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Deebo Samuel - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsDeebo Samuel's Basic Stats

Deebo Samuel
ADP: 3.9
Bye: 9
Experience: 4 Yr(s)
Age: 27.7
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 215
40 Time: 4.48
Speed Score: 103.30
SPARQx (Rank): 118.50 (86%)
Burst Score (Rank): 127.30 (81%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.17 (58%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.16 (72%)

Deebo Samuel's Weekly Outlook

Week 3 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
5 61.8 0.4 10.9
Weekly Writeup
Samuel has been busy so far, racking up 16 targets and seven carries through two weeks. He shouldn't have any trouble with the Giants secondary on Thursday night.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.5 61.9 0.4 10.6

Deebo Samuel's 2023 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#10 Wide Receiver

154.7 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
3.9 64.8 880.8 4.9 2.2 1

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsDeebo Samuel's Preseason Player Analysis

View WR Fantasy Rankings »
Bottom Line

Samuel was a major fantasy disappointment last year.

He missed four games, saw his efficiency tank, and lost a little work after RB Christian McCaffrey arrived.

Durability and McCaffrey remain problems heading into 2023. But Samuel is a good bet to rebound in efficiency metrics such as yards per target and TD rate.

And he’ll come much cheaper in fantasy drafts this summer.


What We Learned Last Year
  • Samuel tallied 56 catches for 632 yards and two TDs in 13 games last year. He added another 232 yards and three TDs on 42 carries.
  • Samuel missed Week 8 with a hamstring injury and Weeks 15 through 17 with MCL and ankle sprains. He was also limited in the regular-season finale, with the 49ers having little to play for.
  • His scoring average in the other 12 games would have ranked 21st among WRs in PPR points per game and 18th in non-PPR.
  • It was a huge drop in production from 2021, when Samuel finished third at his position in PPR points per game and second in non-PPR.
  • Samuel set career highs in 2021 with 11.6 yards per target and 2.93 yards per route run … then set career lows last year with 6.7 yards per target and 1.85 yards per route.
  • His receiving TD rate also dropped from 7.8% to 3.6%. (League-wide WR average is around 7.5%.)
  • And after scoring eight times on 59 carries in 2021 (13.6% TD rate), he scored on three of 42 carries last year (7.1%).
  • Samuel played six full games without RB Christian McCaffrey last season and nine with McCaffrey (including playoffs). Here are his per-game splits: 7 10-14 playoffs

  • Samuel’s scoring average in nine games with McCaffrey would have ranked 29th among WRs in PPR points per game and 25th in non-PPR.

What to Expect in 2023
  • Samuel admitted in June that last year’s contract negotiations contributed to his disappointing season. (He wound up signing a three-year, $71.6 million extension last July.)
  • After being an obvious negative regression candidate heading into last season, Samuel should be in for some positive regression in 2023. Here’s how his 2022 efficiency stats compared to his averages over his first three NFL seasons:

  • McCaffrey is back and might play an even bigger role with a full offseason to settle into HC Kyle Shanahan’s offense. Expect Samuel’s usage this year to be much closer to those “With McCaffrey” numbers above.
  • Samuel’s expected points per game with McCaffrey last year would have ranked 21st among WRs in PPR and 31st in non-PPR.
  • There are questions at QB in San Francisco. Brock Purdy is working back from March surgery on his throwing elbow. If he’s not ready for Week 1, it’s not even clear if Trey Lance would start over Sam Darnold, who signed a one-year deal with the ‘Niners in free agency.
  • The fewer games Lance starts, the better for Samuel’s fantasy value. San Francisco would likely run significantly more with Lance under center.
  • Durability remains a concern for Samuel. He’s missed 15 games through four NFL seasons with groin, foot, hamstring, ankle, and knee injuries.

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Deebo Samuel, WR SF

10 hours ago

Deebo Samuel "day-to-day" with rib injury

49ers WR Deebo Samuel is "day-to-day" with a rib injury suffered in Thursday night's game vs. the Giants, HC Kyle Shanahan said. Samuel returned after suffering the injury, scoring a 29-yard TD in the fourth quarter. He should be fine for Week 4, especially with the extra few days to rest up.

View all Deebo Samuel Shark Bites »

With WR Brandon Aiyuk inactive with a shoulder injury, 49ers WR Deebo Samuel was featured in Thursday night's win over the Giants. He drew a team-high 12 targets for a 32.4% target share. Samuel and QB Brock Purdy actually missed on a few connections they usually make, but Samuel still finished with 6 catches for 129 yards and a score. He had a couple of trademark bulldozing catch-and-runs. And he capped the night with a 29-yard TD down the right sideline. Expect Samuel's target share to take a bit of a hit whenever Aiyuk is ready to return. But he'll remain a big part of this high-scoring 49ers offense -- and a strong WR2 in fantasy lineups.

View all Deebo Samuel Shark Bites »

49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk (shoulder) is officially inactive for tonight's game vs. the Giants. He seemed relatively close to playing tonight, so we're tentatively expecting him back for Week 4. Aiyuk's absence should make San Francisco's offense even more concentrated, with RB Christian McCaffrey, WR Deebo Samuel, and TE George Kittle dominating touches.

View all Brandon Aiyuk Shark Bites »

49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk exploded in Week 1 vs. the Steelers, hauling in all 8 targets for 129 receiving yards and 2 TDs. Teammate Deebo Samuel logged 5 catches on 7 targets for 55 of his own, and yards TE George Kittle had a quiet contest with just 3 catches on 6 targets for 19 yards. Despite the best efforts of Steelers CB Patrick Peterson, Aiyuk could not be stopped en route to setting a new career-high in yards in Sunday’s win. As a whole, the 49ers’ offense fired on all cylinders. Next week, the 49ers will face off against the Rams, a division opponent they beat in both of their matchups last season.

View all Brandon Aiyuk Shark Bites »

49ers WR Deebo Samuel said he’s in his best shape since his rookie season (2019). Samuel looks “decidedly sleeker and lighter on his feet” early in camp, per The Athletic’s Matt Barrows. The 27-year-old shared more about his new physique. “I think the heat kind of played a part because Arizona is hot,” Deebo said, referring to where he trained. “We were doing a lot of running, a lot of cardio, a lot of stuff to kind of trim the fat a little bit. A lot of track working out. Then I got into a routine of flexibility, mobility, and then I got into boxing a little bit.” Following a down 2022, Samuel hits the WR rankings as a top-20 option.

View all Deebo Samuel Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Deebo Samuel, WR SF
Dynasty MVP 107.4
Position Rank #28 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
365
562
880
Dynasty Write-up
Samuel enjoyed a breakout 2021, a season that included a league-leading 18.2 yards per reception. 2022 turned up a dip in production, due in part to injuries. Only 27, Samuel doesn’t project as a target hog as long as both Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle are around.
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