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Deebo Samuel - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsDeebo Samuel's Basic Stats

Deebo Samuel
ADP: N/A
Bye: 9
Experience: 3 Yr(s)
Age: 27.0
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 215
40 Time: 4.48
Speed Score: 103.30
SPARQx (Rank): 118.50 (86%)
Burst Score (Rank): 127.30 (81%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.17 (58%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.16 (72%)

Deebo Samuel's Weekly Outlook

Week 21 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.5 53.9 0.3 9.5
Weekly Writeup
Samuel has been tremendous this postseason with an average of 19 PPR points per game and a team-leading 29.6% target share across 2 games. The wideout has displayed versatility out of the backfield too, securing a total of 10.9% of the 49ers' carries that could see a bump in this NFC title game should RB Elijah Mitchell (Q, groin) miss this contest. Samuel's versatility and potential for a marginally increased role if Mitchell doesn't suit up more than makes up for the fact that the Eagles defense ranks atop the list in Football Outsiders' pass defense DVOA.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Deebo Samuel's 2022 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#17 Wide Receiver

150.4 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
Not Available 63.8 892.9 5 2.2 1.5

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsDeebo Samuel's Preseason Player Analysis

View WR Fantasy Rankings »
What You Need to Know:
  • Samuel turned in a massive 2021 season, finishing 3rd among WRs in PPR points and 2nd in non-PPR points.
  • It was a tale of 2 seasons for Samuel.
    • He played a traditional WR role over San Francisco’s first 8 games, racking up 49 catches for 882 yards and 4 TDs. Those marks ranked 11th, 2nd and 12th among WRs. Samuel’s 81 targets over that stretch ranked 7th and were a huge 31.0% of the 49ers’ total. He carried 6 times for 22 yards and 1 TD over those first 8 games.
    • Samuel’s production in the passing game declined significantly over his final 8 games: 28 catches, 523 yards and 2 TDs. He saw 40 targets – a 17.9% share. But he took on a big ball-carrying role, totaling 53 carries for 343 yards and 7 TDs. Samuel played 18.3% of his snaps in the backfield over that stretch.
    • That hybrid usage continued in the playoffs, with Samuel posting a 10-154-1 receiving line and a 27-137-1 rushing line in 3 games.
  • Among 89 WRs with 50+ targets last season, Samuel ranked 7th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade and 2nd in yards per route run.
  • His 82.0 PFF rushing grade led the 7 WRs who carried 10+ times last season and would have ranked 11th among the 50 RBs with 100+ carries.
  • Samuel reportedly requested a trade early this offseason. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported that Samuel was not happy with his RB usage last year. Samuel eventually reported to minicamp in June and looks set to play for the 49ers this season. But the situation suggests that his rushing volume will likely decline from what we saw over the 2nd half of 2021.
  • Samuel ranked 14th among WRs in expected PPR points per game and 12th in expected non-PPR points per game last year.
    • He ranked 8th in a traditional WR role from Weeks 1 through 9.
    • He ranked 24th in Weeks 10 through 18 in that hybrid WR/RB role.
  • Samuel’s fantasy production was ignited by huge efficiency marks:
    • His 18.2 yards per catch was a career high and led all 89 WRs with 50+ targets.
    • Samuel’s 11.6 yards per target was also a career high and tops among those 89 WRs.
    • He scored 8 times on 59 carries – a 13.6% TD rate. League-wide rushing TD rate for RBs over the past 3 seasons is 3.3%. Based on his usage, Samuel was expected to score 2.2 TDs.
  • HC Kyle Shanahan returns in 2022 for his 6th season with the 49ers.
  • WR Brandon Aiyuk and TE George Kittle also return. They combined for 178 targets (34.6% share) last year.
  • QB Trey Lance is slated to take over as the 49ers’ starter this season.
    • He started just 1 full season at North Dakota State.
    • In 2 starts in place of QB Jimmy Garoppolo last year, Lance totaled 441 yards and 2 TDs on a 59.6% completion rate and 8.5 yards per attempt.
  • The 49ers have ranked 20th or lower in pass attempts in 3 of the last 4 seasons, including a 29th-place finish last year. They ranked 30th in situation-neutral pass rate last year. Expect this to remain a run-heavy offense with Lance at the helm.
  • Samuel missed 1 game last year with a groin injury. He missed 9 games in 2020 with a Jones fracture in his foot and a pair of hamstring injuries. He missed 1 game in his 2019 rookie campaign with a groin injury.
Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Samuel is coming off a super productive and, frankly, unbelievable 2021 campaign. He put up huge receiving numbers over the 1st half of the season and huge rushing numbers over the 2nd half.

