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Deebo Samuel - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Deebo Samuel
SF

WR SF

#43 Wide Receiver

117 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 6
Experience: 2 Yr(s)
Age: 25
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 214
40 Time: 4.48

Weekly Outlook

Week 6 Projections

This player does not have a weekly prediction

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.6 69 0.4 9.8
Week 5
Despite seeing a team high 9 targets, more than double any other teammate, Samuel caught just 3 passes for 58 yards. He has seen 8+ targets in every game, including 3 games with double-digit targets.

This week's production (or lack thereof) has much more to do with QB Trey Lance than Deebo himself. This was the first game where Samuel had less than 5 catches, getting at least 50 yards in every game. He did find the endzone on his only rush attempt, getting 13 yards in the process. This helped to salvage his fantasy day for those that started him.

The good sign is the volume is still going the WR’s way. Lance will have to be better and give his WR more catchable targets. Samuel was producing monster numbers before the QB switch was made. If San Francisco goes back to Jimmy Garoppolo it may be worse for the 49ers long term but better for Samuel's immediate fantasy value.

The bye week will bring much of the information on this entire situation going forward.
Week 4
Samuel continued to be the bright spot among the 49ers’ receiving options, and he was able to produce with both Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance at QB. Of course, his big play came with Lance at QB, when the Seattle defense busted a coverage, leaving Samuel wide open down the sideline where Lance easily connected with him on a 76-yard TD. As has been the case all year, he continued to earn significant yardage after the catch, as he finished the game with nearly 20 yards per catch.

With Brandon Aiyuk not commanding targets and George Kittle being used more as a blocker than a receiver in most games, it looks as if Samuel is in line to be a WR2 with massive weekly upside. He’s been schemed open frequently, and he’s also been excellent in his ability to gain yardage after the catch. He can turn a short catch into a long TD at any time.
Week 3
Samuel has to be one of the toughest guys in the league. He shows every week he is willing to go up and get the ball no matter who is waiting to light him up.

Samuel led the 49ers in targets against the Packers with 10, for a 25% target share. His 5 catches for 52 yards marked his lowest output in each category so far this season.

Samuel and the 49ers WRs have an exciting matchup on deck with the Seahawks, who have allowed WRs to eclipse 115 yards each of the past 2 weeks. Samuel should have an opportunity to feast on this defensive backfield and you can fire him up confidently as a WR2 option. We have him ranked at WR23 this week.
Week 2
After dominating receiving work to a shocking degree in Week 1, Samuel again operated as the clear lead target for the 49ers in Sunday’s win at Philadelphia.

His 8 targets led all players for the game, with RB JaMycal Hasty (5) and TE George Kittle (4) next among Niners. Samuel’s 15.5 yards per catch on 6 receptions, though, belie a shortening of his average target depth. Samuel consumed 40 of his 93 yards for the game on a single intermediate catch-and-run near the end of the 2nd quarter.

Samuel’s usage -- including 2 carries vs. Philly -- through 2 weeks is easily the biggest mark in his favor and the reason to start him without question until something changes significantly. San Francisco looks like a poor bet for consistent downfield passing, though, will cut into the upside of Samuel’s targets. That will start to matter only if his target share comes down.

For now, be happy with the return on your investment. We’d be willing, though, to field offers from WR-hungry teams in your league.
Week 1
Even though Jimmy Garoppolo only needed to throw 25 passes, Samuel saw almost half of those passes, leading to the best game of his young career. The highlight of his day was when he made an adjustment on a severely underthrown pass before outrunning the Detroit defense for a 79-yard TD. Although Brandon Aiyuk was active and played 47% of the snaps, he was basically a decoy before spending much of the game on the bench in this very winnable game, which may have also helped to boost Samuel’s massive target share.

Although there’s no denying that Samuel’s an excellent player, the fact is that this is often a low-volume passing attack, so to think Samuel will see double-digit targets regularly may be overly optimistic. And it’s important to remember that George Kittle (and possibly Aiyuk) will see his share of targets as well. Certainly, Samuel’s being counted on to be at least a WR3 by fantasy managers, but there will be weeks where the volume just isn’t there.

