Jake Ferguson Fantasy Overview

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Ferguson’s raw production landed him near the top of the position: 82 catches on 102 targets for 600 yards and 8 TDs. That left him:

• TE5 in total PPR points (186.1)
• TE10 in PPR points per game (10.95)

Weekly results proved uneven though:

• Seven top-10 finishes
• Eight weeks outside the top 15
• Four weeks outside the top 24

This was a TD-boosted TE1 season, not a consistently strong weekly performer.

Usage & Role

Ferguson handled strong overall volume:

• 102 targets (seventh among TEs)
• 82 receptions (third)
• 16.3% target share (16th)

But his role became much less appealing when CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens both played.

In 11 games with Lamb:

• 15.7% share
• TE14 in PPR PPG
• TE11 in expected

In 3 games without Lamb:

• 26.3% share
• TE1 in PPR PPG
• TE1 in expected

Full season:

• 16.3% share
• TE7 in PPR PPG
• TE3 in expected

That’s the key takeaway. When the offense is at full strength, Ferguson looks more like a fringe TE1 than a top-tier option.

Ferguson’s fantasy finish was driven heavily by scoring opportunity:

• 8 TDs (tied for third among TEs)
• 9.1 expected TDs (second)
• 27 red-zone targets (second)
• 12 end-zone targets (third)

The Cowboys ranked third in the NFL with 200 snaps in the red zone. They have consistently ranked near the top the NFL under Schottenheimer including eighth in 2024 and first in 2023.

Efficiency & Regression

This is where the biggest red flags show up. Ferguson’s reliance on TDs leaves his scoring fragile if the TDs dissipate. And he didn’t deliver encouraging numbers otherwise.

Among 38 TEs with 40+ targets in 2025, Ferguson ranked:

• 34th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
• 32nd in yards per route run (1.20, career low)
• 33rd in yards after catch per reception

Even more concerning: His yards per route run have declined each season. Ferguson continues to lose opportunities each year as the Cowboys spread the ball to other options. Each year, Ferguson is turning his on-field opportunity into less production.

Offensive Context

The Cowboys offense under HC Brian Schottenheimer proved strong for fantasy production.

They ranked:

• Third in total yards per game
• Fourth in passing yards per game
• Sixth in passing TDs per game
• First in plays per game
• Eighth in pass rate
• Fifth in Expected Points Added per play

Brian Schottenheimer’s Dallas offenses have played quickly over the past two seasons after playing slow :

• 2023: third (66 plays per game)
• 2024: first (64.9 plays per game)
• 2025: third (65.9)

The offense did become slightly more balanced in 2025 though.

• 2023: 56.7% pass rate
• 2024: 61.1% Pass Rate
• 2025: 58.5% Pass Rate

The neutral pass rate stayed consistent at 57.7% in both seasons.

The pace keeps this passing game fantasy-friendly.

The O-line was more mixed. Dallas ranked 30th in Pro Football Focus pass-block grade, but third in adjusted sack rate and 19th in ESPN pass-block win rate. They should be more consistent in 2026 with all starters returning.

Supporting Cast

The Cowboys bring back their offensive core for 2026. Dak Prescott returns as the starting QB with Lamb and Pickens as the top WRs. They figure to similarly control target shares, simply because they’re much more talented than Ferguson.

The rest of the offense remains relatively intact. RB Javonte Williams returns as the starter after signing a three-year extension this offseason. Malik Davis and Jaydon Blue return as RB depth as well.

The offense should remain similar for 2026 with HC Brian Schottenheimer heading into his second season at the helm after two as Dallas OC.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

Schottenheimer’s offense has been fantasy-friendly for passing.

	2025	2024	2023
Pace	65.9 (Third)	64.9 (First	66 (Third)
Pass Rate	58.5%	61.1%	56.7%

Dallas wasn’t purely pass-happy in 2025, but Schottenheimer’s offenses keep a pace atop the league.

Paths To Ceiling

Ferguson hits his ceiling if:

• Red-zone usage stays elite
• TDs remain near the top of the position
• Target share climbs closer to 18–20%
• One of the WRs misses extended time.

That path likely lands him as a top-10 TE once again.

Risk Factors

Ferguson’s profile does present some major risk factors. He has a poor efficiency profile (bottom-third across key metrics) with heavy TD reliance. Ferguson showed his floor when the offense was at full strength and CeeDee Lamb was on the field. During his weeks playing with Lamb, Ferguson finished as TE14 in PPR points per game. Without Lamb? He was TE1.His TDs will likely regress if Lamb and Pickens play all season. Ferguson falls into TE2 territory for the full season if that happens. His 2026 scoring will be closely tied to red-zone usage.