Bottom Line

Thomas struggled in his first year back from an ACL tear. While his environment improved slightly for 2023, we don’t see this offense turning him back into a fantasy streamer.

What We Learned Last Year

• Injuries have stunted Thomas’ progress in recent years.
  • A hamstring strain and an ACL tear cost him 11 games in 2021.
  • Last year, he sat out three games with a calf strain suffered at practice.
• Unsurprisingly, Thomas didn’t post any explosive games in 2022.
  • He topped 50 yards only twice. His longest gain of the season? 27 yards.
  • He maxed out as the TE8 and finished outside the top-12 twelve times.
• Among 26 TEs with 50+ targets, Thomas ranked 26th in yards per catch, 26th in yards per route run, 26th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade, and 19th in catch rate.
• Of course, poor QB play didn’t help. Washington QBs combined for a 62.1% completion rate, a 4.3% TD rate, 6.8 yards per attempt, and a QBR south of 45.0.

What to Expect in 2023

• Thomas is under contract for two more seasons, with a 2023 cap hit of about $8.7 million.
• At May OTAs, Thomas said he believes he got “a little bit of his explosiveness” back, now further removed from ACL surgery.
  • The team showed some faith in him, adding no TEs in free agency or the draft.
• However, HC Ron Rivera talked up TE Cole Turner at OTAs.
  • “He’s had a great spring,” Rivera said. “He’s been here almost the entire offseason on a voluntary basis doing the things that he needs to do and develop. One thing is you’ve seen this, he’s got a really good grasp of the offense so far. He’s still learning it, but he’s learning it quickly and doing the things that we need to have him do to be able to help us go forward.”
• The Commanders welcomed OC Eric Bieniemy, formerly of the Chiefs. We’ve heard no indication of him wanting to feature Thomas.
• Sam Howell looks likely to be the Week 1 starter after making only one appearance in 2022. We’re cautiously optimistic he’ll keep this passing game afloat. But it’s tough to project the fifth-round pick as a difference-maker for Thomas.