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Jordan Love - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsJordan Love's Basic Stats

Jordan Love
ADP: 6.5
Bye: 10
Experience: 4
Age: 25.6
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 219
40 Time: 4.74

SPARQx (Rank): 94.10 (62%)
Burst Score (Rank): 121.10 (87%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.73 (24%)
Throw Velocity (Rank): 54.00 (37%)

Jordan Love's Weekly Outlook

Week 1 Projections
Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
266.8 1.97 0.7 13.4 19.3
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
224.7 1.4 0.8 15.2 15.8

Jordan Love's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#10 Quarterback

309 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
6.5 371.2/553.6 4268.8 31.52 11.2 46.4 214.4 4.8

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsJordan Love's Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

Love emerged as a good QB over the second half of last season. Barring some regression in his play, he should be well set up to score as a low-end QB1. A lack of rushing production hurts his ceiling, as does a run-leaning offense. But Love looks fine at market price.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Through the first half of last season, Love looked like a mediocre QB. Through Week 10 (nine Packers games):
    • He completed 58.7% of his passes.
    • He averaged 223.2 passing yards and 1.6 TD passes per game
    • He tossed 1.1 INT per contest.
    • He ranked just 16th among QBs in fantasy points per game.
    • He sat 21st in Pro Football Focus passing grade, right behind Tyrod Taylor.
    • It looked like Love’s three top-12 fantasy finishes over that span depended heavily on TD luck.
  • Things changed quite a bit the rest of the way. From Week 11 through the end of the regular season (eight games):
    • Love completed 70.3% of his passes.
    • He averaged 268.8 yards and 2.3 TD passes per game.
    • He tossed 1 total INT.
    • He ranked third among QBs in fantasy points per game.
    • He led all QBs in PFF passing grade.
    • And Love finished seven of those eight games among the top 12 fantasy QBs – including three finishes among the top 5.
  • What happened? It certainly wasn’t a matter of the opponents simply getting easier.
    • The median pass-defense DVOA rank for Packers foes through Week 10: 16
    • The median rank for foes from Week 11 on: 15.5
    • And both stretches included matchups with the Lions, Vikings, and Bears. Minnesota and Chicago played significantly better on defense later in the year. (Detroit stayed about the same.)
  • Experience likely played a big role.
    • It was Love’s first starting season after three years behind Aaron Rodgers.
    • And he worked with an exceedingly young group of pass catchers.
      • Among the 12 Packers who drew double-digit targets, only RB Aaron Jones was older than 25.
      • The top 10 included five rookies and three second-year players – with Jones and AJ Dillon rounding out the group.

What to Expect in 2024

  • The Packers return everyone but Jones from that aforementioned group.
  • Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson (when healthy), and Jayden Reed led the WRs in playing time. Dontayvion Wicks saw some role growth later in the season and produced efficiently as a fifth-round rookie.
  • TE Luke Musgrave is back healthy after losing six games to a lacerated kidney and then seeing a limited role upon his return. Fellow 2023 rookie Tucker Kraft proved to be a strong fill-in.
  • The offensive coaching staff remains intact as well. HC Matt LaFleur heads into his sixth season at the helm. OC Adam Stenavich hits Year 3 in his post. And Tom Clements begins Year 4 as QBs coach, as well as his 26th year on an NFL coaching staff.
  • Green Bay has gradually moved to more of a run lean across LaFleur’s head-coaching stint. Overall, the Packers rank 11th in neutral-situation pass rate since the start of 2019, according to RBSDM.com. But check out the annual rankings:
    • 2019: fifth
    • 2020: 10th
    • 2021: 11th
    • 2022: 18th
    • 2023: 20th
  • That span, of course, included the winding down of Aaron Rodgers’ career and a refreshing of the WR corps. Davante Adams left after 2021. Allen Lazard led the 2022 squad in targets, and then he (and Randall Cobb) left with Rodgers.
  • This year’s version paid up for RB Josh Jacobs in free agency and drafted RB MarShawn Lloyd in Round 3 (after parting ways with Aaron Jones). So it seems unlikely that we get a dramatic shift back toward the pass. But perhaps we see a slight move in that direction as the pass-catchers and new QB mature.
  • Love ranked just 11th among QBs in rushing yards in 2023, 13th in carries – despite being one of just nine QBs to play in all 17 games. He also tied for just 22nd in total scrambles, according to PFF.
    • So although he can run, neither Love nor the Packers seem especially interested in leveraging that aspect of his game.
    • That makes him a good bet to regress from last year’s 4 rushing TDs, which tied for seventh-most at the position.

