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Miles Sanders - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsMiles Sanders's Basic Stats

Miles Sanders
ADP: N/A
Bye: 7
Experience: 4 Yr(s)
Age: 26.6
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 211
40 Time: 4.49
SPARQx (Rank): 120.30 (78%)
Burst Score (Rank): 123.20 (76%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.08 (85%)
Three Cone Drill (Rank): 6.89

Miles Sanders's Weekly Outlook

Week 13 Projections
Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
30.4 0.2 1.1 6.9 0 4.7
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
28.2 0.2 2 12.6 0.1 6

Miles Sanders's 2023 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#52 Running Back

96.1 Projected Points

ADP Rush Atts Rush Yds Rush TDs 100 Fum Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs
Not Available 224.6 450.5 3.6 1 1 31.2 200.9 1.9

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsMiles Sanders's Preseason Player Analysis

View RB Fantasy Rankings »
Bottom Line

Despite injury and workload issues across four years in Philly, Sanders has finished three of his four pro seasons inside the top 22 in PPR points per game.

In Carolina, he’s clearly headed for at least as big a rushing role as last season and a rebound in receiving opportunities.

Running behind an underrated line, Sanders should crack the top 20 RBs in fantasy points per game pretty easily.

How high his ceiling goes will depend on how good the Panthers are and just how much receiving he can recapture.

What We Learned Last Year
  • If you simply dismiss a player as injury prone, then you’re setting yourself up to miss his healthiest season.
  • Sanders played in every 2022 game, and it was actually the second time he had done so in his four-year career to date. His 15.2 carries per game beat his previous high by 1.5. His 11 rushing scores ranked seventh among all RBs, despite ranking second on his own team (behind Jalen Hurts’ 13).
  • Sanders ranked third among RBs in Football Outsiders’ rushing DYAR and sixth in rushing DVOA. In each category, his ranking has improved each of the past three seasons.
  • That’s also true for FO’s rushing success rate, which measures a RB’s effectiveness at gaining what’s needed in a given situation. Sanders finished 13th, fifth, and third in that category the past three years, with rates of 55% or better each time.
  • Running behind a strong Eagles O-line certainly helped. Carolina isn’t bad in that area either, though. The Panthers ranked ninth in FO’s adjusted line yards last season, not far behind Philly (sixth).
  • Sanders’ receptions per game and yards per catch have fallen every year.
    • He started his career with a very promising 50 catches (3.1 per game) at 10.2 yards per reception, and three TDs. That was the last time Sanders scored on a reception.
    • The past three years have produced 2.3, 2.2, and then 1.2 receptions per game.
    • The yards per catch: 7.0, 6.1, and 3.9. That’s pretty bad.
What to Expect in 2023
  • The Panthers gave Sanders the biggest RB contract on the open market by total money ($25 million), guaranteed money ($13 million), and annual average ($6.25 million).
  • HC Frank Reich’s time on the Eagles staff did not overlap with Sanders’. But Sanders played the past two years under Nick Sirianni, who arrived in Philly off three years as Reich’s OC – as well as previous time with Reich on the Chargers’ staff. New Panthers RBs coach and assistant HC Duce Staley served the same role with the Eagles over Sanders’ first two pro seasons. It’s fair to assume Carolina knows exactly what it’s getting.
  • Here’s what Reich said during June OTAs: “Miles is a three-down back and he can do a little bit of everything. He’s explosive, he’s fast and he has good vision and patience. Really smart. And on third down, when he has to block, he’s a willing blocker.”
  • Sanders has also indicated that reuniting with Staley played a part in his move to Carolina, calling him someone who “knows what I can really do.”
  • It seems pretty clear that we can expect a rebound in at least receiving opportunities for Sanders this season. With little behind him on the depth chart and a rookie QB, Sanders could remain inefficient as a receiver and still add big fantasy value in that area vs. his recent campaigns.
  • About that depth chart:
    • Chuba Hubbard underwhelmed as a 2021 rookie, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry and 7.0 per catch. Carolina gave him the ball even less last season, despite trading Christian McCaffrey away midyear. Hubbard fell from 10.1 carries and 1.5 receptions per game to 6.3 and 0.9. D’Onta Foreman beat him by 5.6 carries per game. And the Panthers loved Foreman so much that they let him leave for Chicago after the season on a modest one-year contract.
    • Raheem Blackshear and Spencer Brown currently sit behind Hubbard. They combined for 44 touches in last year’s Panthers backfield.
  • Don’t be shocked if this team adds a RB before the season starts. Even in that case, though, Sanders appears likely to see the biggest touch count of his career.

