Christian McCaffrey - Fantasy Points Outlook

What You Need to Know:

• McCaffrey ranked 5th among RBs in PPR points per game last season … including the 2 games he left early with injuries. Take those 2 away, and he led the position.
• McCaffrey’s mere 3 appearances in 2020 found him scoring even better, beating #2 Alvin Kamara by 4.9 PPR points per game.
• The previous season, of course, found a healthy McCaffrey dominating fantasy football. He averaged 8.3 more PPR points per game than any other RB; 5.9 more than any WR. Among all positions, only Lamar Jackson beat McCaffrey in points per game. If you took only McCaffrey’s receiving production for that season, he would have tied for 11th among RBs and ranked 12th among WRs.
• 2018 delivered his breakout, with McCaffrey ranking 2nd among RBs in total PPR points and 3rd in points per game.
• According to our data, McCaffrey is a “medium” risk to miss time this season, with a projection of 1.9 missed games. For some context, Derrick Henry and Austin Ekeler come in as higher risks. Najee Harris projects similarly.
• McCaffrey lost time to hamstring and left-ankle injuries last year. In 2020, it was a high right ankle sprain, then a shoulder injury, then a thigh injury.
• For his 5 healthy games last season, McCaffrey garnered 58.2% carry share and 22.9% target share. That was right in line with his passing-game standing in 2019, the last time we got a full season. The carry share was down, however, vs. 74.4% in 2019. McCaffrey opened 2021 at that higher level before his initial injury.
• "Any time Christian is out there, he changes, tilts the game, tilts the field," HC Matt Rhule said in late May, according to SI.com. "At the same time, we're trying to really invest in Chuba [Hubbard], invest in D'Onta [Foreman], and the other backs because we want to make sure that we have a well-rounded offense.
• That sounds like the team knows it needs to spell McCaffrey a bit more than previous offensive plans did.
• The Panthers signed D’Onta Foreman to a 1-year, $2 million early in free agency. He joins returnee Chuba Hubbard. Ameer Abdullah – who arrived in the middle of last year and took on some receiving work late – is gone.
• Among Panthers, only D.J. Moore and Robbie Anderson cracked double digits in target share last year.
• Panthers HC Matt Rhule has no plans to lighten RB Christian McCaffrey's workload.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

If we could guarantee a full – or even near-full – healthy season for McCaffrey, then no one would contest his early Round 1 draft position. Whether to draft him at cost really comes down to your comfort level. McCaffrey’s displayed ceiling makes it worth some discomfort, though.