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Christian McCaffrey - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsChristian McCaffrey's Basic Stats

Christian McCaffrey
ADP: 1.1
Bye: 9
Experience: 6 Yr(s)
Age: 27.3
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 205
40 Time: 4.48
SPARQx (Rank): 105.10 (33%)
Burst Score (Rank): 124.30 (80%)
Agility Score (Rank): 10.79 (98%)
Three Cone Drill (Rank): 6.57

Christian McCaffrey's Weekly Outlook

Week 4 Projections
Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
94.6 0.7 3.7 29.8 0.2 17.4
Weekly Writeup
The Cardinals defense has played better than expected so far but still ranks 19th in run defense DVOA. McCaffrey should have no trouble in this matchup. His 49ers have a massive 29.0-point implied total.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
56.9 0.5 4.2 35.1 0.2 12.9

Christian McCaffrey's 2023 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#3 Running Back

207 Projected Points

ADP Rush Atts Rush Yds Rush TDs 100 Fum Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs
1.1 195.9 910.7 7.7 2 2.8 66.9 561 3.2

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsChristian McCaffrey's Preseason Player Analysis

View RB Fantasy Rankings »
Bottom Line

McCaffrey was traded to the 49ers last October and, not surprisingly, was a fantasy monster in HC Kyle Shanahan’s offense.

In nine regular-season games with a full allotment of snaps, he led all RBs in PPR points per game and ranked third in non-PPR points per game.

His usage took a hit when RB Elijah Mitchell was healthy, though. His scoring averages in five games with Mitchell would have ranked seventh in PPR and 12th in non-PPR.

Mitchell’s return adds some risk to McCaffrey’s 2023 fantasy profile. But we’re ultimately expecting him to see more work after a full offseason to settle into the 49ers offense.

We’re taking a few WRs and maybe a RB or two ahead of McCaffrey, depending on your scoring system. So you might not draft him much if you’re following our rankings.

What We Learned Last Year
  • McCaffrey spent the first six weeks of last season with the Panthers. He racked up 393 rushing yards, 277 receiving yards, and three TDs over that span, ranking fourth among RBs in both PPR and non-PPR points.
  • McCaffrey was traded to the 49ers on Oct. 20 in exchange for second, third, and fourth-round picks in the 2023 draft, plus a 2024 fifth-rounder.
  • He made his 49ers debut three days later, although he totaled just 10 touches on 23 snaps.
  • McCaffrey was a full-go for the next nine games. (He was limited in the regular-season finale, with San Francisco having little to play for.)
  • His averages across those nine games:
    • 15.7 carries
    • 73.7 rushing yards
    • 0.7 rushing TDs
    • 6.7 targets
    • 5.2 catches
    • 45.1 receiving yards
    • 0.3 receiving TDs
  • McCaffrey led all RBs in PPR points per game over that span. He ranked third in non-PPR points per game.
  • In terms of expected fantasy points per game, McCaffrey ranked second in PPR and first in non-PPR.
  • His usage took a hit when RB Elijah Mitchell was healthy. Including playoffs, McCaffrey had five full-go games with Mitchell and seven without. Here are the per-game splits:

  • McCaffrey still out-carried Mitchell 6-2 inside the 5-yard line in their five games together.
  • McCaffrey’s scoring averages in the five games with Mitchell would have ranked seventh among RBs in PPR points per game for the season and 12th in non-PPR.
  • Perhaps more importantly, his average expected points per game with Mitchell would have ranked fourth in PPR and sixth in non-PPR.

