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Tyreek Hill - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Tyreek Hill
KC

WR KC

#1 Wide Receiver

228 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 12
Experience: 5 Yr(s)
Age: 27
Height: 5'10"
Weight: 185
40 Time: 4.29

Weekly Outlook

3d Projection

Low Floor

6.3

DS Projection

10.3

Consensus

38 other sites
12

Med Ceiling

14.9

Rest of
Season

Week 20 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
5.8 66.7 0.6 10.3
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Week 13
Hill had 2 receptions for 22 yards on 5 targets in Sunday night’s win over the Broncos.
Hill had his worst game of the season as he dropped 2 passes with 1 going off his hands and getting intercepted by Patrick Surtain Jr.
Hill was wide open on his other target and it would have been a big play, but Mahomes’ arm was hit and the ball fell well short.
Hill should bounce back in a big way in Week 14 at home against the Raiders. Hill shredded these same Raiders for 7-83-2 back in Week 10.
Week 11
Hill had game highs of 9 catches, 11 targets and 77 yards. He also took a pitchout for a 33-yard gain on the 1st-quarter drive that gave Kansas City a lead it never lost against Dallas. Hill would have had 10 catches in the game if he had been able to hold a pass thrown toward his ankles.
He is 1 of the NFL’s most dynamic offensive weapons, with 1 of its most prolific QBs, Patrick Mahomes, throwing to him. Hill is 2nd in the league with 84 catches, 3 short of his season high with 6 games remaining. If he has 2 feet and he’s on your roster, Hill is a no-brainer must-start. He’ll be rested for Week 13 against the Broncos after a bye week.
Week 10
The Chiefs found their groove on Sunday Night Football with an offensive explosion. Hill was a major part of that, tying for the team lead with 10 targets (20% target share) and finding the end zone twice in the 1st half. Hill’s quickness continues to be an incredible weapon in this offense, and Patrick Mahomes was happy to find his speedy receiver for 8- and 1-yard scores. Hill finished the night with 7 catches for 83 yards and 2 TDs. He added 1 carry for 2 yards.
Hill has now seen 39 targets over the last 3 games, and this was his first multi-score game since Week 4. Hill is our WR2 this week against the Cowboys. The Dallas defense has allowed 9 receiving TDs to opposing WRs through 9 games. However, they have held opponent WR groups to less than 200 receiving yards in 3 of their last 4 games. The next 3 weeks on the schedule for the Chiefs include DAL, BYE and DEN. We have Hill ranked as our overall WR3 for the rest of the season.
Week 9
Hill had just 4 receptions for 37 yards. While this is far from what anyone wanted to see, there is some reason for optimism. He had 11 targets against the Packers, his 6th straight game with 9+ targets, averaging 12.5 over that span.

This should help to keep optimism high for Hill going forward. It's been a bit of an up and down season. He has just two 100-yard games, which is not out of the ordinary considering he had just 3 all 2020.

The TD regression, on the other hand, is the more frustrating part. Hill had 15 TDs in 2020 and had just 3 weeks where he did not find the end zone. Thus far he already has 5 weeks where he has failed to score.

The good news is Hill is still 2nd in receptions, 5th in yards and in the top 10 for TDs. This production has him as a top 3 WR in all formats. Hill should remain a stud going forward with the potential to boom and almost single handedly win a week for fantasy teams.
Week 8
Hill had a monster 12-94-1 game on a whopping 18 targets in the comeback win over the Giants Monday night. He was used early and often, scoring the 1st TD the Giants defense has allowed in the 1st quarter all season. The Giants did a decent job of limiting his activity after the catch, and he didn’t gain more than 15 yards on any play.

Hill set the tone for the Chiefs right out of the gate with 6 receptions in the 1st quarter. He leads the league with 64 receptions and is tied with WR Cooper Kupp at 90 targets through 8 games.

Although the Chiefs and QB Patrick Mahomes may not be producing like they’re used to, it appears that Hill will be fine. He has a big matchup against a Packers defense that limited the high-powered Arizona defense to just 21 points.
Week 7
Hill caught 6 of 9 targets for 49 yards in the Chiefs' Week 7 loss to the Titans, adding 18 rushing yards.
Hill had 0 targets in the first half as the Chiefs were getting embarrassed 27-0 at the break in a game where they were favored by 4 points.
The Chiefs only had a few drives in the first half and a couple of first downs, which destroyed the fantasy production for Hill. He came in to the week battling a quad injury but appeared to be healthy with 9 targets — 2nd most on the team
Hill should bounce back as a WR1 in Week 8 against the Giants on Monday Night Football.
Week 5
Hill caught 7 of 13 targets for 63 yards in the Chiefs' Week 5 loss to the Bills.
The Chiefs and Hill did not look right in a big Week 5 matchup at home as the Bills had plenty of attention on Hill throughout the game.
The Chiefs should have utilized him more on shallow routes and let him run after the catch, but they kept sending him deep, where the Bills were sagging off with their 2 stud safeties.
Hill is an every week top 5 WR and should bounce back with ease in Week 6 against the terrible Washington defense.
Week 4
What can we say after Hill’s Week 4 outing? He’s awesome. His QB is awesome. And together they exploited a bad Philly secondary.

Hill scored from near (6 yards), far (44 yards) and in between (12 yards). He nearly scored a 4th time, but a 1st-quarter, 37-yard reception initially ruled a TD was overturned after review found him doing down short of the goal line.

