Carson Wentz - Fantasy Points Outlook

What You Need to Know:

• Wentz has been traded in 2 consecutive offseasons. The latest move sent 2022 third-rounder and a conditional 2023 third-rounder that could become a 2nd-rounder if Wentz plays 70% of Washington’s offensive snaps. (That’s likely, barring injury.)
• That followed the Eagles moving him for a 2021 third-rounder and a conditional pick that became a 1st-rounder in this year’s draft. So although 2 straight teams decided they didn’t want Wentz anymore, 2 others committed significant draft capital to get him.
• HC Ron Rivera says he believes Wentz will better be able to “sustain” drives and take advantage of the team’s offensive skill players than Taylor Heinicke last year.
• Wentz rebounded last year in Pro Football Focus passing grade and adjusted completion rate vs. 2020. But he still ranked just 21st and 32nd, respectively, in those categories among 38 qualifying QBs.
• Heinicke edged Wentz by 1 percentage point in adjusted completion rate last year and matched him at 6.9 yards per pass attempt.
• In Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel and rookie Jahan Dotson, Washington boasts a (likely) starting trio of wideouts that all run sub-4.45 in the 40-yard dash.
• That could fit particularly well with Wentz, who likes to throw downfield. He has ranked among the top 10 in average depth of target 3 of the past 5 years, including 2 seasons among the top 5. Despite playing with limited WR corps in both Philly and Indy, Wentz has twice ranked among the league’s top 5 in percentage of pass attempts thrown deep (20+ yards downfield).
• Heinicke ranked 8th in that category last year, without Dotson and with Samuel missing nearly the entire year.
• Washington retained pass-catching RB J.D. McKissic in free agency, matching the offer he initially agreed to with the Bills.
• TE Logan Thomas is coming off a Dec. 5 ACL tear, leaving his status to open the season unclear.
• Wentz ranked 16th in pass attempts, 10th in TD passes, 15th among QBs in rushing yards and 14th in total fantasy points last season.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Wentz remains a decent fantasy QB, even as he proves to be a shaky real-life passer. He topped 200 rushing yards for the 3rd straight season last year and has averaged more than 12 rushing yards per game 4 of the past 5 years. (The other found him coming off a double knee ligament tear.) In Washington, Wentz might just get the best WR corps he’s played with to date. (The 2017 championship Eagles sported Alshon Jeffery, Nelson Agholor and Torrey Smith as the top 3 wideouts.) The Commanders’ speed at the position could work well with Wentz’s strong downfield arm. The biggest factor working in favor of his fantasy outlook, though, is a low ADP. As of this writing, FFPC best-ball drafters are taking Wentz just 25th among QBs. His annual points-per-game finishes, dating back from last year:

18th
22nd
14th
14th
3rd
27th