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Bryce Young - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsBryce Young's Basic Stats

Bryce Young
ADP: 16.10
Bye: 11
Experience: 1
Age: 22.9
Height: 5'10"
Weight: 204
40 Time: 4.63

Bryce Young's Weekly Outlook

Week 1 Projections
Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
213.5 1.16 0.6 16.6 14.4
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
237.3 1.4 0.8 18 16.6

Bryce Young's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#29 Quarterback

228.2 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
16.10 326.4/518.4 3416 18.56 9.6 48 265.6 5.1

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsBryce Young's Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

Young’s rookie season went as bad as it could possibly go.

Getting a new offensive-minded HC and a ton of investment in offensive personnel should help Young progress as a player, but his floor is still very low.

Young is being drafted as an appropriately priced QB3 who will need a lot to go right to be useful in 1-QB leagues.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Young finished as the QB23 in total fantasy points (152.2) and QB29 in points per game (9.5).
  • Young’s 2,783 passing yards ranked 20th among QBs. His 11 TDs ranked 25th.
  • He missed one game (Week 3) due to an ankle sprain suffered in Week 2. Young did not appear on a final injury report for the rest of the season.
  • He had two top-12 finishes. He also had four QB25 or worse finishes.
  • Young’s per-game averages were underwhelming for a #1 overall pick:
    • 59.8% completion rate
    • 179.8 yards
    • 0.69 TDs
    • 0.63 INTs
    • 5.02 Adjusted Yards per Pass Attempt
  • HC Frank Reich was fired 11 games into the season. Young’s per-game production decreased after Reich left the team:
    • 55.9% completion rate
    • 166.7 yards
    • 0.33 TDs
    • 0.33 INTs
    • 5.35 Adjusted Yards per Pass Attempt
  • Among the 45 QBs with 135+ dropbacks, Young ranked:
    • 40th in PFF passing grade (52.6)
    • 29th in Big Time Throw percentage (3.2%)
    • 20th in Turnover Worthy Play percentage (3.3%)
    • 14th in Time to Throw (2.90 seconds)
    • 34th in Completion Percentage Above Expectation (-1.6%)
  • Young played behind a poor O-line that ranked 27th in Pro Football Focus' pass-blocking grades.

What to Expect in 2024

  • Young will play under HC Dave Canales, who will be calling plays for the Panthers' offense.
    • Canales was the OC for the Buccaneers last season.
    • Under Canales, the Buccaneers ranked 19th in the NFL with 568 passes.
  • The Panthers invested in offensive weapons around Young:
    • WR Diontae Johnson (trade)
    • WR Xavier Legette (First Round)
    • RB Jonathon Brooks (Second Round)
    • TE Ja’Tavion Sanders (Fourth Round)
  • The Panthers are expected to take a step forward this year after only winning two games last season. They are fourth in the NFC South and 31st in the league with a 5.5 win total at most sportsbooks.
  • The Panthers have the worst odds in the NFL to win the Super Bowl at +25000 at most sportsbooks.
  • Young enters his second season at 23 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average QB with Young’s career expectation produces 91% of his peak value at age-23.

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Xavier Legette, WR CAR

11:53pm EDT 4/25/24

Xavier Legette lands in Carolina after move up

The Panthers traded up one spot to grab South Carolina WR Xavier Legette with the final pick of Round 1. Legette is one of the toughest evaluations in this year’s WR class. He did next to nothing over his first four college seasons, totaling just 42 catches. That stretch included a 2020 hamstring injury and a 2021 motorcycle accident – all after Legette spent his senior year of high school playing QB. Then he came out of nowhere for a huge 2023 campaign. Legette’s 1,255 receiving yards ranked eighth in the country. He accounted for 37.6% of South Carolina’s receiving yards and 33.3% of the receiving TDs. And he ranked top-16 among 286 qualifying WRs in both yards per route and Pro Football Focus receiving grade. Then Legette smashed the Combine, recording a 4.39-second 40 time and 40-inch vertical at 6’1, 221 pounds to earn a 9.90 Relative Athletic Score. That elite combination of size and speed pops off the tape. Legette can dominate on deep balls and after the catch. He also has a big catch radius and reliable hands. Legette is relatively raw in the route-running department, though, and isn’t the most agile player. It’s fair to wonder how much more room he has to grow considering he turned 23 in January. Legette lands in an offense with decent opportunity, but we wouldn't bet on big target share in 2024. Carolina acquired WR Diontae Johnson to boost a receiving corps that Adam Thielen led in 2023. Check our rookie rankings to see where Xavier Legette settles.

