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Mike Evans - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsMike Evans's Basic Stats

Mike Evans
ADP: 3.5
Bye: 11
Experience: 10
Age: 30.9
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 231
40 Time: 4.53
Speed Score: 115.70

SPARQx (Rank): 108.00 (63%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.34 (39%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.33 (94%)

Mike Evans's Weekly Outlook

Week 1 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.4 67.6 0.6 10.4
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.2 60.2 0.5 8.8

Mike Evans's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#10 Wide Receiver

221.4 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
3.5 66 1014 9 0 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsMike Evans's Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

Evans has been the model of consistency over his NFL career with 10 straight 1,000-yard seasons.

He continued that consistency last season and will have Baker Mayfield throwing him the ball again in 2024. The Buccaneers did not add any significant veteran contributors and are expected to take a step back as they install a new offense yet again.

Entering the season at 31 years old, Evans is unlikely to hold his peak value but should be a solid WR2 to anchor a fantasy team.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Evans posted a season-long stat line of 79 catches for 1,255 yards and 13 on 136 targets.
  • He posted his 10th straight 1,000-yard season, the second-longest streak in NFL history behind only Jerry Rice.
  • His per-game numbers were in line with his career averages:
    • 8.00 targets (8.58)
    • 4.65 receptions (4.95)
    • 73.8 yards (75.8)
    • 0.76 TDs (0.61)
  • Evans ranked as the WR7 in PPR fantasy points and WR11 in points per game.
  • He missed no games due to injury.
  • Evans had seven top-12 finishes. He had four WR37 or worse finishes.
  • His target share (24.5%) was the highest of his career.
  • Among 89 WRs with 45+ targets, Evans ranked:
    • 16th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
    • 11th in yards per route run (2.33)
    • 8th in average target depth (15.1)
    • 7th in percentage of team air yards (41.3%)

What to Expect in 2024

  • Evans enters his third season under HC Todd Bowles
  • New OC Liam Coen spent last year as the Kentucky OC after coordinating the Rams in 2022.
    • In 2022, the Rams ranked 24th with 531 pass attempts.
  • The Buccaneers are expected to take a slight step backward. They are tied for second in the NFC South with a 7.5 win total at most sportsbooks.
  • The Buccaneers have the 21st-highest odds to win the Super Bowl at +5500 on most sportsbooks, second-best in the division.
  • Evans enters his 10th season at 31 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average WR with Evan’s career produces at 90% of his peak value at age-31.

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Mike Evans, WR TB

9:13am EST 3/4/24

Mike Evans gets two more years in Tampa

The Buccaneers have agreed to a two-year extension with WR Mike Evans. ESPN's Adam Schefter reports it'll pay $52 million over the span, including $35 million in guarantees. This always seemed the most likely path, though some recent reports suggested talks were breaking down and Evans might reach free agency. He'll now stay in Tampa Bay for his age-31 and age-32 seasons. Evans has eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards in each of his 10 Bucs seasons. His 2023 felt like a rebound, but that was mostly because of bad TD luck in 2022. Evans did lead the league with 13 TD catches in 2023, his third season among the past four with at least 13 scores. His 15.9 yards per catch marked his highest average since 2019 and beat his career average. We'll see how Tampa's QB situation shakes out, with Baker Mayfield headed for free agency. But betting against Evans hasn't worked very well to date.

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ESPN's Adam Schefter reports that the Buccaneers would owe WR Mike Evans $28.4 million for 2024 if they use the franchise tag to retain him. That's significantly higher than the league-wide WR tag salary of $21.6 million because Evans carried a $23.7 million cap hit in 2023. This obviously doesn't keep Tampa Bay from signing Evans to a longer-term extension ahead of free agency. And it might not even keep the Bucs from tagging Evans. Spotrac projects the team to be more than $37 million under the 2024 even with the existing $12.2 million hit of Evans' voided 2024. The team could also tag Evans and then rescind the tag if he doesn't sign the tender and the two sides fail to work out a longer deal. We're betting for now that the 31-year-old (come Aug. 21) sticks around. But that's no sure thing.

Update: Bleacher Report's Jordan Schultz says his "understanding is Evans is trending toward becoming a free agent, barring an unexpected change in discussions."

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Bucs QB Baker Mayfield (ankle, ribs) is listed as questionable for Monday night's playoff game vs. the Eagles. He got in limited practices on Friday and Saturday. We'd be surprised if Mayfield did not play on Monday, but we'll continue to keep you updated on his status. QB Kyle Trask is Mayfield's backup.

View all Baker Mayfield Shark Bites »

Buccaneers WR Mike Evans caught just three of a team-high 8 targets for 22 yards in Sunday's win over the Panthers. Tampa Bay managed just 137 passing yards and 9 points for the game, so there wasn't much offense for anyone. But the Bucs did close out the NFC South title. You can check our updated NFL playoff rankings this week to see where Evans lands if you're continuing the fantasy football season. Beyond that, though, Evans faces free agency this March ahead of his age-31 campaign. Spotrac projects the Buccaneers to carry about $48 million in cap space for 2024, so there could be room to re-sign the vet. But the team appeared to decide against extending Evans at the beginning of this season. We'd bet right now on Evans leaving town. His performance this year has shown Evans can still play. He averaged his most yards per target (9.2) since 2020 and most yards per catch since 2019. The uncertainty will add risk to Evans in early best ball drafting. But there could also be opportunity in those drafts and the dynasty trade market if uncertainty pushes Evans' price down. He'll be worth a look wherever he's valued as a mid-to-low WR3.

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Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin drew a team-high 11 targets in Sunday's win over the Jaguars. He caught six for 78 yards. Godwin trailed WR Mike Evans in receptions and yards and watched Evans catch both of the team's passing TDs. This marked the third straight game in which Godwin drew 11+ targets and led the team. He's a comfy PPR option for a Week 17 home date with the Saints.

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Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Mike Evans, WR TB
Dynasty MVP 93.2
Position Rank #71 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
319
482
770
Dynasty Write-up
Evans crushed expectations alongside new QB Baker Mayfield. Scoring 13 TDs, Evans hit 1,000 yards for the tenth straight season. The almost 31-year-old re-signed with Tampa Bay in free agency, giving him a chance to finish his career with the Bucs.
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