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Carson Wentz - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Carson Wentz
IND

QB IND

#22 Quarterback

321 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 14
Experience: 5 Yr(s)
Age: 28
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 237
40 Time: 4.65

2021 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#22 Quarterback

321 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
Not Available 360/554 4017 25 12 208

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

3d Projection

High Floor

288.9

DS Projection

321

Consensus

38 other sites
334.15

High Ceiling

391.6

Ceiling Likelihood

High
How likely they will reach their ceiling projection

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Wentz set career lows in completion rate (57.4%), yards per attempt (6.0) and QB Rating (72.8) last year. All 3 of those marks ranked 34th among 35 qualifying QBs.
  • He also recorded a career low and ranked 31st among those 35 QBs in Pro Football Focus passing grade.
  • Wentz sat 17th at his position in total fantasy points -- 22nd in points per game -- through Week 13.
  • He was benched in the 3rd quarter of that Week 13 game and didn’t see the field the rest of the way.
  • The Eagles traded Wentz to the Colts in February in exchange for a 2021 3rd-round pick and a conditional 2nd-rounder in 2022 that will turn into a 1st-rounder if Wentz plays at least 75% of the offensive snaps or plays at least 70% of the snaps and the Colts make the playoffs.
  • Throughout his 5 years in Philadelphia, Wentz suffered a hairline fracture in his rib (2016), a torn ACL and LCL in his left knee (2017), a stress fracture in his back (2018) and a concussion (2019 playoffs).
  • Wentz reunites with HC Frank Reich in Indianapolis. Reich was the OC for Wentz’s first 2 seasons in Philly.
  • As a rookie under Reich in 2016, Wentz threw for 3,782 yards, 16 TDs and 14 INTs. He added 150 and 2 scores on the ground to finish 24th among QBs in fantasy points.
  • He took a big step forward in 2017, racking up 3,296 yards and 33 TDs through the air -- plus 299 rushing yards -- in 13 games. Wentz ranked 3rd among QBs in fantasy points per game. (He missed the final 3 games of that 2017 season with the torn ACL and LCL.)
  • Wentz played in 11 games in 2018, finishing 12th at his position in fantasy points per game. He played all 16 games in 2019 and finished QB8.
  • Wentz joins a Colts team that’s been run-leaning the past 2 years, ranking 27th and 25th in pass rate and 24th and 20th in pass attempts. Those teams were quarterbacked by Jacoby Brissett and then Philip Rivers.
  • In 2018 -- Reich’s 1st season as HC and with Andrew Luck under center -- Indy finished 7th in pass rate and 2nd in attempts.
  • We’re projecting the Colts’ 2021 pass rate to settle in between where it was in 2018 and 2019-2020. This offense still figures to center on Jonathan Taylor and the run game.
  • Wentz will operate behind a strong offensive line in Indianapolis. The Colts return 4 of 5 starters from a unit that ranked 7th in both Pro Football Focus’ pass-blocking grades and adjusted sack rate last year. The team signed longtime-Chief Eric Fisher to replace the retired Anthony Castonzo at LT -- although Fisher might not be ready until October after tearing his Achilles in January.
  • Better protection is key for Wentz, who ranked 32nd among 35 QBs in PFF passing grade when under pressure last year.
  • The Colts return 7 of their top 8 target-getters from last season, with TE Trey Burton the only notable departure. Wentz will hopefully also get a healthy season from WR Parris Campbell, who made it through just 1 healthy game last year.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Wentz gets a fresh start in Indianapolis this season but also finds some familiarity. He’ll be reuniting with HC Frank Reich, who was Wentz’s OC for his first 2 NFL seasons in 2016 and 2017.

Wentz finished 3rd among QBs in fantasy points per game in that 2017 season and also scored as a QB1 in 2018 and 2019. So the disastrous 2020 season looks more like an outlier.

A likely run-leaning Colts offense figures to cap Wentz’s fantasy upside a bit. But we wouldn’t be at all surprised if he bounces back and at least brings spot-start fantasy value in 2021.

 

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

ESPN's Adam Schefter and Chris Mortensen report that the Eagles have agreed to trade QB Carson Wentz to the Colts for a 3rd-round pick this year and a conditional 2nd-rounder in 2022. That pick could reportedly turn into a 1st-rounder, likely depending on Wentz's performance in the coming season. The Wentz we watched in Philly last season wouldn't be an upgrade over 2020 Philip Rivers, but Wentz still brings more upside than most other options available to Indy this offseason. He did enough before last year to garner a 4-year, $128 million extension before the 2019 campaign. Wentz -- who just turned 28 in December -- delivered top-10 fantasy finishes in 2019 and 2017. He'll join a Colts offense with better surroundings than Philly boasted last year. Perhaps most importantly, Indianapolis ranked 7th in pass blocking according to Pro Football Focus, vs. 16th for the Eagles. Philadelphia now figures to give Jalen Hurts a shot to open 2021 as the starter -- unless the franchise chooses a new QB in Round 1. (The Eagles pick 6th.) We'll watch how each situation develops this offseason. Both Hurts and Wentz carry top-12 fantasy upside at the position, though we wouldn't select either quite that high in current best-ball drafting.

View all Carson Wentz Shark Bites »

Eagles QB Carson Wentz isn't listed on the Week 1 injury report. He missed some time late in camp with what was reported as a "minor soft tissue injury," but it's a non-issue now. Despite an beat-up WR corps (again), Wentz is a solid QB1 play against Washington this weekend.

View all Carson Wentz Shark Bites »

Eagles QB Carson Wentz sat out Sunday's practice with a "minor soft tissue injury," according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Wentz is day-to-day. This doesn't look like a situation to worry about. We'll certainly keep an eye on the QB's status, though.

View all Carson Wentz Shark Bites »

Eagles QB Carson Wentz sustained a concussion in the 1st half of Sunday's Wild Card loss to the Seahawks. It shouldn't impact his offseason but is worth filing away in case of another head injury. This was Wentz's 1st documented concussion.

View all Carson Wentz Shark Bites »

The Weather.com forecast for East Rutherford, N.J., calls for the chance of rain ramping up in the 4 p.m. ET hour and then climbing every hour thereafter today. That, of course, is the home of MetLife Stadium, where the Giants will host the Eagles for the regular-season finale. The forecast doesn't call for much wind, which historically impacts passing games more than rain. But keep the conditions in mind if you're down to splitting hairs on a close decision or 2 for your fantasy football lineup.

View all Carson Wentz Shark Bites »

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