Mike Evans - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Evans has been the model of consistency over his NFL career with 10 straight 1,000-yard seasons.

He continued that consistency last season and will have Baker Mayfield throwing him the ball again in 2024. The Buccaneers did not add any significant veteran contributors and are expected to take a step back as they install a new offense yet again.

Entering the season at 31 years old, Evans is unlikely to hold his peak value but should be a solid WR2 to anchor a fantasy team.

What We Learned Last Year

• Evans posted a season-long stat line of 79 catches for 1,255 yards and 13 on 136 targets.
• He posted his 10th straight 1,000-yard season, the second-longest streak in NFL history behind only Jerry Rice.
• His per-game numbers were in line with his career averages:
  • 8.00 targets (8.58)
  • 4.65 receptions (4.95)
  • 73.8 yards (75.8)
  • 0.76 TDs (0.61)
• Evans ranked as the WR7 in PPR fantasy points and WR11 in points per game.
• He missed no games due to injury.
• Evans had seven top-12 finishes. He had four WR37 or worse finishes.
• His target share (24.5%) was the highest of his career.
• Among 89 WRs with 45+ targets, Evans ranked:
  • 16th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
  • 11th in yards per route run (2.33)
  • 8th in average target depth (15.1)
  • 7th in percentage of team air yards (41.3%)

What to Expect in 2024

• Evans enters his third season under HC Todd Bowles
• New OC Liam Coen spent last year as the Kentucky OC after coordinating the Rams in 2022.
  • In 2022, the Rams ranked 24th with 531 pass attempts.
• The Buccaneers are expected to take a slight step backward. They are tied for second in the NFC South with a 7.5 win total at most sportsbooks.
• The Buccaneers have the 21st-highest odds to win the Super Bowl at +5500 on most sportsbooks, second-best in the division.
• Evans enters his 10th season at 31 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average WR with Evan’s career produces at 90% of his peak value at age-31.