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Murray lands in an ideal rebound spot with Kevin O’Connell calling plays and Minnesota supplying proven playmakers. The passing volume might not spike, but Murray’s history shows he can add fantasy value on the ground. He’s 11th in our QB rankings, making him a value pick at ADP.
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A foot injury limited Murray to only five starts. That small sample produced 962 yards, 6 TDs, and 3 INTs. He added 173 yards and 1 score on the ground.
In four full games, he finished QB16, QB22, QB16, and QB16. His 19.0 fantasy points per game ranked 20th.
Murray averaged 32.5 pass attempts in his complete games. That volume is right in line with his numbers from 2024 (31.8) and 2023 (33.5).
Murray’s aggressiveness dipped slightly, with his 8.1% deep throw rate trailing his 10.0% mark in 2024 and 10.1% in 2023.
The bright spot came on the ground: 3.75 scrambles per game, up from 2.35 in 2024 and 2.0 in 2023 after an injury-shortened 2022. More on that in the Injury History & Durability section below.
Among 42 QBs with 150+ attempts, Kyler ranked:
Murray’s completion rate set a career high, improving from 74.9% in 2024 and 73.5% in 2023. But that was helped by a career-low 6.3-yard aDOT, fourth-lowest among QBs.
His 6.0 yards per attempt also marked a career low, although efficiency has never been a strength with a career 6.9 YPA. (The league average in 2025 was 7.0.)
Arizona’s O-line ranked 21st in ESPN pass-block win rate and 27th in Pro Football Focus pass-blocking grade.
Murray played all four of his complete games alongside Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr., but that stretch came before Michael Wilson’s late-season emergence. Wilson managed just 6 catches for 36 yards over the first month of the season.
Murray left Week 5 with a mid-foot sprain and missed the final 12 games.
He played all 17 games in 2024 after an ACL tear cost him the end of 2022 and kept him out until Week 10 the following season.
The Cardinals released Murray in early March, and he joined the Vikings on a one-year deal less than two weeks later.
In mid-August, Murray was named the starter over J.J. McCarthy. No surprise there: Last year, McCarthy ranked 33rd among 42 qualifiers in adjusted completion rate and 40th in catchable throw rate.
If Murray falters, it won’t stem from a lack of supporting talent.
The Vikings return Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison after a QB-driven dip in production. In 2024, that duo accounted for 49% of the targets, 45.6% of the catches, 54.9% of the receiving yards, and 54.2% of the receiving TDs.
Jauan Jennings replaces Jalen Nailor as the No. 3 WR. He led the 49ers in receiving yards in consecutive seasons and brings proven value in contested situations, leading all pass catchers with 39 contested catches on a strong 58.2% catch rate over the past two seasons.
T.J. Hockenson returns for his age-29 season. He recorded career lows in catches and yards per game last season, but an awful QB situation made him tough to fairly evaluate.
The O-line looks like a wild card after finishing 14th in PFF pass-blocking grade but just 25th in ESPN pass-block win rate and 32nd in adjusted sack rate last year.
Four of five starters return. The key here will be getting a full season from LT Christian Darrisaw, who made only 10 appearances in 2025 while dealing with the lingering effects of a 2024 ACL tear.
This group will also replace veteran C Ryan Kelly, likely with Blake Brandel. Kelly ranked third among 45 qualifying centers in PFF pass-blocking grade; Brandel finished 15th.
Overall, Murray gets a favorable supporting cast, with the coaching staff strengthening his outlook.
You only need to look back two seasons to see what HC Kevin O’Connell can get out of a veteran QB.
He helped steer pre-2024 bust Sam Darnold to a QB7 finish in total fantasy points. Darnold got there with a 6.4% TD rate, fifth-highest among qualifiers and well above Murray’s career high of 5.0%. But Darnold also didn’t add much as a rusher: 212 yards and a score.
The Vikings finished 20th in pass rate with Darnold and 13th last year with the disastrous QB situation. That followed seasons at fifth and sixth in pass rate, mostly under Kirk Cousins.
Our projections have the Vikings at a 55.4% pass rate, in part because Murray’s rushing volume shifts some of his dropbacks to the ground. It doesn’t lower his ceiling so much as change where the points come from.
O’Connell also has a history of leaning pass in scoring situations.
Pass Rate Inside 20 Yard-line | Pass Rate Inside 10 Yard-line | |
2022 | second | eighth |
2023 | first | second |
2024 | fifth | fifth |
2025 | third | first |
Murray probably isn’t getting back to his 2020 rushing peak, when he reached 819 yards and 11 TDs. But he doesn’t need that to matter in fantasy, having twice reached 500 rushing yards and 5 scores in other seasons. That level of rushing would give him the look of a top-10 fantasy QB.
Murray’s passing-TD ceiling gets a boost from Minnesota’s WR depth and O’Connell’s history of leaning pass near the goal line.
Murray will start Week 1 for a contending team. But the presence of McCarthy -- a former Round 1 pick -- keeps open the possibility that Murray falls short of 17 games.
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Kyler Murray Cleared To Start Week 3
Kyler Murray Cleared To Start Week 3
Vikings QB Kyler Murray has cleared concussion protocol and will start Week 3's game against the Buccaneers, HC Kevin O'Connell said Monday. Murray played just 11 snaps in the opener before exiting with the head injury. He'll return for a plus matchup against a Buccaneers defense that just made QB Deshaun Watson look decent. Murray will be a risk/reward QB1 play in Week 3 fantasy lineups.
Kyler Murray Out For Week 2
Kyler Murray Out For Week 2
Vikings QB Kyler Murray (concussion) is out for Sunday's game vs. the Bears. He was limited in practice this week and should have a good chance to be cleared for Week 3. QB Carson Wentz gets the start this weekend. The veteran averaged 243 yards, 1.2 TDs, and 1.0 INTs across five starts for Minnesota last year. Despite the excellent matchup against Chicago, Wentz is only in play in 2-QB and superflex leagues.
Kyler Murray Still Limited Thursday
Kyler Murray Still Limited Thursday
Vikings QB Kyler Murray (concussion) remained limited in Thursday's practice. He remains more likely than not to miss this weekend's game vs. the Bears, but we'll see what Murray does in Friday's practice and how he's listed on the final injury report. QB Carson Wentz will start if Murray isn't cleared by Sunday.
Kyler Murray Gets In Limited Practice Wednesday
Kyler Murray Gets In Limited Practice Wednesday
Vikings QB Kyler Murray (concussion) got in a limited practice on Wednesday. He's made some progress through the protocol and at least has a chance to be cleared for this weekend's game vs. the Bears. We'll keep tabs on his status over the next few days, but fantasy managers still shouldn't plan on having Murray for Week 2 lineups.
Kyler Murray Leaves After Hit To Head
Kyler Murray Leaves After Hit To Head
Vikings QB Kyler Murray took a hit to the head in the first quarter of Sunday's game vs. the Packers. He appeared to be concussed and might have also suffered a neck injury. We'll update his status when we know more, but don't expect to see Murray back today. QB Carson Wentz is Minnesota's backup this week, with QB J.J. McCarthy the emergency third QB.
Update: Murray has been ruled out with a concussion. It's his first documented concussion.
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