Expect his rushing work to be scaled back in 2022. And Samuel will have trouble matching last year’s efficiency. Throw in what might be an even run-heavier offense with QB Trey Lance and stiff target competition in WR Brandon Aiyuk and TE George Kittle, and Samuel will have trouble matching last year’s fantasy production. Consider him a borderline WR1.

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Deebo Samuel, WR SF

6:57pm EST 1/27/23

Samuel practices fully on Friday, set to play vs. Eagles

49ers WR Deebo Samuel (ankle) upgraded to full practice on Friday and doesn't carry an injury designation for Sunday's NFC Championship game vs. the Eagles. Samuel has been targeted 16 times over the last 2 games with 7 carries as a runner. His high involvement makes him a quality fantasy option again this weekend despite the Eagles' defense ranking as the 10th-toughest matchup in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs. It's also worth noting that RB Elijah Mitchell (groin) is listed as questionable for this contest. Samuel could possibly pick up a couple extra carries in the event that Mitchell misses this game.

View all Deebo Samuel Shark Bites »

49ers WR Deebo Samuel (ankle) remained limited in Thursday's practice. He's still not 100% recovered from the high-ankle sprain he suffered in mid-December but is fully expected to play in Sunday's NFC Championship game vs. the Eagles. Samuel has racked up 178 receiving yards and 43 rushing yards over the past 2 weeks.

View all Deebo Samuel Shark Bites »

49ers Deebo Samuel (ankle) practiced in a limited capacity on Wednesday in advance of Sunday's NFC Championship game vs. the Eagles. HC Kyle Shanahan shared that “It’s been there for a little bit," referring to Samuel's ankle ailment, "I think he’ll be alright, but it concerned us enough to not let him go today" at practice. We'll see if the veteran is able to ramp up activity on Thursday. Check back once we learn some more information.

View all Deebo Samuel Shark Bites »

49ers WR Deebo Samuel led the team in receiving with 6 catches on 9 targets for 133 yards and 1 TD in Saturday's Wild Card win vs. the Seahawks. The crafty wideout also handled 3 carries for 22 yards on the ground in the contest. Samuel was seldom used in Week 18 after returning from a 3-game absence due to injury, so it's good to see his body hold up to a more significant workload. It's also worth noting that teammate WR Brandon Aiyuk is the only other 49ers' pass-catcher who logged more than 2 receptions.

View all Deebo Samuel Shark Bites »

49ers WR Deebo Samuel (ankle, knee) practiced fully to end the week and doesn't carry an injury tag in anticipation of Week 18 vs. the Cardinals. We'd be surprised if Samuel saw a full workload coming off a 3-week absence in the game the 49ers should control. But he's always capable of making his fantasy day with 1 big play. As such, consider the veteran a low-end WR3/flex option with some risk.

View all Deebo Samuel Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Deebo Samuel, WR SF
Dynasty MVP 136.7
Position Rank #18 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
452
736
1,124
Dynasty Write-up
Samuel enjoyed a breakout 2021, a season that included a league-leading 18.2 yards per reception. 2022 turned up a dip in production, due in part to injuries. Only 27, Samuel doesn’t project as a target hog as long as both Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle are around.
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