Carson Wentz - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats

QB IND

#22 Quarterback

303 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available

Bye: 14

Experience: 5 Yr(s)

Age: 28

Height: 6'5"

Weight: 237

40 Time: 4.65

Weekly Outlook

High Floor

15.6

DS Projection

19.3

Consensus

38 other sites
21

Med Ceiling

25.9

Rest of
Season

20.4

Week 8 Projections

Yds	TDs	INT	Rush Yds	Fantasy Pts
247.5	1.6	0.6	11	19.3

Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Yds	TDs	INT	Rush Yds	Fantasy Pts
249.6	1.7	0.8	12.8	20.4

Week 7
Playing in torrential rain, Wentz connected on a deep pass early to Michael Pittman. But otherwise for the majority of the first 3 quarters, the Colts were moving the ball with their rushing attack. However, on the 2 occasions they had the ball in the red zone in the first half, Wentz cashed in on a TD pass to Mo Alie-Cox, and later faked the handoff and ran a bootleg into the end zone. Finally, with the game ticking down late, Wentz found Pittman in single coverage and threw him a 50/50 ball that he hauled in for a 28-yard score. Despite the horrible conditions, Wentz posted an impressive 3 scores.

WIth 2 TD passes in each of his last 4 games, it appears as if Wentz is settling in as a reliable QB2. With HC Frank Reich putting him in favorable situations by using a lot of 2-TE sets and leading with the rushing attack, it’s allowing Wentz to be comfortable while having time to make good decisions. It’ll also help that the team may get RT Braden Smith back after missing the last 3 games. Although his upside will likely be limited, Wentz should be a solid floor play going forward.

Week 6
Wentz is finally starting to look healthy. Week 6 marked the 3rd game in a row where he threw for at least 220 yards and 2 TDs.

Wentz really had it going down the field as he connected on 3 deep balls for 131 yards and 2 scores. Prior to Week 6, Wentz only completed 8 such passes for 246 yards and 1 score. This newfound connection with his WRs down the field helped boost Wentz’s YPA 11.2 on the week.

If Wentz can continue to find the deep ball, we could potentially start seeing QB1 weeks in games where he must throw more. Week 7 brings a 49ers defense that has been toward the bottom in passing yards allowed this season.

Week 5
It appears Carson Wentz is finally getting closer to full health, and it was reflected in his play on Monday Night Football against Baltimore. Wentz benefitted early from an easy screen pass to Taylor, who then went 76 yards to the house for an early score. Wentz did lose a fumble on the second drive, but that was one of his only mistakes on the night. He also benefitted from an incredible play where Michael Pittman went up over the defender to grab an underthrown pass, then finished off the play by scoring on a 42-yard connection. The Colts led most of the game, but Wentz was still able to put up over 400 yards passing on the night. Wentz finished the night 25/35 for 402 yards and 2 TDs. He added 5 rushing yards on 2 carries. This was easily Wentz’s best statistical performance of the season. Combined with getting healthier, he could find himself back on the radar of fantasy managers. Wentz has now thrown for multiple TDs in 3 out of the Colts first 5 games. Next up for Wentz and the Colts passing attack is a surprisingly decent Texans defense that has only allowed 3 passing TDs over their last three games.

Week 4
You could tell that Wentz’s mobility was much improved in Sunday’s win over Miami. He broke the pocket several times to make strong throws downfield — plays he probably couldn’t have made a week prior. Sure, a matchup with Miami helped, but it was still encouraging to see Wentz play mistake-free ball while completing 75% of his passes (for 228 yards and 2 scores). (Note that Indy was without key O-linemen Quenton Nelson and Braden Smith in this one.) Both TDs went to Mo Alie-Cox, one on a wide open pass, and the other on a great individual effort from MAC. At bottom, Wentz’s encouraging play is better for guys like Michael Pittman than it is for his own fantasy outlook. Don’t plan on using the former Eagle Monday night at Baltimore (or any time soon).

