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Kenny Pickett - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsKenny Pickett's Basic Stats

Kenny Pickett
ADP: 13.6
Bye: 6
Experience: 1 Yr(s)
Age: 25.3
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 220
40 Time: 4.73
Burst Score (Rank): 119.10 (84%)

Kenny Pickett's Weekly Outlook

Week 4 Projections
Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
227 1.4 0.7 13.5 15.3
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
211.6 1.3 0.9 16 14.6

Kenny Pickett's 2023 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#26 Quarterback

234.1 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
13.6 332.6/518 3385 21.1 13.9 68 256.2 5.6

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsKenny Pickett's Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

Pickett didn’t wow anyone during his rookie season. After seizing the starting job from QB Mitchell Trubisky in Week 5, the first-round rookie never had a game with multiple passing TDs and only four games of 200+ passing yards.

But after OC Matt Canada changed up the offensive philosophy following the Steelers’ bye week last year, Pickett began to thrive in a game manager role.

He’s unlikely to light up the stat sheet in 2023, but he should be considered a safe QB2 option for fantasy managers.

What We Learned Last Year
  • Pickett was selected by the Steelers 20th overall in the 2022 NFL Draft.
  • By year’s end, he finished as the QB28 overall with 11.5 points per game.
  • He only managed to finish within the top 20 in fantasy scoring five times as a rookie with only a single QB1 performance (Week 10, QB12 overall).
  • Throughout the season, Pickett had his share of concussion issues. While he only missed one start (Week 14), backup QB Mitchell Trubsiky played in two other contests where Pickett left early due to a head injury.
  • In 13 games played, Pickett averaged 29.9 pass attempts per game. He exceeded 200 passing yards only four times in 2022 and didn’t record a single game with multiple passing TDs.
  • On the year, among 24 QBs with 400+ dropbacks, Pickett ranked:
    • 14th in Pro Football Focus passing grade
    • 23rd in yards per attempt
    • 21st in adjusted completion rate
  • Things seemed to click for Pickett by the end of 2022, however. From Week 12 through the end of the regular season, he ranked first in PFF passing grade among 31 QBs who logged 100+ dropbacks.
  • While it’s not a primary fixture of his game, Pickett added fantasy value as a rusher last season. He recorded three rushing TDs with 235 rushing yards, and finished ninth among QBs in PFF rushing grade (min. 25 carries) in 2022.
What to Expect in 2023
  • Pickett set a pretty low bar for himself to clear in his sophomore season, and he did show signs of improvement to end 2022 that point to optimism.
  • Even so, it’s tough to say how much of a fantasy factor Pickett will be in 2023. The Steelers are expected to be a run-heavy team this year.
  • After a rough start to Pickett’s career as the starter, the team saw a massive shift in offensive philosophy after their Week 9 bye. The run-heavy approach OC Matt Canada oversaw paid dividends:
    • Week 5 - Week 8: 5th in pass rate, 25th in total yards per game, 28th in play success rate, 32nd in drive success rate
    • Week 10 - Week 18: 27th in pass rate, 15th in total yards per game, 5th in play success rate, 3rd in drive success rate
  • There’s little reason to suggest the Steelers will go away from what worked for them down the stretch in 2022. As such, Pickett will be more or less a game manager moving forward.
  • A plethora of talent around him and upgrades to the offensive line (2023 first-round NFL draft pick OT Broderick Jones, free agent signee G Issac Seumalo) should make Pickett a solid QB2 with potential QB1 spot-start value.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Kenny Pickett, QB PIT

12:42am EDT 9/25/23

Kenny Pickett throws multiple TDs

Steelers QB Kenny Pickett completed 16 of 28 attempts for 235 passing yards with 2 TD in Week 3 vs. the Raiders, marking the first multi-passing TD game of his NFL career. Pickett was lucky to have a would-be INT dropped early in the contest, a theme all too familiar for him at this point. One thing that won’t come up in the box score, however, is a 27-yard run from the signal-caller in the second quarter that was negated by a penalty. Pickett only ended the game with 11 rushing yards officially, though he did look pretty good running around. He’ll look to build on his minor successes in Week 4 vs. the Texans.

View all Kenny Pickett Shark Bites »

Steelers QB Kenny Pickett completed 15 of 30 attempts for 222 passing yards with 1 TD and 1 INT in Week 2 vs. the Browns. The second-year starter had a handful of other errant throws that were lucky not to be intercepted by Cleveland defenders throughout Monday's victory. Aside from a 71-yard TD throw to WR George Pickens, this was not a strong performance from Pickett. He’ll be a shaky fantasy option in Week 3 vs. the Raiders.

View all Kenny Pickett Shark Bites »

Steelers QB Kenny Pickett completed 31 passes on 46 attempts for 232 passing yards with 1 TD and 2 INTs in Sunday’s loss vs. the 49ers. He also added 4 rushing yards in the contest, but there are not many good things to say about the second-year player. The Steelers’ offense logged 1 total yard of offense in the first half until their final drive, which saw Pickett find TE Pat Freiermuth for a 3-yard TD before halftime. The team only sustained a drive over 10 plays once in the second half. The Steelers looked like the same old offense that struggled for much of 2022 under OC Matt Canada. They’ll have a chance to rebound next Monday against the Browns in Week 2, though fantasy managers shouldn’t be in any hurry to throw Pickett into their lineups.

View all Kenny Pickett Shark Bites »

NFL insider Adam Caplan passed along some intel on QB Kenny Pickett. Following a conversation with OC Matt Canada, Caplan learned that Pickett’s arm is “way better than it had been,” noting how he’s improved his upper-body strength. Broadly, Canada shared that Pickett’s made a “big jump from Year 1 to Year 2,” per Caplan. Pittsburgh’s expected to emphasize the run in 2023. But given a strong supporting cast, Pickett profiles as an intriguing QB2 inside our QB rankings.

View all Kenny Pickett Shark Bites »

The Steelers morphed into a run-heavy offense over the second half of last season, ranking sixth in rush rate. It sounds like the plan is to continue in that direction this year. “I think our identity was pretty clear the last nine games (of 2022),” OC Matt Canada said. “We ran the ball well, we were physical. You see who we drafted, who we acquired (this offseason). I don’t think there is any question about what our identity is going to be. We want to run the ball, we want to be physical, and we want to be a good team that can throw the football down the field. I think our identity is well known, and we’ll stay where we’re at.” The Steelers spent the 14th overall pick of this spring's draft on OT Broderick Jones and signed free-agent G Isaac Seumalo to bolster the offensive line. They return RBs Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, who will presumably be busy this year. Both guys are fine picks at ADP. The run-heavy plan is worrisome for QB Kenny Pickett, WRs Diontae Johnson and George Pickens, and TE Pat Freiermuth.

View all Najee Harris Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View QB Dynasty Rankings »

Kenny Pickett, QB PIT
Dynasty MVP 220.5
Position Rank #24 QB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
675
1,122
2,119
Dynasty Write-up
Pickett wound up going two rounds ahead of any other QB in the 2022 draft. He proceeded to take over Pittsburgh’s starting job early on, although he never became much of a fantasy spot-starter. Pickett also suffered a pair of concussions as a rookie. Still, he did enough to keep the job for Week 1, 2023. There's an outside shot at a '23 breakout given Pittsburgh's weapons and an upgraded O-line.
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