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Flowers is coming off a WR11 fantasy finish and remains an ascending player entering his age-26 season. He should be a target hog again in a thin Baltimore pass-catching corps.
Flowers is one of the safer picks on the board at cost and boasts WR1-level upside.
Customize his projection for your exact league settings inside the Draft War Room.Flowers racked up 86 catches for 1,211 yards and 5 TDs last year. The catches and yardage were career highs and ranked eighth and sixth, respectively, among all WRs.
Despite tying for just 32nd at the position in TDs, Flowers finished 11th in PPR and half-PPR points per game.
He was more inconsistent than similarly productive WRs, though. Flowers twice led his position in PPR points (Weeks 1 and 18) but cracked the top-20 just two other times.
On the plus side, Flowers finished worse than WR32 just twice.
Flowers ranked 16th among WRs with 118 targets and 23rd with 6.9 targets per game.
His 27.7% target share was good for eighth at the position. Flowers ranked 18th among 86 qualifying WRs in targets per route (0.25).
He wasn’t as involved near the end zone, though. Flowers ranked:
Flowers finished 24th among WRs in expected PPR points per game.
Flowers hauled in 72.9% of his targets and averaged 14.1 yards per catch. Among 76 WRs with 50+ targets, he ranked:
That efficiency made Flowers the sixth biggest overachiever among WRs in terms of actual PPR points per game (14.7) vs. expected points per game (12.5).
The Ravens ran one of the league’s run-heaviest offenses last year, ranking 32nd in pass rate (48.0%) and 31st in neutral pass rate (48.1%). Baltimore also finished 29th in plays per game (57.3).
The result was a league-low 24.8 passes per game, 2.8 fewer than any other team and 3.3 fewer than Baltimore averaged in any of its previous four seasons.
The Ravens also played four games without Lamar Jackson, and Flowers’ production predictably suffered. The per-game averages:
13 games with Jackson
4 games without Jackson
Flowers’ scoring average with Jackson would have made him PPR WR10 on the season.
Flowers has improved across the board over his first three NFL seasons.
Flowers went from 12.8 PPR points per game as a rookie to 12.3 in 2024 before hitting a career-high 14.7 last year.
Flowers turns 26 in September, which is right around peak age for WRs, according to our aging-curve research.
Flowers has not missed a regular-season game due to injury through three NFL seasons. He did suffer a right LCL sprain in the 2024 finale that sidelined him for Baltimore’s two playoff games.
Flowers returns as Baltimore’s top target in 2026.
The Ravens lost TE Isaiah Likely in free agency and did not retain WR DeAndre Hopkins, freeing up 75 targets, 17.8% of last year’s total.
Baltimore added WRs Ja’Kobi Lane and Elijah Sarratt in the third and fourth rounds of the draft. They’ll push WR Rashod Bateman for snaps, but none of those guys is likely to earn a lot of targets this season.
TE Mark Andrews figures to finish second in targets, but he turns 31 in September and registered career lows last year in yards per route and PFF receiving grade.
We like Flowers’ chances of drawing 25+% of Ravens targets again this season, with upside around 30%.
John Harbaugh’s 18-year run as HC ended when Baltimore fired him in January. He’ll be replaced by HC Jesse Minter, who brought in OC Declan Doyle.
Minter has a defensive background, so Doyle will run the offense. The 30-year-old has no experience calling plays at any level, so he’s a wildcard.
Doyle does come from a nice coaching tree, though. He spent five years working under Sean Payton (three in New Orleans as offensive assistant, two in Denver as TE coach) and then served as Bears OC under Ben Johnson last season.
The biggest change we hope to see for Flowers in Doyle’s offense is more usage near the end zone. He has just 14 TDs on a 5.9% TD rate over his three NFL seasons, well below the league-wide WR rate of 7.8%.
That looks more like a usage issue than poor performance or bad luck. Flowers’ expected TD rates over the last 3 years:
Flowers is coming off a WR11 finish in PPR and half-PPR points per game, despite scoring just 5 TDs and playing without Jackson for four games.
A healthy season from Jackson, along with a boost in usage near the end zone, could propel Flowers into the top 10 among fantasy WRs.
A new offense under first-time play-caller Declan Doyle looks like the biggest risk.
Flowers also ranked just 24th among WRs in expected points per game last year. If his role doesn’t change and the efficiency slips, he could settle in more as a WR2-3.
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See whether Zay Flowers is available in your leagues.
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