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Deebo Samuel - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsDeebo Samuel's Basic Stats

Deebo Samuel
ADP: 2.2
Bye: 9
Experience: 3 Yr(s)
Age: 26.4
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 215
40 Time: 4.48
Speed Score: 103.30
SPARQx (Rank): 118.50 (86%)
Burst Score (Rank): 127.30 (81%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.17 (58%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.16 (72%)

Deebo Samuel's 2022 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#10 Wide Receiver

164 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
2.2 68.8 962.9 5.2 2.4 1.2

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsDeebo Samuel's Preseason Player Analysis

View WR Fantasy Rankings »
What You Need to Know:
  • Samuel turned in a massive 2021 season, finishing 3rd among WRs in PPR points and 2nd in non-PPR points.
  • It was a tale of 2 seasons for Samuel.
    • He played a traditional WR role over San Francisco’s first 8 games, racking up 49 catches for 882 yards and 4 TDs. Those marks ranked 11th, 2nd and 12th among WRs. Samuel’s 81 targets over that stretch ranked 7th and were a huge 31.0% of the 49ers’ total. He carried 6 times for 22 yards and 1 TD over those first 8 games.
    • Samuel’s production in the passing game declined significantly over his final 8 games: 28 catches, 523 yards and 2 TDs. He saw 40 targets – a 17.9% share. But he took on a big ball-carrying role, totaling 53 carries for 343 yards and 7 TDs. Samuel played 18.3% of his snaps in the backfield over that stretch.
    • That hybrid usage continued in the playoffs, with Samuel posting a 10-154-1 receiving line and a 27-137-1 rushing line in 3 games.
  • Among 89 WRs with 50+ targets last season, Samuel ranked 7th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade and 2nd in yards per route run.
  • His 82.0 PFF rushing grade led the 7 WRs who carried 10+ times last season and would have ranked 11th among the 50 RBs with 100+ carries.
  • Samuel reportedly requested a trade early this offseason. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported that Samuel was not happy with his RB usage last year. Samuel eventually reported to minicamp in June and looks set to play for the 49ers this season. But the situation suggests that his rushing volume will likely decline from what we saw over the 2nd half of 2021.
  • Samuel ranked 14th among WRs in expected PPR points per game and 12th in expected non-PPR points per game last year.
    • He ranked 8th in a traditional WR role from Weeks 1 through 9.
    • He ranked 24th through Weeks 10 through 18 in that hybrid WR/RB role.
  • Samuel’s fantasy production was ignited by huge efficiency marks:
    • His 18.2 yards per catch was a career high and led all 89 WRs with 50+ targets.
    • Samuel’s 11.6 yards per target was also a career high and tops among those 89 WRs.
    • He scored 8 times on 59 carries – a 13.6% TD rate. League-wide rushing TD rate for RBs over the past 3 seasons is 3.3%. Based on his usage, Samuel was expected to score 2.2 TDs.
  • HC Kyle Shanahan returns in 2022 for his 6th season with the 49ers.
  • WR Brandon Aiyuk and TE George Kittle also return. They combined for 178 targets (34.6% share) last year.
  • QB Trey Lance is slated to take over as the 49ers’ starter this season.
    • He started just 1 full season at North Dakota State.
    • In 2 starts in place of QB Jimmy Garoppolo last year, Lance totaled 441 yards and 2 TDs on a 59.6% completion rate and 8.5 yards per attempt.
  • The 49ers have ranked 20th or lower in pass attempts in 3 of the last 4 seasons, including a 29th-place finish last year. They ranked 30th in situation-neutral pass rate last year. Expect this to remain a run-heavy offense with Lance at the helm.
  • Samuel missed 1 game last year with a groin injury. He missed 9 games in 2020 with a Jones fracture in his first and a pair of hamstring injuries. He missed 1 game in his 2019 rookie campaign with a groin injury.
Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Samuel is coming off a super productive and, frankly, unbelievable 2021 campaign. He put up huge receiving numbers over the 1st half of the season and huge rushing numbers over the 2nd half.

