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Tyreek Hill - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsTyreek Hill's Basic Stats

Tyreek Hill
ADP: 2.6
Bye: 11
Experience: 6 Yr(s)
Age: 28.3
Height: 5'10"
Weight: 185
40 Time: 4.34
Speed Score: 100.00
SPARQx (Rank): 122.50 (92%)
Burst Score (Rank): 133.40 (94%)
Agility Score (Rank): 10.59 (98%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.35 (94%)

Tyreek Hill's 2022 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#8 Wide Receiver

187.9 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
2.6 91.4 1233.1 9.4 3.1 1

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsTyreek Hill's Preseason Player Analysis

View WR Fantasy Rankings »

What You Need to Know:

  • Despite an early-season quad injury, Hill finished as the PPR WR6 in 2021. He barely played in the finale with a heel injury.
  • He appeared in all 17 games, recording 1,239 yards and 9 TDs on a career-high 6.5 catches per game.
  • Unsurprisingly, Hill leads all WRs in TDs on deep passes (20+ yards) since 2017 (29).
  • However, Hill was used more as a short-range target in ‘21. His aDOT dropped from 13.4, 12.5 and 15.5 (2018-2020) to 11.0 last season.
  • That explains Hill’s career-low 11.2 yards per catch. His yards per route run figure (2.11) ranked 12th among 49 WRs with 50+ targets.
  • Miami traded for Hill, 28, this offseason and rewarded him with a massive 4-year extension that includes $72 million guaranteed.
  • His deep speed is a questionable fit alongside the more conservative Tua Tagovailoa. But new HC Mike McDaniel is expected to orchestrate an offense predicated on catch-and-run opportunities.
  • The Fins are strong at pass catcher beyond Hill: Jaylen Waddle, Cedrick Wilson, Mike Gesicki and Chase Edmonds. Hill’s nowhere near a lock for another 159 targets.
  • Miami’s also not expected to be near the top of the league in pass rate. McDaniel, though, has never never called plays, so we have nothing concrete to go off.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Hill’s ranked as a top-9 PPR WR in 4 of the past 5 seasons.

But 2022 turns up a major QB downgrade, going from Patrick Mahomes to Tua Tagovailoa in a make-or-break campaign.

Hill will also play in a Miami offense that’s not expected to throw as much as the Chiefs have in recent years (61% in 2021 and 2020).

Still, we’re talking about an all-time talent here. Only 28, we’ve seen no indication that he’ll decline physically. And with Miami’s offense expected to emphasize catch-and-run opportunities, Hill should remain a PPR and YAC monster.

He remains on track for another WR1 season.

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Tyreek Hill, WR MIA

12:41pm EDT 3/23/22

Hill traded to Miami

The Chiefs are trading WR Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins in exchange for the 29th overall pick of this year's draft, plus 2022 2nd- and 4th-round picks and 2023 4th- and 6th-rounders, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. Hill will reportedly get a contract extension from Miami that will make him among the highest-paid WRs in the league. His fantasy value takes a hit with the move. He goes from QB Patrick Mahomes to QB Tua Tagovailoa and from a pass-heavy offense to what figures to be a more balanced offense under new Dolphins HC Mike McDaniel. Hill remains arguably the most electric playmaker in the NFL, though, and should garner a big target share in Miami. He's still a WR1. The Chiefs, meanwhile, are currently left with WRs JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mecole Hardman, Josh Gordon, Justin Watson, Cornell Powell and Corey Coleman. They figure to add to the group in free agency and/or the draft, but Smith-Schuster and Hardman gets sizable boosts with Hill's departure.

Update: Miami is giving Hill a 4-year, $120 million extension with $72.2 million guaranteed, according to agent Drew Rosenhaus. That $30 million per year puts Hill a couple million ahead of new Raider Davante Adams for highest-paid WR.

View all Tyreek Hill Shark Bites »

The Chiefs have given WR Tyreek Hill permission to seek a trade, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. The 2 sides have been working on a long-term deal, and Kansas City has reportedly made an offer that would make Hill 1 of the league's highest-paid WRs. But "talks have stalled," Rapoport says. The Dolphins have been among the most interested teams so far, Rapoport adds. We'd be surprised if the Chiefs let Hill get away but will certainly keep a close eye on the situation. In likely related news, Kansas City is hosting free-agent WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling on Wednesday.

Update: ESPN's Adam Schefter tweets, "Jets and Dolphins are in serious talks to trade for Chiefs’ WR Tyreek Hill, per league sources. Hill and Chiefs are mulling what to do but Hill’s time in KC looks like it could be coming to an end."

View all Tyreek Hill Shark Bites »

NFL insider Ian Rapoport reports that the Chiefs have entered contract talks with WR Tyreek Hill. The 28-year-old is scheduled to count ~$21 million against the cap in 2022, a contract year. 2021 produced 1,239 yards and 9 TDs on a career-high 111 catches. He carries a Round 1 ADP in early best ball drafting.

View all Tyreek Hill Shark Bites »

Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill (heel) is not listed on the final injury report for Sunday's Wild Card game vs. the Steelers. He was a full-go on Wednesday, limited on Thursday and full again on Friday. Hill should be ready to play his usual role this weekend.

View all Tyreek Hill Shark Bites »

Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill (heel) was downgraded to limited participation in Thursday's practice after being a full-go on Wednesday. We're guessing that Kansas City is just playing it safe ahead of Sunday's Wild Card game vs. the Steelers, but we'll get another update on Hill on Friday afternoon.

View all Tyreek Hill Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Tyreek Hill, WR MIA
Dynasty MVP 152.4
Position Rank #8 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
544
870
1,017
Dynasty Write-up
Hill's average target depth in 2021 dipped to its lowest level since his 2016 rookie campaign, bringing his yards per catch down with it. But he also set a new career high in targets per game and produced his 3rd top-6 PPR finish of the past 4 years. (Hill missed 4 games and parts of 2 others in 2019.) Dolphins HC Mike McDaniel has hinted at continued varied usage of the versatile speedster. It's tough to see the same fantasy ceiling, though, with a swap of Patrick Mahomes for Tua Tagovailoa at QB.
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