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Tyreek Hill - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Tyreek Hill


#1 Wide Receiver

228 Projected Points

ADP: 1.10
Bye: 12
Experience: 5 Yr(s)
Age: 27
Height: 5'10"
Weight: 185
40 Time: 4.29

2021 Projections & Outlook


#1 Wide Receiver

228 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
1.10 94 1401 12 6

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Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Hill caught 87 balls for 1,276 yards and a career-high 15 TDs in 15 games last season. (He sat out the meaningless finale.)
  • He finished 2nd among WRs in PPR and non-PPR points.
  • Hill scored as a WR1 in 7 of 15 games -- 3rd most.
  • But he was also more consistent than you might think. He scored as a top-24 WR in a league-high 12 weeks.
  • Hill benefitted from nice volume, finishing 9th among WRs with 134 targets.
  • And he was efficient. Among 87 WRs with 50+ targets last year, Hill ranked 16th in yards per target and 12th in yards per route run.
  • He finished 16th in Pro Football Focus’ receiving grades and 14th in Football Outsiders DVOA.
  • Hill added a 13-123-2 rushing line and has averaged 16.8 carries, 125 yards and 1.2 TDs per season for his 5-year career.
  • Hill finished 8th, 5th and 11th at his position in PPR points per game from 2017 to 2019.
  • He’s likely in for some TD regression this season after scoring on 17.2% of his receptions last year. He scored on 11.4% over his first 4 seasons.
  • But that could be offset by a spike in targets.
    • The Chiefs parted ways this offseason with WR Sammy Watkins, who ranked 3rd on the team last year with 5.5 targets per game.
    • WRs Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson and Byron Pringle return, but the only addition Kansas City made was 5th-round rookie Cornell Powell.
    • So Hill could top last year’s 135 targets and 23.0% target share. He saw 137 targets on a 23.5% share in 2018 and garnered 25.9% of Chiefs targets in his 10 healthy games in 2019.
  • The Chiefs remade their offensive line this offseason, adding OT Orlando Brown, Gs Joe Thuney and Kyle Long and Cs Austin Blythe and Creed Humphrey. Improved protection for QB Patrick Mahomes would help him hit Hill downfield for more big plays.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Hill is coming off a WR2 finish across fantasy scoring formats and has been a top-12 WR for 4 straight seasons now. He’s still just 27 and returns to the same offense with the same (elite) QB in 2021. Hill is even a threat to set a new career high in targets this season with Kansas City’s WR depth looking weak.

Hill is 1 of the safer picks in fantasy football and worth considering anywhere in the back half of Round 1.


Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Chiefs RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ankle), WR Tyreek Hill (hamstring) and WR Sammy Watkins (calf) have been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Chargers. Hill would likely play if this game meant anything to Kansas City. Edwards-Helaire and Watkins' statuses for the playoffs are unclear. The Chiefs have already said QB Patrick Mahomes won't play on Sunday. Don't expect to see TE Travis Kelce, either. RB Le'Veon Bell (knee) is listed as questionable and probably won't play much, if at all.

View all Tyreek Hill Shark Bites »

Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill (hamstring) is active for today’s game against the Falcons. ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported this morning that the team “will monitor Hill and be smart with him.” There’s slightly elevated risk here, but Hill remains a strong Week 16 fantasy play.

View all Tyreek Hill Shark Bites »

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport confirms that Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill (hamstring) is expected to play vs. Atlanta today. Hill got in 2 limited practices this week, and we never heard any concern about his status. He remains an elite fantasy play.

View all Tyreek Hill Shark Bites »

Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Falcons. He got in 2 limited practices this week, and HC Andy Reid said he expects Hill to play. Keep him penciled into fantasy lineups for now, but check back Sunday to make sure he's active.

View all Tyreek Hill Shark Bites »

Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill missed Wednesday's practice with a hamstring issue. The Kansas City Star's Sam McDowell described it as tightness. "I think he's going to be OK," HC Andy Reid said. Hamstrings can be tricky, so we'll keep a close eye on this. But it sounds like Hill is on track to play vs. the Falcons on Sunday.

View all Tyreek Hill Shark Bites »

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