Jayden Higgins Fantasy Overview

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Higgins finished his rookie season with 41 receptions for 525 yards and 6 TDs across 17 games, totaling 129.5 PPR fantasy points (47th) and 7.62 per game (69th). The weekly finishes were largely invisible. He landed outside the top 36 in 10 of 17 weeks, managed just one top-12 finish, and landed among the top 26 five other times.

His six receiving scores tied for 18th among all WRs despite a mere No. 54 finish in targets (69).

Usage & Role

The usage picture explains most of Higgins' fantasy limitations in his rookie season. He reached a snap rate of 60% or higher in only seven games. He averaged just 4.9 targets (13.7% share), 2.4 catches, and 25.9 yards in those games.

Higgins’ production trended upward in the second half of the season with 5+ targets in six of the last nine games.

Higgins played almost exclusively as an outside WR (78.0% wide rate, 21.5% slot rate).

Efficiency & Regression

Among 15 rookie WRs with 30+ targets, Higgins ranked third in PFF receiving grade, tied for fourth in yards per route run, and fifth in target per route.

His 1.45 yards per route run ranked 52nd among the 90 WRs with 40+ targets. That placed him in more of a complementary role.

Higgins' 12.4-yard aDOT (34th) and 12.8 yards per catch (41st) show some downfield ability.

Offensive Context

Houston ranked eighth in pass attempts and 16th in pass rate (57.4%), operating as a relatively balanced offense. The Texans ran 64.0 plays per game,, giving Stroud a reasonable number of opportunities.

Houston ranked 19th in neutral pass rate (54.5%), and 20th in pass rate over expected (-4.29%) in 2025.

Under coordinator Bobby Slowik in 2023-24, the offense ran with a higher pass rate and neutral pass rate. Under new OC Nick Caley in 2025, the offense actually ran the most plays per game but with a lower neutral pass rate (54.5%), signaling a more conservative approach even in neutral game scripts.

WRs did command 62.3% of targets (eighth), at least creating a larger pool of targets.

Projected Role & Competition

Higgins should start opposite Collins after the Texans made no meaningful WR additions in the offseason.

Christian Kirk, who matched Higgins in targets per game last year, has gone to San Francisco. Xavier Hutchinson should continue to get some snaps, but Higgins leap-frogged him on the depth chart as a rookie. Tank Dell also remains on the team, despite not having played since Week 16 of 2024. Dell participated in offseason workouts and could work in a rotation, but there isn’t a strong indication that he will come back at 100%. Jaylin Noel should see his role grow, but he works primarily from the slot and thus presents less direct competition for Higgins.

The question is less about competition and more about whether the coaching staff expands his role.

HC Demeco Ryans has been talking positively about Higgins and his potential role: “[He is] going to have a great year. He has lined up at multiple spots. He’s playing stronger. He’s making all of the tough catches. He’s playing extremely fast."

Supporting Cast

Houston’s switch from Slowik to Caley at OC met with the pass rate lowering a bit in 2025, both overall and in neutral situations. But the enhanced offensive pace and dramatically lower sack rate (5.1% from 8.65%) actually produced more team pass attempts than in 2024.

The Texans targeted WRs on 62.3% of attempts, eighth-highest in the league. More of that would obviously be good news for Higgins. And despite Stroud’s struggles, the Texans ranked ninth in aDOT. That’s also positive for Higgins, whose 12.4-yard aDOT conveys the downfield nature of his game.

This year’s Texans offense would probably like to see more targets shift from TE Dalton Schultz to a more dynamic player such as Higgins. Why? Because the second-year wideout will present more big-play promise and better per-catch yardage efficiency.

Drafting Higgins early in Round 2 last year signals the team’s belief in his abilities.

Of course, we also need to acknowledge RB David Montgomery’s arrival. That trade plus the second-round selection of TE Marlin Klein -- more run blocker than pass catcher at Michigan -- could signal a plan to run the ball more.

We’ll have to watch throughout summer for indications of the anticipated run-pass split.

Paths To Ceiling

If he wins the No. 2 job, Higgins should compete for the No. 2 ranking in targets. Schultz occupied that spot last year, but he jumped from 16th and 17th among TEs in target share the previous two years to 11th last season.

Houston’s offense would be better off if a dynamic young WR beats Schultz in targets.

The offense showed in 2024 it could support multiple WRs when Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs both ranked among the top 18 in PPR points per game, even with Stroud playing lackluster ball.

Of course, improved performance from Stroud would help everyone on offense.

Risk Factors

Although we expect Higgins to earn a full-time role, there’s the chance he disappoints this summer. Houston has enough options that it won’t need to force the ball to a second-year wideout who isn’t developing quickly enough.

Continued issues for Stroud could also particularly hamper his ability to consistently deliver intermediate and deep shots to Higgins. Those plays take longer to develop than shorter-range throws, and thus require adequate blocking and competent QB play.