Kyler Murray - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Murray ranked sixth among QBs in fantasy points per game over the final nine weeks of last season. That’s even more impressive when you consider that he was returning from a December 2022 ACL tear and working in a brand new offense.

Murray has enjoyed a healthy 2023 offseason, is back in OC Drew Petzing’s offense, and got a major weaponry upgrade with the arrival of stud rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr.

He’s a good bet for top-12 fantasy production with upside into the top-5 QBs.

What We Learned Last Year

• Murray missed the first nine games of last season working back from his December 2022 ACL tear.
• He ranked eighth among QBs in total fantasy points from Week 10 on and sixth in fantasy points per game.
• Murray finished as a top-12 fantasy QB in four of his eight outings, including a pair of top-six finishes.
• Despite coming off that serious knee injury, Murray racked up 44 carries for 244 yards and three TDs. All three marks ranked top-six among QBs over the final nine weeks of last season.
  • Murray went from 26.5 rushing yards per game in four outings before his Week 14 bye to 34.5 rushing yards per game in four outings post-bye.
• He ranked just 21st among 30 qualifying QBs in Pro Football Focus passing grade.
• Murray’s 6.7 yards per pass attempt was the second-lowest mark of his five-year career, ahead of only his 6.1 in 2022. It ranked 21st among 30 qualifiers.
• Murray also underwhelmed in the TD department, with a 3.7% TD rate that ranked 20th among 30 qualifiers.
• He was playing in a new offense under first-time OC Drew Petzing.
• Murray only had a healthy WR Marquise Brown for three of his eight games. WR Michael Wilson missed three games with Murray. Greg Dortch led Cardinals WRs in targets over Murray’s eight games.
• Here’s where Murray ranked in fantasy points per game in his first four seasons:
  • 2019: 11th
  • 2020: 4th
  • 2021: 5th
  • 2022: 10th
• Murray ranks fifth among QBs in fantasy points per game since arriving in 2019 (behind Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, and Dak Prescott).

What to Expect in 2024

• Murray will be back in the same offense under OC Drew Petzing. It’ll be his first healthy offseason in the system after spending last offseason rehabbing his torn ACL.
• WR Marquise Brown left in free agency, but the Cardinals spent the fourth overall pick of this year’s draft on WR Marvin Harrison Jr. The 6’3, 209-pounder topped 1,200 receiving yards with 14 TDs in each of his final two seasons at Ohio State. He’s one of the cleanest WR prospects to arrive in recent memory and should immediately be an upgrade over Brown as Murray’s No. 1 WR.
• The Cardinals also added WR Zay Jones this offseason. He struggled with injuries last year but caught 82 balls for 823 yards in 2022.
• RB James Conner, WR Michael Wilson, WR Greg Dortch, and TE Trey McBride return from last year’s squad. McBride is coming off a breakout season, tallying 825 yards and ranking second among 33 qualifying TEs in yards per route run.
• Murray should again add lots of fantasy value with his legs. He’s averaged over 30 rushing yards per game in all five of his NFL seasons. His career 37.7 rushing yards per game ranks fourth among QBs since 2019.
• The 2023 Cardinals ranked:
  • 17th in Pro Football Focus pass-blocking grade
  • 19th in ESPN’s pass-block win rate
• OT Paris Johnson, C Hjalte Froholdt, and G Will Hernandez return as projected starters. Johnson played RT last year but is expected to move to LT this season. He ranked 48th among 73 qualifying OTs in Pro Football Focus’ 2023 pass-blocking grades but is a candidate to take a step forward this year after going sixth overall in last year’s draft.
• The Cardinals signed OT Jonah Williams to a two-year, $30 million deal. He ranked 60th in PFF pass-blocking grades last season.
• Free-agent signee Evan Brown is expected to start at the other guard spot. He’s been a below-average pass blocker for the Lions and Seahawks over the last two seasons.