Bottom Line

Evans has continuously produced, through QB changes.

But he’s getting about the biggest possible downgrade this season, from arguably the greatest QB of all time to the “winner” between Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask.

And Evans’ target shares have stunk the past three years.

Although he’ll always be a high-ceiling player, it’s tough to bet on volume or efficiency favoring Evans this season. It’s OK to take shots on him as a WR3. But don’t overrate the name.

What We Learned Last Year

• Evans topped 1,000 receiving yards for the ninth straight season.
• His 5.1 receptions per game marked an increase over the first two Tom Brady seasons, as did his yards per game.
• Evans’ catch rate dipped vs. 2020 and 2021, but his 60.6% still came in higher than his career rate of 57.6%.
• He posted the three shortest average target depths of his career over the three seasons with Brady, though last year’s 14.1 marked a rebound from 2021’s career low of 13.1.
• Evans’ production was down through most of the year. He was averaging just 4.8 catches and 65.5 yards per game before a monster Week 17.
  • That 10-catch, 207-yard, 3-TD performance accounted for 21.6% of his total PPR points for the season.
  • An 8-103-2 receiving line against the Chiefs in Week 4 accounted for another 13.4%.
  • Evans finished those weeks first and second, respectively, among fantasy WRs. He posted three other top-16 finishes. Only one other week found him inside the top 25. Evans finished his other nine games 34th or lower, including four outside the top 50.
• Evans has always been a volatile weekly scorer, but the table below shows fewer high-end scores than in the previous two Brady seasons:
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• Evans’ metrics don’t indicate any personal drop-off. His Pro Football Focus receiving grade actually improved slightly last year vs. the previous two seasons. His yards per route have finished in the 1.74-1.77 range each of the past three years. He ranked seventh among WRs in air yards.

What to Expect in 2023

• The Buccaneers are probably about to pass a whole lot less.
• They led the league in pass attempts each of the past two seasons. They ranked sixth in 2020, fourth in 2019 and 2018, and third in 2017.
• New OC Dave Canales is expected to have an “added emphasis on establishing the run.” Canales said in the spring, “The marriage of the run and pass, that is our identity.” He was specifically referring to not giving away what’s coming with the formation. But Tampa will obviously need to run at a rate much higher than league-low if it wants to keep the defense guessing about what’s coming.
• A drop in passing volume adds risk to Evans, who ranked just 43rd among WRs in target share last season. He ranked an even worse 60th in 2021; 48th in 2020.
• The target shares were better before Brady. His ADOTs were also deeper, and his yards per route were stronger before Brady as well.
• What among those numbers can we expect to rebound with Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask throwing passes?
• Trask is a total unknown. Mayfield has set new lows in PFF passing grade each of the past two years.