Kyler Murray Fantasy Overview

Production & Fantasy Finishes

A foot injury limited Murray to only five starts. That small sample produced 962 yards, 6 TDs, and 3 INTs. He added 173 yards and 1 score on the ground.

In four full games, he finished QB16, QB22, QB16, and QB16. His 19.0 fantasy points per game ranked 20th.

Usage & Role

Murray averaged 32.5 pass attempts in his complete games. That volume is right in line with his numbers from 2024 (31.8) and 2023 (33.5).

Murray’s aggressiveness dipped slightly, with his 8.1% deep throw rate trailing his 10.0% mark in 2024 and 10.1% in 2023.

The bright spot came on the ground: 3.75 scrambles per game, up from 2.35 in 2024 and 2.0 in 2023 after an injury-shortened 2022. More on that in the Injury History & Durability section below.

Efficiency & Regression

Among 42 QBs with 150+ attempts, Kyler ranked:

• fifth in adjusted completion rate
• 13th in catchable throw rate
• 24th in completion rate over expected
• 30th in fantasy points per dropback
• 37th in yards per attempt

Murray’s completion rate set a career high, improving from 74.9% in 2024 and 73.5% in 2023. But that was helped by a career-low 6.3-yard aDOT, fourth-lowest among QBs.

His 6.0 yards per attempt also marked a career low, although efficiency has never been a strength with a career 6.9 YPA. (The league average in 2025 was 7.0.)

Offensive Context

Arizona’s O-line ranked 21st in ESPN pass-block win rate and 27th in Pro Football Focus pass-blocking grade.

Murray played all four of his complete games alongside Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr., but that stretch came before Michael Wilson’s late-season emergence. Wilson managed just 6 catches for 36 yards over the first month of the season.

Injury History & Durability

Murray left Week 5 with a mid-foot sprain and missed the final 12 games.

He played all 17 games in 2024 after an ACL tear cost him the end of 2022 and kept him out until Week 10 the following season.

Projected Role & Competition

The Cardinals released Murray in early March, and he joined the Vikings on a one-year deal less than two weeks later.

Minnesota gives Murray a chance to start a full season, and the competition doesn’t look daunting.

Primary 2025 starter J.J. McCarthy ranked 33rd among 42 qualifiers in adjusted completion rate and 40th in catchable throw rate, so Murray’s arrival indicates the Vikings weren’t satisfied.

Murray hasn’t been officially announced as the starter, but that’ll likely come during training camp. After watching practice in May, ESPN’s longtime Vikings beat writer Kevin Seifert said the “gap between the two quarterbacks was not close.”

Supporting Cast

If Murray falters, it won’t stem from a lack of supporting talent.

The Vikings return Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison after a QB-driven dip in production. In 2024, that duo accounted for 49% of the targets, 45.6% of the catches, 54.9% of the receiving yards, and 54.2% of the receiving TDs.

Jauan Jennings replaces Jalen Nailor as the No. 3 WR. He led the 49ers in receiving yards in consecutive seasons and brings proven value in contested situations, leading all pass catchers with 39 contested catches on a strong 58.2% catch rate over the past two seasons.

T.J. Hockenson returns for his age-29 season. He recorded career lows in catches and yards per game last season, but an awful QB situation made him tough to fairly evaluate.

The O-line looks like a wild card after finishing 14th in PFF pass-blocking grade but just 25th in ESPN pass-block win rate and 32nd in adjusted sack rate last year.

Four of five starters return. The key here will be getting a full season from LT Christian Darrisaw, who made only 10 appearances in 2025 while dealing with the lingering effects of a 2024 ACL tear.

This group will also replace veteran C Ryan Kelly, likely with Blake Brandel. Kelly ranked third among 45 qualifying centers in PFF pass-blocking grade; Brandel finished 15th.

Overall, Murray gets a favorable supporting cast, with the coaching staff strengthening his outlook.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

You only need to look back two seasons to see what HC Kevin O’Connell can get out of a veteran QB.

He helped steer pre-2024 bust Sam Darnold to a QB7 finish in total fantasy points. Darnold got there with a 6.4% TD rate, fifth-highest among qualifiers and well above Murray’s career high of 5.0%. But Darnold also didn’t add much as a rusher: 212 yards and a score.

The Vikings finished 20th in pass rate with Darnold and 13th last year with the disastrous QB situation. That followed seasons at fifth and sixth in pass rate, mostly under Kirk Cousins.

Our projections have the Vikings at a 55.4% pass rate, in part because Murray’s rushing volume shifts some of his dropbacks to the ground. It doesn’t lower his ceiling so much as change where the points come from.

O’Connell also has a history of leaning pass in scoring situations.

Paths to Ceiling

Murray probably isn’t getting back to his 2020 rushing peak, when he reached 819 yards and 11 TDs. But he doesn’t need that to matter in fantasy, having twice reached 500 rushing yards and 5 scores in other seasons. That level of rushing would give him the look of a top-10 fantasy QB.

Murray’s passing-TD ceiling gets a boost from Minnesota’s WR depth and O’Connell’s history of leaning pass near the goal line.

Risk Factors

Murray is expected to start Week 1 and hold the job for a contending team. But the presence of McCarthy -- a former Round 1 pick -- keeps open the possibility that Murray falls short of 17 games.