Kadarius Toney - Fantasy Points Outlook

What You Need to Know:

• Among 103 WRs with 40+ targets last year, Toney tied for 11th (with Tyreek Hill) in yards per route run, according to Pro Football Focus. For some context, here’s the top 20:
  
  
• Toney stood out among that group for having the shortest average depth of target. You’d have to look down all the way to #45 Rondale Moore on the YPRR list to find someone with a shorter ADOT than Toney’s 6.5.
• Overall, Toney ranked 98th in ADOT among the 103 WRs with 40+ targets. He tied for 8th in yards after catch per reception, matching Chris Godwin and Cooper Kupp, and trailing:
  
  • Deebo Samuel
  • Mecole Hardman
  • Rondale Moore
  • Ja’Marr Chase
  • Deonte Harty
  • Kendrick Bourne
  • Laviska Shenault
• Toney went similarly short on ADOT in college, posting a 6.6 career ADOT and 7.7 for his senior year. He also proved similarly strong after the catch.
• Trade rumors around NFL Draft time didn’t produce anything, and new HC Brian Daboll has since dispelled reports of displeasure with the 2nd-year wideout: “I told you I had a really good conversations with KT before. I really like him. He’s smart,” Daboll said in mid-May. “You can tell he’s got instinctive football. He was a really good (high school) quarterback down in Alabama. He’s been a pleasure to be around. Good teammate. Smart. It’s been great.”
• His specific role remains to be seen as of this writing, as Toney wasn’t on the field for OTAs. He’s expected to start opposite Kenny Golladay, though, and play primarily outside in 3-WR sets. Toney spent 60% of his time in the slot last year, but the Giants then drafted 5’8 Wan’Dale Robinson in the 2nd round.
• It’s also worth noting that Toney spent more than 85% of his pass snaps in the slot in each of his final 2 college seasons.
• Toney drew 79.2% of his targets in the short range (0-9 yards) or behind the line of scrimmage as a rookie, according to PFF. Just 11 of his 57 total looks traveled 10+ yards downfield.
• Toney lost most of training camp last year to a hamstring injury. He then lost games in season to ankle, quad and oblique injuries. He topped 50% playing time in 7 games and cracked 60% on just 3 occasions.
• None of last season’s injuries looks like it’ll factor into his readiness for 2022.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Toney flashed in limited opportunities as a rookie. If the fantasy public were more excited heading into Year 2, then we might be wary of him. But Toney currently sits at the bottom of WR4 territory in ADP. There’s plenty of upside from that level, and minimal risk even if he tanks. Assuming he holds down 1 of the top 2 spots, Toney should compete for the target lead in an offense with nowhere to go but up from last season. Draft him as a reserve and you might just wind up with a sneaky regular starter.