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Deebo Samuel - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Deebo Samuel
SF

WR SF

#43 Wide Receiver

117 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 6
Experience: 2 Yr(s)
Age: 26
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 214
40 Time: 4.48

Weekly Outlook

3d Projection

Med Floor

8.3

DS Projection

12.5

Consensus

38 other sites
12

Low Ceiling

15.6

Rest of
Season

Week 21 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
3.2 46.1 0.2 12.5
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Week 14
Samuel didn’t crush you in Week 14, but he did show why the recent shift to RB-WR hybrid isn’t great for his fantasy value.

Samuel gained 37 yards on 8 carries, making him San Francisco’s 2nd most active ball-carrier, behind Jeff Wilson Jr. His 27-yard score early in the 2nd quarter accounted for most of that. And Samuel scored a decent 12.9 PPR points for the game.

That was good for just 38th among WRs for the week, though. Blame his mere 1 target.

That makes 3 straight games in which Samuel has logged more carries than targets, with 22 total rushes vs. just 7 looks over that span.

Samuel has still run a route on 85.5% of Jimmy Garoppolo’s dropbacks over his past 2 full outings. So we’d bet on his target share rebounding. He did, however, trailing Brandon Aiyuk in routes each of those 2 games. So we have to downgrade Samuel right now vs. his previous standing – at least a little. Week 7 was the last time Samuel matched or exceeded Samuel’s route total.

A Week 15 matchup with the Falcons’ weak pass defense presents a nice “get right” spot.
Week 12
The bad news was that Samuel left this game late with a groin injury, though he was on the sideline celebrating with his teammates in the 4th quarter, so hopefully, his injury is minor. It was also disappointing that he caught just 1 of 4 targets. Fortunately, Samuel continued to take advantage of his opportunities as a runner, and he was dominant on his 6 carries. He was either schemed into space, and when he wasn’t he was breaking tackles to pile up big yardage. He showed great burst, as he leaped across the goal line on a run he took down the sideline for a TD.

HC Kyle Shanahan has already said the WR will miss some time. When Samuel returns, the way the 49ers use him ensures that he’ll be matchup proof. Whether he dominates on the ground, where he’s piled up 181 yards and 4 TDs over the last 3 games, or as a receiver, where he’s posted at least 90 yards in 6 games, he should be a top-15 fantasy player the rest of the way. In the fantasy playoffs, he has 3 great matchups against the Falcons, Titans, and Texans.
Week 11
Samuel has carved out a unique role in this offense for the 49ers. On a week where Samuel only caught 1 pass for 15 yards, he was still a dominate force for fantasy. The 49ers used Samuel in the ground game as he rushed for 79 yards and 1 TD. The 49ers have used Samuel as a Swiss army knife and now with this newfound rushing production he offers a much higher floor. Even in a week where there is low pass volume like the 49ers had vs. Jacksonville, Samuel’s ability to get 5-8 carriers should help him fantasy relevant. More importantly Samuel gets work on the ground near the red zone which helped him find the end zone in Week 11.
This week the 49ers take on the Vikings who have allowed the 4th most points to WRs this season. Obviously, Samuel is a lock and loaded starter, but with his supporting cast around him getting stronger his target count should be monitored in Week 12. If we see this trend continues, Samuel could be a sell high if your trade deadline hasn’t passed.
Week 10
Samuel was the best player on the field in Monday night’s win over the Rams.

He was surprisingly a big part of San Francisco’s game plan on the ground, taking a career-high 5 carries for 36 yards, highlighted by an 8-yard score off left tackle in the 2nd quarter.

Samuel was also a beast in the passing game, hauling in all 5 of his targets for 97 yards and a TD. He consistently picked up extra yards after the catch, including on a 15ish-yard catch over the middle that he took for a 40-yard score to seal the win in the 4th quarter.

Samuel is in the midst of a remarkable season. His 18.1 yards per catch and 11.4 yards per target are both easily career highs. And he’s already set personal bests with 979 receiving yards and 5 TDs.

It’s tough to imagine Samuel maintaining this level of efficiency. But he can decline a bit and still be a WR1 the rest of the way.
Week 9
Samuel caught 5 of 9 targets for 63 yards in the 49ers' Week 9 loss to the Cardinals.
Samuel was finally slowed down this week as he came in to the week as the overall WR3, picking up huge chunks of yards all season.
He had another long reception on a screen pass this week but was ultimately out-produced by teammates George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk.
Samuel should be viewed as a WR1/WR2 and should continue to smash rest of season.
Week 8
Samuel's special season continued on Sunday. He caught 6 of his team-high 9 targets for 171 yards. This was the 3rd time this season that Samuel produced more than 150 receiving yards. This was the 2nd straight game where he didn't see a carry after seeing at least 1 in 4 straight games.

