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Miles Sanders - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Miles Sanders
PHI

RB PHI

#20 Running Back

184 Projected Points

ADP: 3.8
Bye: 14
Experience: 2 Yr(s)
Age: 24
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 211
40 Time: 4.49

2021 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#20 Running Back

184 Projected Points

ADP Rush Atts Rush Yds Rush TDs 100 Fum Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs
3.8 208 960 7 2 2 40 340 2

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

3d Projection

High Floor

156.4

DS Projection

184

Consensus

38 other sites
197.3

High Ceiling

239.2

Ceiling Likelihood

Medium
How likely they will reach their ceiling projection

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Sanders logged fewer carries and targets in his 2nd season vs. his rookie year, but he improved by multiple measures.
  • According to Football Outsiders, Sanders went from 30th in rushing DYAR and DVOA in 2019 (among 45 qualifiers) to 15th and 19th, respectively, among 47 qualifiers in 2020.
  • Sanders also improved in Pro Football Focus’ elusive rating, from 33rd among 61 qualifiers in 2019 to 18th among 63 last season. He also saw a jump in breakaway percentage, which measures the amount of production that comes from big plays. Sanders went from 30.1% in 2019 to 33.4% in 2020. This could be viewed positively or negatively, but it at least points to the big-play ability of Sanders -- especially when you consider that Philly’s offense fell from 14th to 28th in Football Outsiders overall DVOA from 2019 to 2020.
  • Sanders’ receiving took a dive in 2020. That showed in the traditional stats:
    • 2019: 3.1 rec/game, 31.8 yards/game, 10.2 yds/rec, 3 TDs
    • 2020: 2.3 rec/game, 16.4 yards/game, 7.0 yds/rec, 0 TDs
  • His performance in that area declined according to PFF receiving grade, PFF pass-blocking grade and Football Outsiders metrics.
  • Sanders went from 10th among 46 qualifiers in PFF yards per route run in 2019 to just 50th among 58 in 2020 -- losing nearly a full yard off his mark.
  • Philadelphia added only 5th-round rookie Kenneth Gainwell and waiver-pickup Kerryon Johnson to the backfield.
  • New HC Nick Sirianni has coached in 12 NFL offenses. Those teams have averaged 226.2 rushes per season for their top ball-carrier and 68.8 targets for their top backfield receiver.
  • Sirianni has spent 12 years as an offensive coach in the NFL across 3 staffs: 4 years in Kansas City (before Andy Reid), 5 with the Chargers, and 3 with Indy. Those offenses have averaged a 56.45% passing share. That would have been the 11th most run-heavy offense in the league last year.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Sanders dealt with injuries that cost him 4 games and removed him early from a 5th in his 2nd season. That chipped away at his stat totals. But the advanced metrics pointed to improved rushing performance even as the offense crumbled around him. Sanders slipped as a receiver, though. How much of that came from the decline in QB play? We’ll see. But the new coaching staff has already showed an affinity for the screen game. And Sirianni’s history appears RB-friendly. Sanders also faces light competition. Philly added only 5th-round pick Kenneth Gainwell and Lions castoff Kerryon Johnson to an already-shallow backfield. Sanders looks like an easy buy at his Round 3 ADP.

 

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Eagles RBs coach Jamel Singleton hinted that his team plans on deploying a committee backfield in 2021. "There are very specific skill sets you need in your room," Singleton said. "You need a first- and second-down runner with that really elite ability. You need a guy that can pass protect on third down and be short yardage. You need a back that can run routes and you can put him out in empty. It’s really a combination of that. I think the days of, ‘he’s an every-down back,’ that’s a little skewed these days because of the speed, because of the contact.” There are very few every-down backs in today's NFL, so this certainly isn't a death knell to Miles Sanders. But we're curious to see exactly how much work he'll cede after the Eagles added rookie RB Kenneth Gainwell and RB Kerryon Johnson to a group that already included RBs Boston Scott and Jordan Howard.

View all Miles Sanders Shark Bites »

Eagles RB Miles Sanders (knee) is out for Sunday night’s game vs. Washington. It looks like he hurt his knee in Thursday’s practice. We’ll see if it’s anything that’ll impact his 2021. Sanders’ absence leaves the Eagles’ backfield to RBs Boston Scott, Jordan Howard and Corey Clement.

View all Miles Sanders Shark Bites »

Eagles RB Miles Sanders (knee) put in a full week of practice, including full workouts on Thursday and Friday, and isn’t listed on the final injury report. We’re expecting him to be back in his usual role against the Giants this weekend. Sanders averaged 15.5 carries and 5.8 targets in 4 full games earlier this season.

View all Miles Sanders Shark Bites »

Eagles RB Miles Sanders (knee) was limited in Wednesday's practice. At least he got on the field, although it would have been nice to see him get in a full workout. We're tentatively expecting Sanders to return for this weekend's game vs. the Giants, but we wouldn't go dropping RB Boston Scott just yet.

View all Miles Sanders Shark Bites »

The Eagles expect RB Miles Sanders (knee) to return to practice after this week's bye, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. It sounds like we should expect to have the Philly starter back in fantasy lineups for Week 10. We'll certainly track his participation through the week.

View all Miles Sanders Shark Bites »

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