Expect his rushing work to be scaled back in 2022. And Samuel will have trouble matching last year’s efficiency. Throw in what might be an even run-heavier offense with QB Trey Lance and stiff target competition in WR Brandon Aiyuk and TE George Kittle, and Samuel will have trouble matching last year’s fantasy production. Consider him a borderline WR1.

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Deebo Samuel, WR SF

9:03am EDT 6/7/22

Samuel reporting for minicamp

49ers WR Deebo Samuel is expected to report for minicamp on Tuesday, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Samuel reportedly requested a trade earlier this offseason, unhappy with his RB usage last year. But it looks like the 2 sides have ironed things out at least for now. We'll continue to monitor the situation, but Samuel seems likely to be on the field for the 49ers come Week 1.

View all Deebo Samuel Shark Bites »

Speaking at an event on Wednesday night, 49ers GM John Lynch confirmed that WR Deebo Samuel will remain on the team. “We haven't traded him, and I'd be a fool to trade him. So yes, Deebo will be part of the 49ers this season,” Lynch said. Now we’ll see if Samuel, 26, accepts a high-dollar extension from the 49ers this summer.

View all Deebo Samuel Shark Bites »

Referencing a conversation with 49er Deebo Samuel, NFL insider Jeff Darlington said the star WR has requested a trade. Samuel didn’t reveal any specific reason, but we get the message. If he does in fact leave San Francisco, the 49ers would be left with guys like Jauan Jennings, KeeSean Johnson and Ray-Ray McCloud behind Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. Currently, the 49ers don't pick until 61st overall in this month's draft, although they do have a pair of 3rd-rounders. As for Deebo, any suitor will need to pay him top dollar, as the 26-year-old is entering a contract year. Stay tuned.

UPDATE: NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports that Deebo is frustrated over his RB usage. Rapoport added that Deebo hasn't "engaged" with the 49ers, despite the team's attempts to make him a lucrative long-term deal.

View all Deebo Samuel Shark Bites »

ESPN's Adam Schefter suggested that WR Deebo Samuel wants out of San Francisco. We reported on Tuesday that Samuel was skipping the team's offseason program as he seeks a new contract. But Schefter believes that Samuel isn't interested in getting that new deal from the 49ers. “San Francisco would pay Deebo Samuel today, tomorrow, the next day. It’s not hard to figure out what the contract would look like,” Schefter said on ESPN's NFL Live. “We’ve seen some of the top numbers in the league. This, I think right now, is Deebo Samuel not wanting to get a deal done. It’s not San Francisco not willing to do the deal, the 49ers are ready. Deebo Samuel is the one who has put a halt to everything for right now.” It's unclear what's caused this rift -- especially since Samuel is coming off a career-best season. We'll see where the situation goes from here. Samuel is overvalued in early best-ball drafts, although a move out of run-heavy San Francisco might actually help his fantasy stock.

View all Deebo Samuel Shark Bites »

ESPN's Adam Schefter hears that WRs Deebo Samuel, A.J. Brown and Terry McLaurin are not expected to participate in on-field work in their teams' offseason programs as they look for new contracts. McLaurin at least plans to report for the start of the workouts, per Schefter. All 3 guys have 1 year remaining on their rookie contracts and are looking to get paid after seeing Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs get big deals this offseason. We'll certainly keep a close eye on these situations -- but we're not moving Samuel, Brown or McLaurin in our 2022 WR rankings right now.

View all Deebo Samuel Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Deebo Samuel, WR SF
Dynasty MVP 139.9
Position Rank #17 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
493
802
951
Dynasty Write-up
Samuel enjoyed a breakout age-25 season that included leading the league with 18.2 yards per reception. The biggest concern for him going forward, however, might be his mid-season role shift. HC Kyle Shanahan has indicated he intends to keep working Samuel at both wideout and RB. From Week 10 (his 1st game with more than 2 carries) through the playoffs, Samuel averaged just 4.9 targets per contests -- compared with 7.3 rushes. That's not a recipe for sustained WR production and just might wear Samuel down more quickly. That's not to say you should panic-sell Samuel this offseason. But it's a factor to keep in mind for your valuation.
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