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Michael Pratt, QB GB

3:27pm EDT 4/28/24

Michael Pratt to compete for Packers backup job

The Packers added Tulane QB Michael Pratt in the seventh round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Pratt didn’t start playing football until high school but was a four-year starter at Tulane and showed steady improvement throughout his career. Pratt’s completion rate climbed each year, topping out at 65.4% in 2023. And he went from 7.2 yards per attempt over his first two seasons to 8.7 over the last two. The 6’3, 217-pounder has average arm strength and durability concerns. He suffered a concussion in 2021, a shoulder injury and fractured heel in 2022, and a left knee injury in 2023. But Pratt is an accurate passer with good anticipation and pocket presence. He looks like a classic NFL backup. Pratt will look to beat out 2023 fifth-rounder Sean Clifford for Green Bay’s No. 2 job.

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Packers QB Jordan Love out-played Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes in a 27-19 win on Sunday night. (Not a sentence we expected to type.) Love completed 25 of 36 passes (69%) for 267 yards (7.4 YPA), three TDs, and 0 INTs. He threw scores in each of the first three quarters and then led a pair of FG drives in the fourth to fend off Mahomes and Co. Love became just the second QB to toss three TDs vs. Kansas City this season. His 267 passing yards were the second-most the Chiefs have allowed in a game this year. Love has now strung together five straight strong showings. He's completed 66% of his passes at 7.9 yards per attempt with 11 TDs vs. two INTs over that span. Love has finished as a top-15 fantasy QB in all five of those games, including four straight top-12 finishes. He might have lost WR Christian Watson to a hamstring injury in this one, which would ding his going-forward outlook. But Love gets nice matchups the next two weeks vs. the Giants and Bucs. He's earned QB1 consideration.

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Packers QB Jordan Love dominated the Lions on Thursday with 268 yards, 3 TDs, and 0 turnovers. He added 39 rushing yards, with 37 coming on a zone-read. But the real story here was Love’s accuracy, which he showed off on several tight-window and off-platform throws. His +7.3% completion rate over expected set a career-high, per Next Gen Stats. Love will be a risky QB1 next week vs. the Chiefs' stingy pass D. But he’ll be back on the streaming radar for a Week 14 date at the Giants.

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Packers QB Jordan Love took advantage of Sunday's upside matchup with the Chargers to throw for a career-high 322 yards. He completed 27 of 40 attempts, finding WR Romeo Doubs and WR Christian Watson for TDs. This game followed Love's previous high of 289 yards in a Week 11 loss to the Steelers. He threw 2 TDs in that one as well, but also tossed 2 INTs while completing just 52.5% of his 40 attempts. So chalk Love's big Week 11 up primarily to the generous Chargers matchup. He'll find upside in a Week 12 clash with the Lions, who allowed the Bears to score 26 points Sunday. Love's not likely to reach the top 12 of our Week 12 rankings but just might get closer than he would have before Sunday's performance.

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Packers QB Jordan Love completed 21 of 40 passes for a season-high 289 yards with 2 TD and 2 INTs in Week 10 vs. the Steelers. Though he played well enough for fantasy managers to be somewhat happy, Love now ranks tied for first in the NFL with 10 INTs through nine games played. That doesn't hurt his fantasy scoring in most formats as much as it does his real-life team. But it does highlight the erratic play that makes Love difficult to trust in fantasy lineups. Week 11 could be a nice spot for Love against a Chargers defense that ranks as the easiest QB matchup per our adjusted fantasy points allowed. But it's not enough to make him a recommended starter in typically sized leagues.

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Dynasty Overview View QB Dynasty Rankings »

Jordan Love, QB GB
Dynasty MVP 287.1
Position Rank #9 QB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
895
1,460
2,714
Dynasty Write-up
The Aaron Rodgers trade cleared a path for Love to take over as the 2023 starter. Following an up-and-down start, Love's excelled as Green Bay's QB of the future. He's signed through the 2024 season and returns a deep group of young, talented pass-catchers.
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