Not Slated For a Fantasy-Friendly Role
Njoku signed a one-year deal with the Chargers worth “up to” $8 million, per multiple reports. Even at max value, that would rank just 19th at the position in average annual salary, and the fact that he lasted into May suggests the league no longer views him as a lead TE.
He also won’t have that role in Los Angeles, where Oronde Gadsden II enters Year 2 after a mini breakout of 49 catches, 664 yards, and 3 TDs.
The Chargers also added former Raven Charlie Kolar, one of PFF’s highest-graded run-blocking TEs last year. He probably won’t beat Njoku in targets, but his three-year contract with $17 million guaranteed suggests he’ll play enough to squeeze Njoku’s snaps and target upside.
The WR group brings young potential and uncertainty. Ladd McConkey’s production declined last season, while Quentin Johnston remained a limited piece of the offense with a target share that ranked 57th among WRs. Tre Harris played all 17 games as a rookie but was a non-factor.
Keenan Allen’s departure vacates 122 targets from last year’s count, but Njoku’s recent play suggests he won’t claim much of that work.
QB, O-line Play Supplies Some Hope
Njoku does land with Justin Herbert, who ranked ninth in both pass attempts and passing yards last year despite constant pressure.
The O-line will bear watching after both OTs underwent offseason surgeries. LT Rashawn Slater and RT Joe Alt are at least on track to participate in training camp.
Deciphering McDaniel's Approach
The Chargers’ personnel moves suggest they’ll mix in more two- and three-TE sets. That would mark a departure from last year, when they ranked last in 12-personnel usage (5.8%) and 23rd in 13-personnel usage (1.9%).
More TEs on the field would obviously increase Njoku’s chances of playing and seeing targets, while having fewer WRs out there could shift more work to the TEs.
On the other side: Mike McDaniel’s Miami offense used two-back formations at a 33.25% rate, up from the Chargers’ 10.9% mark last season. That includes the use of fullback Alec Ingold, who followed McDaniel from the Dolphins on a two-year deal. His usage could make Njoku’s snap and route counts more volatile.
Risk Factors
It’s hard to find a ceiling case with the Chargers going three deep at TE. Add the expected FB usage, and Njoku likely needs a Gadsden injury just to become a worthwhile streamer.