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Bryce Young, QB CAR

10:08am EST 11/27/23

Panthers fire Frank Reich

The Panthers fired HC Frank Reich. He didn't even make it a full season in Carolina, going 1-10 in his 11 games. An offensive-minded coach, Reich's Panthers offense sits 30th in yards per game, 29th in points per game, and 31st in offensive DVOA. A poor group of skill-position players didn't help the cause, but Reich did very little to elevate the offense or rookie QB Bryce Young. Special teams coordinator Chris Tabor will finish out the season as interim HC, while OC Thomas Brown takes back over as play-caller. We'll see if the moves lead to any changes in player usage, but don't expect the offense to be noticeably better.

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The Panthers' backfield returned to a proper committee in Week 11 vs. the Cowboys. RB Miles Sanders handled a team-leading 11 carries for 50 rushing yards on a 45.7% snap share, all highs since Week 4 vs. the Vikings. His teammate Chuba Hubbard stayed active in the contest, tallying 65 total yards on 12 touches, but saw his lowest share of the RB carries (52.3%) over his last four games. Perhaps this is the beginning of Sanders returning to good health after being marred by groin and shoulder injuries to open 2023. Hubbard's rise in the first place can be primarily attributed to simply being the healthier of the two for a while, so it'll be worth monitoring this usage next week vs. the Titans. For now, fantasy managers should see if Sanders was dropped to the waiver wire. He might be worth scooping.

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Week 10’s showdown vs. the Bears showed fantasy managers that Panthers RB Miles Sanders is probably safe to drop onto the waiver wire in shallow leagues. The veteran accumulated 10 total yards on 4 touches. Sanders played on just 38.3% of the Panthers’ offense snaps, actually lost yardage as a runner (2 carries, -5 yards), and generally just hasn’t been helpful since Week 3. Fellow RB Chuba Hubbard didn’t perform much better in the contest (11 touches, 39 total yards), though he continues to win the touch battle in this backfield. Hubbard will be the preferred runner in Carolina again in Week 11. However, he’ll have a tough time posting more than flex-level numbers against a Cowboys’ defense that ranks as the seventh-toughest RB matchup per our adjusted fantasy points allowed.

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Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard out-touched teammate Miles Sanders 17 to 2 in Week 8 vs. the Texans. The veteran Sanders received 2 carries in the contest, only to be shut out completely in the fantasy box score. Hubbard, on the other hand, tallied 54 total yards on Sunday. This outcome is a bit of a surprise. While Sanders has dealt with injuries to his groin and shoulder early in 2023, it was reasonable to anticipate he’d be more involved coming off of the Panthers’ bye week presumably healthy. For now, it’s safe to operate with the understanding Hubbard will lead the way in Week 9 vs. the Colts.

View all Chuba Hubbard Shark Bites »

Panthers RB Miles Sanders (shoulder) put in a full week of practice and isn’t listed on the final injury report for Sunday’s game vs. the Texans. We don’t need to worry about Sanders’ health at this point, but his workload is uncertain. RB Chuba Hubbard has simply been the more effective player this season. We’re projecting Sanders to lead a fairly evenly split backfield this week, largely because Carolina gave him $13 million guaranteed). But neither Panther is better than a RB3.

View all Miles Sanders Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View RB Dynasty Rankings »

Miles Sanders, RB CAR
Dynasty MVP 51.0
Position Rank #96 RB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
185
270
375
Dynasty Write-up
Sanders delivered on our call as a dynasty buy-low. Following a scoreless 2021, he set career highs in all major rushing categories. Now entering his age 26 season, Sanders signed with Carolina in March. The Panthers present an excellent spot for short-term opportunity, but regression remains inevitable across the board.
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