Going forward, there is little reason to doubt Samuel no matter who is under center. He has been a target machine thus far, seeing 8 or more targets in every game with 4 games with 10+ targets.
Week 7
In a game that Jimmy Garoppolo threw for just 181 yards on just 18 completions, Samuel was the only receiver on the team to have any tangible production. Samuel was able to find the soft spots in the Colts zone to give his QB some easy throws, but he also was able to use his physicality to haul in a couple of contested catches. He also caught the only TD through the air the team had in a losing effort.

With TDs in each of his last 3 games and a few different games with at least 100 yards, Samuel is looking like a player who can be a WR1 in any given week. Although he’s not seeing the rushing attempts that he’s had in the past couple years, he’s emerged as both a reliable and explosive player, and it’ll be tough to rank him outside the top-20 WRs in any week.
Week 5
Despite seeing a team high 9 targets, more than double any other teammate, Samuel caught just 3 passes for 58 yards. He has seen 8+ targets in every game, including 3 games with double-digit targets.

This week's production (or lack thereof) has much more to do with QB Trey Lance than Deebo himself. This was the first game where Samuel had less than 5 catches, getting at least 50 yards in every game. He did find the endzone on his only rush attempt, getting 13 yards in the process. This helped to salvage his fantasy day for those that started him.

The good sign is the volume is still going the WR’s way. Lance will have to be better and give his WR more catchable targets. Samuel was producing monster numbers before the QB switch was made. If San Francisco goes back to Jimmy Garoppolo it may be worse for the 49ers long term but better for Samuel's immediate fantasy value.

The bye week will bring much of the information on this entire situation going forward.
Week 4
Samuel continued to be the bright spot among the 49ers’ receiving options, and he was able to produce with both Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance at QB. Of course, his big play came with Lance at QB, when the Seattle defense busted a coverage, leaving Samuel wide open down the sideline where Lance easily connected with him on a 76-yard TD. As has been the case all year, he continued to earn significant yardage after the catch, as he finished the game with nearly 20 yards per catch.

With Brandon Aiyuk not commanding targets and George Kittle being used more as a blocker than a receiver in most games, it looks as if Samuel is in line to be a WR2 with massive weekly upside. He’s been schemed open frequently, and he’s also been excellent in his ability to gain yardage after the catch. He can turn a short catch into a long TD at any time.
Week 3
Samuel has to be one of the toughest guys in the league. He shows every week he is willing to go up and get the ball no matter who is waiting to light him up.

Samuel led the 49ers in targets against the Packers with 10, for a 25% target share. His 5 catches for 52 yards marked his lowest output in each category so far this season.

Samuel and the 49ers WRs have an exciting matchup on deck with the Seahawks, who have allowed WRs to eclipse 115 yards each of the past 2 weeks. Samuel should have an opportunity to feast on this defensive backfield and you can fire him up confidently as a WR2 option. We have him ranked at WR23 this week.
Week 2
After dominating receiving work to a shocking degree in Week 1, Samuel again operated as the clear lead target for the 49ers in Sunday’s win at Philadelphia.

His 8 targets led all players for the game, with RB JaMycal Hasty (5) and TE George Kittle (4) next among Niners. Samuel’s 15.5 yards per catch on 6 receptions, though, belie a shortening of his average target depth. Samuel consumed 40 of his 93 yards for the game on a single intermediate catch-and-run near the end of the 2nd quarter.

Samuel’s usage -- including 2 carries vs. Philly -- through 2 weeks is easily the biggest mark in his favor and the reason to start him without question until something changes significantly. San Francisco looks like a poor bet for consistent downfield passing, though, will cut into the upside of Samuel’s targets. That will start to matter only if his target share comes down.

For now, be happy with the return on your investment. We’d be willing, though, to field offers from WR-hungry teams in your league.
Week 1
Even though Jimmy Garoppolo only needed to throw 25 passes, Samuel saw almost half of those passes, leading to the best game of his young career. The highlight of his day was when he made an adjustment on a severely underthrown pass before outrunning the Detroit defense for a 79-yard TD. Although Brandon Aiyuk was active and played 47% of the snaps, he was basically a decoy before spending much of the game on the bench in this very winnable game, which may have also helped to boost Samuel’s massive target share.

