Bottom Line

Tennessee will likely be a run-heavy team once again, but Tannehill got more interesting with DeAndre Hopkins’ arrival.

Hopkins plus 2022 first-round WR Treylon Burks and intriguing second-year TE Chig Okonkwo give the Titans more receiving upside than they sported last season.

Tannehill still doesn’t excite for common 1-QB formats. But he represents solid draft value for superflex and 2-QB formats.

Treat him as the clear Titans starter there, rather than worrying about when second-round pick Will Levis might get a shot.

What We Learned Last Year

• Not a whole lot. In his age-34 season, Tannehill remained a limited QB. And with A.J. Brown gone via trade to the Eagles, he didn’t have much to work with.
• Tennessee went run-heavy once again, ranking just 30th in pass attempts and 30th in passing yards.
  • The Titans ranked 21st in Football Outsiders’ total offensive DVOA; 20th in pass-offense DVOA.
• Tannehill missed five games thanks to hurting his right ankle twice. He first hurt it in Week 7 and missed the next two contests. Tannehill returned for six more games but then missed the final three.
• Malik Willis used Tannehill’s absences to show he’s so far from ready to play in the NFL that Tennessee drafted Will Levis in Round 2.
• When on the field, Tannehill was fine.
  • His completion rate (65.2%) remained in line with his career numbers (64.3% career).
  • His 4.0% TD rate was below average among NFL starters but matched his 2021 rate.
  • His yards per pass attempt actually rebounded, from 7.0 in 2021 to 7.8. That ranked fifth in the league.
  • His 1.8% INT rate was the second lowest of his career, trailing only his 2020 Titans season.
  • His Pro Football Focus passing grade fell significantly vs. his first three years in Tennessee. Yet even that still ranked 18th among 43 QBs with 150+ dropbacks.
    • Tannehill finished the previous three years ranked 10th, seventh, and third.
• He might be officially done as a runner, though. Tannehill’s attempts per game and yards per game set career lows, and we can’t even blame the ankle. He averaged 4.8 rushing yards per game over six contests before the initial injury; 11.5 yards per game over the remaining six.
  • Overall, Tannehill averaged just 8.2 rushing yards per game, compared with 16.0 per game across his first three Titans seasons. Those three years rank second, third, and fourth in rushing yards per game among his 10 seasons in the NFL.
• The Titans’ leading receiver last year was the worst season of Robert Woods’ career: 53 catches, 527 yards, 2 TDs.
  • RB Dontrell Hillard led the team with four TD catches.
  • TE Austin Hooper joined Woods as the only titans with more than 33 receptions.

What to Expect in 2023

• DeAndre Hopkins became the biggest offensive addition with his July signing.
• Hopkins rebounded from a down 4.2 receptions per game in 2021 to 7.1 last season. He has missed 15 games over the past two seasons, but six of last year’s eight were because of suspension. There’s no indication – as of now – that we should worry about the hamstring or knee issues that cost him time over that stretch.
• The other big change figures to be a healthier Treylon Burks. The first-round pick (made with the selection acquired in the A.J. Brown trade) missed six names and ranked third on the team in targets (54), catches (33), and yards (444). He scored 1 TD.
• Even before sustaining a turf toe injury on Oct. 2, Burks met questions about his readiness. He didn’t eclipse 50% playing time until Week 3 (then got hurt the next game).
• After his return, he would lose two more games to a concussion.
• Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Kyle Philips should sit behind Hopkins and Burks on the WR depth chart. They combined for 33 catches in 21 player games.
• Chig Okonkwo elevates to the top TE spot, with Austin Hooper gone. He played just 36.5% of offensive snaps as a 2022 rookie but should be in for more after strong efficiency in the season’s second half.
• That Tennessee waited until Round 2 for Levis – whom many expected to go in the first half of Round 1 – tells us not to expect that they’ll rush him into the lineup.