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Mike Evans - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsMike Evans's Basic Stats

Mike Evans
ADP: 3.1
Bye: 11
Experience: 8 Yr(s)
Age: 29.1
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 231
40 Time: 4.53
Speed Score: 115.70
SPARQx (Rank): 108.00 (62%)
Burst Score (Rank): 124.20 (67%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.34 (37%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.36 (95%)

Mike Evans's Weekly Outlook

Week 4 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.5 63.3 0.6 9.9
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.8 67.4 0.5 9.7

Mike Evans's 2022 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#8 Wide Receiver

171.3 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
3.1 77 1078.6 10.8 2.7 0.7

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsMike Evans's Preseason Player Analysis

View WR Fantasy Rankings »

What You Need to Know:

  • Evans’ 2021 target share fell right in line with his 2020 rate. He garnered 17.7% in his 18 games, vs. 17.6% in such games in 2020.
  • In 13 shared contests with Chris Godwin, Evans garnered 17.6% vs. Godwin’s 21.3%. Godwin out-targeted Evans 8 times in those 13 games. Evans outscored Godwin in PPR points 7 times.
  • Evans’ 2 seasons with Tom Brady have produced the 2 best TD rates of his career. Among the top 100 PPR wideouts from each season, Evans finished 4th in 2021 TD rate and 5th in 2020.
  • He has always fared above average at scoring TDs. Evans sits tied for 36th all-time in career TDs, while ranking just 85th in receptions. According to Pro Football Focus, he has tied for 6th and 10th in the league in end-zone targets the past 2 years, and ranked 4th and 1st in TDs on such plays.
  • Brady has led the league in pass attempts from inside the 10-yard line each of the past 2 years, according to Pro Football Reference.
  • Evans has produced the 2nd- and 3rd-lowest yards per route run rates of his career with Brady. The main culprit there has been 2 straight drops in average depth of target. Evans has set a career low in that category each year.
  • His yards per catch have fallen off 3.0+ vs. the final 2 pre-Brady seasons. Evans has posted the 2 best catch rates of his career the past 2 seasons, however, each more than 7 percentage points ahead of his 2019 rate and 6.9+ percentage points ahead of his career rate.
  • Evans has delivered the 3rd- and 4th-largest yards per target rates of his career those 2 seasons.
  • Evans got in 3 full games after Godwin’s injury last year and drew at least 25.9% target share in each of them. Each of those 3 games also came without Antonio Brown. Tampa Bay has since imported Russell Gage via free agency.
  • When Evans, Godwin and Brown were all on the field in 2020, the target distribution went: Evans 19.5%, Godwin 18.9%, Brown 15.7%.
  • The Buccaneers ran the league’s most pass-heavy offense in 2021, a year after ranking 3rd most pass-heavy.


Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Evans has been hyper-efficient in terms of catch rate and TD production through 2 seasons with Brady. There’s some regression potential to his TD numbers. But Tom Brady’s league-high passing volume near the goal line plus Evans’ skill set put the veteran WR in good position to continue his well above-average production in the end zone. There’s room for a target-share boost if Chris Godwin is slow to return from his Week 15 double-ligament tear. But Russell Gage’s arrival should cap that ceiling lower than what we saw at the end of 2021. Ultimately, Evans figures to remain a volatile weekly play with as high a weekly ceiling as just about any WR. Combining him with 1-2 more stable target collectors in lineup-setting formats would be a good idea.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Russell Gage, WR TB

6:30am EDT 9/26/22

Huge outing for Gage

Playing through a tweaked hamstring, Bucs WR Russell Gage recorded 12 catches, 87 yards and 1 score. The veteran entered Sunday as questionable on the injury report with a hamstring. Tampa Bay, of course, played without Chris Godwin (hamstring), Mike Evans (suspension) and Julio Jones (knee), but it’s still impressive that Gage garnered a 31% target share. Cameron Brate and Leonard Fournette were closest at 15% apiece. Look past Gage’s 3rd-quarter fumble, and this outing couldn't have gone much better. We'll see on the Bucs’ injury situation, but Week 4 turns up an intriguing home matchup with Kansas City.

View all Russell Gage Shark Bites »

With Chris Godwin and Julio Jones inactive Sunday, the Buccaneers turned to WRs Scotty Miller (8), Russell Gage (6) and Breshad Perriman (5) as the top 3 in targets. Gage caught 5 balls for 28 yards, increasing his usage vs. Week 1. Miller and Perriman caught just 3 balls apiece, with Perriman's 28-yard TD the highlight among them. Mike Evans got ejected for fighting after a 3-61 receiving line on 4 targets, and the league has suspended him for 1 game. Barring a successful appeal, Tampa Bay might need to lean on the same pack in Week 3 against Green Bay. We'll see about Julio Jones' health as well.

View all Russell Gage Shark Bites »

Bucs WR Mike Evans has been suspended 1 game for his role in Sunday's fight with the Saints, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Evans is considered a repeat offender after getting ejected from a game and suspended for fighting back in 2017. We'll see if Evans appeals this ruling, but fantasy owners need to plan on being without him in Week 3 for now. We'll see if WRs Julio Jones (knee) and/or Chris Godwin (hamstring) can make it back for Sunday's game vs. the Packers. If not, the Bucs will be down to WRs Russell Gage, Breshad Perriman and Scotty Miller.

View all Mike Evans Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Mike Evans, WR TB
Dynasty MVP 126.4
Position Rank #36 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
457
661
946
Dynasty Write-up
Tom Brady's unretirement removed the biggest question facing the Tampa Bay offense this offseason. Evans' high-level production predated Brady, though, and should continue beyond him (assuming Brady retires before Evans does). The wideout has yet to dip below 1,000 yards in 8 seasons and has scored on 12.4% of career receptions. Evans heads into his age-29 season with 2 years left on his current contract.
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