Kyler Murray - Fantasy Points Outlook

What You Need to Know:

• Murray has opened his career with QB8, QB3 and QB10 fantasy finishes.
• He’s averaged the 7th most fantasy points per game among QBs over the past 3 seasons, behind Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Josh Allen and Dak Prescott.
• Murray ranks 3rd among QBs in carries, 2nd in rushing yards and 2nd in rushing TDs over the last 3 seasons.
  • Only Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen have scored more rushing fantasy points than Murray over that span.
• Murray has ranked 7th, 5th and 4th among QBs in carries inside the 10 over the last 3 years.
• Murray has improved his completion rate, adjusted completion rate, yards per attempt, adjusted yards per attempt and Pro Football Focus passing grade in each of his 3 NFL seasons.
• Here’s where Murray ranked in those 5 metrics among 31 qualifying QBs last year:
  • Completion rate - 2nd
  • Adjusted completion rate - 6th
  • Yards per attempt - 4th
  • Adjusted yards per attempt - 8th
  • PFF passing grade - 3rd
• Murray was especially excellent throwing deep last year. He ranked 1st in PFF grade and 2nd in adjusted completion rate on passes 20+ yards downfield.
  • Murray ranked 5th and 9th in PFF’s deep passing grades in his first 2 seasons.
• Murray missed 3 games last year with a left ankle sprain. He played all 16 games the previous 2 seasons but dealt with hamstring, shoulder and leg injuries.
• The Cardinals lost WR Christian Kirk and RB Chase Edmonds in free agency this offseason.
  • Those 2 combined for 26.4% of Arizona’s targets, 28.9% of the receptions, 28.0% of the receiving yards and 18.5% of the receiving TDs last year.
• Murray will also be without WR DeAndre Hopkins for the first 6 games of the season after he was suspended for violating the league’s performance-enhancing drug policy.
• The Cardinals return RB James Conner, WRs Rondale Moore and A.J. Green and TE Zach Ertz.
• They swung a trade during the 1st round of this spring’s draft for WR Marquise Brown.
  • Murray and Brown played together at Oklahoma in 2017 and 2018. Brown posted 57-1,095-7 and 75-1,318-10 lines those 2 years.
  • Brown’s speed should be a nice fit with Murray’s deep-ball prowess.
• HC Kliff Kingsbury returns for his 4th season with Murray and the Cardinals.
  • Kingsbury has been a pass-leaning play caller, with Arizona ranking 5th, 12th and 4th situation-neutral pass rate over the last 3 years.
• The 2021 Cardinals ranked 16th in PFF’s pass-blocking grades and 15th in Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Sack Rate.
  • The only significant addition Arizona made on the line this offseason was G Will Hernandez, who ranked 46th among 68 qualifiers in PFF’s 2021 pass-blocking grades.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Murray has finished as a top 10 fantasy QB in each of his first 3 NFL seasons, averaging the 7th most points per game at the position over that stretch. He’s been 1 of the most productive rushing QBs in the league and has consistently improved as a passer. He turns just 25 in August.

Losing WR DeAndre Hopkins to a PED suspension for the first 6 games of the season hurts. But the Cardinals traded for Murray’s former college teammate, Marquise Brown, and return Rondale Moore, A.J. Green, Zach Ertz and James Conner. There’s plenty of firepower here.

Murray should be 1 of the first 5 QBs off the board in fantasy drafts. He’s 1 of a handful of guys with the potential to lead the position in fantasy points.