Bottom Line

Hill showed no signs of decline in 2022. In fact, he set a career-high with 341 PPR points.

If Tua Tagovailoa stays healthy, Hill should have little trouble repeating as a high-end WR1.

What We Learned Last Year

• Hill ranked 2nd in total WR PPR points; 4th in points per game.
• The former Chief finished as a top-6 fantasy WR six times. Only Justin Jefferson and Davante Adams posted more top-6 finishes.
• Hill set career highs in targets (170), catches (119), and receiving yards (1,710).
• He led the league with a massive 3.07 yards per route run. The 29-year-old also sat first with a personal-best 92.0 Pro Football Focus receiving grade.
• Hill tallied lines of 7-47 (vs. Jets), 12-177 (vs. Vikings), 4-55 (vs. Patriots), and 2-23 (vs. Jets) without Tua Tagovailoa.
• Hill played all 17 games for the second straight season. He suffered a minor ankle injury in Week 17 but was fine for the Wild Card Round loss to Buffalo.
• Jaylen Waddle did, too, though Hill crushed him in target share (30.2% to 20.8%).
• Hill was investigated on assault and battery allegations for an incident at a Miami Beach marina in late June. The two parties "resolved their differences" near the end of July, so we're not expecting any NFL discipline.

What to Expect in 2023

• Hill’s 2022 production won’t be easy to match. Since 2000, only eight WRs have hit 20+ PPR points per game at age 29: Marvin Harrison, Jordy Nelson, Terrell Owens, Davante Adams, Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, Torry Holt, and Cooper Kupp.
• Hill’s tape showed he’s still an elite talent, though. And Miami didn’t make any significant moves at pass catcher, providing similar target upside for 2023.
• The Dolphins return the same HC (Mike McDaniel), OC (Frank Smith), and WR coach (Wes Welker).
• Miami ranked 8th in pass rate last season (60%). With the same staff back, we expect a similar rate in 2023.
• Hill’s 8th pro season will largely come down to the health of Tua Tagovailoa, who suffered multiple concussions in 2022. In four games without Tua, Hill finished as the WR25, WR3, WR17, and WR74.
• Miami at least upgraded their backup QB spot, signing former Jet Mike White to a 2-year deal with $4.5 million guaranteed.
• Hill told the Totally Offensive podcast in April that he currently plans to retire after the 2025 season. He’ll be nearly 32 years old at that time.