Week 15 IDP Hits: Terrel Bernard and More LBs You Probably Can't Trust

Careful Who You Let Into Your Lineup

Week 15 presents some potentially tricky LB situations as we enter the truest one-week-at-a-time stage of the fantasy season. And some of those tricks might even spill over into Week 16 and beyond.

Let’s sort through the key injury-affected spots and figure out how you should treat them in your lineup decisions.

Terrel Bernard ‘Unlikely’ to Play?

The Bills’ normal lead LB has missed the past two games with an elbow injury. He’s officially questionable for this week after three days of limited practices.

I haven’t found much on the specific expectation, but Sal Maiorana of the Democrat & Chronicle here in Rochester calls it “unlikely Bernard will play.” And he didn’t even present that as a report. It’s a minor note within a subsection that leads with two other players.

I’m not sure what to make of that aspect, and we’ll see about Bernard’s official status ahead of the 1 p.m. ET kickoffs. But HC Sean McDermott has extra incentive to hold the starter out.

Buffalo Run D Looks Better Without Him

The Bills’ run defense has ranked among the worst in the league this season, but that has changed dramatically in games Bernard has missed.

The past two weeks found Buffalo limiting Pittsburgh to 58 yards (3.22 per rush) and Cincinnati to 62 (3.26). Each average landed more than 0.6 short of the team’s full-season yards per carry.

Shaq Thompson also started in place of Bernard for the Week 8 win at Carolina. The Panthers ran for 114 yards in that contest, but their 4.07 yards per rush also landed short of the team’s full-season 4.4-yard average.

According to Kevin Siracuse of Going Deep Buffalo, the Bills have allowed 5.5 yards per carry with Bernard on the field vs. 3.4 with Thompson.

That Week 8 game found Bernard sitting out despite being active off a “questionable” tag. McDermott explained afterward that he chose to hold Bernard out to get his sprained ankle healthier.  And it worked out.

Why not do the same this week for the elbow, which still required a heavy brace in practice?

McDermott went back to him in Week 9, after that aforementioned absence. So at this point we should probably expect to see Bernard back in the lineup at least by the Week 16 trip to Cleveland.

We’ll see how the Bills treat it … and what to expect for Bernard over the ensuing two weeks.

Cardinals LB Might Not Return

This marked the first week that Arizona’s Mack Wilson was eligible to return from the rib injury that landed him on IR. He’s not ready, though, and doesn’t seem to be nearing that return.

Darren Urban, responding to a question about a Wilson update on X, said Thursday: “Nothing new. Not sure if he’s going to be able to return.”

That keeps rookie Cody Simon as the lead LB, potentially for the rest of the season. He hasn’t done a lot with five games of full playing time, topping out at 4 solo tackles twice. But he has mixed in a couple of lines with 9+ total tackles. 

Can We Use Any Arizona LBs?

Simon’s a modest option this week against a Houston offense that’s been a negative scoring matchup for LBs.

Owen Pappoe flashed for 10 tackles (6 solo) and a pass breakup this week, but he did so on just 50% snap share after playing nary a snap across the first 12 games. Tough to trust that in a Week 15 IDP lineup.

Arizona does get positive LB matchups the following two weeks, in case Simon or Pappoe can make himself more attractive against the Texans.

49ers Fill-in Also Not Ready

Tatum Bethune will miss his third straight game with a high-ankle sprain, and it’s looking like the Niners should have just put him on IR.

Despite coming off the Week 14 bye, Bethune remained out of practice all this week. That means the Fred Warner replacement will likely give way again to Curtis Robinson and stands at least a decent chance of missing Week 16 as well.

Robinson looked intriguing after tallying 12 tackles (5 solo) as a late entrant to the game Bethune left early, but he has followed with just 3 and 6 total stops in his two starts (1 and 3 solos).

Dee Winters is the better bet among San Francisco LBs. But he contributed just 7 total tackles over the past two weeks (4 solos). So there’s no truly attractive play. The Tennessee matchup offers a boost at least -- fifth-largest for LB scoring by our numbers -- in case you’re in a deep enough league for Winters or Robinson to make sense.