Week 3
We’ll consider it a positive that Wentz made it through the Week 3 loss at Tennessee, considering he entered with a pair of ankle sprains. We spent most of the week expecting someone else to start at QB for the Colts.

Wentz completed 19 of 37 throws for 194 yards, which comes out to just 5.24 yards per attempt. That checked in significantly shorter than his marks of 6.61 and 7.97 the previous 2 games.

Wentz narrowly missed adding a TD in the middle of the 3rd quarter. He first failed to hit an open Michael Pittman on 1st-and-goal from the 9-yard line. Then Zach Pascal failed to secure a 3rd-down catch at the goal line to close out the same possession. In the 4th quarter, Wentz just overthrew Pascal with an early-quarter end-zone target.

Wentz certainly missed other throws to multiple levels throughout the game. But he moved around well and -- most importantly -- finished the game.

We’re not too interested in Wentz for Week 4 against a Miami defense that Football Outsiders rates 7th-best in DVOA and 10th against the pass. A Week 6 home date with Houston looks like the next attractive matchup.

Week 2
Wentz had an uneven outing vs. the Rams in Week 2 before spraining both ankles about midway through the 4th quarter. He completed 19 of 30 passes (63%) for 247 yards (8.2 YPA). He threw a dart to WR Zach Pascal for an 8-yard score. And he ran it 5 times for 37 yards.

But Wentz was also picked off on a botched attempt at 1 of those middle TE screens that have become so popular near the goal line. He also took 3 sacks.

Pressure has been the story for Wentz through 2 weeks. Only 5 QBs have been pressured on a higher percentage of their drop backs than Wentz’s 44.6%, according to Pro Football Focus. And he’s completed just 46% of his passes and averaged 5.7 yards per attempt when pressured. The Colts’ banged-up offensive line deserves some of the blame. But Wentz has also brought his bad habit of hanging onto the ball too long with him from Philadelphia to Indianapolis.

Wentz’s availability for Week 3 and beyond is still uncertain. Stay tuned to Shark Bites for updates. But, for now, he looks like just a lower-end QB2 in fantasy football.

Week 1
Wentz was under pressure all day as he saw the 7th highest pressure rate and 4th most total pressures while being sacked 3 times in Week 1. This isn’t ideal for a QB who is coming off foot surgery. The Colts did what they could to help Wentz as they called 6 designed screens and provided the RB with 13 targets on the week. A larger issue for the Colts is a lack of a deep threat without T.Y. Hilton in the lineup. The Colts only attempted 2 passes of 20 or more yards, which will need to change if they want to take pressure off the ground game with additional men in the box.
Heading into Week 2, things aren’t looking up as the Colts will face off against the Rams, who only allowed 216 yards passing on 40 attempts from the Bears last week. It is hard to imagine Wentz and the passing game taking off in Week 2 but in Week 3 against the Titans it might be time to buy.

Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

Wentz set career lows in completion rate (57.4%), yards per attempt (6.0) and QB Rating (72.8) last year. All 3 of those marks ranked 34th among 35 qualifying QBs.
He also recorded a career low and ranked 31st among those 35 QBs in Pro Football Focus passing grade.
Wentz sat 17th at his position in total fantasy points -- 22nd in points per game -- through Week 13.
He was benched in the 3rd quarter of that Week 13 game and didn’t see the field the rest of the way.
The Eagles traded Wentz to the Colts in February in exchange for a 2021 3rd-round pick and a conditional 2nd-rounder in 2022 that will turn into a 1st-rounder if Wentz plays at least 75% of the offensive snaps or plays at least 70% of the snaps and the Colts make the playoffs.
Throughout his 5 years in Philadelphia, Wentz suffered a hairline fracture in his rib (2016), a torn ACL and LCL in his left knee (2017), a stress fracture in his back (2018) and a concussion (2019 playoffs).
Wentz reunites with HC Frank Reich in Indianapolis. Reich was the OC for Wentz’s first 2 seasons in Philly.
As a rookie under Reich in 2016, Wentz threw for 3,782 yards, 16 TDs and 14 INTs. He added 150 and 2 scores on the ground to finish 24th among QBs in fantasy points.
He took a big step forward in 2017, racking up 3,296 yards and 33 TDs through the air -- plus 299 rushing yards -- in 13 games. Wentz ranked 3rd among QBs in fantasy points per game. (He missed the final 3 games of that 2017 season with the torn ACL and LCL.)
Wentz played in 11 games in 2018, finishing 12th at his position in fantasy points per game. He played all 16 games in 2019 and finished QB8.
Wentz joins a Colts team that’s been run-leaning the past 2 years, ranking 27th and 25th in pass rate and 24th and 20th in pass attempts. Those teams were quarterbacked by Jacoby Brissett and then Philip Rivers.
In 2018 -- Reich’s 1st season as HC and with Andrew Luck under center -- Indy finished 7th in pass rate and 2nd in attempts.
We’re projecting the Colts’ 2021 pass rate to settle in between where it was in 2018 and 2019-2020. This offense still figures to center on Jonathan Taylor and the run game.
Wentz will operate behind a strong offensive line in Indianapolis. The Colts return 4 of 5 starters from a unit that ranked 7th in both Pro Football Focus’ pass-blocking grades and adjusted sack rate last year. The team signed longtime-Chief Eric Fisher to replace the retired Anthony Castonzo at LT -- although Fisher might not be ready until October after tearing his Achilles in January.
Better protection is key for Wentz, who ranked 32nd among 35 QBs in PFF passing grade when under pressure last year.
The Colts return 7 of their top 8 target-getters from last season, with TE Trey Burton the only notable departure. Wentz will hopefully also get a healthy season from WR Parris Campbell, who made it through just 1 healthy game last year.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Wentz gets a fresh start in Indianapolis this season but also finds some familiarity. He’ll be reuniting with HC Frank Reich, who was Wentz’s OC for his first 2 NFL seasons in 2016 and 2017.

Wentz finished 3rd among QBs in fantasy points per game in that 2017 season and also scored as a QB1 in 2018 and 2019. So the disastrous 2020 season looks more like an outlier.

A likely run-leaning Colts offense figures to cap Wentz’s fantasy upside a bit. But we wouldn’t be at all surprised if he bounces back and at least brings spot-start fantasy value in 2021.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

The forecast for tonight's Colts-49ers game calls for a 100% chance of rain with winds of 20-30 mph. That's ugly -- and certainly enough to impact the passing and kicking games. We'd try to avoid both of these passing games outside of 49ers WR Deebo Samuel and Colts WR Michael Pittman. You should also stay away from both Ks.

View all Carson Wentz Shark Bites »

Colts QB Carson Wentz (ankles) is active for today’s game vs. the Dolphins. He remained limited in practice all week and still isn’t at 100%. Wentz is a low-end QB2 in fantasy football.

View all Carson Wentz Shark Bites »

Colts QB Carson Wentz (ankles) remained limited in practice all week and is listed as questionable for Sunday's game vs. the Dolphins. He'll start, but this is a reminder that he's still operating at less than 100%.

View all Carson Wentz Shark Bites »

Colts QB Carson Wentz (ankles) is active for today’s game against the Titans. He’ll be playing through sprains to both of his ankles. Expect his mobility to be limited and his accuracy to potentially be affected. Wentz is obviously an extremely shaky fantasy play.

View all Carson Wentz Shark Bites »

Colts QB Carson Wentz will start vs. the Titans today, a source tells ESPN's Chris Mortensen. Wentz reportedly moved around well at Friday's practice -- although he was "heavily taped." It's safe to assume his mobility will be limited today. Wentz is a low-end QB2 in fantasy football.

View all Carson Wentz Shark Bites »

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