Although there’s no denying that Samuel’s an excellent player, the fact is that this is often a low-volume passing attack, so to think Samuel will see double-digit targets regularly may be overly optimistic. And it’s important to remember that George Kittle (and possibly Aiyuk) will see his share of targets as well. Certainly, Samuel’s being counted on to be at least a WR3 by fantasy managers, but there will be weeks where the volume just isn’t there.

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Injuries have been a problem for Samuel throughout his football career.
    • He suffered multiple hamstring injuries and a broken leg in 4 years at South Carolina.
    • He missed 1 game with another hamstring injury as a rookie in 2019.
    • Samuel suffered a Jones fracture in his left foot last June and missed the first 3 games of the season. Then he injured his hamstring in Week 7, missed 3 games, returned to play 2 full games before suffering another hamstring injury and missing the final 3 games.
  • But he’s been productive when healthy.
  • Samuel posted a 57-802-3 receiving line in 15 games as a rookie, adding 159 yards and 3 scores on the ground.
    • He finished 31st among WRs in PPR points and 26th in non-PPR.
    • Among 79 WRs with 50+ targets, he ranked 15th in yards per route run and 37th in Pro Football Focus’ receiving grades.
  • Samuel was limited or left early in 2 of his 7 games last year. In the other 5, he averaged 8.2 targets, 6 catches, 71.2 yards and .2 TDs.
    • His scoring averages in those games would have ranked 25th among WRs in PPR points per game and 36th in non-PPR.
    • Among 99 WRs with 40+ targets last year, Samuel ranked 9th in yards per route run and 19th in PFF receiving grade.
  • Samuel beat teammate Brandon Aiyuk in both yards per route run and PFF receiving grade.
  • In 4 healthy games together, Samuel out-targeted Aiyuk 28 to 25.
  • Here’s where the 49ers have ranked in pass rate and pass attempts in 4 seasons under HC Kyle Shanahan:
    • 2017 - 7th and 2nd
    • 2018 - 20th and 20th
    • 2019 - 31st and 29th
    • 2020 - 17th and 16th
  • Rookie QB Trey Lance -- the 3rd overall pick of the draft -- figures to take over as San Francisco’s starter at some point this season. Considering his inexperience and high-end rushing ability, the 49ers figure to lean even more toward the run with Lance under center.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Samuel’s injuries -- especially to his hamstring -- are a legitimate worry. Volume is also a concern in 2021 with TE George Kittle back, WR Brandon Aiyuk a candidate to take a step forward in his 2nd season and the ‘Niners likely to be a run-leaning offense.

But Samuel has been super efficient through 2 NFL seasons and scored as a WR3 in both. Generally available outside of WR3 territory in fantasy drafts, he should return solid value as long as he’s on the field.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

49ers WR Deebo Samuel is not listed on the injury report for Sunday's NFC Championship. He hobbled off the field late in last weekend's win over the Packers but will be ready to play vs. the Rams.

View all Deebo Samuel Shark Bites »

49ers WR Deebo Samuel hobbled off the field after his final touch in Saturday night's win over the Packers, but it sounds like he'll be fine for the NFC Championship. “Deebo took a helmet to the side of his knee/leg on that last play, so he’s sore today, but we expect to see him on the practice field this week," HC Kyle Shanahan said Monday. We'll track Samuel's practice participation this week.

View all Deebo Samuel Shark Bites »

49ers WR Deebo Samuel (groin) is active for today’s game vs. the Bengals. He only got in a limited practice on Friday after missing last week’s game, so he obviously comes with elevated risk in fantasy lineups. But we also haven’t heard anything about Samuel being limited today. There’s still WR1 upside here.

View all Deebo Samuel Shark Bites »

49ers WR Deebo Samuel (groin) "will play" vs. the Bengals this afternoon, ESPN's Adam Schefter reports. Schefter notably went with "will play," rather than "expected to play," so we feel confident that Samuel will be active later this afternoon. He still carries added risk after getting in just a limited practice on Friday with the groin injury. But Samuel would be tough to keep on fantasy benches considering how productive he's been all season.

View all Deebo Samuel Shark Bites »

49ers WR Deebo Samuel (groin) is listed as questionable for this weekend’s game vs. the Bengals. He returned to a limited practice on Friday after missing the first 2 workouts of the week. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport said Friday night that Samuel has “a chance” to play on Sunday. Stay tuned to Shark Bites for further updates.

View all Deebo Samuel Shark Bites »

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