Hill gets a much tougher matchup with Buffalo in Week 5, but the Bills allowed him 9-172 receiving on 11 targets last time they met. He’s not sitting against anyone.
Week 3
Don’t be concerned about Hill’s rough game vs. the Chargers. Patrick Mahomes (260-3-2) didn’t play his best ball against a tough Bolts D that made it their mission to slow down Hill. After totaling just 70 yards over the past 2 games, we’d be surprised if he doesn’t go off this week at Philly. The Eagles haven’t used CB Darius Slay to shadow so far in 2021.
Week 2
It was a quiet night for Tyreek Hill on Sunday against the Ravens. Anthony Averett and the Baltimore DBs did a great job of forcing Patrick Mahomes away from targeting the speedster. Mahomes was spreading the ball around (to 9 different receivers) against the Ravens, and Hill was unable to impact the game like he normally does. He finished tied for 3rd on the team with 4 targets. Hill brought in three catches for 14 yards on the night.

Hill still finds himself in the top 10 in air yards in the NFL and is seeing over a 30% target share through 2 weeks. He has an elite QB, experienced play-caller, and tremendous talent. Hill will be just fine. The production will undoubtedly come, and likely very soon.
Week 1
Hill caught 11 of 15 targets for 197 yards and 1 TD in Kansas City's 33-29 Week 1 win over the Browns.
Hill dominated from the beginning of the game as they used him a lot in the slot to create mismatches in the middle of the field. Hill was picking up consistent chunks and then finally hit a bomb in the 2nd half on a 75-yard TD catch deep down the field in 1 on 1 coverage vs. safety John Johnson.
Hill is an every-week WR1 no matter what the matchup is and has an excellent chance to finish as the top WR in fantasy football if he stays healthy for 17 games.

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Hill caught 87 balls for 1,276 yards and a career-high 15 TDs in 15 games last season. (He sat out the meaningless finale.)
  • He finished 2nd among WRs in PPR and non-PPR points.
  • Hill scored as a WR1 in 7 of 15 games -- 3rd most.
  • But he was also more consistent than you might think. He scored as a top-24 WR in a league-high 12 weeks.
  • Hill benefitted from nice volume, finishing 9th among WRs with 134 targets.
  • And he was efficient. Among 87 WRs with 50+ targets last year, Hill ranked 16th in yards per target and 12th in yards per route run.
  • He finished 16th in Pro Football Focus’ receiving grades and 14th in Football Outsiders DVOA.
  • Hill added a 13-123-2 rushing line and has averaged 16.8 carries, 125 yards and 1.2 TDs per season for his 5-year career.
  • Hill finished 8th, 5th and 11th at his position in PPR points per game from 2017 to 2019.
  • He’s likely in for some TD regression this season after scoring on 17.2% of his receptions last year. He scored on 11.4% over his first 4 seasons.
  • But that could be offset by a spike in targets.
    • The Chiefs parted ways this offseason with WR Sammy Watkins, who ranked 3rd on the team last year with 5.5 targets per game.
    • WRs Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson and Byron Pringle return, but the only addition Kansas City made was 5th-round rookie Cornell Powell.
    • So Hill could top last year’s 135 targets and 23.0% target share. He saw 137 targets on a 23.5% share in 2018 and garnered 25.9% of Chiefs targets in his 10 healthy games in 2019.
  • The Chiefs remade their offensive line this offseason, adding OT Orlando Brown, Gs Joe Thuney and Kyle Long and Cs Austin Blythe and Creed Humphrey. Improved protection for QB Patrick Mahomes would help him hit Hill downfield for more big plays.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Hill is coming off a WR2 finish across fantasy scoring formats and has been a top-12 WR for 4 straight seasons now. He’s still just 27 and returns to the same offense with the same (elite) QB in 2021. Hill is even a threat to set a new career high in targets this season with Kansas City’s WR depth looking weak.

Hill is 1 of the safer picks in fantasy football and worth considering anywhere in the back half of Round 1.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill (heel) is not listed on the final injury report for Sunday's Wild Card game vs. the Steelers. He was a full-go on Wednesday, limited on Thursday and full again on Friday. Hill should be ready to play his usual role this weekend.

View all Tyreek Hill Shark Bites »

Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill (heel) was downgraded to limited participation in Thursday's practice after being a full-go on Wednesday. We're guessing that Kansas City is just playing it safe ahead of Sunday's Wild Card game vs. the Steelers, but we'll get another update on Hill on Friday afternoon.

View all Tyreek Hill Shark Bites »

Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill (heel) was listed as a full participant in Wednesday's practice. He ended up playing just 14 snaps in Saturday's win over the Broncos after hurting his heel in warmups, but it looks like Hill will be back in his usual role in Sunday's Wild Card game vs. the Steelers.

View all Tyreek Hill Shark Bites »

Chiefs HC Andy Reid said Monday that he expects WR Tyreek Hill (heel) to play vs. the Steelers on Sunday night. That's not a surprise considering Hill played a bit last week after hurting that heel in pregame warmups. Hill clearly wasn't close to 100%, though, so his effectiveness this weekend is in question.

View all Tyreek Hill Shark Bites »

Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill hurt his right heel in warmups prior to Saturday's game vs. the Broncos. He ended up playing limited snaps and finishing with 1 catch for 2 yards. We'll look for updates on Hill's status and keep a close eye on his practice participation leading into next weekend's Wild Card game.

View all Tyreek Hill Shark Bites »

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