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Christian McCaffrey - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsChristian McCaffrey's Basic Stats

Christian McCaffrey
ADP: 1.1
Bye: 9
Experience: 7
Age: 28.1
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 210
40 Time: 4.48

SPARQx (Rank): 105.10 (35%)
Burst Score (Rank): 124.30 (79%)
Agility Score (Rank): 10.79 (98%)
Three Cone Drill (Rank): 6.57

Christian McCaffrey's Weekly Outlook

Week 1 Projections
Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
80.6 0.77 4.3 36.5 0.3 18.3
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
65.8 0.5 4.7 39.1 0.2 14.7

Christian McCaffrey's 2024 Projections & Outlook


#1 Running Back

314 Projected Points

ADP Rush Atts Rush Yds Rush TDs 100 Fum Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs
1.1 235.2 1128.4 10.78 5.6 0 60.2 511 4.2

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsChristian McCaffrey's Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

McCaffrey is coming off a dominant 2023 season, leading all RBs in total fantasy points and points per game.

He turned 28 in June but has shown no signs of decline, actually posting career highs in most rushing efficiency metrics last year. The 49ers clearly aren’t worried about his age, handing him a two-year extension this offseason.

McCaffrey returns to a nearly identical situation this season. He’s the clear top RB in fantasy football and should be a top-2 pick in every draft.

What We Learned Last Year

  • McCaffrey led all RBs last year with 395.3 total PPR points and 24.7 PPR points per game. (He also led in half-PPR and non-PPR points.)
  • The 24.7 PPR points per game were the eighth most from a RB over the last 10 seasons.
  • McCaffrey benefitted from awesome usage.
    • He led all RBs with 1,006 offensive snaps and 550 pass routes.
    • McCaffrey ranked fourth among RBs in both carries per game (17.0) and targets per game (5.2).
    • He ranked second among RBs in carries inside the 10-yard line (34) and fourth in carries inside the five (17).
    • He led all RBs with eight targets inside the 10.
    • McCaffrey led all RBs with 20.5 expected PPR points per game.
  • McCaffrey exceeded his expected PPR points per game by 4.2 because he remained one of the best RBs in the league.
  • He set career highs last year with:
    • 5.4 yards per carry
    • 3.4 yards after contact per attempt
    • 0.22 missed tackles forced per attempt
    • 65.5 Pro Football Focus elusive rating
    • 90.6 PFF rushing grade
  • McCaffrey tied for third among 49 qualifying RBs in PFF rushing grade.
  • He ranked second among those 49 RBs in NFL Next Gen Stats’ Rush Yards Over Expected Per Attempt.
  • McCaffrey was also awesome in the passing game. Among 43 RBs with 30+ targets, he ranked:
    • 14th in catch rate
    • 7th in yards per catch
    • 6th in yards per target
    • 9th in yards per route
    • 2nd in PFF receiving grade

What to Expect in 2024

  • McCaffrey is back in San Francisco and even got a two-year contract extension in early June that keeps him with the 49ers through the 2027 season.
  • The team clearly isn’t worried about a decline from the 28-year-old. It’s tough to argue with that considering McCaffrey set career highs in most rushing efficiency metrics last year.
  • HC Kyle Shanahan suggested in early June that he’d like to lighten McCaffrey’s load.
    • “If he’s just taking the wear and tear with 20 carries and stuff every game — and he’s definitely good enough to do that, and he’s proved he can stay healthy — but you’d like to take some of that off him and give it to other guys also.”
  • That’s easier said than done, especially when the 49ers only added fourth-round rookie Isaac Guerendo and undrafted rookie Cody Schrader to the backfield. We’re expecting McCaffrey to again have the most fantasy-friendly role among RBs this season.
  • The 49ers return QB Brock Purdy along with WR Deebo Samuel, WR Brandon Aiyuk, and TE George Kittle.
  • They also return all five starters on the offensive line. Last year’s 49ers ranked:
    • 1st in Pro Football Focus’ run-blocking grades
    • 23rd in ESPN’s run-block win rate
    • 1st in adjusted line yards
  • Our Injury Predictor gives McCaffrey a 63.6% chance of injury (21st-highest among RBs) and 3.0 projected games missed (tied for eighth most) this season.

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Christian McCaffrey, RB SF

2:00pm EDT 6/4/24

Christian McCaffrey gets two-year extension

The 49ers and RB Christian McCaffrey have agreed to a two-year extension averaging $19 million per year, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. It makes McCaffrey the league's highest-paid RB and keeps him signed with San Francisco through the 2027 season. McCaffrey will be 31 when this deal expires.

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The 49ers selected Louisville RB Isaac Guerendo in Round 4 of the NFL Draft. Guerendo battled hamstring and foot injuries at Wisconsin. When healthy, he sat behind Jonathan Taylor and fellow rookie Braelon Allen. So, after five years in Madison (and only 99 carries), Guerendo transferred to Lousiville in 2023. He shared the backfield with Jawhar Jordan, who actually led the team with 181 carries (vs. 132 for Guerendo). The duo posted nearly identical receiving lines: 22-234-0 for Guerendo and 21-246-1 for Jordan. Guerendo wins with an impressive combo of size, speed, and athleticism. The 221-pounder brings return value, too, with 714 career kick return yards. He was the talk of the NFL Combine after posting a ridiculous all-around workout. Consider this: Guerendo’s 4.33 forty time, 129" broad jump, and 41.5" vertical jump all ranked in the 95th percentile or better among Combine RBs since 1999. Now, he doesn’t always play up to those testing numbers. But that potential remains as he gains more reps. In San Francisco, Guerendo will be battling for scraps behind Christian McCaffrey. It’s an awful spot for the rookie’s short-term fantasy value. Landing with HC Kyle Shanahan helps the long-term outlook. McCaffrey turns 28 in June and is signed through 2025.

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49ers RB Christian McCaffrey (calf) was a full-go in practice all week and is not listed on the final injury report. He'll be ready for his usual workhorse role vs. the Packers on Saturday night.

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49ers RB Christian McCaffrey (calf) was a full participant in Tuesday's practice. He'll play -- and be ready for a full workload -- vs. the Packers on Saturday night. McCaffrey sits clear atop the RB Rankings for the Divisional Round.

View all Christian McCaffrey Shark Bites »

49ers HC Kyle Shanahan said Tuesday that he expects RB Christian McCaffrey (calf) to be "full-go" in practice next week. That would obviously set CMC up for his usual workhorse role in the Divisional Round. We'll keep you updated on McCaffrey's status, but he seems safe to select for playoff fantasy rosters. He sits No. 1 overall in our NFL Playoff Fantasy Rankings.

View all Christian McCaffrey Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View RB Dynasty Rankings »

Christian McCaffrey, RB SF
Dynasty MVP 122.6
Position Rank #19 RB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
Dynasty Write-up
CMC was excellent in 2023, finishing as the clear-cut RB1. Attached to Kyle Shanahan and under contract through the 2025 season, McCaffrey remains an excellent short-term asset.
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