Bottom Line

Young is a pint-sized rookie QB with an iffy crew of pass catchers. It’s certainly fair to assume he’ll at least be inconsistent in 2023, and maybe even that he’ll struggle.

But there’s more rushing upside than you might expect, and that adds sneaky fantasy value.

Throw in that Young will stay deep in QB2 ADP territory, and he’s fine to take shots on as a fantasy backup and potential value option in multi-QB formats and best ball builds.

What We Learned Last Year

• Young might not need WRs. He lost John Metchie (Round 2) and Jameson Williams (Round 1), the dominant top 2 wideouts off his breakthrough 2021 Alabama team. Even No. 3 WR Slade Bolden landed in the NFL as an undrafted free agent in 2022.
• Young simply turned to RB Jahmyr Gibbs as his lead receiver last season and delivered 32 TD passes vs. just 5 INTs.
• He led FBS in Pro Football Focus passing grade, after ranking third in 2021. Young tied for 13th in adjusted completion rate for the second straight year among 172 QBs with 100+ dropbacks.
• He actually managed to increase his average target depth by a yard (9.0 to 10.0) despite losing Jameson Williams and having a RB as his reception leader.
• Young increased his rushing production. He tallied 273 yards (without sack yardage taken out) in 2021, averaging 6.1 per attempt, according to PFF. That climbed to 9.1 last season, with Young totaling 311 yards on the ground.
• He then ran a 4.58-second 40 time at his pro day. Even if you add the 0.05-second penalty for pro day times historically running faster than Combine times, that’s still an 89th-percentile performance among QBs.

What to Expect in 2023

• The rushing yardage looks like a hidden factor for Young’s 2023 fantasy value – and potentially a big one. According to PFF, he collected 313 and 284 yards on scrambles the past two years. Either number would have ranked him seventh among NFL QBs last year. And that was on just 30 and 34 scrambles, in 15 and 12 games.
• Unless he loses multiple games to injury this year, Young should be in for his most games in a season. With NFL pass rushers coming after him and not surrounded by superior talent, he also might need to scramble even more often. There’s a lot more rushing upside here than you’d probably guess from his 162 career official college rushing yards. That number subtracts any yardage lost via sacks, which NFL stats do not.
• For a bit more context: Only 10 NFL QBs reached 284 rushing yards last season; 11 in 2021 and nine in 2020. Of those 30 player seasons, 24 found the QB finishing among the top 12 that year in fantasy points per game.
• We know about the passing upside with Young, and the Panthers clearly believe. They traded D.J. Moore, two first-round picks, and two second-rounders to move up and take him.
• What we don’t know is how good the Panthers’ pass-catching corps will be. Carolina signed WR Adam Thielen shortly after trading Moore and called the veteran a key piece in replacing Moore’s lost production. That positions Thielen as the likely target leader for at least 2023.
  • At 33 (on Aug. 22), he has likely lost at least a step vs. his peak. Posting his two lowest yards-per-catch averages (and yards per target) the past two years stands as evidence.
  • But Thielen did play every game last season for the first time since 2018. He was also on pace to do so in 2020 but lost one game to a positive COVID test.
• The Panthers also signed WR D.J. Chark to a one-year deal in free agency and spent a second-round pick on Jonathan Mingo. Both have plenty of downfield speed but also some inconsistency in their profiles.
• They also paid TE Hayden Hurst $7 million a year on a three-year contract in free agency.
• WR Terrace Marshall is the top returnee, after climbing to 28 catches in his second season.
• Let’s call it a decent group of pass-catchers. And with a Vegas projected win total of 7.5, Carolina should spend plenty of time trailing, which will increase total passing volume.
• The backfield arguably looks worse than the receiving corps, with little behind free-agent import Miles Sanders.