What to Expect in 2023
  • With a full offseason in HC Kyle Shanahan’s offense, it’s fair to expect McCaffrey’s role to expand. Consider the usage he got with Elijah Mitchell last season his floor. We’re projecting him for more work.
  • There are questions at QB in San Francisco. Brock Purdy is working back from March surgery on his throwing elbow. If he’s not ready for Week 1, it’s not even clear if Trey Lance would start over Sam Darnold, who signed a one-year deal with the ‘Niners in free agency.
  • The 49ers lost RT Mike McGlinchey in free agency. Outside of LT Trent Williams, this offensive line looks very weak on paper.
  • Shanahan’s scheme has a way of masking deficiencies, though. The 49ers have ranked top-15 in rushing yards in six straight seasons – and top-8 in three of the last four.
  • McCaffrey turned 27 in June. Our aging-curve research shows that elite RBs produce, on average, at 93% of their peak at age-27.
  • McCaffrey showed no signs of decline last year. His 2022 Pro Football Focus rushing grade was actually the best mark of his six-year career. His 2.90 yards after contact per attempt was his third-best mark. And his PFF receiving grade and 1.83 yards per route run were the second-best marks of his career.

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Christian McCaffrey, RB SF

11:25pm EDT 9/21/23

Christian McCaffrey scores again

49ers RB Christian McCaffrey's four-yard TD run in the second quarter of Thursday night's win over the Giants marked his 12th straight game with at least one TD. That ties WR Jerry Rice for the longest streak in franchise history. McCaffrey finished this one with 18 carries for 85 yards and the score, plus five catches on five targets for 34 yards. He gave way to RB Elijah Mitchell a bit more in this one -- but fantasy owners have nothing to complain about. McCaffrey will continue to be an elite fantasy asset as long as he stays healthy. He gets another plus matchup in Week 4 vs. the Cardinals before tougher draws against the Cowboys and Browns.

View all Christian McCaffrey Shark Bites »

49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk (shoulder) is officially inactive for tonight's game vs. the Giants. He seemed relatively close to playing tonight, so we're tentatively expecting him back for Week 4. Aiyuk's absence should make San Francisco's offense even more concentrated, with RB Christian McCaffrey, WR Deebo Samuel, and TE George Kittle dominating touches.

View all Brandon Aiyuk Shark Bites »

The 49ers have given RB Christian McCaffrey 2 more carries through two weeks than any other player in the NFL has received. His 42 rushes lead Derrick Henry (40) and Tony Pollard (39), with the two Monday night games of Week 2 yet to go. That's abnormal for McCaffrey, who has reached 20 carries in consecutive games just three other times in his career. He averaged 14.7 carries per game across 13 starts with the 49ers last year, including the playoffs. Summer indications had San Francisco planning to use McCaffrey in a way that would preserve him for the season. That doesn't match up with 21.0 carries per game, of course. We'd be surprised if his carry count and carry share stays that high. But it doesn't really matter as long as McCaffrey stays healthy. He's obviously an every-week starter whenever available. No other 49ers RB even played an offensive snap against the Rams.

View all Christian McCaffrey Shark Bites »

49ers RB Christian McCaffrey recorded 22 attempts for 152 rushing yards, including a 65-yard TD in Week 1’s win vs. the Steelers. He also added 3 receptions on 7 targets with 17 receiving yards through the air. The Pittsburgh front struggled to stop McCaffrey for the majority of the contest. His 25.9 PPR points are a strong contender to be the most among RBs in Week 1. Fantasy managers should expect another robust outing in Week 2 vs. the Rams.

View all Christian McCaffrey Shark Bites »

49ers RB Elijah Mitchell is dealing with an adductor strain that’ll sideline him for about one week, per HC Kyle Shanahan. Mitchell’s extensive injury history remains a concern in Year 3. He should still fill a part-time role behind Christian McCaffrey when healthy, though. Current projections have Mitchell for about 8 touches per game.

View all Elijah Mitchell Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View RB Dynasty Rankings »

Christian McCaffrey, RB SF
Dynasty MVP 123.6
Position Rank #13 RB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
438
641
968
Dynasty Write-up
Healthy CMC returned for 2022, while a move to San Francisco only rejuvenated his fantasy value. Attached to Kyle Shanahan and under contract through the 2025 season, McCaffrey remains a dual-threat RB1.
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