Should You Be Scared About How Much the Jaguars Like Nate Boerkircher?

What They're Saying

Here’s how SI.com Jaguars beat writer John Shipley reacted to the pick at the time: "Boerkircher will clearly be the No. 2 tight end in the offense, and he does make the Jaguars more dynamic at the position. But it is hard to imagine any scenario where this was proper value for the Jaguars at No. 56. Instead, it feels like they took a backup because all of their other targets got drafted during the massive run on defenders."

But the recently released Jags war-room video makes it clear Boerkircher was no mere fallback.

GM James Gladstone: “Go with the guy I love. Big Nate. Shock the world, baby. Come on now. Hottest player remaining is A&M. 87.”

OC Grant Udinski: “Boerkircher is changing the offense.”

HC Liam Coen: “I mean, I did have a dream about him. So, it’s like, we’re not gonna go wrong with this guy.”

Our prospect guru, Shane, when I asked him to remind me of his predraft evaluation: “I expected him as a late-round pick, fifth-seventh. Mainly a blocking TE, one year of any production, didn’t expect that to pop. I liked his film a lot. That’s how he got into our predraft rookie guide. But yeah, not this, lol.”

2026 Fantasy Football Impact

We’ve got multiple angles to look at here, and the impact will likely matter for other Jaguars more than for Boerkircher.

First off, Gladstone’s “shock the world” comment indicates he knew no one would expect Boerkircher to go that high, which only confirms how much the team wanted him. Perhaps the Jags could have waited and still landed Boerkircher with one of their three third-round picks, but they apparently couldn’t risk losing him.

And that speaks to the expected plan.

Coen seems least excited among the trio of decision makers featured in the video linked above, but he also clearly wasn’t against the pick. And Coen’s offensive background makes it highly unlikely that Udinski’s flying solo when he talks about Boerkircher “changing the offense.”

So what’s that mean?

Changed Offense Could Limit WR Production

Let’s start with some comments from Coen on personnel groupings following the team’s May rookie minicamp:

In those personnel-package labels, the second digit represents how many TEs are on the field and the first represents RBs. Coen seems to envision plenty of flexibility rather than leaning hard into “heavy” groupings.

That would certainly make sense. When you sport Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers, and Travis Hunter at WR, it would be hard to justify commonly limiting yourself to two of those guys so you can be sure to get Boerkircher and Brenton Strange -- and/or fifth-round rookie TE Tanner Koziol -- on the field together.

But it’s also pretty clear that they’d like to run more multi-TE sets. Last year’s Jaguars ran multiple TEs at the league’s ninth-lowest rate and 3+ WRs at the seventh-highest rate. The 66.1% rate of 3+ WR usage sat closer to Houston’s league lead (70.3%) than league middle (approximately 60%).

If the TE side of that increases this year, the WR side will necessarily decrease at least some. So the big question becomes: Who’s leaving the field?

Expect Some Impact on Incumbents

When multiple TEs are on the field together, they’ll usually occupy the inline and/or slot spots. That generally leaves the outside WRs as the ones joining them.

Thomas and Meyers ran as the primary outside WRs for Jacksonville last year, spending 75.9% and 72.9% of their pass snaps out wide, respectively, according to Pro Football Focus. Washington led the team in total slot snaps but also spent just 50.5% of his pass snaps there for the season.

Part of that was Hunter running as the primary slot guy before his Week 7 injury. But Jacksonville clearly believes Washington can play outside as well. And he has generated plenty of offseason buzz after last year’s second-half breakout.

It’s tough to know exactly how the playing time will split among the top three wideouts, but I’d bet we get some rotation when two or fewer are on the field, with plenty of 3+ WR sets still in the plan.

I wouldn’t significantly alter my expectations for any Jags WR because of one Nate Boerkircher party video. But the “changing” offense will certainly bear watching as we get closer to and then into the season. This is a risk/reward group of wideouts.

Keep the “risk” half of that in mind as you’re deciding how early to draft any of them.

Is This Vet the Biggest Loser?

If we choose to believe that the Jags will continue leveraging their WR talent, then Strange would have to be the most negatively impacted player.

Sure, Boerkircher’s arrival could turn more of Strange’s blocking snaps into pass routes, but the vet already ran a route on 87.8% of those last year, according to PFF. That rate tied for just 28th among 51 TEs who drew 30+ targets, but his 7.8% pass-blocking rate also tied for just 20th.

You’ll need to either believe that Strange isn’t likely to see many more receiving opportunities this year or that Jaguars WRs will collectively lose some playing time.

I feel better betting against Strange making a real fantasy impact than I do fading any of the wideouts.

Dynasty Impact

Oh yeah, and then there’s Boerkircher.

Honestly, we’ll have to see if he sports any worthwhile receiving upside. It doesn’t help his immediate outlook to land on a team that apparently still likes Strange. And even if Strange leaves after his contract expires at the end of this season, Koziol arrives as the far more accomplished and enticing receiver.

Koziol racked up 168 receptions over his final two college seasons, leading all FBS players over that span. His 27.7% dominator rating (share of team’s receiving yards and TDs) led this year’s TE class. Boerkircher peaked at 19 receptions in his fifth college season, didn’t exceed 6 catches in any other, and totaled 417 yards and 4 TDs for his career.

You can stash Boerkircher deep on a dynasty roster and see what happens, but don’t expect big things.