Give Tremaine Edmunds a Look

The Bears LB remains on the sideline this week for the fourth contest since a groin injury landed him on IR. But that makes him eligible to return for Week 16 against the Packers.

I don’t know at the moment how likely Edmunds is to play in that game. But I do know he sits top 5 in fantasy points per game on the season (perhaps depending on your format).

That makes him worth stashing where available if it makes sense for your roster.

Bears LBs in a Weird Place Overall

Chicago did get T.J. Edwards and Noah Sewell back from multi-week injuries for last Sunday’s game, but you might not have realized it from the way the team treated the position.

D’Marco Jackson remained the only LB to get full playing time in the loss to the Packers. That was surprising, because Jackson had played just 32 total defensive snaps this season before being pressed into Week 12 duty. He also entered the season with zero career starts.

Sewell similarly entered the year with no proven record and saw duty because of Edwards’ early-season hamstring trouble. It would be reasonable if Chicago merely liked Jackson’s play and decided to roll with him over Sewell. But Edwards is a seventh-year vet making $10 million a year who has been a full-time starter since 2020. Surely they were just easing him back in off his second hamstring absence of the season, right?

Maybe. But Mully & Haugh of 670 The Score in Chicago asked Edwards on Monday if he’d get back to his usual role for Week 15 … and he didn’t say yes.

Here’s what he did say at the 6:45 mark: 

Edwards has been off the injury report this week after going, limited, limited, full with no game status for Week 14.

Will he jump from last week’s 55% playing time to his usual full role? I’d think so but have no way to know for sure. That adds obvious risk to popping Edwards into your IDP lineup. At least the Cleveland matchup presents upside if you go for it.

I’d Avoid the Giants’ No. 2 LB

We know Bobby Okereke can help fantasy lineups. But the Giants’ No. 2 LB slot has produced some surprising value from multiple players this year. That makes it a potential sleeper spot for Sunday’s upside matchup with Washington. But there’s a problem.

Week 13 found Zaire Barnes racking up 13 tackles (8 solo, 1 for a loss) and a sack on 78% playing time. But he only got that shot because both Darius Muasau and Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles went down.

Both those guys returned to practice this week. And both hit the weekend questionable.

Muasau seems likely to play after managing full practices every day. But perhaps the “questionable” tag signals Giants hesitation to bring him all the way back. DFF sat out Friday after full workouts Wednesday and Thursday.

Ultimately, we’ll have to see who’s out there Sunday. And that uncertainty makes it a tough situation to wanna mess with for Week 15 lineups. I’ll be watching for any Sunday morning clarity.

If everyone’s healthy, my guess would be Muasau reclaiming the job. He’s a second-year Giants draft pick who took the spot after Micah McFadden went down. But that’s still just a guess at this point.

Your Weekly Payton Wilson Update Brings Bad News

Let’s close this out with our usual check-in on the playing time for Steelers LB Payton Wilson. And if you came away from his 14-tackle effort in the loss to Buffalo with hope that he’d help you in the fantasy playoffs … prepare to get disappointed.

Wilson dropped to a season-low 40% snap share for last week’s win over the Ravens. And it makes some sense.

Pittsburgh has shown us with Wilson’s usage for a while that it doesn’t trust him in run defense, and few opponents threaten that area more than Baltimore does.

This week, however, brings the Dolphins; Week 16, the Lions. That sure looks like a couple more offenses you don’t want your weak run defender facing.

Plan on not using Wilson this week or next.

Next Up

Week 15 IDP Waiver Wire: Ride This LB to a Championship

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Matt Schauf, Editor

Matt has earned two Fantasy Pros accuracy awards for IDP rankings and won thousands of dollars as a player across best ball, dynasty, and high-stakes fantasy formats. He has been creating fantasy football content for more than 20 years, with work featured by Sporting News, Rotoworld, Athlon, Sirius XM, and others. He's been with Draft Sharks since 2011.