Bottom Line

Toney has a wide range of outcomes this season.

Maybe he continues to struggle with injuries and flames out with another NFL team. He's needed two knee surgeries this offseason and is iffy for Week 1.

But if he gets and stays healthy, Toney has the potential to emerge as the No. 1 WR in one of the league’s most productive passing games.

He might be the biggest risk/reward pick in fantasy football.

What We Learned Last Year

• Toney dealt with knee and hamstring trouble throughout last summer. He played just 35 total snaps across the first two weeks for the Giants, going catch-less in the opener and then finishing with 0 yards on two grabs in Week 2.
• He missed the next five weeks with a hamstring injury.
• The Giants traded Toney to the Chiefs on Oct. 27 in exchange for a 2023 third-round compensatory pick and a 2023 sixth-round pick.
• Toney made his Chiefs debut 10 days later, catching both of his targets for 12 yards on nine snaps.
• His role grew the following week: 5 targets, 4 catches, 57 yards, and a TD on a 44% snap rate. He added another 33 yards on two carries.
• But a Week 11 hamstring injury cost him the next three games.
• Toney returned to a part-time role over the final four regular-season games, totaling 9 targets, 8 catches, 102 yards, and 1 TD.
• He led Chiefs WRs with 7 targets, 5 catches, and 36 yards in the Divisional Round win over the Jaguars …
• But then hurt his ankle in the AFC Championship and was limited to just six snaps in the Super Bowl.
• That’s been the story of Toney’s first two NFL seasons: Flashes of nice production halted by way-too-many injuries.
• Toney has missed 15 games through two NFL seasons and been limited to less than 40% of the offensive snaps in 11 others.
• But in eight relatively healthy games (with a snap rate of 40+%), he’s averaged 4.8 catches and 55.4 yards – a full-season pace of 81 catches and 941 yards.
• Toney has averaged 7.1 targets on a 20.0% target share in those eight games.
• And he’s been efficient, with a career 71.4% catch rate and 2.12 yards per route run. To put that into perspective, only 12 WRs with 50+ targets last year topped 2.12 yards per route.
• Albeit on a small sample (69 regular-season routes), Toney drew a target on a strong 24.6% of his routes with the Chiefs last year. That easily led the team’s WRs – ahead of Skyy Moore (18.2%), JuJu Smith-Schuster (18.1%), Mecole Hardman (15.5%), and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (13.8%).

What to Expect in 2023

• Toney had a "cleanup" procedure on his knee this offseason and then required a second surgery on that knee in late July.
• HC Andy Reid said "there's a chance" that Toney could be ready for the start of the regular season.
• When healthy, Toney finds plenty of opportunity. The Chiefs lost 135 targets (20.7% of the total) from last year with the offseason departures of WRs JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman.
• Kansas City only added veteran Richie James and rookie Rashee Rice to the WR corps. Skyy Moore, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Justin Watson return from last year’s squad. None of those guys have reached 700 receiving yards in an NFL season.
• The Chiefs have been high on Toney for a while. They were hoping he would fall to them in the 2021 draft and then tried to trade for him in spring 2022, according to ESPN’s Adam Teicher.
• Kansas City has finished top 6 in passing yards and TDs in all five seasons with QB Patrick Mahomes as the starter.
• Chiefs WRs have ranked 15th or better in total WR PPR points in all five of those seasons, so there are certainly fantasy points to be had here.