Kirk Cousins - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line:

Signing with the Falcons was a best-case scenario for Cousins. He slides onto a team with young, talented weapons in Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson.

That said, a 36-year old QB coming off an Achilles tear carries a lot of questions. Cousins is not guaranteed to start Week 1. He also may take some time adjusting to a new offense and receivers due to lack of training camp reps.

That risk is baked into Cousins’ mid-QB2 ADP. We have him slotted similarly in our 2024 QB rankings.

If you are one of the last teams to draft a QB, Cousins is an appropriate upside backup with a low-end QB1 ceiling.

What We Learned Last Year:

• Cousins finished as the QB24 in total fantasy points (149.7) and QB6 in points per game (18.7).
• He had five top-10 finishes out of his eight games played. He finished worse than QB12 only twice.
• He missed the final nine games of the season due to a right Achilles tear.
• During the eight weeks he played, Cousins led the league in:
  • Passing TDs (18)
  • TD passes over 50 yards (3)
  • 300+ yard passing games (4)
• He was also second in passing yards (2,231)
• Cousins saw a drastic improvement in his second year in Kevin O’Connell’s offense. He improved in:
  • Completion rate
  • TD rate
  • INT rate
• Cousins’ fantasy output was similar with Justin Jefferson playing (18.26 points per game) vs. when Jefferson was out injured (18.86 points per game)
• Cousins had career bests in:
  • Adjusted Completion Rate (80.5%)
  • Turnover Worthy Play Rate (2.3%)
• But those were coupled with career worsts in:
  • Average target depth (7.7 yards)
  • Big Time Throw Rate (3.0%)
• Cousins played behind a very competent O-line that ranked #2 in Pro Football Focus' pass-blocking grades.
• He had the third-best Pro Football Focus passing grade (85.1) in his career, trailing only 2021 and 2019.

What to Expect in 2024:

• Cousins signed a four-year, $180 million contract with the Falcons this offseason with $100 million guaranteed. His $45 million per year ranks seventh among QBs.
• He will play under HC Raheem Morris and first-time OC and play-caller Zac Robinson.
  • Robinson has been on the Rams’ staff since 2019 under Sean McVay, working as the QB coach and pass game coordinator since 2022.
  • Under Robinson, the Rams averaged 628 passes per season.
• Working back from his Achilles injury, it’s not guaranteed that Cousins will be ready for Week 1.
• The Falcons drafted Michael Penix Jr. at 8th overall to be the heir apparent to Cousins.
• Cousins’ new receiving weapons include:
  • Drake London
  • Kyle Pitts
  • Bijan Robinson
  • Darnell Mooney
  • Rondale Moore
• He should be more supported in the run game. Bijan Robinson (75.1 PFF rushing grade) is a drastic upgrade from Alexander Mattison (70.2).
• Cousins' offensive line will be similar to his time with the Vikings in terms of pass blocking. Last season, the Falcons had a 74.2 pass-blocking grade from PFF, 4th in the NFL. They ranked just behind the Vikings (74.4).
• The Falcons are expected to be pretty good. They lead the NFC South with a 9.5 win total at most sportsbooks.
• This expectation of success is largely due to Cousins joining the team. The Falcons’ Super Bowl odds jumped from +4000 before Cousins to +2800 after he signed.
• Cousins enters his 13th season at age 36. According to our aging curve research, the average QB with Cousins' career produces at least 90% of his peak value at age 36. Most of those QBs, of course, were not coming off Achilles injuries.