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Kyler Murray - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Kyler Murray
ARI

QB ARI

#3 Quarterback

437 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 12
Experience: 2 Yr(s)
Age: 24
Height: 5'10"
Weight: 207
40 Time: 4.40

Weekly Outlook

3d Projection

Med Floor

19.7

DS Projection

25.3

Consensus

38 other sites
27

Med Ceiling

32.1

Rest of
Season

25.6

Week 8 Projections
Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
272 2.2 0.7 18 25.3
Weekly Writeup
Murray has finished as a top 9 fantasy QB in 5 of 7 weeks to open the season. He has a good chance to add to that tally in Thursday night's home game vs. Green Bay's 25th-ranked QB defense.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
275 1.8 0.8 30 25.6
Week 5
Murray did not have the game many expected this week. He completed 22 of 31 passes for 239 yards and 1 TD. That TD came late in the contest when DeAndre Hopkins made an incredible grab. Murray added just 1 yard on his 7 carries.

Murray appeared to be hampered in this contest. His throws lacked the zip he has displayed in the past, including a throw late to DeAndre Hopkins that was underthrown by 10 yards. He was constantly getting medical attention whenever he was on the sideline.

It's certainly worth monitoring going forward. We saw a similar situation play out last year when Murray dealt with a shoulder injury down the stretch. In the 10 games prior to his injury in 2020, he averaged 264.4 passing yards and 1.9 TDs on a 68.3% completion rate and 7.5 yards per attempt. In the 5 games post-injury, he averaged 248 passing yards and 1.4 TDs on a 65.0% completion rate and 6.4 yards per attempt.

Murray’s rushing production also sunk from 9.2 carries, 61.9 yards and 1 TDs per game pre-injury to 7.8 carries, 39.4 yards and .2 TDs post-injury. He led all QBs in fantasy points per game over those first 10 and ranked just 12th over the final 5.

It may not be the worst idea to explore trades with Murray if you can get a QB you feel good about plus an elite option.
Week 4
It wasn’t his biggest fantasy outing, but Murray was awesome in the Week 4 win over the Rams. He was accurate as a passer, a magician in the pocket and as electric as ever as a runner.

Murray finished 24 of 32 (75%) for 268 yards (8.4 YPA), 2 TDs and 0 INTs. He added 39 yards on 6 carries, including a ridiculous 18-yard run to pick up a 3rd and 16 when Murray beat the angle of 3 different Rams defenders.

Murray finished QB10 in fantasy points on the week. He’s been top 14 in all 4 weeks to open the season and sits 2nd at his position in total fantasy points, just behind Patrick Mahomes. It’ll be a good battle between those 2 all year.
Week 2
Arizona’s QB looks poised to keep producing the way he was before injuring his left shoulder last season.

Murray topped 30 fantasy points for the 2nd straight game in Sunday’s narrow win over Minnesota. He threw for 400 yards, with TDs to DeAndre Hopkins, Rondale Moore and A.J. Green. Murray spread his 36 pass attempts around, targeting 6 players at least 4 times with no one exceeding 8.

Murray did only slightly more on the ground than in the opener, gaining 31 yards vs. 20 on an identical 5 carries. He did find the end zone from 12 yards out in this game.

Murray has opened with a pair of lackluster secondaries, but Week 3 at Jacksonville brings another. Of course, the QB’s combo of rushing and passing -- plus enviable surrounding talent -- will make him tough to dislike in any matchups.
Week 1
Murray completed 21/32 passes for 289 yards and 4 TDs. The throw of the game came when he found Christian Kirk in the corner of the end zone on a high arcing attempt that could not have been put any more on target. He also displayed his rushing ability, adding another 20 yards and a TD on the ground. There were other opportunities to run but Murray kept his eyes down field for big play opportunities, a la Russell Wilson. There was also a bevy of penalties that negated yards both on the ground and in the air. Murray looked every bit the part of a player that could be the overall QB1 in fantasy this season. He has a bevy of weapons to utilize in an offense that took strides in Week 1. Next up is a fine home matchup against the Vikings.

