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Ryan Tannehill - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Ryan Tannehill
TEN

QB TEN

#12 Quarterback

370 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 13
Experience: 9 Yr(s)
Age: 33
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 222
40 Time: 4.65

Weekly Outlook

3d Projection

Med Floor

14.6

DS Projection

19.5

Consensus

38 other sites
21

Med Ceiling

24.6

Rest of
Season

21.3

Week 6 Projections
Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
252 1.4 0.8 15 19.5
Weekly Writeup
We’ll see if Julio Jones is able to return for this one. But one thing’s for sure: Buffalo presents a tough matchup for enemy QBs. Through 5 games, they’ve allowed just 5 passing scores and only 188.2 passing YPG.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
246 1.7 0.7 17 21.3
Week 5
Tannehill completed 14 of 22 passes for 197 yards and 1 TD in the Titans' Week 5 win over the Jaguars. He added 21 yards rushing on 3 carries on the ground.
The Titans didn’t ask much from Tannehill as they rode Derrick Henry for 29 carries and 2 of their TDs, with the other TD going to the defense on the first drive of the game.
In Week 6 the Titans are 5.5-point home underdogs to the Bills, who have given up the fewest points per game in the NFL. Tannehill will certainly be asked to do more in this game, but it remains to be seen if Julio Jones will return from his hamstring injury.
Week 4
When evaluating Tannehill’s Week 4, we have to take into context that he was down his two best playmakers in Julio Jones and A.J. Brown. Then we need to factor in how well the Jets D has played vs. QBs this season. Believe it or not, the Jets have allowed the 4th fewest points to the position so far in 2021. Now factoring all that in Tannehill’s 298 passing yards were extremely impressive. Even though the effort was in a loss, Tannehill found his grove in the 4th quarter, including a passing TD to Cameron Batson.
This week Tannehill looks to build on the 4th quarter success as he gets his best matchup yet vs. the Jaguars. The Jaguars have allowed the 3rd most passing yards this season, including allowing at least 291 pass yards in all four games. It will be important to track the progress of Julio Jones and A.J. Brown this week, but if they are available Tannehill would be back on the QB1 map.
Week 3
Tannehill’s 18-of-27 passing for 197 yards fell in line with other meh passing lines in recent meetings with the Colts. A pair of INTs didn’t help either ( though at least 1 was not his fault). But Tannehill checked in at QB10 for the week by virtue of his 3 passing scores and 56 yards rushing.

Despite losing A.J. Brown early in this one, Tannehill spread TDs around to WR Chester Rogers, WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and RB Jeremy McNichols. The scores for the Rogers and McNichols marked their only catches of the game, whereas Westbrook-Ikhine tied Julio Jones and TE Geoff Swaim for the team target lead. The QB spread the ball around in general, completing passes to 9 guys and sending 2+ targets to 8 teammates.

Tannehill gobbled up half of his rushing yardage on a 28-yard, 3rd-quarter scramble.

The Week 4 matchup with the Jets might be a little tricky. The Jets have allowed the 3rd-fewest QB fantasy points through 3 games, including a league-low 1 TD pass. But Football Outsiders also rates them just 16th in overall defensive DVOA and 18th against the pass.

Ultimately, the Jets are probably at least a little better on defense than most anticipated heading into the season, but it’s certainly not a matchup to be wary of with your fantasy QB.
Week 2
Tannehill found his stride in Week 2 after a slow opener, lighting up the Seahawks defense for 347 yards. However, it was a tough break for Tannehill fantasy owners as he only scored 1 TD on the ground. Tannehill did have a passing TD called back after the refs said WR Julio Jones stepped out of bounds. This led to Tannehill finishing outside the top 20 for QBs in Week 2. The silver lining for fantasy owners is Tannehill should have had a much bigger day as his receivers dropped a league-high 5 passes on the week.
Tannehill’s Week 3 matchup calls for a blow-up game vs. a Colts secondary that has allowed the 8th most points to the QB position through 2 weeks. The issue comes with whether Wentz will play to take advantage of the weak Titans defense. If Wentz is out, Tannehill might not need to do much, making him a risky start in Week 3.

