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Mike Evans - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsMike Evans's Basic Stats

Mike Evans
ADP: 7.4
Bye: 5
Experience: 9 Yr(s)
Age: 30.1
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 231
40 Time: 4.53
Speed Score: 115.70
SPARQx (Rank): 108.00 (62%)
Burst Score (Rank): 124.20 (67%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.34 (37%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.36 (95%)

Mike Evans's Weekly Outlook

Week 3 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.8 66.7 0.5 9.7
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.7 62.2 0.5 9.2

Mike Evans's 2023 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#13 Wide Receiver

149.8 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
7.4 72.3 1023.6 7.9 2.6 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsMike Evans's Preseason Player Analysis

View WR Fantasy Rankings »
Bottom Line

Evans has continuously produced, through QB changes.

But he’s getting about the biggest possible downgrade this season, from arguably the greatest QB of all time to the “winner” between Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask.

And Evans’ target shares have stunk the past three years.

Although he’ll always be a high-ceiling player, it’s tough to bet on volume or efficiency favoring Evans this season. It’s OK to take shots on him as a WR3. But don’t overrate the name.

What We Learned Last Year
  • Evans topped 1,000 receiving yards for the ninth straight season.
  • His 5.1 receptions per game marked an increase over the first two Tom Brady seasons, as did his yards per game.
  • Evans’ catch rate dipped vs. 2020 and 2021, but his 60.6% still came in higher than his career rate of 57.6%.
  • He posted the three shortest average target depths of his career over the three seasons with Brady, though last year’s 14.1 marked a rebound from 2021’s career low of 13.1.
  • Evans’ production was down through most of the year. He was averaging just 4.8 catches and 65.5 yards per game before a monster Week 17.
    • That 10-catch, 207-yard, 3-TD performance accounted for 21.6% of his total PPR points for the season.
    • An 8-103-2 receiving line against the Chiefs in Week 4 accounted for another 13.4%.
    • Evans finished those weeks first and second, respectively, among fantasy WRs. He posted three other top-16 finishes. Only one other week found him inside the top 25. Evans finished his other nine games 34th or lower, including four outside the top 50.
  • Evans has always been a volatile weekly scorer, but the table below shows fewer high-end scores than in the previous two Brady seasons:
  • Evans’ metrics don’t indicate any personal drop-off. His Pro Football Focus receiving grade actually improved slightly last year vs. the previous two seasons. His yards per route have finished in the 1.74-1.77 range each of the past three years. He ranked seventh among WRs in air yards.
What to Expect in 2023
  • The Buccaneers are probably about to pass a whole lot less.
  • They led the league in pass attempts each of the past two seasons. They ranked sixth in 2020, fourth in 2019 and 2018, and third in 2017.
  • New OC Dave Canales is expected to have an “added emphasis on establishing the run.” Canales said in the spring, “The marriage of the run and pass, that is our identity.” He was specifically referring to not giving away what’s coming with the formation. But Tampa will obviously need to run at a rate much higher than league-low if it wants to keep the defense guessing about what’s coming.
  • A drop in passing volume adds risk to Evans, who ranked just 43rd among WRs in target share last season. He ranked an even worse 60th in 2021; 48th in 2020.
  • The target shares were better before Brady. His ADOTs were also deeper, and his yards per route were stronger before Brady as well.
  • What among those numbers can we expect to rebound with Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask throwing passes?
  • Trask is a total unknown. Mayfield has set new lows in PFF passing grade each of the past two years.

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Mike Evans, WR TB

5:10pm EDT 9/17/23

Mike Evans has big day to lead Bucs

Buccaneers WR Mike Evans racked up 171 yards and caught the team's lone TD pass in Sunday's win over the Bears. Evans tied WR Chris Godwin for the target lead with eight, catching six of those. Godwin posted a 5-58 receiving line. TE Cade Otton added 6 receptions for 41 yards on 6 targets. The Bucs host Philly in Week 3, an opponent they're likely to trail and a defense with multiple injuries across the starting secondary. Expect Evans and Godwin to land well inside starter territory in our Week 3 rankings.

View all Mike Evans Shark Bites »

Bucs WR Mike Evans led the team with 10 targets, 6 grabs, and 66 yards in the opener. He scored one of Baker Mayfield’s two TDs on a 28-yard downfield pass. The Vikings matchup looked favorable on paper, and Evans delivered with 18.6 PPR points, a number he hit only three times in 2022. Recent reports indicate Evans will likely play elsewhere in 2024. But for now, fantasy owners should continue treating him as a solid WR3. Next up is another favorable matchup (vs. Chicago).

View all Mike Evans Shark Bites »

ESPN's Jeremy Fowler confirms that Bucs WR Russell Gage will miss the entire 2023 season with the knee injury he suffered in Wednesday's practice. Gage was locked into Tampa's No. 3 WR job before this injury. The Bucs are now left with WRs Trey Palmer, Deven Thompkins, David Moore, and Rakim Jarrett to battle for that job. Palmer is an intriguing rookie and might be worth a look near the very end of best-ball drafts. Gage's injury should mean extra targets for WR Chris Godwin, WR Mike Evans, RB Rachaad White, and TE Cade Otton. We've adjusted all the Bucs in the 2023 fantasy football rankings.

Update: Gage suffered a ruptured right patellar tendon.

View all Russell Gage Shark Bites »

You probably already know that Buccaneers WR Mike Evans got a large fantasy boost from his monster Week 17 outing last year: 10 catches, 207 yards, 3 TDs. That game accounted for 21.6% of his PPR scoring for the season. And his 8-103-2 line in Week 4 against the Chiefs accounted for another 13.4%. Evans' downfield nature has always made him a volatile weekly scorer, but last year delivered fewer of the high-end fantasy lines. Evans posted four top-12 weeks in 2020, five in 2021, and then just three last year. He followed eight top-24 weeks in 2020 with 10 in 2021 but only five last season. And now comes a QB downgrade from Tom Brady to whomever wins the Baker Mayfield-Kyle Trask showdown. Even at Evans' depressed ADP, it has been tough to like him in drafts. See where he sits in our 2023 fantasy football rankings, and read more about why you should be wary.

View all Mike Evans Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Mike Evans, WR TB
Dynasty MVP 89.9
Position Rank #45 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
320
478
673
Dynasty Write-up
Evans’ fantasy value dipped in 2022, due in part to a declining Tom Brady. Turning 30 in August, Evans will now break in a new QB -- likely Baker Mayfield.
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