Michael Wilson Fantasy Overview

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Wilson enjoyed a breakout 2025, posting career highs with 78 catches, 1,006 yards, and 7 TDs. He finished 20th among WRs in PPR points per game; 24th in non-PPR.

The majority of his damage came with WR Marvin Harrison Jr. out or limited. In eight games with Harrison playing 70+% of Arizona’s offensive snaps, Wilson averaged:

• 4.0 targets (12.0% share)
• 2.3 catches
• 23.4 yards
• 0.13 TDs
• 5.4 PPR points

In the other nine games:

• 10.2 targets
• 6.7 catches
• 91.0 yards
• 0.67 TDs
• 19.8 PPR points

Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba were the only WRs to average more PPR points than Wilson over those nine games.

Efficiency & Regression

Wilson hauled in 61.9% of his targets and averaged 12.9 yards per catch on the season. His 1.59 yards per route ranked 40th among 76 WRs with 50+ targets.

His per-target and per-route efficiency skyrocketed without Harrison.

Eight games with a healthy Harrison:

• 5.9 yards per target
• 0.67 yards per route

Other nine games:

• 8.9 yards per target
• 2.33 yards per route

The yards per route shift is the difference between ranking dead last among 76 qualifiers last year and 12th.

Offensive Context

The 2025 Cardinals were the pass-heaviest offense in the NFL. They ranked first in pass rate and pass attempts, finishing seventh in both passing yards and TDs.

Much of that pass-heaviness came with QB Jacoby Brissett, though. Over the first five games of the season with QB Kyler Murray, Arizona averaged 32.4 passes per game on a 59.1% pass rate. Those marks jumped to 40.6 and 68.6% with Brissett over the final 12.

All nine of Wilson’s games without a healthy Harrison came with Brissett. The Cardinals averaged 41.6 pass attempts across those nine games. That would have led the league by nearly four attempts for the season.

Historical Production & Trends

Wilson totaled 1,113 yards and 7 TDs across his first two NFL seasons. He finished WR53 in PPR points per game in 2023 and WR72 in 2024.

Wilson ranked 55th among 80 qualifiers with 1.36 yards per route as a rookie, but he fell to 75th out of 83 WRs with 1.09 yards per route in Year 2.

Injury History & Durability

Wilson had a pair of foot injuries that required surgery at Stanford in 2020 and 2021. He also suffered an undisclosed season-ending injury in 2022.

His NFL injury history includes shoulder and neck issues in 2023 and a hamstring injury in 2024.

Wilson played all 17 games last year.

Projected Role & Competition

The Cardinals return their top three targets from last year in Wilson, Marvin Harrison, and Trey McBride.

McBride is a good bet to lead Arizona in targets after drawing 28.2% and 26.0% shares the past two seasons.

The Cardinals also spent the third overall pick on RB Jeremiyah Love this spring. He’ll play a big role right away, including in the passing game. Love caught 55 balls and averaged 9.4 yards per catch over his final two seasons at Notre Dame.

The big question is how targets will be split between Wilson and Harrison. Harrison was the clear leader when healthy last year, out-targeting Wilson 59 to 32 in eight games in which he played a snap rate of 70+%.

But Wilson was the better receiver by most metrics, including:

• Yards per route (1.59 to 1.58)
• Pro Football Focus receiving grade (76.4 to 67.6)
• ESPN receiver score (62 to 54)

Expect Wilson’s role to be bigger even when Harrison’s healthy this year. There’s a chance that Wilson leads the WR corps in targets.

Supporting Cast

The Cardinals are in rebuild mode, planning to trot out Jacoby Brissett as their Week 1 starter. Brissett kept the offense decent over the final 12 games of last season. But we’re still talking about a 33-year-old journeyman with 6.6 yards per attempt for his career.

There’s also a chance we see third-round rookie Carson Beck under center at some point this season.

QB play is a concern for Wilson’s 2026 outlook.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

Arizona features a new coaching staff led by HC Mike LaFleur, who is expected to call offensive plays.

LaFleur spent the past three years as Rams OC but did not call plays. He also spent seven seasons working under Kyle Shanahan from 2014 to 2020.

LaFleur’s only play-calling experience came with the Jets in 2021 and 2022. Both teams finished bottom-8 in total yards and points, although it’s tough to pin too much blame on LaFleur when his QBs were Zach Wilson, Mike White, and Joe Flacco.

LaFleur’s offenses were relatively balanced in terms of run/pass split, registering pass rates over expected of +3.9% and -0.6%.

Considering LaFleur’s history, the team’s personnel, and the likelihood this won’t be a good team, expect the Cardinals to run a balanced to pass-leaning offense. Don’t expect them to throw anywhere near as much as they did last year.

Paths to Ceiling

Wilson outplayed Harrison last year, so there’s a chance he emerges as Arizona’s No. 1 WR and No. 2 target this season.

If that happens, and Brissett plays like he did last year, Wilson could be a weekly WR3 in fantasy.

Risk Factors

Pedigree alone could keep Harrison ahead of Wilson in opportunities. That would leave Wilson third or maybe even fourth in targets, behind Harrison, McBride, and potentially Love.

There’s also implosion potential with an offense that will be quarterbacked by some combination of Brissett and rookie Carson Beck.