% chance misses at least 2 quarters
1- 17√1-% Inj/Season
Ability to produce despire relatively minor injuries. 5 being most durable
Injury analysis powered by Draft Sharks Injury Index, formerly
|Sep 28, 2014||NFL||Inguinal Groin Pull Grade 1||Evans left Week 4 with a groin injury and missed the following game.|
|Nov 3, 2016||NFL||Head Cranial Concussion Grade 1||Evans suffered a concussion in Week 9 action but didn't miss any further time.|
|Nov 1, 2015||NFL||Inguinal Groin Pull Grade 1||Evans tweaked his groin but missed no game time.|
|Nov 1, 2015||NFL||Abdomen Muscle Sprain/Pull Unspecified Grade 1||Evans strained an oblique muscle but didn't miss any time.|
|Aug 24, 2015||NFL||Thigh Hamstring Sprain/Pull Unspecified Grade 1||Evans sat out the final 2 preseason games and then the regular-season opener with a hamstring strain.|
|Dec 8, 2019||NFL||Thigh Hamstring Sprain/Pull Unspecified Grade 1||Evans suffered the hamstring injury in Week 14 game vs. the Colts. He missed the remainder of the season|
|Sep 9, 2020||NFL||Thigh Hamstring Strain Grade 2||Evans appeared on the Buccaneers injury report with a hamstring injury. ahead of the Week 1 showdown with Saints. He was active for the game against the Saints|
|Oct 4, 2020||NFL||Pedal Ankle Sprain Grade 2||Evans suffered a right ankle sprain during Week 4's win over the Chargers. He was able to finish the game and was available for the next game|
What You Need to Know:
-Evans’ remarkably consistent run continued in 2020. He slashed 109/70/1,006/13, giving him 1,000+ yards in 7 straight seasons. The 13 scores marked a career high.
-Evans left some meat on the bone: A 10.3% drop rate marked the 2nd highest total of his career.
-Still, getting Tom Brady in the lineup helped produce a 62.3% catch rate — his 2nd best tally. That’s despite heavy usage as a downfield threat (14.1 average depth of target).
-Evans also benefited from a pass-heavy offense. Tampa Bay ranked 3rd in pass rate (62.9%); Brady ranked 2nd in raw attempts (610).
-Evans was a major red zone factor. His 18 RZ targets ranked 4th most among WRs. He saw 23.1% of the team’s total RZ targets — 6th most among WRs.
-On a macro level, Evans benefited from 4 missed games from Chris Godwin. Evans chalked up 7-104-1 (Panthers), 7-122-1 (Chargers), 5-41-1 (Bears) and 5-55-1 (Giants) in those 4.
-Antonio Brown joined the team at midseason. His arrival didn’t crush Evans’ fantasy stock, though. He ranked as the WR19 from Weeks 1-8 (without AB); the WR11 from Weeks 9-17 (with AB).
-Evans, 28, returns for his 8th season in Tampa Bay with the same exact supporting cast. Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski signed 1-year deals over the offseason.
-Brady showed no obvious signs of decline last year. His YPA, QBR and QB rating all ranked top-12 league-wide.
-Brady also chucked ~15% of his targets 20+ air yards — the 2nd highest rate among 36 QBs with 200+ attempts. Key for Evans’ value.
Draft Sharks Bottom Line
Evans has been among the most productive WRs league-wide since his rookie season (2014). Over the past 7 seasons, he ranks 9th among WRs in catches, 3rd in yards and 3rd in TDs. He’s missed just 7 games over that stretch.
Such a loaded supporting cast does put a lid on his 2021 upside. But if the Bucs remain extremely pass heavy, fantasy owners can live with a fringe WR1 ceiling. He’s currently coming off the board around WR16.
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