Luke Musgrave - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Musgrave brings combines plus athleticism and size with a good QB and seemingly ascending offense. But he could also have a tough time garnering consistent targets, thanks to a loaded offense that includes TE classmate Tucker Kraft. All that should keep Musgrave well into TE2 territory for 2024 drafting. He’s a fine stash in that range, though.

What We Learned Last Year

• Musgrave earned a significant role from the start of his rookie season. His 75% snap share in Week 1 led all Green Bay offensive skill players (besides QB Jordan Love). Musgrave then topped 85% each of the next two weeks to lead the group as well.
• He left Week 4 early, but quickly rebounded to play at least 67% of snaps in every game until lacerating a kidney in Week 11.
• That injury knocked Musgrave out for six regular-season contests. He returned for the finale and playoffs but played less than 20 snaps in each of those three games.
• Through Week 11, Musgrave ranked 22nd among TEs in target share. He also ranked third among Packers in total targets over that span:
  • Romeo Doubs 65
  • Jayden Reed 51
  • Musgrave 45
  • Christian Watson 37
  • Aaron Jones 30
  • Dontayvion Wicks 22
  • AJ Dillon 21
  • Tucker Kraft 7
• Musgrave averaged 4.5 targets, 3.3 catches, and 34.1 yards per game before hurting his kidney. From Week 12 through Week 17 (before Musgrave returned), Kraft supplied 5.0 targets, 3.8 receptions, and 46.8 yards per game.
  • Kraft’s 15.1% target share over that span also beat Musgrave’s 13.6% for his healthy stretch.
  • Of course, it’s worth noting that the later-season interval coincided with Love’s play dramatically improving.
• For the season, Musgrave’s 1.41 yards per route led Kraft (1.13) by a solid margin. Musgrave worked a little deeper downfield than his fellow rookie TE, sporting a 7.4 yards average depth of target to Kraft’s 4.9.
  • Both flashed good run-after-catch ability.
  • Musgrave ranked 17th in yards per route among 45 TEs who saw 30+ targets, according to Pro Football Focus.

What to Expect in 2024

• Musgrave brings plenty of talent, having tested 82nd percentile or better in all these categories at last year’s Combine:
  • 40 time
  • Vertical
  • Broad jump
• His athleticism looks even more impressive when you consider Musgrave stands nearly 6’6, 80th-percentile height for the position.
• Kraft, however, also brings good size and athletic testing. And Green Bay drafted them just a round apart.
• Kraft’s presence looks like the primary hurdle for Musgrave’s 2024 outlook. Did Kraft play well enough in Musgrave’s absence last year to siphon some playing time? Or will Green Bay get back to Musgrave as the clear leader, like he was pre-injury.
  • Kraft might have removed that hurdle, however, by tearing a pectoral muscle while lifting weights in May.
  • HC Matt LaFleur said he expects Kraft back “by training camp, and if not, it should be early on.” We’ll see how the TE progresses.
• Beyond the position, there are plenty of other target challenges. Green Bay had seven players garner 40+ targets last year, with none reaching 100.
• Part of that was the run-pass split. Last year’s Packers ranked 15th in pass attempts but leaned even more toward the run than that reveals.
  • Green Bay ranked 20th in pass rate in neutral situations, according to RBSDM.com, it’s lowest ranking through LaFleur’s five seasons.
  • Things had been trending in that direction, though. Check out his offense’s previous four rankings:
    • 2019: fifth
    • 2020: 10th
    • 2021: 11th
    • 2022: 18th
• Did the downward trend in pass rate come because of Aaron Rodgers’ career winding down and a big transition to a first-time starter? Or should we continue a similar lean going forward?
• Any lean back toward the pass would help total passing volume, and Love’s tremendous second half – plus an intriguing young group of pass-catchers – would seem to support that.
  • But Green Bay also paid up for RB Josh Jacobs in free agency and then drafted RB MarShawn Lloyd in Round 3. So we’ll see.