David Njoku - Fantasy Points Outlook

What You Need to Know:

• In the same offseason they spent big (cap wise and in trade) for Deshaun Watson and Amari Cooper, the Browns could have let Njoku walk in free agency. Instead, they applied the franchise tag to keep him off the open market and then agreed to a 4-year deal worth nearly $55 million.
• Njoku was 1 of the youngest rookie TEs in league history, at 21 (and 2 months).
• Here were his historical ranks among TEs through their age-24 seasons:
  
  • 12th in games
  • 18th in targets
  • 30th in receptions
  • 38th in receiving yards
• Now through the age-26 season:
  
  • 56th in games
  • 46th in targets
  • 75th in receptions
  • 77th in yards
• The key differences between those 2 spans: HC Kevin Stefanski and TE Austin Hooper arrived 2 years ago.
• After retaining Njoku and trading for Cooper, Cleveland released Hooper.
• Stefanski said in early June about Njoku that he’s “proud of his evolution” as a blocker and “complete” TE. The coach added that they “certainly want to feature him” and that Njoku is “a big part of what we plan to do.” He also specifically touted Njoku’s size and ability to “pluck” contested catches.
• The Browns’ 2 seasons under Stefanski have seen the team rank 2nd and 4th in TE target share.
• Cooper, Njoku, Kareem Hunt and free-agent addition Jakeem Grant are the only 2022 Browns with at least 100 career receptions. That makes for a largely inexperienced corps of pass-catchers.
• Deshaun Watson has ranked among the league’s top passers across efficiency metrics through 4 seasons of action. His outlook, of course, remains in flux because of the 24 cases of sexual-misconduct charges against him. If Watson gets suspended for the year, Cleveland would need to either talk Baker Mayfield into playing out his final year or be stuck with Jacoby Brissett as starting QB.
• Njoku will also have Harrison Bryant competing for targets at TE. Hooper ranked just 22nd among TEs in target share last year, with Njoku and Bryant around. Njoku checked in 27th.
• Among 44 TEs with 30+ targets in 2021, Njoku ranked 11th in yards per route run (1.56). That’s the best mark of his career to date. The 2nd-best number (1.40) came in 2020 and ranked 19th among 45 qualifiers.
• He tied for just 27th in contested catch rate (42.9%), according to Pro Football Focus. Even his career rate of 47% in that category would have ranked just 23rd. (So we’ll see whether Stefanski is right about the TE’s upside in that area.)

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Njoku hit the league as a freakish athlete for the position and a young 1st-round pick. He posted a 56-639-4 receiving line in his 2nd year (2018) that made him look like an ascending talent. Five years into his career, though, he still has yet to truly break out.

The biggest thing missing over the past 2 years has been opportunity. Whether that’s Njoku’s fault or the coaching staff’s is debatable. HC Kevin Stefanski arrived in 2020 and promptly added Austin Hooper as a free agent and Harrison Bryant as a 4th-round pick.

Stefanski has said all the right things about Njoku this offseason, however. And the team said as much by throwing big money at the TE ahead of his age-26 season. We know the physical ability is there, and it sounds like his coaches believe Njoku is ready to realize his potential. Throw in the available opportunity in an offense that has heavily targeted TEs the past 2 years and returns little at WR, and the upside path for Njoku is very easy to see. His TE2-level ADP leaves limited risk to betting on that path.