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Deebo Samuel - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsDeebo Samuel's Basic Stats

Deebo Samuel
ADP: 2.10
Bye: 9
Experience: 3 Yr(s)
Age: 26.7
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 215
40 Time: 4.48
Speed Score: 103.30
SPARQx (Rank): 118.50 (86%)
Burst Score (Rank): 127.30 (81%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.17 (58%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.16 (72%)

Deebo Samuel's Weekly Outlook

Week 3 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.7 63.7 0.4 12.7
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.7 54.2 0.4 10.6

Deebo Samuel's 2022 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#10 Wide Receiver

164 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
2.10 68.8 962.9 5.2 2.4 1.2

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsDeebo Samuel's Preseason Player Analysis

View WR Fantasy Rankings »
What You Need to Know:
  • Samuel turned in a massive 2021 season, finishing 3rd among WRs in PPR points and 2nd in non-PPR points.
  • It was a tale of 2 seasons for Samuel.
    • He played a traditional WR role over San Francisco’s first 8 games, racking up 49 catches for 882 yards and 4 TDs. Those marks ranked 11th, 2nd and 12th among WRs. Samuel’s 81 targets over that stretch ranked 7th and were a huge 31.0% of the 49ers’ total. He carried 6 times for 22 yards and 1 TD over those first 8 games.
    • Samuel’s production in the passing game declined significantly over his final 8 games: 28 catches, 523 yards and 2 TDs. He saw 40 targets – a 17.9% share. But he took on a big ball-carrying role, totaling 53 carries for 343 yards and 7 TDs. Samuel played 18.3% of his snaps in the backfield over that stretch.
    • That hybrid usage continued in the playoffs, with Samuel posting a 10-154-1 receiving line and a 27-137-1 rushing line in 3 games.
  • Among 89 WRs with 50+ targets last season, Samuel ranked 7th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade and 2nd in yards per route run.
  • His 82.0 PFF rushing grade led the 7 WRs who carried 10+ times last season and would have ranked 11th among the 50 RBs with 100+ carries.
  • Samuel reportedly requested a trade early this offseason. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported that Samuel was not happy with his RB usage last year. Samuel eventually reported to minicamp in June and looks set to play for the 49ers this season. But the situation suggests that his rushing volume will likely decline from what we saw over the 2nd half of 2021.
  • Samuel ranked 14th among WRs in expected PPR points per game and 12th in expected non-PPR points per game last year.
    • He ranked 8th in a traditional WR role from Weeks 1 through 9.
    • He ranked 24th in Weeks 10 through 18 in that hybrid WR/RB role.
  • Samuel’s fantasy production was ignited by huge efficiency marks:
    • His 18.2 yards per catch was a career high and led all 89 WRs with 50+ targets.
    • Samuel’s 11.6 yards per target was also a career high and tops among those 89 WRs.
    • He scored 8 times on 59 carries – a 13.6% TD rate. League-wide rushing TD rate for RBs over the past 3 seasons is 3.3%. Based on his usage, Samuel was expected to score 2.2 TDs.
  • HC Kyle Shanahan returns in 2022 for his 6th season with the 49ers.
  • WR Brandon Aiyuk and TE George Kittle also return. They combined for 178 targets (34.6% share) last year.
  • QB Trey Lance is slated to take over as the 49ers’ starter this season.
    • He started just 1 full season at North Dakota State.
    • In 2 starts in place of QB Jimmy Garoppolo last year, Lance totaled 441 yards and 2 TDs on a 59.6% completion rate and 8.5 yards per attempt.
  • The 49ers have ranked 20th or lower in pass attempts in 3 of the last 4 seasons, including a 29th-place finish last year. They ranked 30th in situation-neutral pass rate last year. Expect this to remain a run-heavy offense with Lance at the helm.
  • Samuel missed 1 game last year with a groin injury. He missed 9 games in 2020 with a Jones fracture in his foot and a pair of hamstring injuries. He missed 1 game in his 2019 rookie campaign with a groin injury.
Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Samuel is coming off a super productive and, frankly, unbelievable 2021 campaign. He put up huge receiving numbers over the 1st half of the season and huge rushing numbers over the 2nd half.

Expect his rushing work to be scaled back in 2022. And Samuel will have trouble matching last year’s efficiency. Throw in what might be an even run-heavier offense with QB Trey Lance and stiff target competition in WR Brandon Aiyuk and TE George Kittle, and Samuel will have trouble matching last year’s fantasy production. Consider him a borderline WR1.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Trey Lance, QB SF

7:22pm EDT 9/18/22

Lance needs surgery, "likely" done for the season

ESPN's Adam Schefter reports 49ers QB Trey Lance suffered a "significant" right ankle injury in the Week 2 win over the Seahawks. Lance is expected to need surgery that will "likely" end his season. You can hang on to him on fantasy rosters until we get official confirmation that Lance's season is over, which figures to come tomorrow. San Francisco will turn back to QB Jimmy Garoppolo, which will mean a significant shift in the offense. The 49ers' pass rate will climb, and there will be more carries to go around since Garoppolo won't be taking many.

View all Trey Lance Shark Bites »

49ers TE George Kittle (groin) remained sidelined on Thursday. He's looking like a long shot to play vs. the Seahawks this weekend. That's bad news for QB Trey Lance but good news for Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk's volume.

View all George Kittle Shark Bites »

Niners WR Deebo Samuel fulfilled the Deebo Samuel role in Sunday's opening loss to the Bears. He drew a team-high 8 targets but caught just 2 for 14 yards in rain-drenched conditions. Samuel added 52 yards and a TD on 8 carries, trailing only QB Trey Lance among 49ers in rushing yards. We certainly can't count on rushing scores every week for Samuel, but the target count to go with the rushing work is encouraging. That's what lacked in the 2nd half of last year, when he was getting more handoffs than passing looks. Brandon Aiyuk drew just 2 target against the Bears, catching both for 40 yards. WR Jauan Jennings posted team highs of 4 receptions and 62 yards on 6 targets.

View all Deebo Samuel Shark Bites »

Chicago has been hit with heavy rains this morning. It looks like the worst of it will be gone by kickoff of 49ers-Bears, but there will be lingering showers -- and a wet field. The forecast also calls for 15-20 mph winds. Less than ideal scoring conditions, although this looked like a low-scoring game anyways. Expect lots of running from both teams.

View all Trey Lance Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Deebo Samuel, WR SF
Dynasty MVP 139.9
Position Rank #14 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
493
802
951
Dynasty Write-up
Samuel enjoyed a breakout age-25 season that included leading the league with 18.2 yards per reception. The biggest concern for him going forward, however, might be his mid-season role shift. HC Kyle Shanahan has indicated he intends to keep working Samuel at both wideout and RB. From Week 10 (his 1st game with more than 2 carries) through the playoffs, Samuel averaged just 4.9 targets per contests -- compared with 7.3 rushes. That's not a recipe for sustained WR production and just might wear Samuel down more quickly. That's not to say you should panic-sell Samuel this offseason. But it's a factor to keep in mind for your valuation.
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