Tucker Kraft - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Kraft had an intriguing rookie year but will suffer for sharing a roster with Luke Musgrave. That makes Kraft not only a low-upside bet for 2024. He and Musgrave are both under contract through 2026. That makes it tough to get excited about Kraft in any format as more than a handcuff. We’ll see how long his pectoral tear keeps him out.

What We Learned Last Year

• Kraft opened his rookie season not doing a whole lot. He trailed well behind draft classmate Luke Musgrave in playing time and totaled just two targets before Week 10.
• His playing time started to pick up in Week 5, though, and then Musgrave’s Week 11 kidney injury made Kraft a full-timer.
• From Week 12 through the playoffs, Kraft never played less than 80% of the snaps. And he garnered even more work than Musgrave got before going down.
  • Musgrave averaged 4.5 targets, 3.3 catches, and 34.1 yards per game before hurting his kidney. From Week 12 through Week 17 (before Musgrave returned), Kraft supplied 5.0 targets, 3.8 receptions, and 46.8 yards per game.
  • Kraft’s 15.1% target share over that span also beat Musgrave’s 13.6% for his healthy stretch.
  • Of course, Musgrave had Kraft in the mix during his stretch.
• For the season, Kraft trailed Musgrave in Pro Football Focus receiving grade, yards per route, and targets per route.
• The two entered the league with similar size and athleticism and separated by just one round in the draft (Musgrave in the second, Kraft the third).

What to Expect in 2024

• Kraft tore a pectoral muscle lifting weights in May. HC Matt LaFleur said he expects HC Kraft back “by training camp, and if not, it should be early on.”
• That would give the second-year TE time to get ready and acclimated for the season. But it obviously adds a complication and limits Kraft’s physical preparation ahead of training camp.
• Beyond that recovery, Kraft faces role uncertainty. He likely played well enough over the second half. But there’s a reason the Packers drafted Musgrave earlier and played him ahead of Kraft to open last season.
  • Musgrave’s superior performance by efficiency metrics certainly doesn’t hurt his chances of maintaining the position lead.
• Besides the challenge at his position, Kraft will find a crowded Packers offense. He was one of seven Green Bay players to draw at least 40 targets in 2023. None reached 100.
• There’s room for the offense to pass a bit more. Last year produced the lowest rank in neutral pass rate for the Packers since LaFleur arrived. By season, they’ve ranked:
  • 2019: 5th
  • 2020: 10th
  • 2021: 11th
  • 2022: 18th
  • 2023: 20th
• The past two years have featured WR Davante Adams leaving (2022) and then Aaron Rodgers leaving. So it made sense for LaFleur to lean away from the pass a bit.
• Does he lean back in the other direction after a good starting debut from QB Jordan Love and now that his very young pass-catching corps has a year of experience? If so, how much?
  • We’ll see about that. Paying up for RB Josh Jacobs in free agency and then drafting RB MarShawn Lloyd complicates that equation a bit.