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Ryan Tannehill - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Ryan Tannehill
TEN

QB TEN

#12 Quarterback

370 Projected Points

ADP: 9.3
Bye: 13
Experience: 9 Yr(s)
Age: 33
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 222
40 Time: 4.65

2021 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#12 Quarterback

370 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
9.3 352/533 4371 30 11 245

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

3d Projection

High Floor

325.6

DS Projection

370

Consensus

38 other sites
321.3

High Ceiling

447.7

Ceiling Likelihood

Medium
How likely they will reach their ceiling projection

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Tannehill finished 8th or 9th among QBs in most fantasy scoring systems last season.
  • He scored at a QB1 level in 6 games -- tied with Matt Ryan for 12th most. His 5 outings of top-5 scoring were tied for 5th most.
  • Tannehill ranked just 18th in pass attempts (481) and 15th in yards (3,817). But his 33 passing scores were tied for 7th most.
  • He added 43 carries for 266 yards and 7 TDs. Those marks ranked 17th, 13th and 5th at the position.
  • Tannehill took over as Tennessee’s starter in Week 7 of 2019. He scored the 3rd most total fantasy points and the 4th most per game among QBs the rest of the way.
  • He ranks 10th among QBs in fantasy points per game over the past 2 seasons.
  • Pro Football Focus ranked Tannehill 1st and 7th in passing grade those years.
  • The Titans lost WR Corey Davis, WR Adam Humphries and TE Jonnu Smith this offseason. Those guys accounted for 40% of the team’s targets, 41% of the catches, 43% of the receiving yards and 45% of the TDs last year.
  • They upgraded on Davis, swinging a trade for Julio Jones in June. Jones is 32 now and had his fair share of injury problems. But he’s remained dominant when on the field, ranking 4th and 5th, respectively, in yards per route run among WRs with 50+ targets over the past 2 seasons.
  • Tennessee also added some WR depth in free-agent Josh Reynolds and 4th-round rookie Dez Fitzpatrick.
  • Anthony Firkser, who caught 39 of 53 targets for 387 yards and 1 TD last year, is expected to replace Smith as the lead TE.
  • The Titans lost OC and play-caller Arthur Smith, who took Atlanta’s HC job. He’ll be replaced by Todd Downing. He spent the past 2 seasons as Tennessee’s TE coach, so the team is looking for continuity in scheme. But Downing has just 1 season of NFL OC experience. That came back in 2017 with the Raiders, who finished 17th in total yards and 23rd in points.
  • TD regression -- both passing and rushing -- is also a concern for Tannehill.
    • His 6.9% passing TD rate last year ranked 4th among 30 qualifying QBs. The league-wide passing TD rate over the past 3 seasons is 4.7%.
    • Tannehill scored on 7 of 43 carries last year -- a ridiculous 16.3% TD rate that’s a near lock to decrease. He scored on 3.4% of his carries over his first 7 NFL seasons.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Tannehill has scored as a low-end QB1 in Tennessee the past 2 seasons.

He’s gotten lucky in the TD department over that span and lost play-caller Arthur Smith, WR Corey Davis and TE Jonnu Smith this offseason.

But Tannehill has simply played very well since joining the Titans. And the weaponry looks just as strong this year with the arrival of Julio Jones to join stud WR A.J. Brown and underrated TE Anthony Firkser.

Add it all up and Tannehill again looks like a good bet for borderline QB1 numbers in 2021.

 

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

The Titans have promoted Todd Downing to OC. He replaces Arthur Smith, who took the HC job in Atlanta. Downing spent the past 2 seasons as Tennessee's TEs coach. His only NFL OC experience came back in 2017 with the Raiders, who finished that year 17th in total yards and 23rd in points. The more of Smith's offense Downing can keep in place, the better.

View all Ryan Tannehill Shark Bites »

The Titans have shut down their facility again after a coach tested positive for COVID on Sunday morning, ESPN's Adam Schefter reports. The team had gone a couple days without a positive and seemed on track to play the Bills on Tuesday night. But that's now in serious doubt. We'll continue tracking the situation, but Bills and Titans players should probably be on fantasy benches for now.

View all Ryan Tannehill Shark Bites »

The Titans had 2 more players test positive for COVID on Wednesday morning, ESPN's Dan Graziano reports. The team was expected to return to its facility today, but that can't happen now. Sunday's Titans-Bills game is now in serious jeopardy. Fantasy owners need to be prepared to be without players from those teams in Week 5.

View all Ryan Tannehill Shark Bites »

The Titans and QB Ryan Tannehill have agreed to a 4-year, $118 million deal with $91 million in total guarantees, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. That $29.5 million average annual salary makes Tannehill the league's 7th highest paid QB. After a mostly disappointing 6 seasons in Miami, Tannehill was awesome for Tennessee last year. Including the playoffs, he completed 68.5% of his passes, averaged 9.0 yards per attempt and tossed 27 TDs vs. 7 INTs across 14 appearances. He was fantasy's #3 QB after taking over as the Titans' starter in Week 7. Note, though, that Tannehill averaged just 25.4 pass attempts in his 13 starts. He'll need to reproduce last year's otherworldly efficiency in order to score as a top 10 QB on that type of volume. Consider Tannehill more of a high-end QB2 in early best-ball drafts.

View all Ryan Tannehill Shark Bites »

The Titans announced Tuesday that QB Ryan Tannehill will start Sunday's game against the Chargers. The move doesn't come as a surprise after Marcus Mariota was benched in the Week 6 loss at Denver. But it's a significant shift away from the "franchise" QB. Mariota's in the final year (the option year) of his rookie contract and seems almost certainly done with Tennessee after this season. Tannehill is on just a 1-year deal and already 31. If the Titans can get competent QB play, they have enough pass-catching talent to deliver at least usable fantasy value around the offense -- including under center. We wouldn't consider Tannehill outside of DFS and 2-QB leagues in his first start.

View all Ryan Tannehill Shark Bites »

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