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Injuries have been a problem for Samuel throughout his football career.
    • He suffered multiple hamstring injuries and a broken leg in 4 years at South Carolina.
    • He missed 1 game with another hamstring injury as a rookie in 2019.
    • Samuel suffered a Jones fracture in his left foot last June and missed the first 3 games of the season. Then he injured his hamstring in Week 7, missed 3 games, returned to play 2 full games before suffering another hamstring injury and missing the final 3 games.
  • But he’s been productive when healthy.
  • Samuel posted a 57-802-3 receiving line in 15 games as a rookie, adding 159 yards and 3 scores on the ground.
    • He finished 31st among WRs in PPR points and 26th in non-PPR.
    • Among 79 WRs with 50+ targets, he ranked 15th in yards per route run and 37th in Pro Football Focus’ receiving grades.
  • Samuel was limited or left early in 2 of his 7 games last year. In the other 5, he averaged 8.2 targets, 6 catches, 71.2 yards and .2 TDs.
    • His scoring averages in those games would have ranked 25th among WRs in PPR points per game and 36th in non-PPR.
    • Among 99 WRs with 40+ targets last year, Samuel ranked 9th in yards per route run and 19th in PFF receiving grade.
  • Samuel beat teammate Brandon Aiyuk in both yards per route run and PFF receiving grade.
  • In 4 healthy games together, Samuel out-targeted Aiyuk 28 to 25.
  • Here’s where the 49ers have ranked in pass rate and pass attempts in 4 seasons under HC Kyle Shanahan:
    • 2017 - 7th and 2nd
    • 2018 - 20th and 20th
    • 2019 - 31st and 29th
    • 2020 - 17th and 16th
  • Rookie QB Trey Lance -- the 3rd overall pick of the draft -- figures to take over as San Francisco’s starter at some point this season. Considering his inexperience and high-end rushing ability, the 49ers figure to lean even more toward the run with Lance under center.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Samuel’s injuries -- especially to his hamstring -- are a legitimate worry. Volume is also a concern in 2021 with TE George Kittle back, WR Brandon Aiyuk a candidate to take a step forward in his 2nd season and the ‘Niners likely to be a run-leaning offense.

But Samuel has been super efficient through 2 NFL seasons and scored as a WR3 in both. Generally available outside of WR3 territory in fantasy drafts, he should return solid value as long as he’s on the field.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

49ers WR Deebo Samuel played 19 snaps in Sunday's preseason game vs. the Chargers, finishing with 1 catch on 2 targets for 9 yards. He reportedly got an MRI for a tight glute last week -- but it's clearly not an issue at this point.

View all Deebo Samuel Shark Bites »

Niners WR Deebo Samuel left Friday's practice early and is getting an MRI. "He had a tight glute today, so he pulled himself out of practice," HC Kyle Shanahan said afterward, per 49erswebzone.com. We'll see whether there's anything to worry about here.

View all Deebo Samuel Shark Bites »

49ers WR Deebo Samuel has had a healthy offseason and is in "great shape," according to The Athletic's David Lombardi. "It’s been the talk of camp around the 49ers’ building," Lombardi adds. "He’s lighter, faster and has already expressed eagerness to run more deep routes." Durability has been a problem for Samuel dating back to his South Carolina days. But he's been productive when healthy through 2 NFL seasons. Barring injury, he'll likely finish closer in fantasy points to WR Brandon Aiyuk than current ADP suggests.

View all Deebo Samuel Shark Bites »

Niners HC Kyle Shanahan announced Tuesday that WR Deebo Samuel will miss the rest of the season with his hamstring injury. That clears the way for Brandon Aiyuk to remain the #1 WR over the next 2 weeks, with Kendrick Bourne and Richie James as #2 and #3.

View all Deebo Samuel Shark Bites »

49ers WR Deebo Samuel (hamstring) is out for Sunday’s game against the Cowboys. That leaves Brandon Aiyuk as the #1 WR and a strong target bet. Kendrick Bourne figures to operate as the #2 WR but would be a desperation fantasy play.

View all Deebo Samuel Shark Bites »

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