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The Panthers acquired WR Diontae Johnson and a seventh-round pick from the Steelers in exchange for CB Donte Jackson and a sixth-rounder, ESPN's Adam Schefter reports. It's a relatively cheap price to pay for a guy with 332 catches over the past four seasons. Johnson's production has largely been volume-based, though. His 6.7 yards per target over those last four years ranks 67th among 71 WRs with 200+ total targets during that stretch. Johnson didn't rank better 23rd in yards per route in any of those seasons. That said, he immediately becomes the Panthers' clear No. 1 WR. And Carolina figures to throw it a bunch more than the Arthur Smith-led Steelers. QB play is a concern, of course, after Bryce Young's ugly rookie season. But the move is still a win for Johnson's 2024 fantasy value. In Pittsburgh, meanwhile, George Pickens will likely get a crack at No. 1 WR duties. The Steelers will certainly be adding to the WR corps this offseason, though. And Arthur Smith's run-heavy offense will keep Pickens' upside capped.

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The Panthers are making a surprise choice in hiring former Buccaneers OC Dave Canales as HC, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Canales arrives after spending just one year with the Bucs. But that season seems to have revived QB Baker Mayfield's career. Overall, the Bucs ranked just 20th in points, 23rd in total yards, tied for 19th in yards per play, and 20th in offensive DVOA. Before that, Canales spent 13 years coaching offense in Seattle, including three years as WRs coach, five as QBs coach, and two as passing-game coordinator. Canales drew praise for his role in QB Geno Smith's 2022 breakout. His work with Smith and Mayfield almost certainly excited the Panthers, who likely envision Canales as the guy to help QB Bryce Young rebound from a troubling rookie season. Of course, Canales goes from QBs coach for Smith and OC for Mayfield to HC in Carolina. So be careful about assuming too much from his influence. We'll see who Canales brings in to fill out his coaching staff and what the Panthers can add to an offense that sported unimpressive talent in 2023 (and doesn't have a 2024 first-round pick). This seems like a positive move for Young's dynasty outlook, but temper your excitement.

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The Panthers fired GM Scott Fitterer on Monday. It’s not much of a surprise. Owner David Tepper fired HC Frank Reich after a 1-10 start, and the team proceeded to win only one more game. Overall, Carolina went 14-37 across three seasons with Fitterer as GM. A lack of progress from Bryce Young will make this job challenging for any incoming GM. Of course, the Panthers will also be without a Round 1 pick this year after trading up for Young. We’ll monitor potential HC/GM candidates in the coming weeks.

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Coming off a season-high 312 passing yards on a season-high 8.7 yards per attempt in Week 16, Panthers QB Bryce Young crashed back to earth in the Week 17 shutout loss to the Jaguars. He completed 19 of 32 passes (59%) for 112 yards (3.5 YPA), 0 TDs, and one INT. That against a Jacksonville defense that entered the week 29th in passing yards allowed. It was Young's 10th game of the season with fewer than 200 passing yards; his ninth under 6.0 yards per pass attempt; and his seventh without a passing TD. It's been a worrisome rookie season for the first overall pick. He's had little help from his coaching staff, offensive line, or pass catchers. But he's also done very little to elevate the offense. Young will be buried in the 2024 redraft QB rankings. And he's closer to a sell-low than a buy in dynasty.

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Dynasty Overview View QB Dynasty Rankings »

Bryce Young, QB CAR
Dynasty MVP 211.3
Position Rank #46 QB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
626
1,067
2,118
Dynasty Write-up
Young's rookie year was nothing short of a disaster: 2,877 yards, 11 TDs, and 11 INTs across 16 games. We’re encouraged by the signing of HC Dave Canales after seeing him revitalize Baker Mayfield’s career. And Carolina's supporting cast looks much improved with the additions of Diontae Johnson, Xavier Legette, Ja'Tavion Sanders, and Jonathon Brooks.
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