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Tannehill finished 8th or 9th among QBs in most fantasy scoring systems last season.
  • He scored at a QB1 level in 6 games -- tied with Matt Ryan for 12th most. His 5 outings of top-5 scoring were tied for 5th most.
  • Tannehill ranked just 18th in pass attempts (481) and 15th in yards (3,817). But his 33 passing scores were tied for 7th most.
  • He added 43 carries for 266 yards and 7 TDs. Those marks ranked 17th, 13th and 5th at the position.
  • Tannehill took over as Tennessee’s starter in Week 7 of 2019. He scored the 3rd most total fantasy points and the 4th most per game among QBs the rest of the way.
  • He ranks 10th among QBs in fantasy points per game over the past 2 seasons.
  • Pro Football Focus ranked Tannehill 1st and 7th in passing grade those years.
  • The Titans lost WR Corey Davis, WR Adam Humphries and TE Jonnu Smith this offseason. Those guys accounted for 40% of the team’s targets, 41% of the catches, 43% of the receiving yards and 45% of the TDs last year.
  • They upgraded on Davis, swinging a trade for Julio Jones in June. Jones is 32 now and had his fair share of injury problems. But he’s remained dominant when on the field, ranking 4th and 5th, respectively, in yards per route run among WRs with 50+ targets over the past 2 seasons.
  • Tennessee also added some WR depth in free-agent Josh Reynolds and 4th-round rookie Dez Fitzpatrick.
  • Anthony Firkser, who caught 39 of 53 targets for 387 yards and 1 TD last year, is expected to replace Smith as the lead TE.
  • The Titans lost OC and play-caller Arthur Smith, who took Atlanta’s HC job. He’ll be replaced by Todd Downing. He spent the past 2 seasons as Tennessee’s TE coach, so the team is looking for continuity in scheme. But Downing has just 1 season of NFL OC experience. That came back in 2017 with the Raiders, who finished 17th in total yards and 23rd in points.
  • TD regression -- both passing and rushing -- is also a concern for Tannehill.
    • His 6.9% passing TD rate last year ranked 4th among 30 qualifying QBs. The league-wide passing TD rate over the past 3 seasons is 4.7%.
    • Tannehill scored on 7 of 43 carries last year -- a ridiculous 16.3% TD rate that’s a near lock to decrease. He scored on 3.4% of his carries over his first 7 NFL seasons.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Tannehill has scored as a low-end QB1 in Tennessee the past 2 seasons.

He’s gotten lucky in the TD department over that span and lost play-caller Arthur Smith, WR Corey Davis and TE Jonnu Smith this offseason.

But Tannehill has simply played very well since joining the Titans. And the weaponry looks just as strong this year with the arrival of Julio Jones to join stud WR A.J. Brown and underrated TE Anthony Firkser.

Add it all up and Tannehill again looks like a good bet for borderline QB1 numbers in 2021.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Titans LT Taylor Lewan suffered a leg injury in pregame warmups-ups and is inactive vs. Seattle

View all Ryan Tannehill Shark Bites »

Titans QB Ryan Tannehill has been activated from the COVID list. He should be good to go for next Sunday's opener vs. the Cardinals. RB Jeremy McNichols was also activated from the COVID list and will join Mekhi Sargent behind Derrick Henry on the depth chart.

View all Ryan Tannehill Shark Bites »

The Titans announced Thursday that QB Ryan Tannehill has landed on the COVID list. It's not yet clear whether he tested positive or was merely a close contact, so he'll miss anywhere from 5-10 days. Either timeframe should still have him back on the field ahead of the regular-season opener. We'll pass along any further updates on the situation.

View all Ryan Tannehill Shark Bites »

The Titans have promoted Todd Downing to OC. He replaces Arthur Smith, who took the HC job in Atlanta. Downing spent the past 2 seasons as Tennessee's TEs coach. His only NFL OC experience came back in 2017 with the Raiders, who finished that year 17th in total yards and 23rd in points. The more of Smith's offense Downing can keep in place, the better.

View all Ryan Tannehill Shark Bites »

The Titans have shut down their facility again after a coach tested positive for COVID on Sunday morning, ESPN's Adam Schefter reports. The team had gone a couple days without a positive and seemed on track to play the Bills on Tuesday night. But that's now in serious doubt. We'll continue tracking the situation, but Bills and Titans players should probably be on fantasy benches for now.

View all Ryan Tannehill Shark Bites »

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