Kirk Cousins - Fantasy Points Outlook

What You Need to Know:

• In 2021, Cousins’ 8th season as a full-time starter, he finished as the QB9. He finished at QB11 in 2020.
• Cousins ranked as a top-12 QB 10 times last season.
• He missed only 1 game (Week 17, COVID list). He’s missed only 2 games dating back to 2015.
• Among 21 QBs with 500+ dropbacks, Cousins ranked 4th in PFF passing grade and adjusted completion rate.
• Cousins’ 7.5 YPA dipped from 8.3 and 8.0 over the 2 prior years. All of his other key passing metrics remained stable, though.
• He played behind an O-line that ranked 3rd best in adjust sack rate (4.7%).
• Note that Adam Thielen missed 4 games; Irv Smith missed the entire season with a torn meniscus.
• The ’22 Vikings brought in new HC Kevin O’Connell, formerly the Rams’ OC (but not play-caller). He was Cousins’ QB coach for a time in Washington.
• Here’s what O’Connell said of his offense: “I think we can build an offensive system like we had in L.A. to take advantage of that skill set,” O’Connell said. “I see us being able to build an offense to maximize what he does best, which happens to be what a lot of quarterbacks want to be able to do best, a quarterback-friendly system where they can have an attacking mindset, aggressive mindset.”
• According to ESPN’s Courtney Cronin, the new-look offense will have “a heavy dose of pre-snap motion and movement, reliance on three-receiver sets, a zone run game and play-action concepts.” Essentially — a lot of what the Rams do under Sean McVay.
• When O’Connell held the role of OC from 2020-2021 (Rams), L.A. ranked 21st and 9th in pass rate.
• The Vikings will get Irv Smith back from his knee injury. Of course, they retain a strong top-2 at WR with Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. Thielen does bring some injury/decline risk at 32.
• Dalvin Cook will continue to provide a strong option out of the backfield. While he carries some risk of his own, Cook’s receiving upside is clear. There have already been whispers of an expanded pass-catching role under O’Connell.
• Trade rumors surrounded Cousins over the winter and spring, but he’ll return for year 5 in Minnesota.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Cousins has finished as a QB1 in 3 of his 4 seasons in Minnesota.

That type of upside remains for 2022. We like the hiring of HC Kevin O’Connell and the return of TE Irv Smith, who missed all of last season.

The QB landscape continues to deepen with each passing year, though. And with minimal contributions on the ground, Cousins will need to remain highly efficient in his age 34 season.

At bottom, Cousins should remain a strong matchup-based play — especially for as long as the Jefferson-Thielen duo can stay healthy.