Kimani Vidal - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Vidal is coming off a big senior season at Troy and landed in a nice spot with the Chargers. It’s a run-loving coaching staff and wide-open backfield alongside veterans Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins.

We’re still talking about a sixth-round rookie, though, so don’t overrate Vidal in 2024 fantasy drafts. He’s ideally your RB5 – maybe your RB4 if you went WR-heavy to start.

What We Learned Last Year

• Vidal is coming off a monster senior season at Troy:
  • 297 carries
  • 1,661 rushing yards
  • 14 rushing TDs
• He led the nation in carries and ranked second in rushing yards.
• Vidal ran behind an offensive line that ranked 115th in Pro Football Focus run-blocking grades out of 133 schools.
• Among 157 RBs with 100+ carries, Vidal ranked:
  • 51st in yards after contact per attempt
  • 18th in missed tackles forced per attempt
  • 6th in Pro Football Focus rushing grade
• He led Troy in rushing in all four of his seasons and increased his yardage each year (516, 701, 1,132, and 1,661 yards).
• Vidal also totaled 92 catches for 700 yards and one TD across his four seasons.
• He ranked fifth among 60 qualifying RBs in PFF receiving grade as a freshman but ranked 60th or worse in each of his final three seasons.
• Vidal checked into the Combine at 5’8 and 213 pounds.
• He ran a 4.46-second 40-yard dash, giving him an 88th percentile Speed Score.
• Vidal’s percentile ranks in other athletic tests:
  • Vertical - 83rd
  • Broad - 60th
  • 3-cone - 59th

What to Expect in 2024

• The Chargers selected Vidal in the sixth round of the draft. He was the 16th RB off the board.
• Over the last 10 seasons, Elijah Mitchell is the only sixth-round rookie RB to reach 100 PPR points. Isiah Pacheco is the only seventh-rounder to do it. Ten undrafted rookies have hit 100 PPR points.
• Vidal joins a new-look Chargers backfield alongside fellow 2024 additions Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins.
  • Edwards tallied career highs with 198 carries and 810 rushing yards last year. But he posted career lows in most efficiency metrics and turned 29 in April.
  • Dobbins sports a career 5.8 yards-per-carry average but has been limited to just nine games over the last three seasons. He’s currently working back from a torn Achilles suffered last September. Dobbins signed a one-year, $1.6 million deal with the Chargers with only $50K guaranteed.
• The Chargers have a brand new coaching staff led by HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman. Both guys have long histories of run-heavy offenses. That includes four seasons spent together in San Francisco from 2011 to 2014. Here’s where those teams ranked in rush attempts and rush rate:
  • 2011 - 3rd, 3rd
  • 2012 - 7th, 3rd
  • 2013 - 3rd, 2nd
  • 2014 - 9th, 6th
• It’s worth noting that dual-threat QB Colin Kaepernick started half of the 2012 season and all of the 2013 and 2014 seasons. That certainly skewed the 49ers toward the run.
• Those 49ers RB rooms were not nearly as productive as you’d think. Here’s where those teams ranked in total RB PPR points:
  • 2011 - 20th
  • 2012 - 18th
  • 2013 - 18th
  • 2014 - 29th
• That was largely because the RBs didn’t do much in the passing game. Here’s where the 49ers’ RBs ranked in total receptions:
  • 2011 - 30th
  • 2012 - 25th
  • 2013 - 29th
  • 2014 - 31st
• The 2023 Chargers ranked:
  • 32nd in Pro Football Focus run-blocking grades
  • 30th in adjusted line yards
• The team spent the fifth overall pick of this year’s draft on OT Joe Alt. He ranked second among 278 qualifying OTs in Pro Football Focus’ 2023 run-blocking grades.
• L.A. also signed free-agent Bradley Bozeman, who projects to start at C. He ranked 17th among 32 qualifiers in PFF run-blocking grades last year.