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Murray finished 2nd among QBs in fantasy points last season, behind only Buffalo’s Josh Allen.
  • That followed a 2019 season that saw Murray score the 5th most fantasy points by a rookie QB in NFL history. He ranked 9th at his position in fantasy points that year.
  • Murray improved his pass production across the board from 2019 to 2020: From 3,722 yards and 20 TDs on a 64.4% completion rate and 6.9 yards per attempt to 3,971 yards and 26 TDs on a 67.4% completion rate and 7.1 yards per attempt.
  • He ranked 13th in passing yards and 12th in TDs last year.
  • Among 30 QBs with 300+ attempts last year, Murray finished 10th in completion rate, 21st in yards per attempt and 14th in Pro Football Focus passing grade.
  • It’s been his legs that have made him such a fantasy monster.
    • Murray ran 93 times for 544 yards and 4 TDs as a rookie -- all top 4 marks among QBs.
    • Then he tallied 133 carries, 819 yards and 11 scores last year -- all top 3 marks.
    • His 147.9 fantasy points via rushing production last year led all QBs.
  • Murray’s 2020 season likely would have been even bigger if not for a Week 11 shoulder injury. He didn’t miss any time with that injury, but his production declined.
    • In 10 games prior to the injury, Murray averaged 264.4 passing yards and 1.9 TDs on a 68.3% completion rate and 7.5 yards per attempt. In 5 games after, he averaged 248 passing yards and 1.4 TDs on a 65.0% completion rate and 6.4 yards per attempt.
    • Murray’s rushing production also sunk from 9.2 carries, 61.9 yards and 1 TDs per game pre-injury to 7.8 carries, 39.4 yards and .2 TDs post-injury.
    • He led all QBs in fantasy points per game over those first 10. He ranked just 12th over the final 5.
  • HC Kliff Kingsbury is back for his 3rd season alongside Murray this year. The Cardinals have been a fast-paced offense in their first 2 seasons together, ranking 4th and 1st in situation-neutral pace. After finishing just 22nd in offensive plays in 2019, they climbed to 4th last year.
  • WRs DeAndre Hopkins and Christian Kirk, who finished top 2 on the team last year with 160 and 79 targets, are back for 2021. WR Larry Fitzgerald, who ranked 3rd with 72 targets, has not been re-signed as of early June. The soon-to-be 38-year-old might retire.
  • Arizona signed WR A.J. Green to a 1-year $6 million deal in free agency. The 33-year-old looked out of gas in Cincinnati last year, ranking near the bottom of the league in yards per route run and Pro Football Focus’ receiving grades. We’ll see if the change of scenery leads to a bounce-back season.
  • The Cardinals also used the 49th overall pick of this spring’s draft on WR Rondale Moore. The Purdue product is just 5’7 and had trouble staying healthy in college. But he’s a freak athlete and 1 of the better after-catch receivers to enter the NFL in recent memory. That makes him a nice fit in this offense.
  • At RB, Arizona lost Kenyan Drake in free agency. He caught just 25 of 31 targets for 137 yards last year.
  • The Cardinals added former Steelers RB James Conner, who has 124 catches in 36 games over the past 3 seasons.
  • And they return RB Chase Edmonds, who ranked 4th on the team in targets (67), 3rd in catches (53) and 5th in receiving yards (402) last year.
  • The Cardinals also upgraded the offensive line by trading a 3rd-round pick to Vegas for C Rodney Hudson, who ranked 10th among 34 qualifying Cs in PFF’s 2020 pass-blocking grades. That’s a big improvement over last year’s starter, Mason Cole, who ranked 32nd.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Murray has opened his NFL career by scoring the 5th most fantasy points by a rookie QB in NFL history and then finishing as QB2 last year. His 2020 campaign likely would have been even bigger had he not been slowed by a shoulder injury late in the year.

He’s back in the same offense under HC Kliff Kingsbury for 2021. And stud WR DeAndre Hopkins returns for his 2nd season in Arizona. We’ll see what the Cardinals get from veteran WR A.J. Green and rookie WR Rondale Moore.

It’s Murray’s elite rushing ability that makes him a safe bet for another top-5 fantasy finish with a ceiling that climbs to the top of the position.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Cardinals HC Kliff Kingsbury tested positive for COVID and will miss Sunday's game vs. the Browns. QB coach Cam Turner is also out after testing positive. Kingsbury is an offensive-minded coach and Arizona's play caller, so it's notable news for QB Kyler Murray and the rest of this offense. We're not adjusting our projections for the Cardinals offense, but the situation adds downside risk.

View all Kyler Murray Shark Bites »

Cardinals QB Kyler Murray injured his right ankle early in Sunday's game against the Rams. It's unclear if this is the same injury that had him on this week's injury report. Murray headed back to the locker room and is officially questionable to return.

Update: Murray re-entered in the 4th quarter, with Arizona down 18-7.

View all Kyler Murray Shark Bites »

Cardinals QB Kyler Murray (leg) put in a full week of practice and isn’t listed on the final injury report. There’s still a chance his rushing is limited this weekend, and the passing matchup is a tough one vs. the Rams. It leaves Murray as a lower-end QB1 for Week 17.

View all Kyler Murray Shark Bites »

Cardinals QB Kyler Murray (leg) said Wednesday that he's "good" and expects to play vs. the Rams this weekend. We still don't have any details on his leg injury, but there's a chance it'll limit his rushing ability. And the passing matchup is brutal, leaving Murray as just a borderline QB1 for Week 17.

View all Kyler Murray Shark Bites »

Cardinals QB Kyler Murray's status for Sunday's finale against the Rams is "uncertain" because of the lower-leg injury he sustained late in Saturday's loss to the 49ers, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. If Murray can't go, Chris Streveler would start for Arizona in a game with playoff ramifications for both teams. We'll be watching Murray's status throughout the week.

Update: Arizona HC Kliff Kingsbury said he's "hopeful" Murray will play, according to Kyle Odegard of the team website.

View all Kyler Murray Shark Bites »

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