3.3%. Based on his usage, Samuel was expected to score 2.2 TDs.
• HC Kyle Shanahan returns in 2022 for his 6th season with the 49ers.
• WR Brandon Aiyuk and TE George Kittle also return. They combined for 178 targets (34.6% share) last year.
• QB Trey Lance is slated to take over as the 49ers’ starter this season.
  • He started just 1 full season at North Dakota State.
  • In 2 starts in place of QB Jimmy Garoppolo last year, Lance totaled 441 yards and 2 TDs on a 59.6% completion rate and 8.5 yards per attempt.
• The 49ers have ranked 20th or lower in pass attempts in 3 of the last 4 seasons, including a 29th-place finish last year. They ranked 30th in situation-neutral pass rate last year. Expect this to remain a run-heavy offense with Lance at the helm.
• Samuel missed 1 game last year with a groin injury. He missed 9 games in 2020 with a Jones fracture in his first and a pair of hamstring injuries. He missed 1 game in his 2019 rookie campaign with a groin injury.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Samuel is coming off a super productive and, frankly, unbelievable 2021 campaign. He put up huge receiving numbers over the 1st half of the season and huge rushing numbers over the 2nd half.

Expect his rushing work to be scaled back in 2022. And Samuel will have trouble matching last year’s efficiency. Throw in what might be an even run-heavier offense with QB Trey Lance and stiff target competition in WR Brandon Aiyuk and TE George Kittle, and Samuel will have trouble matching last year’s fantasy production. Consider him a borderline WR1.